I’ll say the sequel is worse than the original. This flick should be directed to people 6 years younger than the original one since most teens have seen the original already. But on the other hand, people of 7 years of age might have difficulty with some words.
I don’t think stupid, but rather willfully deceptive. Does that guy have a personal agenda or opinion that he is justifying or simply being a shill or sock-puppet? Does it even matter? The end result is the same, there will be no changing his published opinion through appeal to logic. But, then, you’re probably even more familiar with this online personality than I. What do you do? Smile nicely while he rants and then punch him in the kidneys as he walks away or go full on folding chair to the head in the middle of the ring style (metaphorically)?
It’s important that every time anyone in denial refers to this as ‘the leaked IPCC report’, or, ‘the leaked AR5′, they’re told very firmly that these are just drafts and that the real AR5 will not be available until September 2013. I completely agree that it’s best not to be cajoled into discussing the supposed content.
Second: look out next September for those in denial looking for differences between these drafts and the published AR5, and trying to use them to show… well, anything really that diverts attention away from the fact that there’s even more evidence to indicate that the world is warming and it’s caused by humans.
Comment by Edward Greisch — 14 Dec 2012 @ 10:35 PM
The IPCC is way too noble to deal with a petulant journalist seeking equal “air time” even before AR5 report is suppose to be published. Distorted science is nothing new, seeking contrarian attention neither. I believe most scientists too humble to be part of a PR campaign, the reviewing process IPCC offers has no equivalent, it comes on schedules irregardless of current events, it doesn’t fill the interims exploited by false skeptics. However extreme weather and climate events do all the publicity, the full thrust of a mega event is more truthful and powerful than any person or publication. Yet most scientists have a bad sense of timing in explaining these extremes to a more attentive audience more often looking elsewhere. This said, I applaud Gavin not mentioning any names about this recent garbage anti-science, contrarian media relishes being talked about, especially by those they hate the most. But I I wont mind reading again, and receiving the latest findings on cosmic rays. Better informed we become less susceptible for being fooled. Since the topic is brought up again, wiser to explain and let the spotlight contrarians enjoy the limelight from equal minded crowd, while the larger one gets a good science lecture.
Tory MP running Corby campaign ‘backed rival in anti-windfarm plot’
• Covert footage reveals MP’s links to independent candidate
• Energy minister denies collusion with anti-wind campaigner
Chris Heaton-Harris, who is campaign manager for the Tories in Corby, was recorded saying he encouraged an anti-wind farm candidate to join the election race against the Tories, adding: “Please don’t tell anybody ever.”
Wayne Davidson, well said. But this crowd appears to be resistant to evidence, and their dupes unwilling and unable to face the facts (they’re too busy getting through the day to understand the difference between science and PR).
If anybody is unaqquainted about what kind a personality Alec Rawls is, I suggest they take a look at this blog highlighting his greatest thoughts. My personal favourite is his hypothesis that there is a great MSM-US government-Islamo-fascist conspiracy in play which has turned the Ground Zero memorial into a covert mosque to mock the victims:
Redesigned Flight 93 memorial still an Islamo-fascist shrine
I have no doubt that this gentleman honestly believes climate scientists (along with the feminazis and those who faked the moon landing, of course) to be part of this same grand conspiracy, too. Perhaps it´s time to restrict the access to being an “IPCC expert reviewer”, anyone?
Comment by Christoffer Bugge Harder — 15 Dec 2012 @ 10:25 AM
Checking 20 years of projections by the foremost global climate science panel against reality finds that the group has consistently underestimated the pace and impacts of climate change – with severe consequences for the public it is tasked to inform [...]
As the latest round of United Nations climate talks in Doha wrap up this week, climate experts warn that the IPCC’s failure to adequately project the threats that rising global carbon emissions represent has serious consequences: The IPCC’s overly conservative reading of the science, they say, means governments and the public could be blindsided by the rapid onset of the flooding, extreme storms, drought, and other impacts associated with catastrophic global warming.
“We’re underestimating the fact that climate change is rearing its head,” said Kevin Trenberth, head of the climate analysis section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and a lead author of key sections of the 2001 and 2007 IPCC reports. “And we’re underestimating the role of humans, and this means we’re underestimating what it means for the future and what we should be planning for.”
I saw the exchange between Paul Nurse and Dellingpole in the BBC special years ago called Science Under Attack. It was clear he lacked journalistic ethics and an understanding of the subject matter. He’s the type of person we are best just blinking at leaving out of the conversation.
Comment by Unsettled Scientist — 15 Dec 2012 @ 4:01 PM
Hmm. This whole fuss bemuses me.
But, it seems to me that the IPCC process is hampered by its lack of openness. Sharing drafts would be an inconvenience and such drafts would be subject to misinterpretation. On the other hand,refusing to share drafts or making a big deal of leaked drafts, adds to the credibility of those who assert that the process is flawed (including those who believe that the theory of AGW was concocted by a secret cabal of hundreds or thousands of highly-paid /sarc academics bent on imposing a one-world government complete with black helicopters.)
A group that develops standards for wireless (3GPP) makes their drafts and comments public relatively soon after they are created (at least in most cases). See 3gpp.org. Billions are spent on systems built according to those standards—it is a high-stakes game. But, they have opted for openness. I think their predecessor organizations (GSM and ETSI) did not start out so open but they changed.
Admittedly, wireless standardization is of interest to only a few. But, it seem to me that the bigger the audience and the more important the issue, the more that should be invested in enhancing credibility.
I think the best response to general questions about the leak is “Meh. Whatever. It’s just a draft man.” For specific questions, the response should depend on the question.
Leaving aside the embarrassingly foolish Rawls rant, it seems to me that the quoted text in Chapter 7 was ambiguous enough to lend itself to the misinterpretation that GCRs might constitute a powerful mechanism for amplifying solar irradiance effects on global temperature. A glance at the cited references, however, shows this not to be the case. I was particularly intrigued by the Dengel et al paper, which reported a positive correlation between GCR flux and tree rings, the opposite of what might be expected if GCRs simply caused cooling. The authors speculated, tentatively, that the observation might reflect a light scattering effect of GCRs, perhaps related to cloudiness, that stimulated photosynthesis. Whether real or not, the phenomenon is clearly in the wrong direction from the Rawls/Delingpole point of view.
20, Susan, ever more the reason to have another lecture on Solar Radiation. Denialists recruit new not so curious minds to their fold all the time. So the response to their PR action would be more science. Every time they bring up a subject all half baked and dumbed up, a response would be a readily available science lecture contradicting said misinformation all without vaunting the prowess of the fake skeptic. This leaves the desired goal of reaching a better informed public. It is simply astounding that solar cycle 24 having the least CME’s or sun spots , “NASA predicts that solar cycle 24 will peak in early or mid 2013 with about 59 sunspots. This would make it the least active cycle in the past one hundred years.[”
That this cycle coincides with the strongest warming period in the same 100 years. The other way around would be that there should be over all more clouds world wide because cosmic rays are less deflected. This would undoubtably create a signal of much warmer winters and much colder and wetter summers. Last I looked a 50% score is not very convincing since we do have warmer winters, but in some places super hot and dry summers.
Having an expert claim that the sun is having an effect or not is not enough. Must engage the public to think and therefore become wiser with greater details one can only get from a good science presentation.
This period doesn’t correspond to the strongest warming period in the last 100 years. It corresponds with the end of that period and in a time a generally flattening temperature trend.
Whether the flattening is a temporary hiatus in warming or a much longer flat trend we shall have to wait to see.
[Response:For heaven's sake, not this silliness again.
Read here, and here and here for three different examples of clear explanations as to why the claim of a "no warming in the last xx years" is simply wrong.--eric]
I suspect your comment to Jim Cross #32 should also be aimed at the BBC – I was told the presenter said just what Jim said on their Breakfast programme recently. I’m doing my best with TweetsToTheBeeb but I’m an amateur with no voice – except when I corner the important people in person.
The Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change (now ex SoS) told me he read your blog. I’m sure other influential people do too. Why don’t you take on the BBC and shame them into telling the truth. You have the standing to do it. A blog posting on the BBC would have some influence.
I find this all rather daft. The purpose of the IPCC report (particularly WG1) is to be a fair reflection of the current state of the science, not some big reveal. Given its political sensitivities, I understand the need to keep it under wraps during the draft stage, but there should be no surprises in there (if there were, now that would be news).
The GCR theories have been around for a long time now, as any seasoned denialist should know, so there’s nothing sensational about its mention as a fringe theory that can be discounted. As with most high-profile climate papers nowadays, part of the drafting process will inevitably (and somewhat regrettably) include going through and making sure each and every sentence is as quote-mine-proof as possible. That bit obviously needs more work and the deniers will probably cry foul when it gets revised.
The only bit that has me open-mouthed is how the self-appointed “interpreter of interpretations” Delingpole going off on one (again), when he must surely realise by now that he is almost certainly wrong and will look like a complete idiot (again).
I am not claiming anything of the sort you suggest. I am responding to #31′s statement that the current low solar cycle corresponds to the “strongest warming in the same 100 years.”
The current solar cycle began three years ago. Are you suggesting that the warming of the last three years is the strongest warming in the last 100 years? The last three years may have been relatively “hot” but there has no been any significant increase in global temperature.
Now, of course, three years is too short of time to make any judgment whatsoever but that is exactly my point. You can’t judge the failure of a solar hypothesis with three years of data. You can’t argue for its success either.
#36 Jim Cross, it is not unreasonable to say that 2012 has been the warmest year ever sea ice wise, a natural metric readily visible form space. Right at the time when solar activity is relatively calmest. Its not too short a time, Arctic sea ice volume is like a giant mercury thermometer to all parameters used to measure global warming. Are you waiting for all the ice to disappear before you make a judgement? Climate change is complex, minor temperature trend variations within “too short of time” represent the non linear nature always seen with GT’s. Sea ice volume varies a whole lot less than the temperature record and is more something to consider before claiming that there has been a lull in warming. What does less sea ice mean other than it is warmer?
This is a bit off topic, but, all this discussion of solar forcing has made me realize I don’t have a good short-form mental model of transient climate dynamics. I wonder if someone can recommend some good references?
Is there some nice way to break things down, at least approximately, into some component pieces with back-of-the-envelope property descriptions? For example, there are certain time constants associated with atmospheric response, upper ocean response, deep ocean response, and so forth. It would be nice to be able to, say, look at a time series of radiative forcing and roughly imagine what the global temperature response might look like, given the difference timescales in the system. Likewise there are familiar timescales, such as seasonal temperature changes, that have to line up. When Rawls claims the early-mid 20th century solar changes are responsible for late-20th response, it occurs to me, given all the different timescales in the system, most of which I don’t know the values for, that I don’t have a feel for what the response to a pure-solar forcing might look like (leaving energy balance questions aside — just what is the shape of the curves?)
Basically I’d like a more direct and fine-grained physical understanding than, “We ran a GCM and here is a graph”, which is what most of the papers I’ve found contain, and somewhat more detailed and worked-out than the textbook treatments (e.g.raypierre’s book).
Both the redistribution of mass from the melt of land-ice towards the equator, as well as the expansion of seawater due to an increase in temperatures tend to increase the length-of-day – because of the conservation of angular momentum. Earthquake effects actually work the other way: mass tends to get redistributed closer to the centre of mass of the earth.
It is nice to see that honor still exists among the rational thinking members of our society. I was recently troll stamped on the infamous FM blog for mentioning links to this site, as a way to gain better understanding of global climate change. I had no idea the deniers were so serious about their cause.
John – your premise is incorrect; Arctic sea-ice is not a concentration of mass, and when it melts it doesn’t redistribute around the globe (other of course than in the same way any other Arctic seawater redistributes).
Sea-ice only stands above seawater becaus it is less dense than seawater and hence occupies more volume than the equivalent mass of seawater. The Archimedes principle would repay some study.
Only in so much as it “cause”s great concern over the apparent and rapid decline of homo-Americanos’ intelligence. I guess I was naïve, I thought the ignorance among the Fabius Maximus crowd was due to it being primarily a geo-political site. It seems however, theirs is a deliberate and willful ignorance.
Comment by K.A.S (Kristine) — 19 Dec 2012 @ 9:32 PM
What is interesting is that the IPCC is based on research that has already been done, and published. We already know in aggregation, what is going to go into it. We haven’t seen the full analysis, and coordination, of the data. So any notion that we are about to be shocked seems to miss the fact that we already SHOULD have been shocked.
Which begs the question, what is this in service of?
They are starting the spin already… after all they’re pro’s at “spin”, to position any statement by the IPCC that conflicts with their own leaked versions, as being a cover-up.
Yes, he did. I did not think that particularly worthy of a response, so I concentrated on the hopefully implied question about land ice and hydrology. :) You are right, of course: Archimedes’ law tells us that the mass of the sea ice is equal to the mass of the water which it replaces.
There might be an indirect response to the melt of sea ice due to a difference in salinity, I would guess. It would mean the thermohaline circulation might slow down because fresher waters would lessen the downdraft of water in the Northern Atlantic. Relatively more warm water would remain at the equator and in the Southern hemisphere, which might increase the (lagged) temperature response in the Southern hemisphere. Effects of this order are readily visible in gravimetric and altimetric satellite records.
Everything you need to know about James Delingpole can be found in an interview he gave to Paul Nurse (Nobel Laureate, then President of the Royal Society) for a BBC documentary in which he stated that he has never read a scientific paper, and that he didn’t need to understand the science he was criticizing.
Re- Comment by Paul Grimes — 20 Dec 2012 @ 2:04 PM
Delingpole complained after the interview that he felt like he had been “Intellectually raped.” I presume that, like Rush Limbaugh, he justifies his existence as being some kind of niche market entertainer and the entertainment label provides a license to make up one’s own facts if they are entertaining. Anyone who has not seen the interview should watch it and, especially, appreciate the monster rapist Paul Nurse in action. Steve http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9J7PFAzrQs
James, I strenuously disagree. Given its political sensitivity, it is IMPERATIVE that the draft be freely distributed. Of course,if they wanted the draft to be kept secret, they should have put a huge financial cost on leaks. A simple offer to allow publication for $1 million might have avoided the INEVITABLE leak with the current system.
Wrong choice backed by a system guaranteeing failure in a way that could be construed as evil or immoral. Amaazing….
Thanks for the video link. Any objective viewer told to choose which party was “raped” by the interview (a big stretch, real rape victims would disagree) would have chosen Nobelist Nurse who remained polite and said very little (and clearly had made the appointment in advance).
Comment by Susan Anderson — 28 Dec 2012 @ 12:27 PM
Re- Comment by Susan Anderson — 28 Dec 2012 @ 12:27 PM
You see Susan, that sneaky Nurse makes an appointment, goes in looking like grandpa, and then asks embarrassing questions. It was date rape!
Paul Nurse was and is the current president of the Royal Society, and the fact that Delingpole was so outclassed by him that any comparison is silly is evidenced by the fact that Delingpole agreed to meet with Nurse in front of a camera.
Someone should take a short clip of Delingpole from the video where he is unable to answer a simple question and loop it with some appropriate music. Steve