Refroidissement de l’Antarctique, réchauffement global ?
Troisièmement, il y a des explications très raisonnables pour le refroidissement récemment observé qui ont été reconnues, il y a déjà quelques temps, à partir des simulations des modèles. Cependant, les modèles suggèrent aussi que, plus on va dans le temps et plus l’importance relative des effets radiatifs qui augmentent, comparés avec les effets de la dynamique de l’atmosphère et de l’océan, est susceptible d’augmenter. En résumé, nous nous attendons pleinement à ce que l’Antarctique se réchauffe dans le futur.
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William:
décembre 4th, 2004 at 10:48 PM
It is worth pointing out that the myth of bipolar amplification of global warming is remarkably strong and appears in even otherwise sensible places (e.g. 1, at the end) as well as the standard skeptic press.
The IPCC TAR actually says:
and the zonal mean pic (fig 9.8) on that page shows it clearly.
The myth probably arises from the very early days of equilibrium change runs, where the ocean heat sink effect did not apply.
Doug:
décembre 12th, 2004 at 9:21 PM
The fact that the southern oceans are absorbing heat may set up another interesting lag effect. Warming oceans will increase rates of evaporation which will pump more heat-trapping large molecules (i.e. gaseous H2O) into the atmosphere. So, while the oceans are a heat sink in the short-term, warmer oceans are a source of climate gases in the long-term. More positive feedback …
See for instance, http://www.gcrio.org/ipcc/qa/09.html
David Risen:
décembre 27th, 2004 at 4:13 PM
I agree that local events should not be used as evidence for or against global warming. Do you apply the same degree of criticism to authors who use local warming to argue for global warming? Discover Magazine’s #1 story in science for 2004 is that ‘Evidence of global warming became so overwhelming in 2004 that now the question is: What can we do about it?’
http://www.discover.com/issues/jan-05/cover/
Read the article. You will see that the ‘overwhelming evidence’ listed is based on LOCAL conditions. I look forward to your editorial comments debunking this dishonest use of science.
Oscar:
décembre 29th, 2004 at 8:31 PM
Wouldn’t the real issue about Antarctic cooling be: if the amount of water locked up in the ice cap increasing or decreasing, and at what rate? There is a lot of water down there now, but given the fact that parts of the continent are getting cooler and parts are getting warmers, plus the effects on air currents, etc. this seems like an interesting question to answer. Any studies on the depth of the ice cap?
Understanding Global Warming « Understanding Global Warming:
décembre 30th, 2007 at 3:55 AM
[...] of extra water vapor, and is not inconsistent with a warming world. Despite this, and a slight cooling in parts of Antarctica (now abating), most of the world’s glaciers have been receding as part of an inter-decadal [...]
Understanding Global Warming:
janvier 6th, 2008 at 9:38 PM
[...] of extra water vapor, and is not inconsistent with a warming world. Despite this, and a slight cooling in parts of Antarctica (now abating), most of the world’s glaciers have been receding as part of an inter-decadal [...]
Right-wing agenda in the public schools - Page 4 - Political Forum:
avril 15th, 2008 at 3:07 AM
[...] the level of man’s role in global climate change (don’t call it "global warming", since some areas of the earth get cooler as a result of the change). But maintaining clean water and air, to stay on the safe side, seems like a good idea. I don’t [...]
Cardinal Pell: Australia’s Climate Change Lyre Bird « Under The Milky Way:
janvier 21st, 2009 at 8:26 PM
[...] short, on Antarctica, Pell was selective to the point of myopia. Really, he doesn’t want to know and if Pell is serious about being open to further evidence he will be interested in this report [...]
Man Based Global Warming.... - Page 39:
janvier 22nd, 2009 at 3:52 PM
[...] a rising temperature trend: "Our results do not contradict earlier studies suggesting that some regions of Antarctica have cooled. Why? Because those studies were based on shorter records (20-30 years, not 50 years) …" [...]
Understanding the Basics of Global Holocene Climate Change « Understanding Global Warming:
mars 16th, 2009 at 8:58 PM
[...] precipitation of extra moisture, and is not inconsistent with a warming world. Despite this, and a slight cooling in parts of Antarctica, most of the world’s glaciers have been receding as part of an inter-decadal trend, ice loss [...]
Understanding Global Warming:
mars 17th, 2009 at 2:04 PM
[...] precipitation of extra moisture, and is not inconsistent with a warming world. Despite this, and a slight cooling in parts of Antarctica, most of the world’s glaciers have been receding as part of an inter-decadal trend, ice loss [...]