Tropical Glacier Retreat

The first major piece of evidence put forth in support of the precipitation hypothesis is that the retreat of the Kilimanjaro glaciers began in the late 19th century — before the beginning of significant anthropogenic warming — and coincided with a shift to drier conditions, as evidenced by a reduction in the level of Lake Victoria. This is indeed a convincing argument in favor of the early phase of the retreat (up to around 1900) being precipitation-driven. It would be a fallacy, however, to conclude that the late 19th century precipitation drop is the cause of the continued retreat, and ultimate demise, over the subsequent century or so. After all, precipitation went down in the late 19th century, and Lake Victoria found an equilibrium at a new, lower level without drying up and disappearing. Why should it be any different for the Kilimanjaro glacier, which is also a matter of finding an equilibrium where rate of mass in equals rate of mass out? The association of the initial retreat with precipitation changes has no bearing on this question.

Most of the field studies cited in support of the dominance of precipitation effects for East African glacier retreat only support the role of precipitation in the initial stages of the retreat, up to the early 1900′s. For example, [Kruss 1983] has this to say about the Lewis glacier on Mt. Kenya: “A decrease in the annual precipitation on the order of 150mm in the last quarter of the 19th century, followed by a secular air temperature rise of a few tenths of a degree centigrade during the first half of the 20th century, together with associated albedo and cloudiness variation, constitute the most likely cause of the Lewis Glacier wastage during the last 100 years.” This conclusion is repeated in [Hastenrath 1984].

Moreover, if one only looks at the Lake Victoria level since 1880 one gets the mistaken impression that the high precipitation regime in 1880 was somehow “normal” and that the subsequent shift to drier conditions puts the glacier in a much drier environment than it had previously encountered. The fact is that wet-dry shifts of a similar magnitude are common throughout the record. It would be more correct to say that 1880 represented the center of a wet spike lasting hardly a decade — a very short time in the life of an 11,000 year old glacier– and that the subsequent drying represented a return to “normal” conditions, as illustrated in the accompanying long term lake-level graph from [Nicholson and Yin, 2001]. In fact, a few wet years around 1960, and a moderate shift to wetter conditions in subsequent years, restored the Lake Victoria level to within 1.5 meters of its high-stand. This level is comparable to the level in the decade preceding the 1880 wet spike, and considerably greater than the values estimated for the earlier half of the 19th century. Even more significantly, the Kilimanjaro glacier survived a 300 year African drought which occurred about 4000 years ago, as inferred from the ice core record [Thompson et al, 2002]. This drought was so severe that it has even been implicated in the collapse of a number of civilizations that were subjected to it. If the Kilimanjaro glacier has survived earlier precipitation fluctuations, what is different this time around that is causing its imminent disappearance, if not for something associated with anthropogenic climate change?

Figure 4: Lake Victoria level data, after Nicholson and Yin (2001). The lake acts somewhat like a huge rain gauge, so that lake level is a proxy for precipitation. Data before 1840 is not based on individual year level measurements, but historical reports of general trends.

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