1934 and all that

However, there is clearly a latent and deeply felt wish in some sectors for the whole problem of global warming to be reduced to a statistical quirk or a mistake. This led to some truly death-defying leaping to conclusions when this issue hit the blogosphere. One of the worst examples (but there are others) was the ‘Opinionator’ at the New York Times (oh dear). He managed to confuse the global means with the continental US numbers, he made up a story about McIntyre having ‘always puzzled about some gaps’ (what?) , declared the the error had ‘played havoc’ with the numbers, and quoted another blogger saying that the ‘astounding’ numbers had been ‘silently released’. None of these statements are true. Among other incorrect stories going around are that the mistake was due to a Y2K bug or that this had something to do with photographing weather stations. Again, simply false.

But hey, maybe the Arctic will get the memo.

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620 comments on this post.
  1. Hank Roberts:

    Anyone who reads comp.risks knows the problems.
    http://catless.ncl.ac.uk/Risks/24.80.html

  2. Timothy Chase:

    Hank Roberts (#601) wrote:

    Anyone who reads comp.risks knows the problems.
    http://catless.ncl.ac.uk/Risks/24.80.html

    True, but you could ask someone to forward you an email as well. If you habitually underestimate the intelligence of those you are dealing with, you might even forget to reformat it. In this respect, comparable to a certain profile…

  3. John Mashey:

    re: #600
    All application areas that I’ve ever dealt with have their own tradeoffs between development and QA, i.e., how much money and schedule time will one spend on the latter. Research software is different from production software in its tradeoffs as well, in any area.

    Medical software has no bugs?
    Be serious.
    [I used to work with builders of medical systems like CAT & MRI scanners. Those people were very careful, but…]

  4. Timothy Chase:

    Hank Roberts (#36) wrote:

    Re Peter Ward, after reading his book, I don’t see why you say “If he were right, basically there wouldn’t be anything we could do about it at this point anyway.”

    You are right. I had misread the following interview. Fortunately I was able to find it again.

    Peter Ward
    The scientist on climate change, mass extinctions, and other crazy global-warming consequences
    07-12-07
    http://www.lacitybeat.com/article.php?id=5816&IssueNum=214

    Second paragraph states:

    More ominously, Ward argues, a universally sweltering climate kick started a feedback cycle, disrupting the delicate balance that keeps our planet breathing. To reach a carbon-saturation of 800 to 1,000 parts per million – a figure currently posited by climate modelers – could be to precipitate a level of destruction not seen for millions of years. And it won’t take millions of years to get there. “The first big mass mortalities of humans will likely start around 2050,” Ward says. “And by 2100, this will just be an unrecognizable globe to us.”

    1000 ppm – we certainly won’t reach that by 2050.

    I have an interest in him in part because of my interest in the H2S scenario. When the paragraph puts that together with “big mass mortalities” around 2050, it makes it sound like this is the beginning of that scenario. But it can’t happen that early. You need roughly 1000 ppm, and even then for that to be a factor could take a while. From what I understand, with the strong feedbacks from the carbon cycle under BAU, we should be 720 to 1030 ppm by 2100.

    Of course this was before we discovered that the rate of emissions had actually doubled since the 1990s, so where are we headed if this is the new BAU? The more forcing, the greater the feedback. But there he is probably thinking famine. However, it is argued that climate change is already a significant factor in some wars and famines.

    But when I think of 2040, I am thinking that we really can’t do much to affect how bad things will be at that point. Its already been decided, more or less. What we do now will determine where we go from there: does it get a little worse or a lot worse?

    Anyway, now I will probably buy the book – as soon as I am able to afford it. Anyway, I should be going to bed.

  5. Kooiti Masuda:

    Re. Ron Taylor (#511), Timothy Chase (#529) and others:

    The retreat of many mountain glaciers in Asia is a serious issue with respect to water resources for tens of millions of people (many people, indeed). But I think it an exaggeration (perhaps inadvertent) that it is a serious issue for hundreds of millions of people.

    IPCC AR4 WG1 SPM says
    (under “Fresh water resources and their management” of
    “C. Current knowledge about future impacts”)
    | In the course of the century, water suppries stored in glaciers
    | and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water
    | availability in regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain
    | ranges, where more than one-sixth of the world population
    | currently lives.
    Note that they say “glaciers and snow cover”, not just glaciers.

    Similarly, Stern Review says in boldface
    (Section 3.2 “Water”, p. 76 of Cambridge U.P. edition)
    | Melting glaciers and loss of mountain snow will increase flood
    | risk during wet season and threaten dry-season water supplies
    | to one-sixth of the world’s population (…).
    Here also “mountain snow” is mentioned, though the text that follows
    sometimes makes confusion (e.g. it says that 250 million people in western China depend on glacier meltwater).

    A scientific review article cited by both IPCC and Stern is
    T.P. Barnett, J.C. Adam and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2005:
    Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions.
    Nature, 438, 303 – 309.
    As the title suggests, it mainly deals with the projected decline of snow cover rather than of glaciers, and it does say that “approximately one-sixth of the world’s population lives within this snowmelt-dominated, low-reservoir-storage domain”. I think that the phrase “one-sixth of world population” in IPCC and Stern reports should be interpreted in this context.

    Another estimate that seems to have become popular by Stern review is 500 million in the South Asia (Himalaya & Hindu-Kush region) and 250 million in China. I subjectively think that the Chinese part is reasonable if it is the number of people who depend on either glacier melt or snow melt (mostly the latter), but the South Asian part is still exaggeration even with this interpretation. Maybe the text just says that 500 million people live in the Ganges river basin whether or not they depend on melt water. But if so, inserting such a piece of information in this context is very misleading. More likelily, it seems that the fact that the headwaters of many large rivers such as the Ganges is in the Himalayas makes people (including the writer of review reports) feel like all water of these rivers comes from the Himalayas. Actually some does, but some does not.

  6. Dan Hughes:

    re: # 603

    I did not say, “Medical software has no bugs.”

  7. Kooiti Masuda:

    Re: my comment (#605)

    Excuse me, I made a trivial mistake.
    > IPCC AR4 WG1 SPM says
    It is IPCC AR4 WG2 SPM, not WG1.

  8. Hank Roberts:

    Peter Ward is, for this century, talking about the more immediate issues. Like:

    “Global wheat stockpiles will slip to their lowest levels in 26 years ….
    … Canadian officials said the country expected its harvest to be slashed by a fifth as a result of drought.
    … Australia – the world’s third-largest wheat exporter and a key supplier to Asian regions and South America – has also warned harvests may be reduced by warmer-than-expected temperatures experienced in the spring.
    Crops in the Black Sea area of Europe, however, have been ruined by bad weather
    … Chinese production is expected to fall by 10% as a result of both flooding and droughts.”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6962211.stm

  9. Hank Roberts:

    Two thoughts:
    1) A new way septics self-identify themselves: continuing to claim GISS made a programming “Y2K” error.

    2) News about how adding a new and more accurate set of instruments to an existing data set changes the information (slightly) — the ARGO ocean temperature/salinity data coming in.
    http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007GL030452.shtml

  10. Ron Taylor:

    Re 605 by Kooti Masuda – Thank you for these words of caution. However, this recent article seems to indicate serious concern in China.

    http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0507-05.htm

    And this would indicate that the concern is shared in India.

    http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0507-05.htm

  11. Ron Taylor:

    Sorry – the second link should have been

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16313866/

  12. Philippe Chantreau:

    Interesting article toay also on China’s dilemma. That country’s situation by itself is a quasi-experiment on the problem of the cost of prosperity

  13. Philippe Chantreau:

    Sory, forgot to mention the article is in the NYT.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/26/world/asia/26china.html

  14. Raplh Smythe:

    In the time it’s taken to spend arguing about this, the code could have been consolidated and re-written 28.53852239181 times. Now almost 3 weeks later, we’re back where we started!

  15. Steve McIntyre:

    Can anyone here explain to me how Hansen’s algorithm for combining different data versions works – and thereby show me that his verbal descriptions are (a) accurate (b) sufficient. The problem is described at http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2018 and some preceding posts.

    In the cases of Praha-Libus, Gassim and Joenssu – to pick three examples- there are two station versions for each station. In each case, during the period of overlap, the values in each version are identical. However in each case, one of the versions has one value missing. As a result, Hansen re-states the values for the other series in the above cases by -0.1, 0.1 and 0.2 deg C. If anyone can explain how these values are calculated based on published literature (ort otherwise), I’d much appreciate it.

  16. Steve Bloom:

    Re #615: Sorry, Lex, you’ve got the data and now it’s time for you to come up with your own numbers. If you get a substantially different result from the professionals, I’m sure there will be plenty of volunteers to go over your work product and figure out where you went wrong. Only after that would there be any value in doing the type of comparison you propose.

  17. Michael Cassin:

    I’m hosting a wiki with statistical analysis capability that should be useful. Here is an editable application that illustrates the concept:
    GHCN_Duplicate_time_series_analysis
    . That page serves up the GHCN data for a station, highlighting records with any variance.

    If anyone would point me in the right direction, I’ll try to implement formulae for combining multiple series and share it. Please feel free to try yourself by pressing “edit”, and to contact me if you’d like help.

    Regards, Mike

  18. jacob l:

    so after about a month of debate I tried to create my own temperature estimate.
    I used 20 stations,one month January, avoided missing data as much a possible. filled in on one station one year 1991. all are rural zero light.
    these are my results compared to the N.C.D.C for the U.S.A lower 48

    [edited…we’re not going to go down the slippery slope of allowing people to post long strings of data in the comments. feel free to create an external URL where the data are available, then just provide that external link in your comment]

  19. David B. Benson:

    I am simply reporting an advert on page A16 of todya’s TNYT: The advert states that “global warming is not a crisis” and asks one to call Al Gore to ask him to debate a Mr. Chris Horner. The supporting ‘evidence’ given includes “NASA says 1934 was a warmest year on record in the U.S., not 1998.”

    The sponor appears to be ‘The Heartland Institute’ and has a web site at

    http://www.heartland.org

    I thought you might care to know about this…

  20. Rob Jacob:

    For those still interested, Jim Hansen has made the source code for the temperature analysis available.
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/sources/