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Unforced Variations: Feb 2017

Filed under: — group @ 1 February 2017

“O brave new world, that has such people in ‘t!”

This month’s open thread. Usual rules apply.

257 Responses to “Unforced Variations: Feb 2017”

  1. 251
  2. 252
    Hank Roberts says:

    Methodology to create a new total solar irradiance record: Making a composite out of multiple data records

    First published: 4 February 2017
    DOI: 10.1002/2016GL071866


    Many observational records critically rely on our ability to merge different (and not necessarily overlapping) observations into a single composite. We provide a novel and fully traceable approach for doing so, which relies on a multiscale maximum likelihood estimator. This approach overcomes the problem of data gaps in a natural way and uses data-driven estimates of the uncertainties. We apply it to the total solar irradiance (TSI) composite, which is currently being revised and is critical to our understanding of solar radiative forcing. While the final composite is pending decisions on what corrections to apply to the original observations, we find that the new composite is in closest agreement with the PMOD composite and the NRLTSI2 model. In addition, we evaluate long-term uncertainties in the TSI, which reveal a 1/f scaling.

  3. 253
    Thomas says:

    247 Ray Ladbury, ho ho ho! Very funny throw away adhom there Ray. And a most intelligent contribution about climate denial distributive marketing systems in 2017. Is that all you got? Really?

    I am still waiting to read your published peer-reviewed paper on how to stop the very dangerous effects of climate science denialism based in America.

    What with your top-shelf science connections Ray surely you’d be the lead author of such a wise and instructive paper. You can tell the world all your secret strategies that effectively changes people’s minds en mass.

    I really can’t wait much longer mate. Go for it! (smile)

  4. 254
    MA Rodger says:

    HadCRUT4 has been posted for January with a global anomaly of +0.741ºC, the 12th warmest monthly anomaly on the full record (which compares with 11th in GISS, =18th in NOAA and 8th in BEST) and the 3rd warmest January on record (which is an identical ranking to GISS, NOAA & BEST), slotting in below El Nino years Jan 2016 (+0.906ºC) and Jan 2007 (+0.834ºC) and above Jan 2015 (+0.705C). The ‘scorchio’ of 2015 prior to the recent El Nino appears to be continuing apace. A 1997-99 & 2015-17 comparison of averaged surface & averaged satellite tempertures are graphed out here (usually 2 clicks to ‘download your attachment’) along with a trace of MEI which shows that the La Nina which followed the 1997/98 El Nino is not being repeated this time around.

  5. 255
    MA Rodger says:

    And UAH has posted for February with an anomaly of +0.35ºC, a small rise from January’s +0.30ºC. It becomes the 4th warmest February on the UAH TLT v6.0beta5 record (behind three El Nino years, Feb 2016 +0.832ºC, Feb 1998 +0.653ºC and Feb 2010 +0.462ºC) the 33rd warmest month on the full record.

  6. 256

    Th 253,

    It’s “en masse.” French, you know.

  7. 257