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Unforced Variations: August 2017

Filed under: — group @ 2 August 2017

This month’s open thread.

592 Responses to “Unforced Variations: August 2017”

  1. 251
    Thomas says:

    “Lest We Forget”
    National contributions to observed global warming – H Damon Matthews et al 2014

    The United States is an unambiguous leader, with a contribution of more than double that of China (with 1.3 billion souls), which falls second in the ranking.

    Russia, Brazil, India, Germany and the United Kingdom (#1 per person contributor historically) represent the third through seventh largest contributors to observed warming. In general, individual country climate contributions decrease rapidly moving down this list.

    These top seven countries alone account for 63% of the warming up to 2005; the top 20 countries account for 82% of the observed warming.
    http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/1/014010;jsessionid=1B7E3F2D55E725E0EF269009D5E84874.c2.iopscience.cld.iop.org

    Which means of course that the other ~172 nations account for only 18%. Do the Math. :-)

  2. 252
    Ray Ladbury says:

    Nemesis,
    First, I know better than to tell someone else what he or she believes. I will let them handle that task. Second, I wonder why it is that you single out capitalism for criticism as expansionist. Communism, socialism, fascism… pick your -ism, and they are all pretty much pro-growth. Marx was nothing if not pro-growth.

    And from what you say, we can discern you are against the infinite growth. Great. Who, really, outside of an economics department, thinks growth can continue indefinitely? This tells us nothing of what you are for. We know what you disbelieve. What do you believe?

  3. 253
    Mal Adapted says:

    Nemesis:

    if my “ideas” have already been considered on their merits and are rejected, do I have to shut up then or stop talking about my “ideas”?

    Aw, hell no. There’s no way I can stop you, that’s up to the moderators. I don’t even know where you live! Ain’t free speech grand ;^)?

    I’ll leave you with some words from Naomi Klein

    Liar. You posted more replies after that one. Whatever.

    You’re entitled to Ms. Klein’s opinion, of course. Like all college graduates, she’s more or less right. You think she’s more right; I think she’s less, although not completely wrong. From your comments, you’re apparently sure she’s right even when she’s wrong, just because she sounds right to you. I have to live without that assurance, because “The first principle is you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool” (Feynman). Political Economics comprises minds trying to understand why they fool themselves so easily. That makes intersubjectively-verifiable evidence harder to obtain than for, say, Climatology.

    You quote Ms. Klein:

    So when the Heartlanders react to evidence of human-induced climate change as if capitalism itself were coming under threat, it’s not because they are paranoid. It’s because they are paying attention.”

    Duh. That’s what they’re paid for. As abundantly documented in the public record, their profession is thriving on the fossil fuel industry’s savvy reinvestment of a tiny fraction of its annual revenues to protect the rest. If you’re so smart, why ain’t you rich?

    Yes, because the Heartlanders are paying attention, we have to, even if we don’t earn our livings by flooding the public sphere with skillfully crafted bespoke disinformation. Don’t you feel better knowing that?

    Nemesis:

    So, please, let’s not get paranoid about your beloved capitalism.

    Gimme a break. ‘paranoid’? ‘beloved’? Look up ‘decision on the margin’ on teh google, Galileo.

    Nemesis:

    Btw, I like your nickname, because it speaks for itself:

    He can be taught ;^D! BTW, yours speaks for itself too. It’s sort of grandiose.

    In six decades, I’ve found maturation to be a process of replacing comforting illusions with verified knowledge. I’ve still got some comfort left, so I know the process isn’t complete. As a lifelong student of Evolutionary Biology, however, I’m as sure as I need to be that adaptation by natural selection is a game in which the only reward for winning is to stay in the game. Around 40 years ago I decided I didn’t need to ‘win’, and foreswore fatherhood; whence my nom du clavier. The buck stops here.

    It’s not my job to teach you anything, so trusting that I’ve failed to teach you humility, I’ll leave you (no more freebies) to ponder the mediocrity principle.

  4. 254
    zebra says:

    nigelj 241,

    You keep letting yourself be sucked back into the right-wing/left-wing distortions about “capitalism”

    As I pointed out previously, environmental degradation and consumption of finite resources has nothing to do with “capitalism”:

    Even if we had a pure functioning democracy, and the benefits of natural resources were distributed with absolute efficiency, absolutely equally, to every citizen…there is no reason to think that we would stop consuming and polluting.

    The likes of N, K, and T, just can’t deal with this reality. It’s a kind of denial that is on a par with the Denialists; if you accept humans’ monkey-nature as existing at the individual level, then you have to accept it in yourself.

    Going by their greedy behavior on these threads, I suspect they haven’t put in the spiritual work to transcend those impulses. Just sayin’…

  5. 255

    Nemesis, I believe you are indulging a fallacy of equivocation. “Capitalism” does not mean “endless growth,” or we would have to believe that Stalin’s USSR was capitalist. Capitalism means that the means of production are privately held. I see no reason a capitalist economy could not work without endless growth. Okun’s Law has the direction of causality reversed–it’s not growth that creates jobs, it’s jobs that create growth (cf Cobb-Douglas production function). Scale back the hours worked as productivity increases and you can preserve competition and trade without endlessly inflating the economy.

  6. 256

    Th244: The same kind of crap went down in the Balkans wars, kidnapping and sex trafficking by US citizens working for the UN, for the State Dept and the US Military and for the civilian Police there

    BPL: Do you have any proof for this that would stand up in court? I for one am well aware that sex trafficking exists, but you seem to be saying A) that no one but you cares about it, and B) that the US government is involved in it. Out of a pizza joint in Florida, perhaps?

  7. 257
    Mal Adapted says:

    Thomas:

    Now please would you and others also listen to the Voices of Experience…. and pay attention to the real facts?

    How do you know we’re not, Thomas? I don’t know about ‘others’, but I’m just not paying attention to your facts! Shirley, you can’t imagine yours are more real than mine 8^D?

  8. 258

    So much scrooooolling…

    Remember, guys, brevity is the soul of something or other pretty good…

  9. 259
    nigelj says:

    Thomas @243

    “I am genuinely curious – and thus motivated to ask about this: “But are we likely to see an increase of several degrees in the next ten years, a near doomsday event?”

    “Who has been saying things like this? Killian never has, and I don’t recall DWW suggesting it either in his long article – which seems to be your current topic atm. Nor has any outlier ‘climate scientist’ or enviro activist ever said such a thing either … so who? Gotta quote/ref? I’m get really confused with such points of view and wonder from where they come. thx”

    Guy McPherson, a retired and notable scientist, has claimed we will all be dead within ten years due in large part to climate change. Link below

    http://www2.nzherald.co.nz/the-country/news/article.cfm?c_id=16&objectid=11756300

    http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2016/11/humans-dont-have-10-years-left-thanks-to-climate-change—scientist.html

    To summarise my views. I don’t think this sort of thing helps as its just so speculative and unlikely.

    I do think we should emphasise the more plausible worst case scenarios including the distinct possibility of 2 metres sea level rise this century, as its backed by published science. Obviously its low probability, but given we are talking about the planet, this becomes important.

    Its shades of difference, but important I think.

    Killian makes some very good points, but is not actually too clear in his posts on what he subscribes to.

  10. 260
    zebra says:

    BPL BPL,

    ” Capitalism means that the means of production are privately held.” ?? Seriously?

    So, if I’m a subsistence farmer or subsistence hunter-gatherer, I’m a capitalist? Living day to day and season to season, but I “hold” my bow or digging stick?

    No, I think that the meaningful way to understand capitalism is that a mechanism exists for the value of labor to be accumulated over some time period and distributed over some subsequent time period, with the intent to increase the value held.

  11. 261
    nigelj says:

    Thomas @244

    You want government to shut down the websites and media of all the crazy people and liars out there? It’s not going to happen. Freedom of speech is untouchable in America.

    I dislike all the websites and personalities you mentioned and wish they would shut up, but in America in particular freedom of speech will never be shut down, unless Breitbart made explicit threats, and they are too shrewd to do that. I would be uncomfortable myself if websites were banned. Bad precedents would be set.

    The public largely do eventually see through all the nutters you mentioned, except perhaps in America.

    Reducing emissions is up against all these unfortunate political facts of life that allow stupid people to make loud noises, and we also have a slow political process etc.

    This will probably only change if climate change becomes sort of immediate full scale emergency. I thought last years temperatures would have woken people up. It might require more of a very visible jump in the rate of sea level rise.

    One of the problems is politicians captive to anti climate science lobby groups. Counter this by directly communicating with your local politicians and put pressure on them. It would be good if more philanthropists sympathetic to climate change funded politicians.

    Its a mountain to climb. There are so many reasons for climate denialism, maybe as many reasons as there are deniers. But if you look at at least some other controversies, numbers of sceptics and deniers do decrease over time, eg the risks of smoking.

  12. 262
    nigelj says:

    Zebra @254

    “You keep letting yourself be sucked back into the right-wing/left-wing distortions about “capitalism”

    Not really. It just seems like you only read my first sentences, and shot from the hip! It was obvious from everything I wrote I meant laissez faire, or extreme neoliberal versions of capitalism are problematic. This is the way the world has drifted since the 1980s to some extent, thinking of Reagon and Thatcher, Alan Greenspan etc. It all started well and did some useful things, but has got out of control and turned into a religion.

    Capitalism as normally defined in a dictionary is ok, provided governments have good environmental and health and safety legislation, welfare systems, etc, etc. Capitalism tends to try to increase rates of growth, but this can be controlled without undermining the basic drivers of capitalism.

    However perhaps I could have been clearer. Lack of clarity is at least half the problem humans have.

    “Even if we had a pure functioning democracy, and the benefits of natural resources were distributed with absolute efficiency, absolutely equally, to every citizen…there is no reason to think that we would stop consuming and polluting.’

    Hello? I specifically said in my post that horizontal distribution was a meaningless slogan. But absolutely agree fairer distribution wont stop pollution.

    For what its worth I tend to think some form of exactly equal distribution is far too idealistic and doesn’t actually make sense, but inequality is certainly becoming alarmingly high and a significant problem. We have to find some sensible half way house or big trouble is brewing.

    Agree with the rest of your post anyway, and your use of sensible scepticism.

    And as others point out communism was very “pro growth” and that sort of pressure cooker can actually push higher rates of growth than capitalism.

  13. 263
    Mal Adapted says:

    Kevin McKinney:

    Remember, guys, brevity is the soul of something or other pretty good…

    According to W. Shakespeare it’s the soul of ‘wit’. When you’re trying to say something substantive OTOH, too much brevity is the soul of misunderstanding. If no one said that before, I just did.

    Having said it, I feel some of Thomas’s words have value. They’d have more if he left the rest out.

  14. 264
    Thomas says:

    253 Mal Adapted recommends “the mediocrity principle”

    Like, wow, who knew? Talk about redundant.

    Does P Z Myers and Mal imagine they are teaching something really important to others they presume don’t have a clue? http://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/presumptuous

    Sorry but Myers and Adapted aren’t that special either – especially if this is the limits of their insightful wisdom and judgments about others and what they might say here from time to time. Bloody hell. Fair dinkum. Mal imagines that he’s teaching Nemesis “humility” – and is qualified to do so? What a joke, seriously. Leave the psycho analysis for the professionals in a clinical setting mate. Because despite your years, you’re way out of your depth in this subject. In my very humble but authoritative, educated and experienced opinion.

    256 Barton Paul Levenson asks for proof. Me personally in my hot little hands? No. But those that were there sure did which was reported on broadly at one point. Did it make to court? Yes, some things did others did not. Not every crime committed makes it to court BPL. Feel free to label it “fake news” if you choose but there’s no obligation on me to back up previous actual news, written accounts, docos or other known narratives.

    Please don’t blame me for knowing about things you were not aware of as you probably working very hard and totally focused on your scientific work or teaching. No one knows everything. I do not, and thankfully I am very aware of my limitations too. And I do not lie nor exaggerate about what I know is backed up by evidence, be scientific and otherwise.

    A little self-reflection never killed anyone that I know of. Certainly not myself. Take care. I hope the book is going well for you and the readers.

  15. 265
    Thomas says:

    Reason is 98% Subconscious Metaphor in Frames & CULTural Narratives

    Would a little metaphor help with understanding then?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POJtaO2xB_o

    I’m as Aussie as Mike Dundee … it’s like a fundamental aspect of “our culture” we’re born into it with a huge dose of tolerance for others and a great sense of humour. So it’s not too difficult to hang around “kids just having a bit of fun …” *twinkle*

    Happy Days all. Keep on scrolling along. And thanks Gavin, you are the best!

  16. 266
    Thomas says:

    257 Mal Adapted says: “I’m just not paying attention to your facts!”

    My “facts”? Mine? As in you’re accusing me of creating out of thin air my own facts – that are not actually “facts”? Yet you seem to also be saying like others that you either don;t read them nor pay any attention to them at the same time? Wow. That’s some extraordinary talent you got going there.

    It’s like this Mal, I’m entitled to my opinion and my beliefs and my values and my analysis of facts, but I am not entitled to make up my own facts Mal. Facts are facts Mal. They are NOT my own. I do not own them nor made them. Your (and Victors and KIAs etc too) knowledge of, or acceptance of, such facts is irrelevant. They are still facts.

    Shirley, you can’t be serious! Alas, you probably are. There but for the grace of god go I. Do carry on regardless. Each to their own, hey.

  17. 267
    Nemesis says:

    ” I am a conservative Republican, a firm believer in free market capitalism. A free market system allows all parties to compete, which ensures the best and most competitive project emerges, and ensures a fair, democratic process.”

    – Sarah Palin

    These words sound like a prayer, spoken by heart. I love that moving prayer, because democrats and republicans speak that prayer together hand in hand, peacefully united through the communion of free market capitalism:

    ” In the god of money we trust.”

    https://tinyurl.com/y9m8gg35

  18. 268
    Nemesis says:

    @Ray Ladbury, #252

    ” We know what you disbelieve. What do you believe?”

    I said several times already, what I believe. I believe, that not competition, but sharing would be the solution. Sounds funny, I know, so I do also believe, that sharing will not happen, because too many people are too greedy. Greed leads to ignorance and blindness, greed leads to desaster. I believe in myself, not in money, not in things. I believe in letting go. The more I let go, the more I get free. One day I’ll have to leave all things behind. I am preparing for that day. I am not preparing, to stay here forever, owing things, clinging to things, owed by things. I believe, money is a cult, a religion, a god in some sense. But it’s a small god with a short lifespan. Oh, and I believe in Music, I believe in the Blues, I believe in Duende, I believe in Pan.

  19. 269
    Nemesis says:

    Addendum to my last post:

    I believe in the ever consuming Fire of Nature, wich burns all things, all beings, all species, all stars, all gods, all names, all thoughts, all concepts. I believe in the Laws of Nature. Some say, money rules the world, some say, god rules the world. It’s not true. The iron Laws of Nature rule the world. Communism comes and goes, Fascism comes and goes, capitalism comes and goes, religion comes and goes, all -isms come and go. But the ever burning Fire of Nature stays, the Laws of Nature stay.

  20. 270
  21. 271
    Mal Adapted says:

    Thomas:

    253 Mal Adapted recommends “the mediocrity principle”

    Like, wow, who knew?

    At least one, by the evidence ;^).

    Talk about redundant.

    Dang, Thomas, I can’t get anything past you 8^D!

    Do you ever get the feeling you’re being played, Thomas?

  22. 272
    Mal Adapted says:

    Nemesis:

    I believe in the ever consuming Fire of Nature, wich burns all things, all beings, all species, all stars, all gods, all names, all thoughts, all concepts.

    That was rather poetic, and I intend no sarcasm. It’s worth another ‘freebie’ 8^):

    Metaphors and other forms of poetic language can inspire other individuals who make the same associations you do. Under nominal pluralistic democracy, however, their value in collective decision making is limited, because they’re not sufficiently verifiable ‘intersubjectively’ (pre-Po-Mo we said ‘objectively’).

    That said, here’s hoping poetry helps us collectively cap the aggregate cost of our individual fossil carbon emissions short of intersubjectively-verifiable global tragedy.

    We’re really on the same ‘side’ here on RC, Nemesis. I hope you harness your passion to further our shared goals. Don’t make the mistake, however, of assuming that everyone shares your emphases. You already know they don’t map directly to a governing program.

    Now, please accept conditional apologies from a real, live grumpy old man, who earned that credential one day at a time. That is, until you piss me off again by making ‘loud’ unsupported assumptions about your audience 8^|!

  23. 273
    MA Rodger says:

    GISTEMP has posted for July with an anomaly of +0.83ºC, the second coolest anomaly of the year so far but a considerable increase on June’s anomaly of +0.68ºC. Further, 2017 is the warmest July on record, just ahead of July 2016 (+0.82ºC) and well ahead of the Julys of other previous years – =3rd 2015, 2011, 2009 all +0.71ºC, and 6th good old 1998 +0.68ºC.
    July 2017 sits as 28th warmest anomaly on the full monthly GISTEMP record.
    “Scorchio-wise”, the first seven months of 2017 sits in 3rd spot behind 2016 & 2015 and as 2015 was early-on little affected by El Nino, 2017-so-far is not achieving “scorchyissimo!!!” The El Nino does look like making 2nd spot for 2017 for the full year a bit of an ask now.

    The years are ranked by Warmest-Jan-to-July below.

    …….. Ave Jan-July … Annual Ave ..Annual ranking
    2016 .. +1.07ºC … … … +0.96ºC … … …1st
    2015 .. +0.86ºC … … … +0.89ºC … … …2nd
    2017 .. +0.78ºC
    2010 .. +0.77ºC … … … +0.72ºC … … …4th
    2014 .. +0.73ºC … … … +0.74ºC … … …3rd
    1998 .. +0.70ºC … … … +0.64ºC … … …7th
    2007 .. +0.69ºC … … … +0.63ºC … … …10th
    2002 .. +0.67ºC … … … +0.62ºC … … …11th
    2005 .. +0.66ºC … … … +0.67ºC … … …6th
    2013 .. +0.64ºC … … … +0.67ºC … … …5th
    2009 .. +0.61ºC … … … +0.64ºC … … …8th

  24. 274
    Mal Adapted says:

    nigelj:

    It just seems like you only read my first sentences, and shot from the hip!

    Heh. A common problem. It implies the reason why “brevity is the soul of something or other pretty good” (h/t Kevin McKinney).

    To say other pretty good things, you (that is, I) want to use just enough words to make your meaning clear, without making unsupported assumptions about your audience. Yet why work hard on that if no one reads past the first sentence if any?

    Why indeed? I, for one, am stockpiling op-ed boilerplate ;^D. Even if it’s only “recreational typing” (h/t Hank Roberts), it’s an inexpensive pastime at worst.

  25. 275
    MA Rodger says:

    Ooops!!
    Not doing very well with these “scorchyissimo!!!” posts of late. Last time I managed to trash the spreadsheet I use for the tables and this time I’m copying the wrong data into it.
    So ***CORRECTION***
    “Scorchio-wise”, the first seven months of 2017 sits strongly in 2nd spot behind El-Nino-boosted 2016. That does make 2017 so-far truly “scorchyissimo!!!”

    The years are ranked by Warmest-Jan-to-July below.
    …….. Ave Jan-July … Annual Ave ..Annual ranking
    2016 .. +1.07ºC … … … +0.99ºC … … …1st
    2017 .. +0.94ºC
    2015 .. +0.80ºC … … … +0.87ºC … … …2nd
    2010 .. +0.75ºC … … … +0.71ºC … … …4th
    2007 .. +0.71ºC … … … +0.66ºC … … …6th
    1998 .. +0.70ºC … … … +0.63ºC … … …9th
    2014 .. +0.69ºC … … … +0.75ºC … … …3rd
    2002 .. +0.68ºC … … … +0.63ºC … … …11th
    2005 .. +0.65ºC … … … +0.69ºC … … …5th
    2009 .. +0.60ºC … … … +0.64ºC … … …8th
    2013 .. +0.60ºC … … … +0.66ºC … … …7th

  26. 276
    Nemesis says:

    @Mal Adapted, #253

    ” Duh. That’s what they’re paid for. As abundantly documented in the public record, their profession is thriving on the fossil fuel industry’s savvy reinvestment of a tiny fraction of its annual revenues to protect the rest. If you’re so smart, why ain’t you rich?

    This is the MOST ridiculous question I have seen for a very long time. I’m asking myself: IS THIS EVEN REAL?!:

    ” Well, if you are SMART, then you gotta be RICH, my son!”

    So, I am NOT rich and therefore NOT smart, I’m just a ghetto monkey. You know, I give a SHIT about being “smart”, about being “rich”. I hold up the iron Laws of Nature, I hold up the REAL game of big fish eat small fish, the bloody game of eating and being eaten. Got that?! In THAT game, money is just PAPER, as the valuta of that game is FLESH AND BONES, not funny, colored paper, nor funny “graduates” of funny colleges and funny universities. If you didn`t learn that, your children and grandchilrden will learn that, on a HOT and HOTTER planet and they will pay with their very own flesh and bones, not with “smart”, funny money.

    I am not interested in being fuckin “rich”. See, this is your money box, grab as much “smart money” as you can and put it all in here:

    http://www.goodfuneralguide.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/co26-960×670.jpg

    And please, don’t forget, to put your flesh and bones in it too, when the day comes. Soon, my monkey brother, soon.

  27. 277
    Ray Ladbury says:

    Nemesis,
    So, basically, you believe in a system that can never be realized because it is inconsistent with human nature?

    Sort of reminds me of what Edward O. Wilson–who studied ants–said about Marxism: “Marx was exactly right! He just had the wrong species.”

  28. 278
    Nemesis says:

    ” 15.8.2017 – Climate change blamed as EU’s forest fires nearly treble in 2017

    … The number of forest fires in the EU has nearly trebled so far this year, according to figures obtained by Euronews, affecting an area close to twice the size of Luxembourg.

    There have been 1,068 blazes in 2017 – a huge increase on the 404 the bloc saw annually on average over the previous eight years…

    “At the moment this is very neglected. The reality is firefighting is very political and business-driven, especially with helicopters and aircraft.

    “As a politician if you order more helicopters you are seen as a very active politician but if you invest in clearing land, no-one from the media will show any interest in your prevention work.”…”

    http://www.euronews.com/2017/08/15/how-europe-s-wildfires-have-more-than-trebled-in-2017

    TREBLED in one year^^ Com on, there is way more profit to be made in the cooking pot of Nature. Go, go, make more profit, more HEAT, while the planet is burning!

    TRUST in capitalism, TRUST in the free market, it will solve all problems soon once and for all

  29. 279
    nigelj says:

    Basically getting off fossil fuels has something in common with ending an addiction. Its going to be hard work.

  30. 280
    nigelj says:

    Nemesis @268

    “I said several times already, what I believe. I believe, that not competition, but sharing would be the solution.”

    Without competition economies don’t work well. They stagnate, prices go up, technological innovation stops, monopolies emerge. The obvious example is the USSR.

    Some limited exceptions can be made for logical reasons. Many countries have public health systems which are basically monopolies, and very much a “sharing” economy as they are funded by all and generally accessible to all. They work well enough, because if they get too lazy governments can be thrown out of power. It’s also important to ensure wide access to basic health services.

    But keeping public services efficient is hard work, and its not a reason for governments to own and run everything.

    “Sounds funny, I know, so I do also believe, that sharing will not happen, because too many people are too greedy. Greed leads to ignorance and blindness, greed leads to disaster.”

    Humans are acquisitive and grasping by our deepest natures. Its evolution in action. However most of us also have some generosity of spirit built in as well. We are both competitive and cooperative beings at the same time. We are combinations of many seemingly contradictory things. The best we can hope for is to minimise excessive greed and destructive levels of competition.

    Read Aristotles politics, or Adam Smith. Wealth creation is a function of humans working together in cooperation, to build things. We are social creatures not lone wolves, in the main. Remember Adam Smiths pin factory analogy. For this wealth creation to endure, the system needs stability, which means it needs to be as fair as practical and have some rules.

    “I believe in myself, not in money, not in things. I believe in letting go. The more I let go, the more I get free. One day I’ll have to leave all things behind. I am preparing for that day. I am not preparing, to stay here forever, owing things, clinging to things, owed by things. I believe, money is a cult, a religion, a god in some sense. But it’s a small god with a short lifespan. Oh, and I believe in Music, I believe in the Blues, I believe in Duende, I believe in Pan.”

    Nice sentiments. But I dont think money is a god, its really just a tool, a means of exchange. Market worship can become a god, when markets should really be an important tool.

    We need a higher purpose and look for this, but you sound more like escapism.

  31. 281
    mike says:

    July CO2

    July 2017: 407.25 ppm
    July 2016: 404.50 ppm

    per CO2.earth

    Last Week

    August 6 – 12, 2017 405.48 ppm
    August 6 – 12, 2016 403.07 ppm

    that looks like pretty good, I guess. I think as long as we keep the rate of increase under 3 ppm per annum, things should work out just fine. 3 ppm is a very small number.

    Cheers

    Mike

  32. 282
    Nemesis says:

    @Ray Ladbury, #277

    ” So, basically, you believe in a system that can never be realized because it is inconsistent with human nature?”

    Sharing is not inconsistent with human Nature. It’s inconsistent with greedy multinational corporations and corrupt politicians, it’s inconsistent with monkey Nature.

  33. 283
    Nemesis says:

    @nigelji, #280

    ” The best we can hope for is to minimise excessive greed and destructive levels of competition. “

    Gnahahaha, com on, greed is the fuel of capitalism, greed is the engine of capitalism. The more greed, the more consumption, the more profit, the more capitalism. Tell these gangsters at the Wall Street or ExxonMobil or the Deutsche Bank about your hope. Yes, I can see you talking to these guys:

    ” Sirs, I love capitalism, just like you do, but, please, be a little more humble, just a little bit less greed, Sirs, please.”

    ” But I dont think money is a god, its really just a tool, a means of exchange.”

    I see, “In god we trust”, written on the dollar bill, is just a misprint, it should have been “In colored paper we trust.”

  34. 284
    Nemesis says:

    @Ray Ladbury

    About sharing:

    Just look at the last indigenous folks. They don’t know of any funny “competition”, they SHARE everything they got from Nature. Or look at your own family:

    Do you “compete” within your fellow family?! No, what you do, is sharing. Homo Sapiens is one species, one family or he will be no more soon.

  35. 285
    Thomas says:

    281 mike says: “I think as long as we keep the rate of increase under 3 ppm per annum, things should work out just fine. 3 ppm is a very small number.”

    In Geological time 3ppm per year increase is a huge number that is unprecedented, according to the accumulated Scientific knowledge at this point. Isn’t it? All things considered.

    3 ppm increase per year places Earth’s CO2 at 479 ppm in 2040. That’s not a “good” number. Is it?

    And that is on top of the significant warming forcing already embedded within the Climate System today, according to our best Climate Science available, that has not yet manifested outwardly as higher temperatures, ocean acidification, loss of cryosphere ice mass, and impacts upon the weather of regional climate zones at this point in time.

    The current data on CO2/CO2e ppm stats do not look good to me. YMMV.

  36. 286
    nigelj says:

    Zebra @260

    “No, I think that the meaningful way to understand capitalism is that a mechanism exists for the value of labor to be accumulated over some time period and distributed over some subsequent time period, with the intent to increase the value held.”

    Hard to decipher this. Do you mean money is accumulated and some is invested in “new forms of enterprise or innovation, research etc?

    And that banks loan against savings but at a multiple, assuming increased growth will be able to pay the money back? If so this seems more a definition of fractional reserve banking.

    These are attributes of capitalist economies, yet innovation goes back to all forms of economies or we would not have progressed at all. Capitalism is not really defined by fractional reserve banking.

    The standard definition of capitalism is private ownership, competitive free markets, individual freedom, etc. Its rather descriptive and simply differentiates from state ownership. Its crude I guess, but there’s a fundamental difference between private and state ownership.

    Many people also accept modern economies need a combination of both capitalism and state ownership. They don’t see such things as incompatible, and define capitalism flexibly and I fall into that group. Its only the idiots that maintain capitalist economies must have everything in private ownership, ignoring the facts about things like armies and the police that are public entities.

  37. 287
    Thomas says:

    275 MA Rodger – excellent info – don’t ever worry about making mistakes, it’s human and quite OK. Thank you for the Updates. It fits what’s going on in the Arctic this summer to a T.

  38. 288
    Thomas says:

    272 Mal Adapted claims: “Metaphors and other forms of poetic language can inspire other individuals who make the same associations you do. Under nominal pluralistic democracy, however, their value in collective decision making is limited….”

    Modern Cognitive Science says you are wrong Mal Adapated. YMMV, but feel free to double check all the ref’s and science experts in the field that I have provided on that very subject.

    Human Reason is 98% Subconscious Metaphor in Frames & Cultural Narratives

    That’s Science Mal!!! I’m not making it up. It is backed up today by decades of expert scientific research and studies and Peer-Reviewed Published Papers. https://scholar.google.com

  39. 289
    Thomas says:

    271 Mal Adapted inquires: “Do you ever get the feeling you’re being played, Thomas?”

    Nope. Why do you ask? Do you ever get that feeling of paranoia yourself Mal? That everything other people might say here is always all about you?

    Hint: Go read that quote by Myers again mate.

  40. 290
    Mal Adapted says:

    Nemesis, please tell us, What Is To Be Done?

  41. 291
    Mike Roberts says:

    Well, Nemesis, you’re right that capitalism and it’s drive for growth damages our ecosystems. And, certainly, some climate scientists haven’t yet grasped that. James Hansen, for example, is a great climate scientist and has given us so much information on what we’re doing to our climate and the possible impacts, but his arguments for a carbon fee include this: “Economic studies show that this would spur the economy, increase gross national product, and create millions of jobs“. If he’s right, then, if we do see a carbon fee, we will see more habitat destruction and more environmental damage. We need holistic thinking, not just a blinkered “we must stop warming at any cost”. Yes, it’s hugely important but not at any cost; we have to do something about all of the predicaments we face.

  42. 292
    Nemesis says:

    @nigelji, #280

    ” We need a higher purpose and look for this, but you sound more like escapism.”

    Yes, we need a higher purpose, than religious consumerism and greed for profit. Why do I sound like escapism? Is it, because I talk about sharing or is it, because I talk about letting go, consuming little, being humble, and, as an individual, preparing for leaving some day?

    Sharing is a must. Without sharing, your family would not exist. Homo Sapiens is a family and without sharing, he will go extinct.

    And when I talk about leaving as an individual some day, I mean, that’s reality:

    We live some decades, if we are lucky, and then we are gone. So why hoard things, why hoard money, why follow the stupid road of greed? We need food, we need water, we need some clothes, we need some shoes, some housing, we need Nature (YES, we do), we need culture, maybe spirituality or some poetry at least and we need to share material things and immaterial things, but we don’t need 200PS cars, we don’t need private jets, we don’t need swiming pools, we don’t need millions and millions of products in the supermarkets ect ect ect.

    Just meditate about what you REALLY need for 5 minutes every day and just get rid of the rest, give it back to the Fire and you might be on the road to freedom and enlightenment. And leave the rest to your children and grandchildren, so they can live on a beautiful, healthy planet and not in Real Hell. You live on in your children for real. You live on, when you die. Dying is living, living is dying. Look at Mother Nature:

    That’s what she teaches every single day, every single minute. Breathing in, breathing out, that’s the tide of Nature, the tide of the Cosmos, eternally.

  43. 293
    nigelj says:

    Nemesis @283

    “greed is the fuel of capitalism, greed is the engine of capitalism. The more greed, the more consumption, the more profit, the more capitalism. Tell these gangsters at the Wall Street or ExxonMobil or the Deutsche Bank about your hope.” Yes, I can see you talking to these guys”

    Greed is not the fuel of capitalism. The fuel is just the desire for a better life or to make a profit.

    Definition of greed, from google search: greed intense and selfish desire for something, especially wealth, power, or food.

    Don’t conflate greed with just wanting to get ahead or make a profit.

    The gangsters of wall street are indeed odious people driven by odious levels of greed, but not everyone in the finance industry is driven to that extent. I know this from personal experience. Its shades of grey. And sociopaths driven by pure greed will always be with us operating in any economic system, unless you wish to lock them up for their greed? So its not unique to capitalism, just look at the USSR.

    The only societies that had a high level of sharing and egalitarianism are ancient hunter gatherers. Its probably too late for humans to go back to that. Maybe thats a shame in some ways.

    And even the greed of wall street can be of benefit, if governments regulate the sector more firmly to contain the worst excesses. Perhaps you are young and dont know much economic history, as wall street was not always as “greedy” and out of control.

    Good book on the out of control, greedy financial sector “Other Peoples Money, by John Kay”

    “I see, “In god we trust”, written on the dollar bill, is just a misprint, it should have been “In colored paper we trust.”

    It’s not on our money in my country.

    Some people worship money. Anything can become a personal god, obsession, addiction, or destructive and I’m not saying I’m immune because I have had my share of addictions. But not everyone worships money.

    Have a nice day!

  44. 294
    Thomas says:

    “For ages scientists have been using our graphs and our data and our facts to try to communicate our science but it’s been demonstrated that this doesn’t really work very well,” Dr Verges says. “It very rarely influences people’s opinions and hardly ever motivates action. Storytelling, in contrast, is emerging as a very clear way to communicate environmental issues.”
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/movies/climate-fiction-forum-sees-tv-drama-as-one-solution-to-global-warming-20170815-gxwew4.html

    Thanks to advances in supercomputing and pooling hundreds of climate models developed by researchers across the world, they are also more statistically confident than ever in saying that intense storms, droughts and record-breaking heat waves are occurring with increased frequency because of humans. “Ten years ago we wouldn’t have been able to do so,” says Ken Kunkel, a climate scientist at North Carolina State University who also works with the NOAA.
    http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/does-climate-change-cause-extreme-weather-events-180964506/

    Scientists Just Worked Out How Zinc-Air Batteries Can Replace Lithium-Ion Batteries
    https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2017/08/dead-set-legends-australian-scientists-just-worked-out-how-zinc-air-batteries-can-replace-lithium-ion-batteries/

  45. 295
    Walt says:

    Haven’t been here in a while so the TUE, whatever that is, is something new to me. But if people are discussing the world becoming uninhabitable you might check a Harvard study a year or two ago that found CO2 levels of 500ppm caused reduced brain function in students, and because some classrooms tend to have much higher CO2 levels than that, in a room with stagnant air we might be lecturing to virtual zombies.

    My question here is about a NOVA program, now on video, that came out over 10 years ago, titled “Dimming the Sun” caused a serious discussion about particulates and aerosols which were having a bigger effect than people realized. I remember that it caused a lot of discussion and eventually the 2013 IPCC report suggested possibly, on the last page or so, that geoengineering could reduce the speed of warming – or something like that.

    I use that film and the latest reports from NOAA in a big conservation-oriented course and received a notice from the Dean’s office that the information in that video was retracted within one week of its original airing, which I think is BS from some idiot who spent too much time reading material from the Heartland Institute or listening to Alex Jones rant about systematic data forging.

    As someone who remembers Heidi Cullen being fired from The Weather Channel for suggesting that meteorologists be required to take a course in Climatology, the fact that the AMS is now saying the same general thing as the climatologists means they are seeing the same things in their data and those data can always be checked by anyone watching the weather programs on the TV. Thus Jones’s rant about data forging goes down in flames.

    So does anybody know about the NOVA program?

  46. 296
    nigelj says:

    Nemesis @292

    “Yes, we need a higher purpose, than religious consumerism and greed for profit. Why do I sound like escapism? Is it, because I talk about sharing or is it, because I talk about letting go, consuming little, being humble, and, as an individual, preparing for leaving some day?”

    Well that’s a more specific statement on what you mean. There’s something to be said for consuming little, having humility etc. Its almost Buddhist.

    But would your consuming little extend to giving up your computer or smartphone you are typing on, that was the result of capitalism, competition, profit and some level of “greed” that disturbs you so much? I doubt it.

    I go back to what I said, its more about accepting capitalism, in terms of basic ideas of private ownership, innovation, investment and competition, and markets but ensuring there are better rules, boundaries, and mechanisms to help marginalised people, poor people etc. Its not perfect but nobody has come up with an alternative spelled out in DETAIL and that is workable.

    People are naturally a bit competitive and acquisitive and materialistic. Even if we could change this with genetic engineering or something it might not be wise and do more harm than good. Even egalitarian, cooperative societies play sports for goodness sake. Its not as simple as you think.

    “Sharing is a must. Without sharing, your family would not exist. Homo Sapiens is a family and without sharing, he will go extinct.”

    Of course it is within families and to be applauded. Or making donations to charity, or paying your fair share of taxes, but all these things already happen within western capitalist societies. If you want to go further give everything you own away, that’s your choice.Just remember a lot of people are not so nice and will take advantage of you.

    “We live some decades, if we are lucky, and then we are gone. So why hoard things, why hoard money, why follow the stupid road of greed? We need food, we need water….we don’t need private jets, we don’t need swiming pools, etc.

    Agreed. Nicely said. Hoarding can get out of control. But none of this is incompatible with some form of capitalism.

  47. 297
    nigelj says:

    Thomas @294 mentions zinc air batteries that sounds promising. Aluminium batteries are at experimental stage that charge within seconds, but have not as yet developed enough storage capacity.

    https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/super-fast-charging-aluminium-batteries-ready-to-take-on-lithium/8427.article

    Lithium batteries with double the current range are just a few years away.

    https://www.cnet.com/news/sekisui-chemical-claims-cheap-long-range-lithium-battery-tech/

    While I’m not a believer that technology will solve every problem, better batteries look promising. We might be on a revolutionary path where electric cars are actually end up better and cheaper than petrol cars, while Trump wants to go back to coal. I despair.

  48. 298
    MA Rodger says:

    Walt @295,
    The “Dimming the Sun” NOVA program was preceded by a BBC Horizon program which covered basically the same subject (BBC transcript, PBS transcript). While the substance of the BBC version was basically correct, its doom-laden certanties were not and were addressed by a post here at RealClimate. As for the status of the PBS version, I’ll leave comment on that to those living on the same side of te pond.

  49. 299
    Alastair B. McDonald says:

    Walt,
    There was a programme on the BBC called Global Dimming. Is that similar to what you remember? It was broadcast after 9/11 but I have heard nothing more of Global Dimming since then.

  50. 300
    zebra says:

    nigelj,

    “…define capitalism flexibly…”

    That’s the problem. Call what we are trying to do “the scientific socio-economic paradigm”, call it formal reasoning, call it (societal) engineering: If your language isn’t precise and consistent, it devolves into rhetoric and propaganda, and you can’t solve anything. We don’t define “lapse rate” flexibly, do we?

    The standard definition of capitalism is private ownership, competitive free markets, individual freedom, etc. Its rather descriptive and simply differentiates from state ownership. Its crude I guess, but there’s a fundamental difference between private and state ownership.

    Crude indeed– my point is that now both Right and Left can pick any element of that kind of laundry-list description and blame the negative effects on “capitalism” or “socialism”. A logical fallacy to be sure, but when has that ever stopped either side’s extremes?

    Ok, now, two points:

    1. You seem to have trouble with this time axis thing. Can you answer the question I posed to BPL about subsistence farmers? As another example, I read recently about the Germanic tradition of the journeymen, who travel around providing services but can only accept food and lodging for their work. They “own” their tools (means of production). But, they can’t accept money and so accumulate wealth. Are they “capitalists”?

    2. You say there is a fundamental difference between private and state ownership. Can you give an example of ownership that exists without the existence of a state?