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Unforced Variations: July 2018

Filed under: — group @ 1 July 2018

This month’s open thread for climate science related topics. The climate policy open thread is here.

307 Responses to “Unforced Variations: July 2018”

  1. 201
    Carrie says:

    At least 11 wildfires are raging inside the Arctic Circle as the hot, dry summer turns an abnormally wide area of Europe into a tinderbox.

    Swedish authorities say the risk of more fires in the days ahead is “extremely high” due to temperatures forecast in excess of 30C. Much of the northern hemisphere has sweltered in unusually hot weather in recent weeks, breaking records from Algeria to California and causing fires from Siberia to Yorkshire. Ukraine has been hit especially hard by wildfires.
    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/18/sweden-calls-for-help-as-arctic-circle-hit-by-wildfires

  2. 202
    MA Rodger says:

    NOAA has posted for June at with an anomaly of +0.75ºC, down on recent months but unlike GISTEMP & BEST sitting above Jan & Feb so not the lowest anomaly of the year-so-far. It is the 5th warmest June in the NOAA record (=3rd in GISTEMP, 3rd in BEST) sitting behind June 2016 (+0.91ºC), 2015 (+0.89ºC), 2017 (+0.79ºC), & 2014 (+0.76ºC), this a bit more of a spread than seen in GISTEMP & BEST. June 2018 is =57th warmest anomaly in the full all-month NOAA record.
    Now halfway though 2018, in the NOAA year-to-date table below, 2018 currently sits in 4th place (3rd in GISTEMMP & BEST).
    …….. Jan-Jun Ave … Annual Ave ..Annual ranking
    2016 .. +1.07ºC … … … +0.94ºC … … … 1st
    2017 .. +0.90ºC … … … +0.85ºC … … … 3rd
    2015 .. +0.86ºC … … … +0.91ºC … … … 2nd
    2018 .. +0.77ºC
    2010 .. +0.76ºC … … … +0.70ºC … … … 5th
    2014 .. +0.72ºC … … … +0.74ºC … … … 4th
    1998 .. +0.69ºC … … … +0.63ºC … … … 9th
    2007 .. +0.68ºC … … … +0.61ºC … … … 13th
    2002 .. +0.67ºC … … … +0.60ºC … … … 14th
    2005 .. +0.65ºC … … … +0.66ºC … … … 7th
    2013 .. +0.63ºC … … … +0.67ºC … … … 6th

    Over at Open Mind, Tamino has posted an update of the global temperature adjustment for Sol, Vol & ENSO, as first set out in Foster & Rahmstorf (2011). It is good to see such updates even though the take-away message (not surprisingly) is the same as in 2011 – “The warming rate is steady over the whole time interval.”

  3. 203
    Chuck Hughes says:

    Weaktorsays:
    . “But Columbo never gives up. He’s as persistent as a bulldog. And eventually, in the long run, he always wins. I like Bertolt Brecht also, another cigar smoker.”

    That’s funny right there! You’re NOTHING like Columbo. Columbo accepted FACTS and REALITY and PROOF whereas you ignore all of the above.

  4. 204
    Killian says:

    #196 Al Bundy said 176 Killian says: “human nature does not exist.”

    Alan: It surely does exist,

    You understand the difference between theory and fact, no?

  5. 205
    Carrie says:

    200 Killian, I was agreeing with your point about “recent research suggests” etc. is what I meant is beyond ludicrous.

    199 MA Rodger, well it beats being anal retentive and spending all your time building straw men, leaping to assumptions, inserting things not said nor intended, and pretending everyone’s and MY comments here are being presented as and INTENDED as masquerading as peer reviewed articles on Nature.com when they ARE NOT.

    Your comments are plainly idiotic snarky make believe presumptuous garbage without an ounce of truth to them let alone a fact or an ounce of evidence to support anything you have said. Basically your words are blathering discordant bullshit and intentional ad hominem ridicule – playing the person with zero good faith addressing the intent of the comments made in the correct context as provided/intended. I’d like to say more (I think you deserve it) but I’d prefer this post to get through the biased moderators here therefore no adhom or personally directed insults from my end – 100% directed at what you actually said.

    No supporting evidence is needed imo. I’ll leave it to everyone’s imagination what I really think.

  6. 206
    Carrie says:

    173 Al Bundy says:
    14 Jun 2018 at 9:04 AM

    “Folks comment here to get the flush of adrenaline that accompanies dissing someone one considers inferior.”
    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/05/if-you-doubt-that-the-amoc-has-weakened-read-this/comment-page-4/#comment-705900
    ………………..

    It has always been so. So when in Rome …..

  7. 207
    Victor says:

    203
    Chuck Hughes says:

    Weaktorsays:
    . “But Columbo never gives up. He’s as persistent as a bulldog. And eventually, in the long run, he always wins. I like Bertolt Brecht also, another cigar smoker.”

    That’s funny right there! You’re NOTHING like Columbo. Columbo accepted FACTS and REALITY and PROOF whereas you ignore all of the above.

    V: Can you be specific? What facts have I ignored? What realities? What proofs? If you list them I’ll be happy to respond.

  8. 208
    alan2102 says:

    204 Killian says: “You understand the difference between theory and fact, no?”

    Yes. And the context of the whole discussion is that the study of behavior and the mind is by its nature soft and fuzzy, unlike strictly physical sciences, and math. There are few perfectly clear-cut facts, like there are in the physical world; which is not to say that psychology is a bunch of BS, only that the study of it is not, and can never be, the same as study in other, harder areas. Which is part of what I was alluding to when I asserted that, though human nature does exist, it is very hard to say what it IS, with most formulations being badly off the beam. Such is to be expected in a soft/fuzzy area of study. Love also exists, but it cannot be quantified, and it is very hard to say precisely what it IS.

  9. 209
    Carrie says:

    More places than Sweden are having ‘skyrockety events’ this summer.

    As the 2018 fire season rages in eastern and northern Russia, the blazes have sent up smoke laden with gases and small particles known as aerosols— some of which are traveling half-way around the world. On July 3, 2018, a cluster of fires in Russia’s Sakha province produced a smoke plume that traveled more than 8,000 kilometers (5,000 miles) in a span of 11 days.

    According to Hiren Jethva, an atmospheric scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Russia’s summer fires have been more intense this year than in the past. Satellite data shows that Central Russia saw 7,200 fires during the first half of July, about four times as many fires as detected during the same period between 2013 and 2017.
    https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/92439/from-russia-with-aerosols

    Isn’t science and technology, and the experts who drive it, great.

  10. 210
    Carrie says:

    208 alan2102, I highly recommend if time allows digging into google scholar for advances in Cognitive Sciences and how the Mind works the last 3 decades. Nothing is soft/fuzzy about it but grounded in physical based credible research and repeatable theory experiments. Also explains a lot about ‘psychology’ ‘social sciences’ and ‘religion’ more. Even why love is so, well, lovely. :)

    201 Carrie says: “Much of the northern hemisphere has sweltered in unusually hot weather in recent weeks, breaking records from Algeria to California and causing fires from Siberia to Yorkshire. (and) Ukraine…”

    Sorry, Carrie, or whatever your name is, what was that you said again? I heard that Greece and Sweden were “cooking” but didn’t know about the others. Hey, thanks for the heads up, I might go and check that out further and see what the real scientists are reporting.

  11. 211
    Killian says:

    alan, youcannot assert a theory that is utterly unverifiable exists and expect to be taken seriously.

    Or have you not realized “human nature” is dependent on conditions? I have already made the point 290k years of our existence *were not* like today.

  12. 212
    Carrie says:

    I was watching a doco recently about CFCs. One thing was said I wasn’t previously aware of in that when earlier atmospheric monitoring was happening in the Antarctic the record keeping system the scientists used was automatically (by assumption) discarding very high CFC readings as being errors or outliers. Therefore over time the data being passed on was actually under-reported. Someone eventually noticed this they corrected for it and suddenly everyone realized the CFC growth (and ozone hole) was a far more serious problem than they had ever imagined.

    Here’s a new paper on CH4 in Arctic not yet peer-reviewed and it’s suggesting maybe this is a similar situation – under-reporting of in-situ CH4 emissions. This is important because it is that ground based Data which is then being fed into assumptions for climate models by others. (if I understand what they have said and they are correct)

    Characterisation of short-term extreme methane fluxes related to
    non-turbulent mixing above an Arctic permafrost ecosystem
    Carsten Schaller et al (Germany)
    https://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2018-277/
    Full Text Doc
    https://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2018-277/acp-2018-277.pdf

    short extract- CH4 ebullition events thus violate the steady state assumption for EC, with the potential to systematically bias flux calculations because of an incorrect Reynolds decomposition. As a consequence, high emission events are likely to be discarded from the time series as very low quality data, or outliers, which has the potential to systematically underestimate long-term CH4 budgets (Wik et al., 2013; Bastviken et al., 2011; Glaser et al., 2004).
    ……………..

    The paper (remember no final peer review completed yet) suggests solutions for this problem. Like most papers it is a complex issue and they need to do more work on it. But I thought it an interesting subject. If the wrong assumptions for fluxes @ X temps growth and seasonal changes like shorter winters longer hotter summers and further changes in local wind conditions and so on that produce CH4 fluxes are plugged into Models there is far less chance they will provide accurate longer term projections at scale.

    Human decisions to discard outliers and relying upon algorithms that do this automatically may not always be the correct approach – It’s been proven before it isn’t. Seems that without such data collections being closely monitored by real world hands on ‘observations’ and ‘checks’ to support the assumptions of discarding outliers were correct.

    I’m reminded of course of the many number of days the last 3 months that MLO has discarded their daily Data giving a Non-record for days on end. Makes me wonder but I expect at some point MLO will explain what’s happened this 2018 springtime on their website, which reminds I should go check again.

  13. 213
    Carrie says:

    PS 212 “Someone eventually noticed this they corrected for it and suddenly everyone realized the CFC growth (and ozone hole) was a far more serious problem than they had ever imagined.” … I think they were the same scientists who won the Nobel Prize for their CFC/Ozone work.
    …………………………….

    If I understand the basic science of climate change correctly ongoing increases in GHG caused by both LUC and the burning of fossil fuels leads to higher GHG atmospheric concentrations which then leads to both more ocean acidification and higher global and regional temperatures plus major changes in extreme weather events such as extreme storms, flooding and droughts (and faster rising temperature anomalies at the poles eg inside the Arctic Circle) which appears to be what may be occurring right now yet again this time in Europe as reported here in this media article:

    Crop failure and bankruptcy threaten farmers as drought grips Europe – Abnormally hot temperatures continue to wreak devastation across northern and central parts of the continent

    States of emergency have been declared in Latvia and Lithuania, while the sun continues to bake Swedish fields that have received only 12% of their normal rainfall.

    The abnormally hot temperatures – which have topped 30C in the Arctic Circle – are in line with climate change trends, according to the World Meteorological Organization. And as about 50 wildfires rage across Sweden, no respite from the heatwave is yet in sight.

    If anything, the situation is even worse in Poland, Belarus and the Czech Republic, where vegetation stress has taken hold. In parts of Germany, some farmers are reportedly destroying arid crops. After June was declared the second warmest on record, the European commission pledged to help farmers with a raft of measures …

    The European Drought Observatory (EDO) has described the drought as “an extensive and severe anomaly” affecting Scandinavia, Scotland, Ireland, the Baltics (incl Ukraine), the Netherlands and northern Germany.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/20/crop-failure-and-bankruptcy-threaten-farmers-as-drought-grips-europe

    I think things will get very tricky when events such as this are occurring simultaneously in Europe, Asia, the Middle East and North America.

    In other news Elon Musk singed a deal to manufacture Tesla EVs in China; we are still uncertain what’s going to happen with the AMOC into the future; or when the Arctic Sea Ice will drop below 1 mln2kms let alone what might happen to the nth hemi weather and climate after that.

  14. 214
    Steven Emmerson says:

    Victor@207 wrote:

    Can you be specific? What facts have I ignored? What realities? What proofs? If you list them I’ll be happy to respond.

    Answer: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.

    In order to be taken seriously, please provide references to the peer-reviewed, scientific literature in your response.

  15. 215
    Mike Roddy says:

    Killian, #187, thanks for your info on my land use post. It’s an endlessly complex subject, and difficult to tie down with hard data, due to big error bars. That’s one reason it’s neglected. The other reason is corruption.

    My specific interest is: Why are we still building houses out of two by fours in the 21st century?

    I don’t go to RC often, feel free to follow up directly to my email address
    if you like.

    mike.greenframe@gmail.com

  16. 216
    nigelj says:

    Regarding these strange but interesting comments that human nature doesn’t exist, and if it does it can be changed, and psychology is a ‘fuzzy’ science.

    Human nature obviously exists, because we can observe a series of common behaviours, thoughts and feelings that people have and we label this human nature.

    Its important to understand whats going on because it shapes our responses to climate and environmental problems.

    Can human nature be changed? Human nature is known by science to be caused by a complex combination of genetics, environment and learning. By analogy dogs were domesticated by breeding for certain behaviours and manipulating their environments has an effect as well. However its true to say the whole thing is not fully understood so is somewhat fuzzy.

    We don’t know how to genetically engineer humans and unlearning things is difficult. But we know optimal early environment has considerable impact on children’s nature in later life so we can affect human nature to some degree, and enhance desirable traits like peacefulness, cooperation, and minimise aggression etc.

    While unlearning bad habits is difficult it is certainly not impossible.

    But we might have to be careful we don’t remove all self centred instincts completely, or people might not have the will to get out of bed in the morning.

    Obviously what humans also do is try to control human nature with rules, laws, and various customs.

    But its complicated. That’s evolution for you, it is a complicated combination of environment, learning and genetics all operating is dynamic, interrelated ways.

    It does suggest we can at least push human nature in desirable directions and this can help resolve environmental problems.

  17. 217
    Carrie says:

    Please add Australia
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/19/you-count-your-blessings-farm-families-battling-drought-photo-essay

    and Iran to the list of severe drought affected nations

    Exacerbating that unrest is the drought. The Iran Meteorological Organization estimates 97 percent of the country faced some form of drought. “Although Iran has a history of drought, over the last decade, Iran has experienced its most prolonged, extensive and severe drought in over 30 years,” said a recent report by the Food and Agriculture Organization, a United Nations agency.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/01/videos-show-gunfire-amid-iran-protests-over-water-scarcity.html

  18. 218
    Carrie says:

    My apologies I overlooked Japan heatwave kills 30

    Nearly 10,000 people have been treated at hospitals for heat-related illnesses over the past week, according to The Mainichi.

    Temperatures soared to the highest levels of the year on Wednesday as the temperature peaked at 40.7 C (105.3 F) in the city of Tajimi. This marked the highest observed temperature in the Japan in nearly five years.
    with video
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/heat-wave-turns-deadly-in-japan-following-historic-flooding/70005503

    Japan Flooding Death Toll Rises to 200 While More Than 7,000 Remain in Shelters July 12 2018
    https://weather.com/news/news/2018-07-11-deadly-floods-southwestern-japan-deaths

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/20/heatwave-grips-japan-after-deadly-floods

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-22/japan-heatwave-kills-30-and-sees-thousands-in-hospital/10022488

    In case you missed it: Tornado devastates Marshalltown, Iowa; Tragic duck boat accident kills 17 in Missouri

    A town in Iowa was severely damaged by a tornado on Thursday, while strong storms led to a tour boat disaster in Missouri that killed 17.

  19. 219
    Killian says:

    “though human nature does exist, it is very hard to say what it IS

    Guarantee: You cannot find anything, anywhere stating as scientific fact there is such a thing as “human nature.” Further, if there is, the 290k years we spent prior to modernity would reflect it – thus the intact aboriginal groups – and not anything related to modern times. This time period is aberrant, not the norm, and the last 200 years all the more so.

    Done with this. The sky is not mint green 24/7, and human nature is not a fact.

  20. 220

    Still more phenology:

    https://www.cbc.ca/radio/quirks/july-21-2018-bread-came-before-agriculture-driving-drowsiness-and-more-1.4753031/migrating-geese-are-losing-the-race-north-and-their-chicks-are-paying-the-price-1.4753034

    (Dunno about that link…)

    “Climate change, however, is causing the barnacle goose – a smaller European cousin of the Canada goose – to race north far faster than normal; as a result, the birds are arriving exhausted and depleted, and their chicks are suffering…”

  21. 221
    MA Rodger says:

    Carrie @205.
    Sadly, I never expected anything less (or more) from you than that string of adjectives accompanied by zero reasoning.

    And turning to the comments in-thread you have authored in recent days (#201-#209), comprising 50% of the comments and 60% of the verbage, what gems of misunderstanding do they present? (Here I ignore your more obvious nonsense.)

    You expend quite some time describing wildfires in Arctic lands which feature in Arctic discussions. While these do appear remarkable events, ironically they are appearing alongside comment on the more normal arctic matters which this summer, for instance NSIDC describe in their 17th July Arctic Sea Ice News post as being “unremarkable thus far.” So the Arctic wildfires are remarkable but nothng more without being put into context. As for the record-breaking heat, in Sweden the temperature anomalies are much reduced in recent days from the +5C that stretched over the whole country. And if as described by Carrie @201 that “much of the northern hemisphere has sweltered in unusually hot weather in recent weeks,” should we expect to see record July NH temperature anomalies this year? Or not?

    Also you mis-represent Schaller et al (2018) by using it to suggest the NOAA ESRL CO2 readings at MLO are failing to properly capture the atmospheric CO2 levels and imply that hidden within their methods, there could be skyrocketing CO2 levels going undiscovered. How do you make this leap between the two? How is it that you consider measurements of local GHG emissions, as considered by Schaller et al, as being relevant to measurement of aggregate atmospheric GHG levels as carried out by ESRL (& also Scripps) at MLO?

  22. 222
    mike says:

    Last Week

    July 8 – 14, 2018 409.16 ppm
    July 8 – 14, 2017 406.98 ppm

    Noisy number.

    June 2018: 410.79 ppm
    June 2017: 408.84 ppm

    slightly less noisy number.

    The numbers in 2018 have me wondering if we are starting to see some change in the rate of acceleration of CO2 increase in the atmosphere. Wouldn’t that be great? Too soon to say imho. Also, cruising along on this planet with CO2 sats above 410ppm is not going to be a fun time. I watch the US political battle with revulsion as one party does almost everything it can to drive more global warming and environmental degradation and I find it hard not to feel discouraged, but there are large trends in the works that might help us slow the CO2 climb. Next EN is going to be quite alarming I think with lots of heat deaths around the globe. A lot more folks are starting to understand that AGW is not something that is going to jam us up in the future, it’s jamming us up here and now. Ask the Swedes about forest fires in the Arctic circle. Still hoping for the best. I would love to see us stabilize CO2 sats in ocean and atmosphere in my lifetime, but it seems quite unlikely.

  23. 223
    Nemesis says:

    It’s getting hotter and hotter and drier and drier in Germany and in large parts of Europe- the longest, driest summer I’ve ever seen and summer isn’t over yet, we might see almost 40°C this week :) What will it be like in 10, 20, 30 years from now?… end of comment.

  24. 224
    nigelj says:

    Carrie @213, the current heatwave in the northern hemisphere is apparently a result of a wobbling jet stream causing several stalled anticyclones. The Guardian did an article on it, and noted such events have happened before in the 1970’s, but climate scientists think that they will become more intense with climate change increasing the background temperature.

    I also recall reading that climate change itself may be causing changes in the jet stream so could well be an underlying cause of the slow moving anticyclones. So yeah, expect large scale heatwaves to be more common.

  25. 225
  26. 226
    Carrie says:

    CBS News July 23, 2018, 7:04 PM
    Extreme weather wallops both coasts with flooding, scorching heat, wildfires

    Flooding has inundated streets in Pennsylvania, with some people needing to be rescued from their homes. In Schuylkill County, floodwaters turned streets into a fast-moving rivers. The town of Tremont declared a disaster emergency. First responders dove into action, scanning for people in need and making several rescues.

    The rain along the East Coast follows a weekend of absolute downpours. The National Weather Service says weather conditions are not going to let up anytime soon, with heavy rain expected through at least the middle of the week.

    In the West, temperatures are expected to be even higher Tuesday, making the battle against wildfires in California all the more difficult, CBS News’ Jamie Yuccas reports from Phoenix.

    A massive relentless wildfire keeps raging in the California Sierra, threatening hundreds of homes and burning perilously close to Yosemite National Park. More than 3,000 firefighters are confronting winds and high heat. Temperatures on the fire lines are soaring to well over 100 degrees.

    It is just the beginning of a heat wave that could bring the summer’s hottest temperatures so far to Southern California and Arizona. The temperature hit 120 degrees in Palm Springs (48.9C) and Phoenix may smash its record of 114. By Tuesday, temperatures could hit 117 (47.2C) .

    more https://www.cbsnews.com/news/extreme-weather-temperatures-wildfires-flooding-forecast-today-2018-07-23/

    I haven’t yet heard of any mention regards climate change issues.

  27. 227
    Killian says:

    Carrie, re recent global temps: Korea has been scorching. 39.9C in one city. Record morning temp, record in Seoul… Ten deaths..

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/deadly-heat-wave-hovers-japan-south-korea-56750471

    Changma (monsoon season) was ridiculously short. There will be drought,I’d think.

  28. 228
    Killian says:

    221

    She didnt misuse Schaller in any way. She correctly described it, then used it as an analogy to a similar data set and wondered *if* a similar management of data, and thus underreporting of data *might* be happening.

    She drew no link, drew no conclusion. She presented a hypothesis/supposition.

    You are, ironically, the one misrepresenting.

  29. 229
    Killian says:

    40.2 in the mid-southern area of Korea today.

  30. 230
    Carrie says:

    49 killed, 160+ injured by wildfires in Greece

    Multiple wildfires across Greece’s Attica region have claimed the lives of at least 49 people, firefighters say. With dozens of others injured, authorities have warned of further casualties and pleaded for an EU-wide response.

    Around half of the victims are from the village of Mati, a holiday resort on the east coast of the Attica region, just 30km from Athens, the local fire brigade said. Local media also report that some 168 people were injured across the country.

    “Some settlements have disappeared from the map,” Mayor of Rafina Pikermiou, Vangelis Bournos told local newspapers.

    example short https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8kj1_N5EI8

    long https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkhxcr1YhUg

  31. 231
    Mr. Know It All says:

    I heard a report that Portland, Oregon will have 8 or 9 days in a row of over 90 degree temperatures. Fairly unusual – I was about to give in and call “uncle” on the AGW debate, but then the report said that the record was 10 days in a row in 1941 when CO2 was barely higher than pre-industrial levels. :)

    Above we read about tornados in Iowa, droughts in Iran. Whodathunkit?! OK, I know the answer – everybody! And fires above the Arctic circle. Who knew – wood burns up there too! :)

    215 – Mike
    What should we use to make houses?

  32. 232

    KIA 29: I heard a report that Portland, Oregon will have 8 or 9 days in a row of over 90 degree temperatures. Fairly unusual – I was about to give in and call “uncle” on the AGW debate, but then the report said that the record was 10 days in a row in 1941 when CO2 was barely higher than pre-industrial levels.

    BPL: You’ll never learn the distinction between weather and climate, will you?

  33. 233

    “1941 when CO2 was barely higher than pre-industrial levels.”

    To be precise, 310.8 ppm, according to the Vostok core data, or 10% above pre-Industrial, give or take. And three years after Guy Callendar published the first paper documenting a global warming trend and attributing it to human activity–almost certainly erroneously, as it turned out, but the paper was seminal in multiple ways.

    https://hubpages.com/education/Global-Warming-Science-And-The-Wars

  34. 234

    There will be a day of climate action this September 8, preceding Governor Brown’s climate conference for sub-national governments.

    You may wish to mark your calendars now:

    https://riseforclimate.org/

  35. 235
    Ray Ladbury says:

    Mr. KIA: “What should we use to make houses?”

    If we can find something as impenetrable to wind and rain as your head is to evidence and logic, that’s got my vote!

  36. 236
    Hank Roberts says:

    hat tip tp Soylent News:

    | The Latest Chapter in Earth’s History: The Meghalayan Age

    | https://soylentnews.org/article.pl?sid=18/07/21/0046219
    +——————————————-+

    [0]takyon writes:

    [1]Welcome to the Meghalayan Age – a new phase in history

    The official history of Earth has a new chapter – and we are in it. Geologists have classified the last 4,200 years as being a distinct age in the story of our planet. They are calling it the Meghalayan Age, the onset of which was marked by a mega-drought that crushed a number of civilisations worldwide.

    The International Chronostratigraphic Chart, the famous diagram depicting the timeline for Earth’s history (seen on many classroom walls) will be updated. It should be said, however, there is disquiet in the scientific community at the way the change has been introduced. Some researchers feel there has been insufficient discussion on the matter since the Meghalayan was first raised as an idea in a [2]scholarly paper [DOI: 10.1002/jqs.2565] [[3]DX] six years ago.

    […] The Meghalayan, the youngest stage, runs from 4,200 years ago to the present. It began with a destructive drought, whose effects lasted two centuries, and severely disrupted civilisations in Egypt, Greece, Syria, Palestine, Mesopotamia, the Indus Valley, and the Yangtze River Valley. It was likely triggered by shifts in ocean and atmospheric circulation. The Meghalayan Age is unique among the many intervals of the geologic timescale in that its beginning coincides with a global cultural event produced by a global climatic event, says Stanley Finney, professor of geological sciences at Long Beach State University and Secretary-General of the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS), which ratified the ICS proposal.

    The middle phase of the Holocene will be referred to as the Northgrippian, and runs from 8,300 years ago up to the start of the Meghalayan. The onset for this age was an abrupt cooling, attributed to vast volumes of freshwater from melting glaciers in Canada running into the North Atlantic and disrupting ocean currents. The oldest phase of the Holocene – the exit from the ice age – will be known as the Greenlandian.

    Scientists are still working on defining the (ongoing) [4]Athropocene and some have criticized this new definition.

    Related: [5]For the Second Time, We Are Witnessing a New Geological Epoch: The Anthropocene [6]Crystals Win in the Anthropocene: 208 Manmade Minerals Identified [7]Anthropocene News: Scientists Warn of “Sixth Mass Extinction”, the Era of “Biological Annihilation”

  37. 237
    Victor says:

    214 Steven Emmerson says:

    Victor@207 wrote:

    Can you be specific? What facts have I ignored? What realities? What proofs? If you list them I’ll be happy to respond.

    Answer: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.

    V: Very amusing. I’m assuming you’re not serious. But just in case you are: The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report is neither a fact, nor a reality (other than its status as a huge chunk of paper), nor a proof. This is the sort of response one would expect from a child. The request was for something “specific.” You might want to look up that word.

  38. 238
    S.B. Ripman says:

    A couple of interesting factoids in the local press:

    “Early in July, Quriyat, Oman, recorded an overnight low of 108.7 degrees, the highest “low” temperature in world history.”

    “The Electric Reliability Council of Texas said electrical demand reached 73,259 megawatts on Thursday (7/19/18), breaking their previous all-time demand due to record-breaking heat throughout Texas and neighboring states. To put that in perspective, the record demand in California is 50,270 megawatts, according to the California ISO.”

  39. 239
    Bill Duncan says:

    Someone has switched the coin while we weren’t looking and it now keeps coming up tails with wildfires and heatwaves right across the Northern hemisphere in a La Niña year. Are we starting to see the new normal?

  40. 240
    Ric Merritt says:

    Mr KIA, currently #231, offers a bit of wry, knowing, smiley-face humor about how consecutive hot days in a single city do not settle what he calls the “AGW debate”, and what most of us hereabouts call the Contest Between Reality and Illusion. Well, duh, of course.

    To turn serious for a moment, Mr KIA, how many decades of global surface temps rising at 1 or 2 deg C per century *would* it take for you to “cry uncle in the AGW debate”? We already know 4 decades doesn’t do it for you.

  41. 241
    Al Bundy says:

    KillingInaction,
    You mentioned the dust bowl years and maintained that 1934 was the hottest on record in the US. Nope, according to SlepticalScience, “The year 1934 was a very hot year in the United States, ranking sixth behind 2012, 2016, 2015, 2006, and 1998.”

    From The Encyclopedia of Weather and Climate Change:

    You asked about

    wildfire?
    Increases from 1950s to 2000s: Americas: about 2000% Europe: 2000% Africa: 500% Asia: 800% Oceania: 800% (These are estimates from eyeballing a graph pg 443)

    Floods?
    Increase from 8 disastrous floods in 1960 to 170 in 2004 (pg 435)

    Both graphs show consistent increases over time.

    Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes? (first number is 1975-1989, second is 1990-2007)
    East Pacific 38 50
    West Pacific 89 120
    North Pacific 18 26
    SW Pacific 10 21
    North Indian 1 7
    South Indian 22 51
    Hmm, North Atlantic isn’t on the chart. Eyeballed pg 431

    Anything else you want to… …Know (It’s All… …out there.)

  42. 242
    Dan says:

    re: 231. How many times do climate scientists have to tell you to a. learn the fundamental difference between weather and climate, and b. stop cherry-picking data and locations? You do it again and again to show you never learn anything. Stop flaunting scientific ignorance.

  43. 243
    nigelj says:

    Mr KIA @231

    “What should we use to make houses? (instead of 4 by 2 timber framing)

    There’s traditional brick masonry construction with double skin brickwork, and a reinforced concrete core in earthquake zones. The roofs would still need to be framed up of course, but you could use light rhs steel framing instead of timber.

    You also have straw bale and also mud brick construction. These make use of easily available plentiful resources with a low carbon footprint, and these houses have thick walls, so good thermal properties which you yourself were concerned about.

    Probably best to continue this discussion on forced variations.

  44. 244
    Al Bundy says:

    KillingInaction: What should we use to make houses?

    AB: Gosh, so many options. I like SIPs, which are thin engineered wood panels sandwiching thick foam. They’re incredibly strong, insulate like nothing else, totally air and moisture tight, and erect in a jiffy.

    Steel is a decent option since it’s recyclable and doesn’t rot, but it has all the same insulating and infiltration issues as 2x6s.

    If wood is used then engineered wood is vastly superior to dimension lumber. It can be made of inferior stock and is always true. Plus, it uses less of wood since joists and rafters can be thick on edge and thin in the middle. Thus, you can thin out a tract while leaving all the decent trees and end up with fuel and building material. Once you’re done, you simply spread the ash back in the forest.

  45. 245
    Carrie says:

    228 Killian, thank you. Unfortunate that extremely biased people who make unfounded assumptions (not there) then create giant straw men out of those assumptions errors then still cannot be told anything that would make a difference because they don’t want to listen – there is more than one Mr Know It All habitual denier of reality on this forum.

  46. 246
    Carrie says:

    231 Mr. Know It All asks Mike @215 “What should we use to make houses?”

    I have an idea – Cut down all the trees for timber inside the arctic circle before they all burn down? :)

  47. 247
    Carrie says:

    +75 dead in Greece wild fires now

  48. 248
    Victor says:

    230 Carrie says:

    “49 killed, 160+ injured by wildfires in Greece

    Multiple wildfires across Greece’s Attica region have claimed the lives of at least 49 people, firefighters say. With dozens of others injured, authorities have warned of further casualties and pleaded for an EU-wide response. . . [snip]”

    V: Calm down, Carrie. Here’s what happened there back in 1902, courtesy of Tony Heller: https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/2018-07-24073146_shadow.png

    There’s more — lots more, thanks to the industrious Mr. Heller: https://realclimatescience.com/2018/07/climate-change-superstition-is-here-it-is-catastrophic/

    All documented from photocopies of actual media reports.

  49. 249

    KIA, #231–

    “What should we use to make houses?”

    An overview, from a UK perspective:

    https://www.the-self-build-guide.co.uk/house-construction-methods.html

  50. 250
    Carrie says:

    Posted on July 23, 2018 by Tamino about Snow

    “With the oppressive heat striking across the world …. This has consequences. It reduces the available water supply in those states which depend on the Colorado River for part of their water supply (and there are many such states). It also has other environmental consequences, of which I’m not aware, but I suspect that the increase in wildfire in the west is one of those. These effects are bad for human society. For us.”

    https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/07/23/global-warming-let-it-snow/#more-9925