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Unforced variations: Nov 2018

Filed under: — group @ 1 November 2018

This month’s open thread on climate science issues.

A lot of interest in the new Resplandy et al paper (WaPo), with some exploration of the implications on twitter i.e.

and

Meanwhile, the CMIP6 model output is starting to come out…

232 Responses to “Unforced variations: Nov 2018”

  1. 151
    Killian says:

    re: Speth

    Interesting that Hank is posting Speth’s incomplete, insufficient work while never being supportive of the fact I said the same thing about utilities and provided a means to do it over ten years ago.

    Build Out: The Home vs. the Grid.

    Use Fee and dividend to fund it. People-owned utility supply.

    What was that about prophets…?

  2. 152
    Chris says:

    Shower thoughts…

    What I did not mention was also the oxygen concentration in the atmosphere, which is decreasing during periods of climate change, due to the fact that the molecule is consumed when greenhouse gases break down in the atmosphere. And I read that the dinosaurs where so big, in part because of the higher concentrations of oxygen at those times, and then there is the phenomena of dwarfing observed during records of rapid climate changes. Also hydroxyl radical is gaining more interest … _hydroxyl radicals are produced from the decomposition of hydroperoxides (ROOH) or, in atmospheric chemistry, by the reaction of excited atomic oxygen with water._ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroxyl_radical

  3. 153
    MA Rodger says:

    mike @148,
    There is a set of wobbles that show CO2 and temperature dance to the tune of ENSO. But there is a bit of a lag between the different wobbles. Generally CO2 wobbles coming about 7 months behind temperature, suggesting the impact of a warm October should not be seen yet. Mind, there is no ENSO waggling CO2 or temperature at the moment so the recent MLO readings are not down to ENSO. While the bottom of the annual CO2 cycle was flatter than normal, once the annual rise in the CO2 cycle begins in ernest, the week-on-week CO2 levels can get very noisy so interpreting the big meaty rises of recent weeks is not straightforward in the short term.

  4. 154
    Hank Roberts says:

    Speth’s incomplete, insufficient work while never being supportive of the fact I said the same thing

    Yeah, Killian, you remind us that you were always the first to think of anything. But somehow you never get the credit, do you? What could you be doing wrong?

  5. 155
    Carrie says:

    Cleantechnica is going all skyrockety on us now! tsk tsk

    Or is it Nature Communications? hard to tell, who to believe?

    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/16/we-are-so-screwed-study-warns-of-5-degree-celsius-warming-by-2100/
    OR
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07223-9

    Time to stop pretending. ( ? ? ? )
    The human race has conspired to exterminate itself, at least on this planet. According to a study authored by Yann Robidou du Pont of the Australian-German Climate & Energy College at the University of Melbourne and Malte Meinshausen of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, if we continue to do what we are doing to address a warming climate, we might as well all lie back, sip our favorite alcoholic beverage, and party like its 1999, because we will all be dead soon and so will be our planet.

    Where Does Your Country Rank?

    The study, entitled “Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions pledges,” was published on November 16, 2018 in the journal Nature Communications. It claims that if China, Russia, and Canada continue with their halfhearted measures to rein in rising global temperatures, the world will be 5º C hotter by 2100 than it is today 5º Celsius, chums, is a death sentence for humanity and virtually every living creature on the Earth.

    But there is good news. The current policies of the United States and Australia would only kill most of the world’s population by permitting an increase in average global temperatures of only 4º C.

    Europe is doing a better job than most parts of the world but even its efforts will lead to a rise of barely 3º C, enough to cause the death of billions of people.

    Congratulations, Europe. You are the best of the worst!!!!!!!

    Of all the developed nations, India is doing the best job. Its policies, if enacted globally, would limit temperature rise to just over 2º C. You can see where every country falls relative to each other on the interactive map at Paris Equity Check.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/16/we-are-so-screwed-study-warns-of-5-degree-celsius-warming-by-2100/

    but, but, but the future is still in our hands … right?

  6. 156
    Carrie says:

    “You may want to check the figure that I added to the edited version, which is below at the very end of the Communication. Note that the eventual global warming, after fast and slow feedbacks have reached full fruition, is +3.5°C
    for CO2 = 400 ppm.”
    http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2018/20181019_FromXianWithLove.pdf

    Ha, what a crazy radical this guy is! Who’d be silly enough to believe that?

  7. 157
    Killian says:

    Re #153 MA Rodger said mike @148,
    There is a set of wobbles that show CO2 and temperature dance to the tune of ENSO. But there is a bit of a lag between the different wobbles. Generally CO2 wobbles coming about 7 months behind temperature, suggesting the impact of a warm October should not be seen yet. Mind, there is no ENSO waggling CO2 or temperature at the moment so the recent MLO readings are not down to ENSO. While the bottom of the annual CO2 cycle was flatter than normal, once the annual rise in the CO2 cycle begins in earnest, the week-on-week CO2 levels can get very noisy so interpreting the big meaty rises of recent weeks is not straightforward in the short term.

    All of which leads one (me) to wonder how we get a **weekly** avg that is nearly 4ppm above the previous year w/o an EN…

    It’s this sort of signal I pay attention to, and that, when conjoined with other signals, gives one insight. Will be watching… Could be an extremely bad signal that natural systems are finally kicking into easily measurable gears.

  8. 158
  9. 159
    Killian says:

    Re #149 Nemesis said That’s the picture after only 8 months of drought^^… Com on, Germany used to be one of the wettest european countries, we are in the midst of november, the wettest month statistically, but this looks like Death Valley for real :’D

    Those, who feel themselves safe and wealthy, will be hit hardest in the mid- and longterm.

    This is something I have said for quite a while; the further you have to fall, the harder you fall. It comes down to fragility and being utterly unskilled. Wealthy nations may be quite surprised when their very fragile systems fall apart and subsistence farmers are still eating.

    I think we can broadly think of the “poor” in two very rough categories: Dependent and subsistence communities. The former left their former lives completely behind, sucked into the “modern” economy, while the latter maintain some part or all of their indigenous cultures. The former will be badly affected as things worsen, but the latter provide the pattern the rest of us must follow.

    A lot of people are screwing up this analysis.

  10. 160

    Hello all,

    I’ve a question about the controversial geoengineering proposal of dumping SO2 into the atmosphere 10km up.

    Can someone tell me whether SEAWATER being dumped at that altitude would be a better choice?

    The idea would be for a 747 (or equivalent) outfitted for high altitude flying be filled up with as much seawater as it can carry. It would then dump the seawater above the tropopause. The seawater would turn into cloud and the salt and water would separate. The idea would be that the clouds formed would increase albedo but not have the same “acid rain” effects that SO2 would have.

  11. 161
    Killian says:

    Re #154 Hank Roberts said Speth’s incomplete, insufficient work while never being supportive of the fact I said the same thing

    Yeah, Killian, you remind us that you were always the first to think of anything.

    That is not what I said. I wondered why, since you’ve heard this for years from a co-participant here, you only responded ten years after someone posted it on this blog. That in no way implies I was the first person to ever make a similar suggestion.

    But somehow you never get the credit, do you? What could you be doing wrong?

    Telling the wrong people, i.e., you, et al., given provenance is irrefutable. I.e, if there’s no Ph.D, you all dismiss what you hear; if you dislike someone, all the more.

    The better question is, why do you only listen to certain people as opposed to the content, Hank, et al.? What’s the source of your bias? Which leads to a greater question, in a time of emergency, why do you still ignore demonstrated skill in favor of your biases, and the same question applies to the world at large.

  12. 162
    MA Rodger says:

    Killian @157,
    As this recent rise in the MLO 12-month CO2 increase is the “sort of signal [you] pay attention to,” what was you grand “insight” regarding the “**weekly** avg” MLO 12-month CO2 increases Feb-April 2014?
    Back then as you will doubtless recall, ENSO wasn’t doing much (neither MIMO3.4 nor MEI) and there were no big global temperature wobbles (although the Feb 2014 anomaly was a bit chilly). Yet we saw weekly MLO CO2 with 12-month rises ramping up from a low of 0.8ppm/yr up to a whopping 4.6ppm/yr over a couple of months (as opposed to the 1.0ppm/yr to 3.8ppm/yr over three months we see so far today).
    So you must surely have some grand “insight” to share with us regarding this dramaitc 2014 event.

    Myself, I just marvel at the lack of wobbliness we see in the Scripps & NOAA MLO CO2 data given what it is measuring – the whole global carbon cycle from just a single point on the planet. You may be familiar with this NASA modellng of column CO2 levels through a year. Watch the eddies (resulting from the “large scale weather patterns” according to the commentary) passing over Hawaii. (To get your bearings, Hawaii is due South of Alaska & due West of Florida.)

  13. 163
    Lawrence Coleman says:

    137 Carrie:
    Thanks Carrie. While that link might refer to the last el- nino, it shows that the sensitivity of carbon sinks is most crucial in understanding the CO2 graphs. This still implies that fuure warming will be largely attributed to the ongoing efficiencies of our natural carbon sinks.
    The amazon now is a grave cause for concern with the election of brazil’s hard right wing leader.
    Nature is now in the drivers seat!

  14. 164
    Nemesis says:

    @Killian, #159

    You know, I have been taught about some crude form of (social) Darwinism aka “only the strong survive” in school, at work ect. Yeah, it’s easy to teach others about tough shit while sitting in an armchair, feeling comfy, well-fed and happy- until tough shit knocks on the door. Beware all you well-fed big talkers in the rich countries:

    The djungle is real, gnahaha 8D

  15. 165
    Nemesis says:

    @Lawrence Coleman, #163

    ” Nature is now in the drivers seat!”

    Nature has always been in the drivers seat :)

  16. 166
    Hank Roberts says:

    something I have said for quite a while; the further you have to fall, the harder you fall.

    Newton’s Second Law.

  17. 167
    nigelj says:

    “Wealthy nations may be quite surprised when their very fragile systems fall apart and subsistence farmers are still eating.” (due to climate change)

    I doubt it. Droughts and other crop losses already cause subsistence farmers to have famines. Climate change can only make this even worse.

    Wealthy countries survive natural disasters much better because they have resources to spare, good education, and systems to cope with disasters and changing circumstances. They will adapt to climate change, but it will still be painful and they should of course still stop using fossil fuels.

  18. 168
    Omega Centauri says:

    One Salient @160
    Seawater wouldn’t leave the longterm shortwave scatterers in the stratosphere long enough (I the the sulfur has a residence time of a couple of years). [Well maybe some due to salt] Water (actually ice) clouds in the stratosphere would have a warming effect by decreasing IR transparency, -a greenhouse effect. Even uncondensed water in the stratosphere has a greenhouse effect, and increasing it would drive global temperatures in the wrong direction.

  19. 169
    Carrie says:

    162 MA Rodger, I really do not care what your self-justification is for being so arrogant and judgmental of others every time you feel a need to speak. That’s 100% your problem, no one else’s, moving on now.

    Personally I much prefer hearing from real experts such as Dr. James Hansen and his most pleasant way of speaking all the time: this info is from https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf
    6.9 Practical implications

    I mention this in response to both your highly opinionated assertions about CO2 (where ESRL has the GLOBAL numbers at +408.5 ppmv and +3.0 yoy August and increasing – making your flippant MLO comment 100% MOOT!) and your global surface air Temperature numbers in particular:

    QUOTING:
    Second, our study suggests that global surface air temperature, although an important diagnostic, is a flawed metric of planetary “health”, because faster ice melt has a cooling effect for a substantial period. Earth’s energy imbalance is in some sense a more fundamental climate diagnostic. Stabilizing climate, to first order, requires restoring planetary energy balance.

    The UNFCCC never mentions temperature – instead it mentions stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at a level to avoid danger. It has been shown that the dominant climate forcing, CO2, must be reduced to no more than 350 ppm to restore planetary energy balance (Hansen et al., 2008) and keep climate near the Holocene level, if other forcings remain unchanged.

    Rapid phasedown of fossil fuel emissions is the crucial need, because of the millennial timescale of this carbon in the climate system. Improved understanding of the carbon cycle is needed to determine the most effective complementary actions. It may be feasible to restore planetary energy balance via improved agricultural and forestry practices and other actions to draw down atmospheric CO2 amount, if fossil fuel emissions are rapidly phased out.

    [note to Coleman #163 – there’s much details in that Hansen paper fwiw]

    Third, not only do we see evidence of changes beginning to happen in the climate system, as discussed above, but we have also associated these changes with amplifying feedback processes.

    We understand that in a system that is out of equilibrium, a system in which the equilibrium is difficult to restore rapidly, a system in which major components such as the ocean and ice sheets have great inertia but are beginning to change, the existence of such amplifying feedbacks presents a situation of great concern. There is a possibility, a real danger, that we will hand young people and future generations a climate system that is practically out of their control.

    We conclude that the message our climate science delivers to society, policymakers, and the public alike is this: we have a global emergency.

    Fossil fuel CO2 emissions should be reduced as rapidly as practical. [end quote]

    Written in 2015 – Published in 2016 – It’s now almost 2019 – Nothing has changed for the better – NOTHING.

  20. 170
    Carrie says:

    163 Lawrence Coleman, yes what you say is correct imho.

    Though keep in mind the current CO2 levels and surface temps are now higher than when that last 2015/2016 el nino occurred. iow the carbon sinks are “on average” under as much forcing stress today absent an active el nino event.

    I do not know what NASA are doing with the OCO sat., I checked and checked and have given up on seeing updates of their data analysis.

    Clearly ongoing natural GHG emissions combined from forests, land clearing, agricultural soil practices impacts etc are some of what Hansen refers to as Amplifying Feedbacks. Ice melt is another, and unrecorded ocean subsurface warming another .. and on and on it goes “unabated” until we’re all cooked as frogs in a pot.

    Long may the mantra be written – “gotta rapidly reduce FF GHG emissions” while the world collectively does the complete opposite, and nothing about carbon sinks, agriculture, cement production, or ocean acidification, coral reefs and fish stocks destruction globally!

    We’re F****d iow!

    In this pseudo-report from American’t https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/ I stopped counting the number of times I saw this basic DO NOTHING comment REPEATED
    “Global action to significantly cut greenhouse gas emissions can substantially reduce climate-related risks…”
    … when I got to 100 times!

  21. 171
    Hank Roberts says:

    What really happens after an apocalypse? Society works better than it ever had, for a brief time.

    The writer Rebecca Solnit wrote an entire book about this phenomenon, and she called it A Paradise Built in Hell. She points out that it is really the fear on the part of powerful people that powerless people will react to trauma with irrational violence that is preventing us from seeing how apocalypse really shapes our societies. Solnit calls this ‘elite panic’, and contrasts it with the idea of ‘civic temper’—the utopian potential of meaningful community.

    Apocalyptic science fiction tells us so much about how the future is going to hurt—or could. But it can also explore how the future will be full of spontaneous helping; societies that bloom for a night, a few weeks, a month, to repair what has been broken. The human capacity to give aid and succor seems to be universal, and triggered quite specifically by the disruption and horror of disaster. Science fiction might let us see that utopian potential more clearly, and imagine how we might help each other in ways we never knew we were capable of.

    https://www.tor.com/2018/11/14/what-really-happens-after-the-apocalypse/

  22. 172
    David B. Benson says:

    MA Roger @162 — Actually, Hawaii is considerably further equatorward than Florida. Hawaii is tropical while Florida is not.

    — end of picked nit

  23. 173
    Carrie says:

    Perspective is everything. Because reality is determined from where you are looking from and not what you’re looking at (especially when both eyes are closed to all bad news on the horizon.)

    Let’s Focus on quality instead of quantity? You don’t have to live a long life to live a full one. It is already happening. The enhanced wildfires globally, the enhanced tropical storms, enhanced heat waves, crop failures, long term droughts, increasing water scarcity, falling bore water levels, climate / war refugees, disrupted bird/insect migrations, 75% loss of insect mass (?), the bees, sea ice losses at the poles, coral reef bleaching, ocean acidity on all ocean food cycles, lower winter snow runoff, etc etc etc.

    People are already dying now by the thousands, just not in the western world just yet and little reported. But global crop failures, inducing pandemics due to weakened immune systems, and wars, is just around the corner from a home near you. And diseases travel by airliner fast.

    And this will not be linear. Thus, linear progressions will be worthless. Being the majority of climate reports known to man, worthless.

    This is an Extinction Level Event, and it is happening now already. No one is coming out the other end. The planet will become uninhabitable for warm-blooded creatures, and what will come after that will rival the Permian mass extinction.

    Live the best you know how, for however long you have. If you won’t reach retirement age within the next ten years, don’t count on it at all. You might want to put that money to better use that giving it to some financial shark or a govt mandated retirement fund you’ll never get to see anyway. Even 10 years seems optimistic.

    The acceleration over the last 5 years doesn’t bode well. I expect major global crop failures within 2 years that finally get noticed. Further degradation of old growth forests chasing the $ in Palm oil, soya beans and beef cattle – while others simply wither under the heat, lack of rainfall, and parasite infestations. Massive emissions of methane in the Arctic become a significant source of short-term greenhouse gases spikes, a study reveals:

    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-08/tpu-rsd081517.php

    https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15872

    I must not forget though – the future is still in our hands, all we need to do is rapidly cut FF GHGs between now and 2030 by 20% and then get them down to a NET ZERO GHG emissions before 2050 and save the Carbon Sinks while expanding them, and we’re all sweet as apple pie.

    Too easy! Because all the neoliberal corporate whores and their bought and paid for pathological politicians are going to do exactly what my “hands” and your “hands” tell them to do – obviously! :-)

  24. 174
    Carrie says:

    Cuttin’ through the noise. There is someone here who could do a Crowley on Markey!

    Edward John Markey (born July 11, 1946) is an American politician serving as the junior United States Senator from Massachusetts since 2013, re-elected to a full term in 2014. UP for re-election again in 2020.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Markey

    Michael Evan Mann (born December 28, 1965) is an American climatologist and geophysicist, currently director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University, who has contributed to the scientific understanding of historic climate change based on the temperature record of the past thousand years. He has pioneered techniques to find patterns in past climate change, and to isolate climate signals from noisy data.

    Mann was born in 1965, and brought up in Amherst, Massachusetts, where his father was a professor of mathematics at the University of Massachusetts. At school he was interested in math, science, and computing.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_E._Mann

    55 years old is a great time to start an outstanding political career as a US Senator. It’s not that hard, really it isn’t. Think Tulsi Gabbard and AOC … Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (born October 13, 1989) is an American politician and educator. She is the U.S. Representative-elect for New York’s 14th congressional district, elected on November 6, 2018.

    On June 26, 2018, Ocasio-Cortez won the Democratic primary in New York’s 14th congressional district covering parts of the Bronx and Queens in New York City, defeating the incumbent Congressman, Democratic Caucus Chair Joe Crowley, in what was described as the biggest upset victory in the 2018 midterm election primaries. Ocasio-Cortez is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandria_Ocasio-Cortez

    Now the details don;t matter much so long as Michael Mann ‘labelled’ himself a Democrat for PR purposes, and then sought the backing & support of the Justice Democrats and their associated groupings and Members – now numbering over 100 seats in the House of Reps. such as Tulsi Gabbard and of course Bernie Sanders’ counsel and public support.

    Because if a Michael Mann actually put his money, his feet and his actions where his mouth is he would shit it in beating Markey in the 2020 MA Senate Primary race … and then the election would be in the bag.

    Imagine what Michael Mann could do for Climate Action as a US Senator for 6 years —- whether he remained a Democrat would be moot —- it’s his Vote and his public image and power that would matter most. In 2026 he’d easily be re-elected as an Independent if he wanted to. Shit easy!

    So Michael Mann, why aren’t you running for election right now?

    You’d do more good there and than here or at Penn State. You’ll get to ask the questions on Senate Committees versus deal with the usual idiots who ask them. Surely “tenure” is not that important to you Mike.

    And why isn’t James Hansen also running for the US Senate for New York State in 2020 too?

  25. 175
    Victor says:

    From The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/17/french-protester-killed-accident-anti-fuel-tax-blockade

    “The scale of the spontaneous popular revolt revealed an unexpected level of public discontent, with President Macron accused of being out of touch with the problems of ordinary people. Although sparked by higher fuel prices, the protests revealed a wider crisis of confidence in the centrist government. Ministers and officials insist the tax rises are a necessary measure to wean France from its dependence on fossil fuels. But at the Place de la République in central Paris, angry gilets jaunes dismissed the official line.

    “We need reform, but not to the detriment of people’s pockets. We all bought diesel vehicles because we were told they were good, now they are punishing us because they say diesel is bad,” said Roger Ordonez, owner of a building company. “They are killing us off. We open our mouths they tax us, we shut them, they tax us. What is happening is totally unfair and we are totally fed up with this government.”

    Cyrille Charton, an agrifood sales rep, added: “People from every social background are here because we are all affected. They expect us to pay 30% more for fuel, but if I tell my clients they will have to pay 30% more for products they’d think I was joking. We’ve had enough.””

    So much for “putting a price on carbon.”

  26. 176
    Carrie says:

    MLO is pushing to break 409 ppmv on daily avg readings at any time now. Global CO2 already 408.50 and rising steadily.

    In other news: El Niño ALERT and positive Indian Ocean Dipole continue

    The tropical Pacific continues to meet some, but not all, El Niño criteria, while a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) persists in the Indian Ocean. The Bureau’s ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT, meaning there is at least a 70% chance of El Niño fully forming in 2018.

    Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean now exceed El Niño thresholds. However, atmospheric indicators—such as trade winds, cloudiness, pressure patterns and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)—have yet to show consistent or sustained signs of El Niño.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml#tabs=SOI

    And Bitcoin has ‘melted’ into nothingness almost. Make yourself feel better and buy yourself a new Tesla … do it for the ‘planet’ but do it sooner than later while they are still for sale.

  27. 177
    Killian says:

    Re #164 Nemesis said @Killian, #159

    You know, I have been taught about some crude form of (social) Darwinism aka “only the strong survive” in school, at work ect. Yeah, it’s easy to teach others about tough shit while sitting in an armchair, feeling comfy, well-fed and happy- until tough shit knocks on the door. Beware all you well-fed big talkers in the rich countries:

    The djungle is real, gnahaha 8D

    I’m assuming this means you agree with me. In case it does not mean that, yes, Darwin meant the best-adapted. Yes, people who are utterly unadapted are in for a big surprise. And, again, in case you mistake me for one of those well-fed, armchair fools, I sold everything, put it all on the line in the hopes I could help an entire city become a model for the future. Lost everything, including my son for 4.5 years, so I do not talk isht, ever. This is all very, very real for me, very personal.

    I have put my money where my mouth is, and continue to do so.

    Few, if any, posting here can say the same, yet…

  28. 178
    zebra says:

    Please Please Please, Moderators, open up Forced Responses so the usual suspects– and their minions, who can’t resist responding to them– can ramble on endlessly, repetitively, and boringly, without filling up UV.

    I can tolerate working around them to discuss actual mitigation tech and options there, if the occasion arises, but it would be nice to have a space free of childish political rants and personality outbursts to explore actual climate science topics.

  29. 179
  30. 180
  31. 181
    nigelj says:

    Hank Roberts @171, thanks for the tip on Rebecca Solnit. Something of related interest is the movie “Snowpiercer’, which is a fictional futurist action movie based around climate change, and rather dark and very left field, but interesting social commentary. Had good reviews.

  32. 182
    nigelj says:

    Carrie says “Let’s Focus on quality instead of quantity? You don’t have to live a long life to live a full one”

    Yes absolutely.

    “This is an Extinction Level Event, (climate change) and it is happening now already. No one is coming out the other end. The planet will become uninhabitable for warm-blooded creatures, and what will come after that will rival the Permian mass extinction.”

    Yes it will be an extinction level event, but surely this is only for people in some parts of the world in tropical and sub tropical climates. IPCC projects a very worst case of 12 degrees c by 2300 which would be a killer for such areas, but not an extinction level event for countries with cold climates, although still very damaging due to sea level rise etc.

    I think some people are gambling they will do ok, or can immigrate and buy their way out of problems and many will. This is what confounds the climate issue. If it was an asteroid hurtling towards earth. it would be a universal extinction level event and almost anyone with a functional brain would demand action, but climate change is not so simple, and is not going to unfold so quickly and so our responses are more fragmented.

    I think those people who do worry about climate change tend to be concerned for the world as a whole, there is a certain level of altruism together with an understanding of how all things relate and that good economics means protecting everyone’s interests ultimately . But not everyone thinks this way. This is the core problem, and its hard to change it. All we can do is try our hardest.

    We should certainly reduce emissions. Its not to late to make a positive difference, and the irony is we will run out of oil in about 100 years anyway so will be forced to use alternatives, or reduce use. This doesn’t seem to penetrate the brains of some people.

  33. 183
    Nemesis says:

    @Killian, #177

    ” I’m assuming this means you agree with me.”

    Yes, I agree with you. And you agree with me, I guess. And I don’t mistake you for these well-fed armchair-fools for a second, I never did. In fact, I highly appreciate most of your comments here on RC. About misquoted(!) Darwin:

    “Only the strong survive” is complete bullshit as nobody survives in the long run ;)

    So, after all, we are all on our way to the boneyard one way or another with or without fossil fuel induced climate heating. The only question to me is, what do we make of it? Hoarding funny material shit on the way to the boneyard? Makes no sense to me, never did :’D And I’m sure you agree ;)

  34. 184
    Nemesis says:

    @nigelj, #167

    ” Wealthy countries survive natural disasters much better because they have resources to spare, good education, and systems to cope with disasters and changing circumstances.”

    Fine :) So let’s lay back and see who will be proven wrong as reality never fails.

    … “laying back, grabbing popcorn”…

  35. 185
    Carrie says:

    182 nigelj says: Yes it will be an extinction level event, but surely this is only for people in some parts of the world in tropical and sub tropical climates. IPCC projects a very worst case of 12 degrees c by 2300 which would be a killer for such areas, but not an extinction level event for countries with cold climates, although still very damaging due to sea level rise etc.

    I think some people are gambling they will do ok, or can immigrate and buy their way out of problems and many will. This is what confounds the climate issue. If it was an asteroid hurtling towards earth. it would be a universal extinction level event and almost anyone with a functional brain would demand action, but climate change is not so simple, and is not going to unfold so quickly and so our responses are more fragmented.

    I think those people who do worry about climate change tend to be concerned for the world as a whole, there is a certain level of altruism together with an understanding of how all things relate and that good economics means protecting everyone’s interests ultimately . But not everyone thinks this way. This is the core problem, and its hard to change it. All we can do is try our hardest.

    We should certainly reduce emissions. Its not to late to make a positive difference, and the irony is we will run out of oil in about 100 years anyway so will be forced to use alternatives, or reduce use. This doesn’t seem to penetrate the brains of some people.

    Nigelj, if I am pressed for a straight answer I shall say that, as far as we can see, looking at it by and large, taking one thing with another, in terms of the average of emissions, then in the last analysis it is probably true to say that, at the end of the day, you would find, in general terms that, not to put too fine a point on it, there really was not very much in it one way or the other, as far as one can see, at this stage.

    Once all is said and done with these matters under consideration, in the fullness of time, at the appropriate juncture, in due course, and at the end of the day as we arrive at our destination to reap the rewards of our deep deliberations and behold the fruits of our labour, while I may not get there with you, we as a people shall reach the promised land, of milk and honey, finally to realise the future was indeed still sitting in our hands.

  36. 186
    Carrie says:

    I asked Dr. Mike Mann if he ever thought of going into politics. He shook his head. ‘Why not?’

    ‘Well, Professor, I once looked up politics in the Thesaurus.’

    ‘What does it say?’

    ‘”Manipulation, intrigue, wire-pulling, evasion, rabble-rousing, graft…” I don’t think I have the necessary qualities.’

    I told him not to underestimate himself.

    Quite honestly, don’t you want a job where you don’t spend endless hours circulating information that isn’t relevant about subjects that don’t matter to people who aren’t interested?

    You need a job where there is real achievement rather than mere activity. Surely you’re tired of pushing paper Mike?

    (Duly plagiarised from The Complete Yes Minister, p. 487)

  37. 187
  38. 188
    MA Rodger says:

    HadCRUT has posted for October with an anomaly of +0.69ºC, the highest anomaly for the year-so-far. Previously the HadCRUT monthly anomalies for 2018 have sat in the range +0.53ºC to +0.63ºC.
    It is 2nd warmest October on the HadCRUT record (as it was in GISS, NOAA & BEST), in HadCRUT below top place Oct 2015 (0.84ºC) and above 2014 (+0.63ºC), 2005 (+0.61ºC) and 2003 (+0.61ºC), 2016 (+0.60C) and 2017 (+0.57ºC).
    October 2018 is 32nd warmest monthly anomaly on the full all-month HadCRUT record (11th in GISS, 24th in BEST, 25th in NOAA).

    In the HadCRUT year-to-date table below, 2018 sits in 4th place (as per GISS, NOAA & BEST) which to change rank by year’s-end will require the remaining two months of the year to average an anomaly above +1.10ºC or below +0.50ºC.

    …….. Jan-Oct Ave … Annual Ave ..Annual ranking
    2016 .. +0.84ºC … … … +0.80ºC … … … 1st
    2015 .. +0.73ºC … … … +0.76ºC … … … 2nd
    2017 .. +0.70ºC … … … +0.68ºC … … … 3rd
    2018 .. +0.60ºC
    2014 .. +0.58ºC … … … +0.58ºC … … … 4th
    2010 .. +0.58ºC … … … +0.56ºC … … … 5th
    1998 .. +0.57ºC … … … +0.54ºC … … … 7th
    2005 .. +0.55ºC … … … +0.55ºC … … … 6th
    2002 .. +0.52ºC … … … +0.50ºC … … … 12th
    2007 .. +0.52ºC … … … +0.49ºC … … … 13th
    2003 .. +0.50ºC … … … +0.51ºC … … … 9th

  39. 189
    Hank Roberts says:

    a snippet from that article I linked above:

    https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/11/23/all-i-want-for-christmas-is-a-90-efficient-solar-panel/

    … with this the company suggests they’ll be able to deliver electricity as low as 0.3¢/kWh.

    Look again at that number. Recently, Lazard released a report extolling how new wind and solar power were cheaper to build than to run some already built coal and gas. Their beautiful charts showed wind peaking just below 2¢/kWh and utility scale solar around 4¢/W – unsubsidized. When California finalized its rooftop mandate – pv magazine suggested residential electricity at an effective price of 2.5¢/kWh. Amazing numbers!

    NovaSolix wants to undercut the most competitive electricity on earth by a factor of ten….

    Links to sources are in the original article text.

  40. 190
    Nemesis says:

    @Carrie, #285

    ” I think some people are gambling they will do ok, or can immigrate and buy their way out of problems and many will.”

    Sure:

    ” How tech’s richest plan to save themselves after the apocalypse

    They knew armed guards would be required to protect their compounds from the angry mobs. But how would they pay the guards once money was worthless? What would stop the guards from choosing their own leader? The billionaires considered using special combination locks on the food supply that only they knew. Or making guards wear disciplinary collars of some kind in return for their survival. Or maybe building robots to serve as guards and workers – if that technology could be developed in time…

    Taking their cue from Elon Musk colonizing Mars, Peter Thiel reversing the ageing process, or Sam Altman and Ray Kurzweil uploading their minds into supercomputers, they were preparing for a digital future that had a whole lot less to do with making the world a better place than it did with transcending the human condition altogether and insulating themselves from a very real and present danger of climate change, rising sea levels, mass migrations, global pandemics, nativist panic, and resource depletion. For them, the future of technology is really about just one thing: escape…

    Thus, we get tech billionaires launching electric cars into space – as if this symbolizes something more than one billionaire’s capacity for corporate promotion. And if a few people do reach escape velocity and somehow survive in a bubble on Mars – despite our inability to maintain such a bubble even here on Earth in either of two multibillion-dollar biosphere trials – the result will be less a continuation of the human diaspora than a lifeboat for the elite.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jul/23/tech-industry-wealth-futurism-transhumanism-singularity

    There is no escape from the human condition, flesh and bones are real. If perishableness won’t get them on Earth, it will get them on Mars or wherever they may go.

  41. 191
    Nemesis says:

    Addendum to my last comment at #190:

    “… transcending the human condition altogether…”

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jul/23/tech-industry-wealth-futurism-transhumanism-singularity

    That’s their goal, the goal of the elite, that has always been their ultimate goal since Gilgamesh, king of Uruk, transcending the human condition by brute force, exploitation, “infinite growth”, science and technology. Perishableness, finiteness, Death is a slap in the face of the powers that be. Now there’s a death threat to Homo Sapiens in total and they dream of “technological singularity”, “bubbles on Mars”, “luxury bunkers underground (uh, not so far from the grave, imo)”, “immortality by uploading their minds into supercomputers” ect ect. They could as well eat some altar bread (or some weed like Gilgamesh tried to get), hoping to find immortality through some sacred matter.

    This is the kind of human condition that leads to perishableness and ever more perishableness, more and ever more death. They are afraid of death, they flee death, they hate death, the ultimate antithesis to their dreams of godlike power and control. They don’t accept one thing:

    LIFE is based on perishableness, finiteness, Death.

    There is no life without death, take away death and you take away life, take away one side of the coin and you take away the other side of the coin. No matter wich way you turn, the ass stays always behind, flesh and bones are real.

    Now, what is the only way to transcend finiteness, death? You will find out 8)

  42. 192
    Killian says:

    #180 Hank Roberts said https://www.ecologise.in/2017/11/04/noam-chomsky-indigenous-people-are-the-only-hope-for-human-survival/

    Yup, this one, too. That is, ahead of the curve, but not first. At least, I don’t think so. I can’t think of anyone besides myself that takes the indigenous example quite as literally as I do, though… I’d be surprised if there were none – like the indigenous. But the context here is good old normal OECD types.

    Yes, they are the model, but the credit goes to Mollison and Holmgren in my case, after the indigenous themselves.

    Regenerative Governance is uniquely mine, but all else came, the components, from others. And it is the *only* pathway to success.

  43. 193
    zebra says:

    Nemesis,

    So, when the dominant chimp goes around beating on the weaker ones, or starts a genocide against an intruding troop, or leads a meat-hunting expedition where he exchanges monkey-meat for sex, it’s all because he is aware of and fears death?

    No, sorry, the drive for status and power is independent of human consciousness about mortality; most of it happens before the reality of death becomes internalized to the point of being “real”.

    There is no cosmic significance to the Koch brothers’ efforts; it has to do with the conditions of their psychological development.

    And for some, clearly, Nemesis, one’s psychology requires that there is some cosmic significance to talk about, so they don’t have to deal with the fact that people are monkeys. You and I are monkeys, and however far we have progressed in our personal development to transcend that monkey-ness, we still have to deal with all those who haven’t.

  44. 194
    CCHolley says:

    RE. Victor @175

    “But there are almost no good-faith climate-change deniers. And denying science for profit, political advantage or ego satisfaction is not O.K.; when failure to act on the science may have terrible consequences, denial is, as I said, depraved.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/26/opinion/climate-change-denial-republican.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

  45. 195
    Nemesis says:

    @Zebra, #193

    ” So, when the dominant chimp goes around beating on the weaker ones, or starts a genocide against an intruding troop, or leads a meat-hunting expedition where he exchanges monkey-meat for sex, it’s all because he is aware of and fears death?”

    Erm, when did I say things like that? Not all monkeys are equal, are they? I said, especially the powers that be are afraid of death. Just study history and you know what I’m talking about. Study the history of kings and pharaos ect. Look for instance at the vast, insane efforts of egyptian pharaos to make themselves immortal, materialized in their pyramid buildings. Look at the religous rites of kings et al. Everyone who is looking for immortality is afraid of death obviously :) Just look at the Guardian article I refered to:

    These socalled “elites” are struggeling with death, they reach out for immortality, they are strugelling with what’s in it for everyone, rich or poor:

    Finiteness, flesh and bones.

    You know, it’s funny, you might be a king or a boss, owning vast material shit and earthly powers, but in the end you share the same funny, mundane fate just like beggars, cleaning ladies or slaves. In the end:

    All flesh and bones, conquered by the one and only real power.

    I do understand that the powers that be don’t like that too much ;) The higher you climb, the deeper you fall.

    ” You and I are monkeys, and however far we have progressed in our personal development to transcend that monkey-ness, we still have to deal with all those who haven’t.”

    That’s for sure :’D But not for too long I bet, in the end (after just a few decades maximum) we’ll meet them all at the boneyard, finally equal ;)

  46. 196
    Nemesis says:

    Addendum to my last post, #195:

    https://tinyurl.com/ydhfqdcr

    The monkey business of the socalled “elite” :)

  47. 197
  48. 198
    Nemesis says:

    @Zebra

    When funny money, wealth and power become a fetish, then you become a slave of your fetish, see eg:

    ” The Downside of Wealth: Toward a Psychopathology of Money Accumulation

    … Terror management theory holds that in order to deal with the anxiety of knowing that they will one day die, people hold on to cultural values that allow them to feel that their lives are meaningful (Kasser & Sheldon, 2000). Feelings of insecurity lead to materialist behaviors, and the theory suggests that those that engage in such behaviors do so out of fear of death. Hirschman (1990) explored the attainment of secular immortality through affluence, and argued that the ideology of wealth seeks secular immortality through the cultural celebration of achievement, wealth, and the accumulation of possessions…”

    https://media.proquest.com/media/pq/classic/doc/4134307041/fmt/ai/rep/NPDF?_s=6Ym7YWTNxQbHvvS1HXtwkrNdWNc%3D

    These are well studied facts of psychology resp psychopathology. Just study the epic of Gilgamesh, king of Uruk, the faustian archetype of all wealth and power seekers. Study Faust, study the history of the elite.

  49. 199
    Nemesis says:

    Death makes all people small, not matter if king or beggar. Death makes all monkeys to ashes.

    So why strive for wealth and “power”…

    … on the way to the inevitable boneyard?

    Monkey business. The real king owns nothing, the real monkey king is empty when he emerges and he is empty when he leaves, a complete no- body. Look at the sun, the galaxy, the universe:

    What could they ever win? No- thing. What could they ever lose? No- thing.

    ” He who knows he has enough is rich.
    Perseverance is a sign of willpower.
    He who stays where he is endures.
    To die but not to perish is to be eternally present.”

    Tao Te King

  50. 200
    Carrie says:

    Climate Change – What’s The Whole Truth? | Russell Brand & Charles Eisenstein

    “This mindset of fundamentalism of money,
    of war, has a jump. It has us jump to
    the cause. What’s the cause? Oh, insect
    die-off it must be climate change.
    Forest fires it must be climate change.
    To find an enemy is one of the deep
    programs of our culture – to solve a problem”
    […]

    “I feel a little suspicious of the dominant
    climate change narrative because the powerful
    are so willing to accept it. I think it’s
    a lot less disruptive than the alternative
    narrative that I like to work with.
    Which is the living Earth narrative. which
    says that Earth is alive that it’s health
    depends on the health of its organs and
    tissues and what are those? Those are the
    forests, the wetlands, the seagrass meadows,
    the mangroves the elephants the whales the
    fish the corals. Everything that is
    destroyed by development is necessary
    .

    If you are in the Carbon mind frame
    then even if you value a forest for its
    carbon storage and sequestration
    once you’ve reduced it to that “number”
    you could cut it down, if there’s say
    gold to mine underneath it or oil, and
    plant another forest somewhere else to make
    up for it because it’s just the numbers.
    Or you could cut it down but install
    lots of solar panels to offset
    that that carbon.

    We’re not treating Earth as alive, precious,
    and sacred by operating in that quantitative
    mindset
    and I don’t think that’s a big
    enough revolution. I don’t think we are
    being initiated into a new kind of
    relationship to earth but initiated
    into “let’s be a little bit more clever
    I’m working the numbers.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3Kx7MkKgVk