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Unforced variations: Dec 2018

Filed under: — group @ 2 December 2018

This month’s open thread for climate science topics. Please use the Forced Responses thread for solutions and politics.

65 Responses to “Unforced variations: Dec 2018”

  1. 1
    Nemesis says:

    Addendum to my last comment (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/11/unforced-variations-nov-2018/comment-page-5/#comment-714199):

    Dear monkeys, have you ever heard about the term “Sunyata”? The term “Sunyata” translates to “Form is emptiness, emptiness is form”. Now, if the final condition “in” death (or “after” death?^^) is no- thing- ness resp emptiness and emptiness, in turn, is form (matter is form, brain is form, monkey is form), resp Death is Life and, in turn, Life is Death, exactly like two sides of the very same coin, then what?

    Monkey head exploaded.

    How long is the coast of south France? Depending on your scale, the length of the coast of south France literally ranges from infinitesimal to infinite long. You live in a monkey world made of inches and feet, but outside the monkey imagination, in the ultimate real world, there is no inch, no meter, no numbers, no ultimate difference between life and death. Don’t confuse the map with the terrain or you might end up eating the menu card instead of the meal.

  2. 2
    patrick says:

    “The 2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane season…is in the books as the most active on record for accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) …” [with chart extending back to 1971]

    https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Hyperactive-2018-Eastern-Pacific-Hurricane-Season-Ends?cm_ven=cat6-widget

    “The 2018 season was hyperactive by virtually any measure… The 2018 Eastern Pacific season also had a remarkable 35 major (Category 3+) hurricane days, shattering the old seasonal record of 24 major hurricane days set in 2015. …This year continued the pattern of unprecedented tropical cyclone activity that the Hawaiian Islands has experienced since 2014.” –Jeff Masters and Bob Henson, Weather Underground.

  3. 3
    Carrie says:

    I have a question. In what ways does this ideal manifest itself in the words and actions of Climate Scientists in 2018? (assuming one agrees with the ideal)

    “Intellectuals are in a position to expose the lies of governments, to analyze actions according to their causes and motives and often hidden intentions. In the Western world, at least, they have the power that comes from political liberty, from access to information and freedom of expression. For a privileged minority, Western democracy provides the leisure, the facilities, and the training to seek the truth lying hidden behind the veil of distortion and misrepresentation, ideology and class interest, through which the events of current history are presented to us.”

    “IT IS THE RESPONSIBILITY of intellectuals to speak the truth and to expose lies. This, at least, may seem enough of a truism to pass over without comment. Not so, however. For the modern intellectual, it is not at all obvious. […] The facts are known to all who care to know. The press, foreign and domestic, has presented documentation to refute each falsehood as it appears. But the power of the government’s propaganda apparatus is such that the citizen who does not undertake a research project on the subject can hardly hope to confront government pronouncements with fact.”

    The Responsibility of Intellectuals
    Noam Chomsky
    The New York Review of Books, February 23, 1967
    https://chomsky.info/19670223/

  4. 4
    MA Rodger says:

    UAH have posted its November TLT anomaly at +0.28ºC, the second highest anomaly of 2018-so-far and up on October’s +0.22ºC. The UAH monthly anomalies this year sit within the range +0.32C to +0.14ºC.
    It is =4th warmest November in UAH TLT behind previous warm Novembers 2016 (+0.63ºC), 2017 (+0.63ºC) & 2015 (+0.63ºC) whilst tying with October 2009.
    November 2018 is =57th warmest monthly anomaly on the full all-month UAH TLT record.
    In the UAH TLT year-to-date table below, 2018 now sits 6th which will likely be its final annual ranking requiring December to give an anomaly above +0.75ºC to climb to 5th or below +0.14ºC to drop to 7th.

    …….. Jan-Nov Ave … Annual Ave ..Annual ranking
    2016 .. +0.54ºC … … … +0.52ºC … … … 1st
    1998 .. +0.50ºC … … … +0.48ºC … … … 2nd
    2017 .. +0.38ºC … … … +0.38ºC … … … 3rd
    2010 .. +0.36ºC … … … +0.34ºC … … … 4th
    2015 .. +0.25ºC … … … +0.27ºC … … … 5th
    2018 .. +0.22ºC
    2002 .. +0.22ºC … … … +0.22ºC … … … 6th
    2005 .. +0.21ºC … … … +0.20ºC … … … 7th
    2014 .. +0.18ºC … … … +0.18ºC … … … 9th
    2007 .. +0.18ºC … … … +0.16ºC … … … 10th
    2003 .. +0.17ºC … … … +0.19ºC … … … 8th

  5. 5
    Hank Roberts says:

    What, if anything, does this mean for climate?
    ===========================
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL080389

    ===========================

    Infrared Radiation in the Thermosphere Near the End of Solar Cycle 24
    Martin G. Mlynczak, Linda A. Hunt, B. Thomas Marshall, James M. Russell III
    Pages: 11,581-11,587 | First Published: 22 October 2018

    Global infrared power radiated by NO and CO2 from thermosphere during solar cycle 24 are, to date, only 50% and 73% of solar cycle 23
    SC 24 would have to last 1,690 more days (making it 1 year longer than SC 23) for its infrared power to equal mean of past five cycles
    NO power levels currently are still 34% larger than at solar minimum conditions of 2009, due to higher geomagnetic activity in 2018.
    ====================

    Geophysical Research Letters

    Volume 45, Issue 21
    Pages: 11,509-12,093

    16 November 2018
    =======================
    Maybe I should be asking Eli …

  6. 6
    Hank Roberts says:

    Uh oh?
    ============
    Geophysical Research Letters

    Climate‐Driven Change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans Can Greatly Reduce the Circulation of the North Sea

    First published: 18 October 2018
    https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078878

  7. 7
    Hank Roberts says:

    Ayup, that’s an un oh.

    The Uneven Nature of Daily Precipitation and Its Change
    Angeline G. Pendergrass
    Reto Knutti
    First published: 19 October 2018
    https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080298

  8. 8
    rhymeswithgoalie says:

    I have a random question about increased water content leading to increased rainfall: Does that mean increased *lightning*?

    [Response: Lightning is tied to convective activity rather than water vapour per se, and, yes, people do expect to see increased convection in the tropics and a poleward expansion of storm tracks. There have been a few modeling studies on this (dating back to Price and Rind (1992)) suggesting increased lightning as a result, but some recent results are more ambiguous (i.e. Finney et al (2018)). We don’t yet have a long enough observational record to provide much help though. – gavin]

  9. 9
    nigelj says:

    rhymeswithgoalie @8

    This may be of interest. Came across it some months ago:

    https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2602/lightning-sparking-more-boreal-forest-fires/

    “A new NASA-funded study finds that lightning storms were the main driver of recent massive fire years in Alaska and northern Canada, and that these storms are likely to move farther north with climate warming, potentially altering northern landscapes…..”

  10. 10
    patrick says:

    “The year 2018 set all sorts of records.” (Second item)

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46384067

    Excellent data animation of heat records for this location on this date, in this month, and/or since records began, for May-July ’18. Brilliant. (Use minus-side control to widen view globally.) Thank you Robert Rohde.

  11. 11
    Nemesis says:

    We live in the funniest system I could imagine. The system is able to calculate shit to the 57th decimal place, but isn’t able to stop shit :’D So, back to the real shit https://youtu.be/WeYsTmIzjkw Have a beautiful, relaxed day everyone.

  12. 12
    Carrie says:

    A little something for Nemesis

    This personal inventory has messy consequences. It means facing your fear of death to the point where it no longer controls every decision you make so you will be free to live right now.

    https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2018/07/27/humanity-is-deciding-if-it-will-evolve-or-die/

    follow the trail :-)

  13. 13

    #5, Hank–

    In the absence of comment from someone who actually knows, I’m going with “zero effect on climate.”

    The thermosphere is ~85 k up from the surface, and is so thin (in density terms) that ‘temperature’ there doesn’t jibe very well with our ordinary experience of what that means. (That is, the molecules there are very ‘hot’–ie., strongly agitated–but there are so few of them by tropospheric standards that conduction is pretty negligible, meaning that an ordinary thermometer would not register that heat–or at least, so I gather.)

    It’s also on the other side of the stratosphere, which is in general cooling anyway under GH climate change.

  14. 14

    HR 5, Conditions in the thermosphere are high enough that they have very little bearing on climate per se.

  15. 15

    Gavin et al. especially: does anyone know of a parameterization for global cloud cover? Not cloud cover in each grid cell, as in a GCM, but the whole thing for the whole planet? I’ve been using fixed-coverage schemes out of the Manabe team’s many RCM studies, or Kiehl and Trenberth 1997, but I’m doing an evolution-of-Earth’s-climate study and I need something more general, and more importantly, something that varies with different Earth conditions. Simple example–is there more cloud cover as Earth’s mean global annual surface temperature rises, or less?

    [Response: That’s the $64,000 question. So the answer is we don’t know. More importantly, the question is a little ill-posed because where clouds change (and how) is the key to how important they are for climate. Low vs high, tropics vs the Arctic etc. all make O(1) differences to the net cloud feedback. And don’t get me started on what ‘cloud cover’ actually means (is a cloud you can’t see in the visible still a cloud?). You might try emulating one or another climate model’s output – use ISCCP total cloud cover diagnostics… – gavin]

  16. 16
    Nemesis says:

    @Carrie, #12

    ” A little something for Nemesis

    This personal inventory has messy consequences. It means facing your fear of death to the point where it no longer controls every decision you make so you will be free to live right now.”

    Ah, well, thanks, but have you read my previous comments so far? I faced my fear of death from earliest childhood on, having faced the death of my mother when I was 4 years old, having faced the death of my father when I was 15 years old, having faced the death of two brothers, having faced the death of many friends and relatives, having faced death and I even flirted with death^^ for 5 years during drug addiction and still facing death of people around me. Have you heard about these soldiers who had seen death ten times, hundred times, a thousand times, a million times and finally lost fear of death altogether? I said it before and I say it again:

    DEATH is my most precious teacher for roughly 30 years now. I don’t fear death, in fact, I LOVE death, because death set up an ultimate barrier against human ignorance, greed and megalomania, muhahaha 38) , quote:

    And Yama (Death) said:

    ” Fools dwelling in darkness, but thinking themselves wise and erudite, go round and round, by various tortuous paths, like the blind led by the blind.

    The Hereafter never reveals Itself to a person devoid of discrimination, heedless and perplexed by the delusion of wealth. “This world alone exists”, he thinks, “and there is no other.” Again and again he comes under my sway.” ”

    – Katha Upanishad

    So, after all, I don’t fear death for a second, all I fear are my very own shortcomings. The article you refered to talks about the Buddha. Well, I studied the Pali canon excessively for many years, I have done buddhist retreats in the woods several times and I can tell you:

    Enlightenment is not for the masses, it has always been a task for very few individuals. Therefore, the Budha teached SOLITUDE, renunciation, seperation from the masses, seperation from mundane worldy life, seperation, seperation, seperation and again: Solitude, solitude, solitude and renunciation. Understand? He teached NO sex, NO music, NO worldly pleasures of any sort, instead, he teached to meditate at the fuckin BONEYARD, in fact, the Buddha was an ascete through and through.

    Actually, everything being said in that article you refered to is not new, in fact, the Club of Rome warned us 50(!) years ago about the very same shit, but Empire ignored it for the “benefit” of funny money :’D

    After all, here’s a little something for you:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/93/Picture_puzzle.jpg

    You see, life and death are ONE. You think you know fear of death? Well, think again and you’ll find out, there’s something even more terrifying:

    NO EXIT. Death is just a transition from one misery to the next. So let me quote one of these students who followed Buddha:

    ” I don’t strive for life, I don’t strive for death, I am not attached to any of those, I walk the path of ultimate solitude, I walk in perfect stillness, beyond, beyond, beyond.”

    To quote your very own words:

    Follow the trail 8)

  17. 17
    MA Rodger says:

    RSS have posted its November TLT anomaly at +0.53ºC, not much of a change since October’s +0.54ºC with drops in northern latitudes being balanced by rises in tropical and southern latitudes. (UAH posted a rise of 0.06ºC for Oct-to-Nov.) The RSS monthly anomalies this year sit within the range +0.63C to +0.42ºC.
    It is 4th warmest November in RSS TLT (=4th in UAH) behind previous warm RSS Novembers 2015 (+0.66ºC), 2016 (+0.60ºC) & 2017 (+0.56ºC) and sitting above October 2009 (+0.46ºC).
    November 2018 is the 60th warmest monthly anomaly on the full all-month RSS TLT record (UAH was =57th).
    In the RSS TLT year-to-date table below, 2018 now sits firmly in 6th spot requiring December to find an anomaly above +1.2ºC to achieve 5th or below -0.3ºC to drop down to 7th. (UAH also sits 6th behind the same set of years. The surface temperature records to October were all sitting firmly in 4th position, the ENSO wobbles being smaller at the surface so the El Nino years 1998 & 2010 appear in the rankings below 2018 and also below 2014.)

    …….. Jan-Nov Ave … Annual Ave ..Annual ranking
    2016 .. +0.80ºC … … … +0.77ºC … … … 1st
    2017 .. +0.65ºC … … … +0.65ºC … … … 2nd
    2010 .. +0.62ºC … … … +0.60ºC … … … 3rd
    1998 .. +0.60ºC … … … +0.58ºC … … … 4th
    2015 .. +0.55ºC … … … +0.57ºC … … … 5th
    2018 .. +0.51ºC
    2005 .. +0.46ºC … … … +0.45ºC … … … 7th
    2014 .. +0.45ºC … … … +0.45ºC … … … 6th
    2007 .. +0.41ºC … … … +0.39ºC … … … 10th
    2013 .. +0.40ºC … … … +0.39ºC … … … 9th
    2002 .. +0.39ºC … … … +0.39ºC … … … 11th

  18. 18

    Thanks, Gavin-san.

  19. 19
    Nemesis says:

    @BPL

    ” Thanks, Gavin-san.”

    That’s a nice one. You know, I’ve seen some pictures showing the master of RC and I love his Buddha-like smile and his Buddha-like patience he is showing all the time here on RC. Yes:

    Thanks, Gavin-san.

    gassho

  20. 20

    Gavin inline: “O(1) differences to the net cloud feedback…”

    Uh, can you translate that “O(1) differences” bit?

    [Response: “O(1)” means “order 1” or first order impacts. i.e. these details matter – they aren’t just minor issues. – gavin]

  21. 21

    Gavin inline: ““O(1)” means “order 1” or first order impacts.”

    Thanks, appreciated!

  22. 22
    carrie says:

    16 Nemesis, it was only a ref to you because it’s your area of interest. It was not a judgment about you, nor a directive you “needed” to take on board and apply yourself. You’ve misconstrued a simple sharing of an item on the “topic” expecting probably only you would actually understand it. :-) and a (sigh) Carrie was wrong again! Jeez, get with the program Carrie! (slap)

  23. 23
    Nemesis says:

    @Carrie, #22

    No problem. Quote:

    ” This personal inventory has messy consequences. It means facing your fear of death to the point where it no longer controls every decision you make so you will be free to live right now.”

    Sorry if I got that wrong ;) Human communication isn’t easy ;) Best wishes!

  24. 24
    Nemesis says:

    @Carrie

    You know, I welcome every single alternative perspective compared to the recent ruling system. No doubt, the recent system is at the brink to extinction. I see two divergent perspectives:

    1. The recent materialist/capitalist perspective, claiming we are all nothing but monkey bio- robots, ruled by blind instincts, lacking any free will, our consciousness nothing but some funny epi- phenomenon of the brain and we are determined to cease into nothingness one after another when flesh and bones are done. Fin.

    If this holds true, all discussions are useless, absurd, a waste of time and our fate is sealed. Why should anyone care about anything if every single one of us is doomed to nothingness anyway not matter what we do?

    2. The spiritual perspective: We are not just funny monkey bio- robots, not just flesh and bones but spiritual beings, our core identity is beyond flesh and bones, we have some room for free will and we can influence our fate to some degree resp we are responsible for what we do (Karma) and we will go on when flesh and bones are done.

    The latter perspective is the perspective of Hinduism, Buddhism and some other religions. And it’s also the perspective of indigenous people. I vote for that perspective. You hold on to that perspective too if I got you right. But I doubt that that perspective is able to enlighten the majority of modern, materialist man. Just look at the discussions I had here on RC so far:

    Didn’t I make a fool out of me trying to discuss my perspective?

    Well, I made a fool out of me a million times discussing my spiritual perspective :’D Not that it matters much to me if materialist monkeys call me a fool, in fact, I have my fun anyway. But I take it as prove that the spiritual perspective is no food for materialist modern monkey man.

  25. 25
    Hank Roberts says:

    What’s the mean free path for an IR photon in the thermosphere?
    (Is it part of the lid holding heat in, or is a photon emitted there free to escape to space rather than be recaptured?)

    ==========
    in other news, oopsie:

    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/greenlands-ice-sheet-is-melting-at-its-fastest-rate-in-350-years

    PBS News Hour
    Wednesday, December 5, 2018 5:04 PM EST

    Greenland’s ice sheet is melting at its fastest rate in 350 years
    The Greenland ice sheet is melting faster today than at any point in the last 350 years, according to a new study published in the journal Nature. The research is the first continuous, multi-century analysis of melting and runoff on the ice sheet, one of the largest drivers of sea level rise globally.

    Lead by glaciologist and climate scientist Luke Trusel of Rowan University, a team of U.S. and European researchers analyzed more than three centuries of melt patterns in ice cores from western Greenland. They then linked this historical data to modern observations of melting and runoff across the entire ice sheet, creating a timeline dating back to 1650.

    “From a historical perspective, today’s melt rates are off the charts,” Sarah Das, a glaciologist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and co-author of the new study, said in a statement. “We found a 50 percent increase in total ice sheet meltwater runoff versus the start of the industrial era, and a 30 percent increase since the 20th century alone.”

    According to the analysis, melting on the Greenland ice sheet sped up in the mid-1800s, shortly after the onset of industrial-era warming in the Arctic. Over the last 20 years, melt intensity has increased 250 to 575 percent compared to pre-industrial melt rates. Across the ice sheet, melting was more rapid in 2012 than any other year and the most recent decade included in the ice core-analysis, 2004-2013, experienced “a more sustained and greater magnitude of melt than any other 10-year period” in the 350-year record, the scientists wrote.

  26. 26
    Nemesis says:

    Addendum to my comment before:

    When someone talks about indigenous spirituality being connected to Nature and respecting Nature, he will be attacked by modern monkey “rationalists” mocking that the “noble savage” is a (communist/leftist?^^) myth. And I agree: The “noble savage” is a myth in some sense:

    Indigenous people are not as noble as christians :) I mean, indigenous people kill to survive, they run around nacked, they eat insects, they make funny noises and shit. But they are connected consciously to Nature resp they realize their dependency on Nature 24/7, they realize their oneness with Nature and they respect Nature, while modern, capitalist, rationalist monkey man doesn’t, except in some zoo, in some park or when he strokes his cats and dogs, other than that he is busy exploiting and destroying Nature.

    Some very enlightening thoughts:

    “Indigenous Reflections on Christianity”

    https://youtu.be/OoxNyNWFvZw

  27. 27
    Nemesis says:

    Yes, I’m making a fool out of me and I just can’t stop laughing 38’D

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/03/ttip-what-why-angry-transatlantic-trade-investment-partnership-guide

    https://corporateeurope.org/international-trade/2016/11/great-ceta-swindle

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/03/blackrock-society-secret-money

    “PanamaPapers – The Shady World of Offshore Companies”

    https://youtu.be/CtvaNIQN0DY

    Etc etc ect ect ect ect ect ect ect….

    Yes, I LOVE time, because:

    ” TIME WAITS FOR NO ONE (Jagger/Richards)

    Yes, star crossed in pleasure the stream flows on by
    Yes, as we’re sated in leisure, we watch it fly

    And time waits for no one, and it won’t wait for me
    And time waits for no one, and it won’t wait for me

    Time can tear down a building or destroy a woman’s face
    Hours are like diamonds, don’t let them waste

    Time waits for no one, no favours has he
    Time waits for no one, and he won’t wait for me

    Men, they build towers to their passing yes, to their fame everlasting
    Here he comes chopping and reaping, hear him laugh at their cheating

    And time waits for no man, and it won’t wait for me
    Yes, time waits for no one, and it won’t wait for thee

    Drink in your summer, gather your corn
    The dreams of the night time will vanish by dawn

    And time waits for no one, and it won’t wait for me
    And time waits for no one, and it won’t wait for me

    No no no, not for me…”

    https://youtu.be/vC0Qt1lvLq8

    Man, I love these lines:

    ” Men, they build towers to their passing yes, to their fame everlasting
    Here he comes chopping and reaping, hear him laugh at their cheating…”

    This is for granted 38’D

  28. 28

    Nemesis, nobody cares about your religious prejudices. Take your anti-Christian propaganda somewhere else.

  29. 29
    Nemesis says:

    @BPL, #28

    ” Nemesis, nobody cares about your religious prejudices. Take your anti-Christian propaganda somewhere else.”

    You prove everthing I just said, so thanks a lot for your comment 8)

    I will tell indigenous people that nobody is interested in their prejudices and anti-christian propaganda. Meanwhile you might want to learn some christian history:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide_of_indigenous_peoples

    Yes, the genocide of indigenous people in the name of gawd all around the globe, another heritage, another curse against Empire among many. Signs will soon be fulfilled. I praise the True Laws of Nature and I praise the Law of Karma, sowing and reaping.

    ” Destiny

    This timeless land will hold forever in its grasp
    An endless procession of Man to his very last gasp

    They call it progress when it all is destroyed
    No thought of redemption is ever employed

    A creation of wealth is all that matters
    Mother earth is wounded and left in tatters

    Signs are delivered but are not understood
    For greed is so blinding no-one cares for our good

    We march on forever and believe we are strong
    But the spirits will teach us for we are so very wrong

    Can the winds of change arrive in time
    Or is Man’s obliteration nature’s last chime?”

    – Richard G. Kennedy, Aboriginal

  30. 30
    Nemesis says:

    @Victor, #29

    ” More interesting info from THAT website:

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/06/the-clever-ruse-of-rising-sea-levels/

    :’D Dude, every time I click on the link you refered to, my computer starts rattling, a red colored popup comes up saying ” !Warning, Warning, BS Alarm! “ and shuts off immediately^^- what’s up with that?

  31. 31
  32. 32
    Victor says:

    #30 Nemesis: “Dude, every time I click on the link you refered to, my computer starts rattling, a red colored popup comes up saying ” !Warning, Warning, BS Alarm! “ and shuts off immediately^^- what’s up with that?”

    V: Looks like you’ve programmed your computer to stick its head in the sand whenever it comes across something you can’t handle. Remedy: don’t be afraid, just read the damn thing — and if you have any questions, or just want to cry on my shoulder: I’m here for you. :-)

  33. 33
    Yves Fouquart says:

    To #15 Barton Paul Levenson
    see WANG W.C., ROSSOW W.B. and YAO M.S., WOLFSON M., 1981 :
    Cl imate sensitivi ty of a one dimensional radiative convective model with
    cl oud feedback . .
    J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 1167-1178
    ..with all Gavin ‘caveats

  34. 34

    As I said, Nemesis, nobody cares about your anti-Christian hatred. Take it somewhere else.

  35. 35
    Nemesis says:

    I found out, english is beautiful language, it translates the german word “schweigen” as “to be silent” resp “to hold one’s peace”.

    I love that. Look at the beautiful stars, look at the cold, cold Universe, sie schweigen, they remain silent and therefore hold their peace.

    Peace.

  36. 36
    sidd says:

    I posted this in the wrong thread, i repeat, more appropriately, here:

    Is there any progress in fixing the double ITCZ thing ? why is it so hard to fix ?

    sidd

  37. 37
    sidd says:

    I posted this in the wrong thread, better here:

    Is there progress in fixing the double ITCZ bias in models ? And is there a reason for the bias ?

    Over the years of watching it, I am tend to the opinion that coupling between hemispheres is too weak in the pacific, but thats just me.

    sidd

  38. 38
    nigelj says:

    Victor @32, I had a look at your WUPT sea level rise article.

    Firstly it only looks at patterns in America which is unrepresentative of the entire planet. There’s a lot of variation country to country some with an acceleration some without because of all sorts of reasons. There’s variation within countries as well, for example a huge acceleration in Florida – but obviousy you dont extend that to the entire country. Other parts show negative sea level rise.

    You look at global scale studies. This reduces all the regional noise and variation. Global studies have detected a small overall acceleration in sea level rise for the planet as a whole.

    https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2680/new-study-finds-sea-level-rise-accelerating/

    Secondly it’s a straw man because, the IPCC modelling finds sea level rise wont accelerate really strongly for about another 20 years. This should be obvious to you more warming leads to accelerated rates of melt and thermal expansion.

    WUWT are dummies.

  39. 39

    Merci, M. Fouquart!

  40. 40
    Nemesis says:

    @nigelj, #31

    Thanks nigelj, that’s a well choosen song with a cool rhythm. I appreciate your style.


    On The Seashore

    On the seashore of endless worlds children meet.

    The infinite sky is motionless overhead and the restless water is boisterous. On the seashore of endless worlds the children meet with shouts and dances.
    They build their houses with sand, and they play with empty shells. With withered leaves they weave their boats and smilingly float them on the vast deep. Children have their play on the seashore of worlds.

    They know not how to swim, they know not how to cast nets. Pearl-fishers dive for pearls, merchants sail in their ships, while children gather pebbles and scatter them again. They seek not for hidden treasures, they know not how to cast nets.
    The sea surges up with laughter, and pale gleams the smile of the sea-beach. Death-dealing waves sing meaningless ballads to the children, even like a mother while rocking her baby’s cradle. The sea plays with children, and pale gleams the smile of the sea-beach.

    On the seashore of endless worlds children meet. Tempest roams in the pathless sky, ships are wrecked in the trackless water, death is abroad and children play. On the seashore of endless worlds is the great meeting of children.

    – Rabindranath Tagore

  41. 41
    DrivingBy says:

    Does this board have an ignore function? I came here to read about climate, and someone is spamming their personal nihilism and college-bs kiddie philosophy. I did not come here to visit the Screwloose Coffee & Cannabis Cooperative.

  42. 42
    Nemesis says:

    @DrivingBy, #41

    Right, let’s talk climate, no kids stuff:

    ” Global warming causes the worst kind of extinction domino effect

    Just under two weeks ago, Giovanni Strona and I published a paper in Scientific Reports on measuring the co-extinction effect from climate change. What we found even made me — an acknowledged pessimist — stumble in shock and incredulity…”

    https://conservationbytes.com/2018/11/25/global-warming-causes-the-worst-kind-of-extinction-domino-effect/

    I love discussing climate related facts, the more, the better. Btw, I haven’t seen any climate related comments from you so far, please don’t hesitate, time is running out fast…

  43. 43
    Mr. Know It All says:

    41 – DrivingBy

    OK, I’ll ask some science questions if you insist!

    With all of the “stuff” humans are dumping into the atmosphere, is the atmosphere getting heavier? Any chance the NIST standard pressure of 14.6959 psi will get a tiny bit larger? Are scientists measuring it, perhaps in a decimal place farther to the right?

    [Response: Real curiosity is actually a bit of gateway drug to understanding science, so answering might be of some use. Yes, the atmosphere is getting a little heavier – mainly though water vapor increases (~7% up so far – roughly 1.8mb so far). – gavin]

    Since the atmosphere is warming, is the expansion causing the thickness to increase, and does that cause more molecules to be lost to space due to friction and slightly less gravity at the slightly higher altitude of the outermost particles?

    [Response: No. Warming is not uniform in height – in fact CO2 drives stratospheric and mesospheric cooling, leading to the sky actually falling. – gavin]

  44. 44
    Killian says:

    34 Barton Paul Levenson said As I said, Nemesis, nobody cares about your anti-Christian hatred. Take it somewhere else.

    First, both of you should note Forced Responses is back. Use it.

    Second, BPL, I suspect even fewer appreciate your pointless ideological whine. I didn’t even note any Christian slant of any kind till you mentioned it. Brilliant.

    At least Nemesis is trying to affect change and hold up mirrors. You? Defencing ideology on a science blog? Meh…

  45. 45
    Killian says:

    Re #26, 28, 29 and 34 Nemesis and BPL:

    I am sorry, but after viewing the video posted by Nemesis and BPL’s pejorative comments, I must speak. Levenson accuses Nemesis of anti-Christian **hatred.** That is an extreme characterization even if it were somewhat accurate. However, it is not accurate. The video in question cannot in any way said to be a hateful, propaganda or even anti-Christian.

    It is Levenson who is clearly engaging in hate speech, propaganda and racism. I strongly criticize his comments being published here and emphatically ask they be removed. They should not even be Bore Holed. They have no place here given the content of the video.

    It is the words of indigenous persons’ views of Christianity and its effects on them, their histories and cultures. At least two of the persons cite historical Papal decrees that explicitly state the non-Christian indigenous have no right to any land and the lands they inhabit are empty! As the video says, this justified all the atrocities that followed, all the disposition, and this was the **pope** saying this! I am shocked; I had never heard this before.

    In fact, one speaker is a Hawaiian Ph.D. who quite carefully lays out the differences between the two systems of religion, and does so accurately, IMO. Christianity does, in fact, place humanity above and in a controlling position to Nature and indigenous beliefs generally, in fact, do the opposite. This is hardly stating hatred of Christianity; it is stating observed and commonly known fact.

    To call this video anti-Christian propaganda is baseless ignorance at best, itself propaganda, and marks Levenson clearly, imo, as a religious zealot and bigot, and at worst, and justifiably so, as openly racist.

    Please delete both comments by BPL and sternly address his behaviors. Permanent banning would be appropriate.

  46. 46
    PaulS says:

    Gavin,

    I wondered if you might offer a modeler’s perspective on the recent papers indicating extremely anomalous 20th Century AMOC behaviour in the context of the past thousand years? As far as I understood from looking at what CMIP models produce, significant AMOC departure wasn’t generally expected until about now to mid-21st Century. Am I right about that, and (if so) are there any hypotheses for why it might be happening early?

  47. 47
    4thcorner says:

    I agree that personal religious views have zero place in this forum. Plenty of other internet sites to express such things. Don’t like suggesting banning someone, but it’s ridiculous having to scroll past multiple far off topic posts. Such trolling is a waste of time and energy for those of us who come here for climate science. She/it/he/e/they should be shut down. Please?

  48. 48
    mike says:

    DB at 41: there is no ignore function. I have asked repeatedly for change to allow the killfile addon to be used here, but no joy. The moderation process here is not very good, but if you ask a pertinent and significant scientific question, the scientists will review the question and provide their answers. My process is to just skim the website for anything of interest, then move on. There are better sites to read about climate where the bloggers do moderate and accommodate the “ignore” function you are seeking. Seek and ye shall find.
    Mike

  49. 49
    nigelj says:

    Religion is off topic, unless its linked very closely to the climate issue, eg churches attitudes to the climate issue. All nemesis, bpl’s and killians comments on religion above should be deleted.

  50. 50
    Nemesis says:

    @Killian, #45

    You know, I’m happy for these christians as they will be saved by their god and rise to heaven forever according to their book, no matter if planet Earth will burn in hell, while heathen folks like me will (happily) burn in hell eternally. Hell is my home, I love the FIRE, gimme more and ever more FIRE 38) A propos Fire (to stay on beautiful climate topics):

    Some interesting facts from the Club of Rome adressed to William Nordhaus ( best known for his work in economic modelling and climate change):

    ” 10.11.2018 – The Club of Rome to William Nordhaus and the Nobel Committee: “Pursue profitability — even at the cost of the planet?!”

    Nordhaus has specifically caused damage by spreading six ideas or concepts, that all help excuse postponing strong climate action:

    1. The external cost of climate change grows monotonically as the temperature rises. This has helped reduce the worry that there may be “tipping points” — points of no return — after which it is not possible to return to the world as we know it. The world appears to have passed two such points already, namely the destruction of the coral reefs, and the melting of the permafrost. The first has already partially occurred, and the second may no longer be stopped.

    2. It is meaningful to try to measure the total cost of climate change in monetary terms. What is the value lost when the coral reefs will all be bleached and destroyed because of ocean warming? What is the cost of millions of people having to leave their livelihoods because of sea level rise or severe drought conditions?

    3. Future damage should be discounted to current costs, using a discount rate which reflects the returns that can be obtained in investments in today’s capitalist society. In order to put a meaningful value on a human life in 2100, one needs instead to use low discount rates, for example, the rate of 1 % per year, chosen by the economist Lord Stern in his famous climate report in 2007. That ethical and realistic rational was attacked by Nordhaus and most other neoclassical macroeconomists as not being “cost-efficient”.

    4. In a free market economy, with minimum government intervention, technological innovation (for example substitutes for scarce resources) will emerge fast enough to avoid loss of general wellbeing, because of rising prices for the scarce input and increasing profitability in providing alternatives. This assumption — Nordhaus´ defence when being questioned about possible “tipping points” — is extremely risky.

    5. The damage arising from climate change is equally shared by people around the globe. This is clearly not the case. Experience shows us that the world’s poorest and most vulnerable in low-income countries are and will continue to be on the front lines of climate change and climate related disasters. (Remark Nemesis: Not for long I’m sure.)

    6. The final and ultimate misleading idea that the wellbeing of the majority is measured precisely by output (i.e. by total national GDP measured at market value), when it is fairly obvious that GDP growth in the capitalist world over the last 40 years has not benefitted the majority of working men and women and in truth has led to greater income inequality and disparity between rich and poor.”

    https://medium.com/wedonthavetime/the-club-of-rome-to-william-nordhaus-and-the-nobel-committee-pursue-profitability-even-at-the-37c544e0c03d

    Sure, these points will still be ignored as they have been ignored over and over again, but the final outcome will not be ignored, that’s for granted. Hail the Endsieg of the economy!:

    ” And my God will meet all your needs according to his glorious riches in Christ Jesus.”

    – Philippians 4:19

    Amen.

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