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Unforced variations: Sep 2020

Filed under: — group @ 1 September 2020

This month’s open thread on climate science topics. Things to look for – Arctic sea ice minimum, boreal wildfires and the Atlantic hurricane season – you know, the usual…

231 Responses to “Unforced variations: Sep 2020”

  1. 201
    nigelj says:

    In relation to my previous comment on californias wildfires: “(Reuters) – While more than half of California’s forests fall under federal management, the U.S. Forest Service consistently spends fewer dollars than the state in managing those lands to reduce wildfire risks, a Reuters data analysis reveals.”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-wildfires-forests-insight/california-outpaced-trumps-forest-service-in-wildfire-prevention-work-data-idINKCN26E2UQ

  2. 202
    nigelj says:

    Victor @199, some good points, but Venezuela is a mess and Maduro is incompetent and corrupt, regardless of the oil issue. If you want to quote successful sensible socialist leaning countries try Scandinavia (The nordic countries).

  3. 203
    Al Bundy says:

    “KIA lies again …”

    AB: Wellllllll. KIA is a self-made moron. He was a tad above average IQ in school but had incredible advantage, being White.

    But his trajectory didn’t fit his bigoted view of his worth – imagine an average Joe who NEEDS to beat all the n-words to even rate as full-human.

    The results are easy to predict, eh?

  4. 204
    Russell says:

    199

    Victor, what part of Tien An Men Square don’t you understand ?

  5. 205
    Mr. Know It All says:

    199 – Victor (amoleintheground)

    Keep your day job. You do not have a future in economics or history. ;)

  6. 206

    V 199: Maduro continues to have widespread support because the principal concern of his socialist government is the welfare of the people

    BPL: Except for the ones he has jailed and tortured.

    V: I lived for months in “communist” Yugoslavia, under Tito and found it to be the best country I’d ever lived in: no beggars, no slums, no fear of reprisals for speaking freely.

    BPL: And it fell apart into a mutually genocidal free-for-all the moment Tito died.

  7. 207
    Western Hiker says:

    Patrick,

    The IR ‘glow’ would be brightest near the horizon and the least intense looking straight up. This is the only temperature gradient we could ever perceive. A small section of sky, where the horizontal/vertical contrast is too subtle to make out, would appear to have a uniform color.

    Is this something we agree on?

    ———

    Of course, the overall brightness would decrease if we moved to a higher altitude, for the same reason the sky is darker on top of a mountain compared to sea level…. thinner atmosphere.

  8. 208
    Michael W. says:

    Apparently the Trump White House has been recruiting the likes of Judith Curry and Richard Spencer to take senior positions at NOAA. Offhand, this strikes me as similar to offering a position to Charles Manson on the FBI’s serial killer unit, but much more dangerous given the stakes.

    -“Rosenberg, who now runs the Center for Science and Democracy at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said the political appointments could be a strategic way to get climate denialists “burrowed” in at NOAA. If the political appointees are offered career positions, they will be much harder to dismiss after Trump is gone because of protections for federal workers, Rosenberg said.”

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/trump-white-house-recruited-climate-science-critics-work-noaa

  9. 209
    Killian says:

    190 Guest (O.): Climate Disruption Is Now Locked In. The Next Moves Will Be Crucial
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/22/climate/climate-change-future.html

    Only partially. SLR of meters, yes. Other aspects, not so much IF we make the right choices in a hurry.

    Model being at 280 ppm by 2050 and get back to me on just what is actually baked in and what is mere pessimism and refusal to act in the most effective ways.

  10. 210
    Killian says:

    196 Mr. Know It All says: 194 – Killian
    “Please tell me how you square that curve with anything but rapid simplification and Regenerative Governance. There is no currently existing economic system that can handle that.”

    A hint to the answer you are looking for: we are not going to “simplify” and live like the ancients.

    Straw Man. Lie. And suicidal.

    Stop it; you’ll make nigelj jealous.

  11. 211
    Al Bundy says:

    Mrkia: The only economic system that can handle our needs is free market capitalism. All others that have been tried have failed, and always will.

    AB: It is abundantly clear that “free market capitalism” has failed miserably. It has shredded humanity and turned civilization into a “fake news clusterf***”. It is literally destroying the biosphere.

    Capitalism is such a horrendous system that it literally has produced a decline in median quality of life in the USA over the last half century even though scientists and inventors (NOT capital) have increased productivity by a factor of four. That’s TOTAL failure, eh?

    What’s needed is a modern economic system that values people instead of capital: Laborism.

  12. 212
    Mr. Know It All says:

    203 – Al Bundy
    “But his trajectory didn’t fit his bigoted view of his worth – imagine an average Joe who NEEDS to beat all the n-words to even rate as full-human.”

    Huh? Don’t know where that came from, but perhaps you are thinking not of average Joe, but Creepy Joe? He was gonna beat corn-pop with a chain, right? Right after the kids got done stroking his hairy legs in the pool. :)

    The chain:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4NmtSrqtvI

    Hairy legs:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DbE2SmV2bs
    :)

    201 – nigelj
    Tell us how the US Forest Service, and the National Park Service should clear the undergrowth in forests that are Congressionally Designated Wilderness where use of mechanized tools is prohibited by law? It isn’t possible: if you try it, lawsuits will be filed, the state and federal air quality folks will fine you if you burn it, etc. Now you know the rest of the story. ;)

  13. 213
    MA Rodger says:

    Adam Lea @200,
    You’re saying the reason we have not seen any five-year runs of Atlantic hurricane seasons with ACE>100 is because a significant El Niño would prevent years of high ACE. So are you saying we have never seen on record before a run of five years without a significant El Niño?

    The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season attained the ACE>100 racking up 23 named storms (second only to the 28 of 2005) only to quieten down and stop. The previous 15 years show average post-September additions to ACE of +30 within the range 5 to 80. So there could yet be more fireworks to come or there may not.

  14. 214
    MA Rodger says:

    Michael W. @208,
    The three people the Narcissist of Pennsylvania Ave has been recruiting for the NOAA are a couple of denialists David Legates & Ryan Maue and an Erik Ulysses Noble who may not be a denialist. Your link is saying that denialists Judy Curry, Roy Spencer & John Christy turned down the invitation.

  15. 215
    DasKleineTeilchen says:

    anybody knows whats going on with this?

    https://www.meereisportal.de/en/seaicemonitoring/sea-ice-observations-from-satellite-measurements/current-sea-ice-maps/

    the graphic for the actual sea-ice-area (not the sea-ice-extent) wasnt updated since the 9th of september, right before the minimum, which looked quite disturbing and seemed almost to beat the minimum from 2012:

    https://data.meereisportal.de/maps/latest/area_n_en.png

  16. 216
    Victor says:

    Russell sez: “Victor, what part of Tien An Men Square don’t you understand ?”

    V: The Tiananmen Square demonstrations were about human rights, not socialism.

    >V 199: Maduro continues to have widespread support because the principal concern of his socialist government is the welfare of the people

    >BPL: Except for the ones he has jailed and tortured.

    I’m not defending Maduro, I’m defending socialism. Regardless of his human rights record, which does appear pretty dismal, he was re-elected in the face of powerful forces marshaled against him and has managed to remain in power in spite of strong US opposition. Not because he’s such a nice guy but because the majority of ordinary working people clearly prefer socialism.

    V: I lived for months in “communist” Yugoslavia, under Tito and found it to be the best country I’d ever lived in: no beggars, no slums, no fear of reprisals for speaking freely.

    BPL: And it fell apart into a mutually genocidal free-for-all the moment Tito died.

    Yes, tragically it all fell apart after Tito’s death. Yet once again this had nothing to do with socialism. Tito held things together because he was a war hero. After his death, long-term resentments stemming from WWII flared up again and, with the encouragement of the Western powers, including the USA, nationalist ambitions took precedence over decency and common sense, resulting in an eminently avoidable bloodbath.

    The argument for socialism remains solid despite all the many efforts by western powers and the US to undermine it. A government whose priority is the welfare of the great majority of its citizens is clearly preferable to a government whose priority is the ambitions of ruthless billionaires.

  17. 217
    patrick027 says:

    re 207 Western Hiker – yes, exactly (except, for that small patch of sky, if it happens to contain the edge of a cloud, etc.)… Variation over direction, and variation over position, are the two ways a temperature variation manifests visually. I’m particularly interested in the directional variation, as it determines the net radiant flux through an area. Generally, except where conditions and the part of the spectrum make an inversion layer sufficiently visible, it will be brightest looking down and dimmest looking up; once opacity is such that you can only see the local temperature gradient, further adding more GHGs or cloud at your location will tend to even this out, so the dimmer direction gets brighter and the brighter direction gets dimmer.

  18. 218
    patrick027 says:

    once opacity is such that you can only see the local temperature gradient,” … [or if the local temperature gradient is in the same direction as the larger scale gradient]…

  19. 219
    patrick027 says:

    Of course, the overall brightness would decrease if we moved to a higher altitude, for the same reason the sky is darker on top of a mountain compared to sea level…. thinner atmosphere.” – for looking generally upward, eventually, when you get into the Earth’s photosphere, whose height depends on wavelength and cloud cover … the dimming would be due to the thinning of the remaining atmosphere, as one sees with scattered solar radiation especially ~ 400 – 450… nm in cloud free sky. Otherwise, the brightness in the horizontal direction (or between that and the horizon, due to the curve of the Earth) would tend to follow the temperature at one’s height, until /except when/for the effect of the Earth’s roundness limiting the horizontal distance through the layer of air (infinite distance would tend to close up all atmospheric windows, etc., but we don’t get that far)… I think…

  20. 220
    patrick027 says:

    the dimming would be due [at least in part] to the thinning

  21. 221
    patrick027 says:

    Actually, there are 3 situations where the brightness would be constant, or nearly so, from zenith to near horizontal or beyond to near the horizon, and then get brighter going down from the horizon to nadir:

    More opaque wavenumbers, standing on (or leaning down towards) the ground, sunny day, dry hard dark surface, calm… etc… (or perhaps cold air advection over warm water) – ie. where the temperature drops significantly from the surface to the air just above.

    2. just below a layer-type cloud.

    3. above the atmosphere (limb darkenning).

  22. 222
    nigelj says:

    Victor @216, I will respond on the FR thread about socialism. Its more appropriate on the FR thread.

  23. 223
    nigelj says:

    Killian @210 KIA has probably misinterpreted what you mean about simplification, just as many people have. Perhaps KIA has only read some of your comments, like the ones where you tell us all how terrible modern society is (mostly)and how wonderful indigenous people are (mostly), and he jumps to conclusions. You will probably go on blaming people, wondering why nobody understands simplification, and why not many people show you and your ideas any respect. Perhaps you will go on expending a lot of horse power, without ever getting the intended results.

    Or alternatively you could define simplification in a bit of detail, and either copy and paste it from time to time, or provide a link to such information in your various comments. That would help. Thats what a smart person would do. Hells bells even an idiot would do that much. :)

  24. 224
    MA Rodger says:

    DasKleineTeilchen @215,
    The seaiceportal.de team were tackling an algorithm problem which seems to have been sorted on 12th Sept. It is possible that in republishing the daily Arctic Sea Ice Extent graphics, they have overlooked the Sea Ice Area graphics which are thus as you show frozen at 9th Sept. You could perhaps contact somebody on the team to ask for the actual reason.

  25. 225
    Adam Lea says:

    213: I didn’t quite say that, I suggested that one reason five consecutive 100+ Atlantic ACE years is rare is because in any period of five years, there tends to be an El Nino event which suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity (and an El Nino is not the only thing that can knock a season’s activity down). Taking the current active phase, there were El Nino events suppressing hurricane seasons in the early 1990’s, 1997, 2002, 2006, 2009, and 2015. There was a recent five year period without an El Nino (2010-2014) which contained a very strange year (2013) where pre-seasonal forecasts expected at least average if not above-average activity, but the season was very inactive. I’m not sure why 2013 was such a quiet season in the absence of any obvious suppressing large scale parameters, but if it weren’t for that freak year, 2010-2014 would have been another 5-year consecutive 100+ ACE period.

    It is primarily atmospheric conditions which influence how active a hurricane season will become. The sea surface temperature influences how strong any storm can potentially become given perfect atmospheric conditions exist at the time of the storm development (hence why most storms never reach their maximum potential intensity).

  26. 226
    Mal Adapted says:

    Kevin McKinney, before the FR thread closed:

    One reason that the Feds have been neglecting forest management is that a succession of big fire seasons (plus Congressional stinginess/priorities) has forced them to throw–er, sorry, “reallocate”–all sorts of funds into fire-fighting rather than their intended purposes, because the fire-fighting budget got blown out early in the fire season.

    I came to UV to fashion a lengthy response, then fat-fingered it to oblivion. That’s OK, I’ll just cite my sources. Up until 2018, the USFS had to spend more and more of its overall budget to fight wildfire. That changed in 2018, when Congress allocated an additional $2.8G to the FS specifically for fire suppression in FY 2018 (October 2018 to September 2019). For a history of the Forest Service’s fire funding before then, I recommend Fire funding fix comes with environmental rollbacks, from High Country News. I also recommend Oregon Public Broadcasting’s Oct. 2018 report, How Fire Consumed The Forest Service Budget: in their eyes, it’s a story of legislative capture by for-profit interests.

    Apparently that extra $2.8G helped. In Oct. 2019, Arizona PBS reported Money to burn: Forest Service wildfire fund ends its year in the black. For a somewhat more recent analysis, see this Wildfire Today article from last Febuary. Ima let the Ecological Society of America bring y’all up to date. It maintains a detailed Federal Budget Tracker.

  27. 227
    Mal Adapted says:

    Sorry, it looks like federal fiscal years start 3 months in advance of the temporal ones, not 9 months into them. Confused yet?

  28. 228
    Russell says:

    216
    ” Russell sez: “Victor, what part of Tien An Men Square don’t you understand ?”

    V: The Tiananmen Square demonstrations were about human rights, not socialism.”

    Thank you Victor, that changes everything

    Glory to the comrades of the Peoples Liberation Army for developing
    tanks that can crush human rights while leaving socialism unscathed.

  29. 229
    Western Hiker says:

    Mr. KIA, 212

    “Tell us how the US Forest Service, and the National Park Service should clear the undergrowth in forests that are Congressionally Designated Wilderness where use of mechanized tools is prohibited by law? It isn’t possible: if you try it, lawsuits will be filed, the state and federal air quality folks will fine you if you burn it, etc. Now you know the rest of the story. ;)”

    In California, those forests make less than half of the National Forest System, and 53% of the forests have no such restriction.

    https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fsmrs_072344.pdf

    As for clearing undergrowth without mechanized tools? The Wilderness Act intended for lightning caused fires to only be suppressed/extinguished if they threatened communities or forests outside of the wilderness boundary. Turns out this was the case more often than not, and fires were seldom left to burn.

  30. 230
    sidd says:

    Briner et al. (including realclimate’s own Steig) have a paper out on GIS through the last 12000 yrs and project that this century mass loss will exceed that of any other century in that period.

    doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2742-6

    sidd

  31. 231
    Russell says:

    208

    The real horror is that Curry & Spencer declined Trump’s offer, opening the door for hacks from bottom of the Heartland and Discovery Institute B-list

    https://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2020/09/new-from-award-winning-grifters-of.html

  32. 232

    This would be a tad less O/T on Forced Responses, but we seem to be in between FVs. So–I have just released an album containing 14 original songs in full-band arrangements, many of which deal lyrically with issues relevant to this august site’s prime topic.

    It’s on all major digital platforms, almost certainly including any you may subscribe to, so feel free to check it out!

    If you’re more of a download person, well, Amazon Music has it–you can sample 30 seconds of all tracks by way of ‘tasting’:

    https://www.amazon.com/Carolina-Maze-Doc-Snow/dp/B08JPNTNRQ/

    If you like it, you can purchase it there.

    /OT

    Carry on!