{"id":112,"date":"2005-01-24T14:58:55","date_gmt":"2005-01-24T18:58:55","guid":{"rendered":"\/?p=112"},"modified":"2006-11-30T13:56:22","modified_gmt":"2006-11-30T18:56:22","slug":"anomalous-recent-warmth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/archives\/2005\/01\/anomalous-recent-warmth\/","title":{"rendered":"Anomalous Recent Warmth in Europe R\u00e9chauffement r\u00e9cent anormal en Europe <\/lang_fr>"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Guest Contribution by Juerg Luterbacher<\/strong>, University of Bern, Switzerland<\/small><\/p>\n

While the anomalous nature of recent trends in global average temperature<\/a> is often highlighted in discussions of climate change, changes at regional scales<\/a> have potentially greater societal significance. Of particular interest, for example, is the possible relationship between climate change and the incidence of summer heat waves<\/a> [Meehl, G.A. and C. Tebaldi, Science<\/em>, 305, 994-997 , 2004] such as those observed in Europe during summer 2003 [see Schaer et al<\/a>, Nature<\/em> 427, 332-336 2004; Stott et al<\/a>, Nature<\/em>, 432, 610-614\u00ad, 2004]. Preliminary analyses of the annual mean surface air temperatures for Europe for 2004 show it be among the few warmest (though not as warm as 1989, 1990, and 1999-2003) since widespread instrumental records have been kept (roughly the past 150 years). 2004 exceeded the reference period (1961-1990) mean temperature by more than 0.8\u00b0C. The largest deviations were found over Northern and Eastern Europe. Every single month of 2004 contributed to the overall warmth; February-April, August, October and December were all more than 1\u00b0C warmer than the 1961-1990 period. Annual mean European surface air temperatures have increased by around 0.85\u00b0C<\/a> over the last 100 years. The upward trend has accelerated in recent decades, with about 1.2\u00b0C of warming taking place over the past 30 years (1975 to 2004). Indeed, the last thirty years likely represent the warmest multidecadal period for Europe in at least the past half millennium<\/a> [ Luterbacher, J., Dietrich, D., Xoplaki, E., Grosjean, M. and H. Wanner, Science<\/em>, 303, 1499-1503, 2004], while the last decade (1995-2004) is likely the warmest decade, and summer 2003 the warmest summer. These conclusions are similar to those reached for the entire Northern Hemisphere<\/a> on the whole.<\/p>\n


\n Contribution invit\u00e9e de Juerg Luterbacher<\/strong>, universit\u00e9 de Berne, Suisse (traduit par Thibault de Garidel et Gilles Delaygue) <\/small><\/p>\n

Alors que la nature anormale des tendances r\u00e9centes de la temp\u00e9rature moyenne globale<\/a> est souvent soulign\u00e9e dans les discussions sur le changement climatique, les changements aux \u00e9chelles r\u00e9gionales<\/a> ont une signification soci\u00e9tale potentiellement plus importante. Un exemple particulier est le lien possible entre le changement climatique et l’incidence des vagues de chaleur estivales<\/a> [Meehl, G.A. et C. Tebaldi, Science<\/em>, 305, 994-997, 2004] comme celles observ\u00e9es en Europe pendant l’\u00e9t\u00e9 2003 [ voir Schaer et al.<\/a> , Nature<\/em>, 427, 332-336, 2004; Stott et al.<\/a> , Nature<\/em>, 432, 610-614, 2004]. Des analyses pr\u00e9liminaires des temp\u00e9ratures moyennes annuelles de l’air pour l’Europe pour l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2004 montrent que cette ann\u00e9e figure parmi les plus chaudes (mais pas aussi chaude que les ann\u00e9es 1989, 1990, et 1999-2003) depuis que des mesures instrumentales sont disponibles (approximativement les 150 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es). La temp\u00e9rature moyenne de 2004 d\u00e9passait de plus de 0,8\u00b0C les temp\u00e9ratures moyennes de la p\u00e9riode de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence 1961-1990. Les plus fortes anomalies ont \u00e9t\u00e9 observ\u00e9es en Europe de l’Est et dans les pays Scandinaves. Pour chaque mois de 2004, la temp\u00e9rature \u00e9tait sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 celle de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence; pendant les mois de F\u00e9vrier-Avril, Ao\u00fbt, Octobre et D\u00e9cembre la temp\u00e9rature d\u00e9passait de plus de 1\u00b0C la p\u00e9riode 1961-1990. Au cours des 100 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, les temp\u00e9ratures moyennes annuelles de surface en Europe ont augment\u00e9 d\u2019environ 0,85\u00b0C<\/a>. La tendance \u00e0 la hausse s\u2019est acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e au cours des derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies, avec environ 1,2\u00b0C de r\u00e9chauffement au cours des 30 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es (1975 \u00e0 2004). En fait, les trente derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es sont probablement la p\u00e9riode plurid\u00e9cennale la plus chaude en Europe des 500 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es<\/a> au moins [Luterbacher, J., Dietrich, D., Xoplaki, E., Grosjean, M. et H. Wanner, Science<\/em>, 303, 1499-1503, 2004], alors que la derni\u00e8re d\u00e9cennie (1995-2004) est probablement la d\u00e9cennie la plus chaude, et enfin l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9 2003 celui le plus chaud. Ces conclusions sont semblables \u00e0 celles tir\u00e9es pour l’ensemble de l\u2019h\u00e9misph\u00e8re Nord<\/a>.
\n<\/lang_fr><\/lang_fr><\/p>\n\n<\/div> ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Guest Contribution by Juerg Luterbacher, University of Bern, Switzerland While the anomalous nature of recent trends in global average temperature is often highlighted in discussions of climate change, changes at regional scales have potentially greater societal significance. Of particular interest, for example, is the possible relationship between climate change and the incidence of summer heat […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1,9,2],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-112","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-climate-science","7":"category-instrumental-record","8":"category-paleoclimate","9":"entry"},"aioseo_notices":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=112"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}