{"id":19030,"date":"2016-01-21T08:29:53","date_gmt":"2016-01-21T13:29:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/?p=19030"},"modified":"2016-01-21T22:28:05","modified_gmt":"2016-01-22T03:28:05","slug":"2015-temperatures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/archives\/2016\/01\/2015-temperatures\/","title":{"rendered":"2015 Temperatures"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"kcite-section\" kcite-section-id=\"19030\">\n<p>To no-one&#8217;s great surprise, 2015 was clearly a record year in all the surface temperature analyses (<a href=\"http:\/\/data.giss.nasa.gov\/gistemp\">GISTEMP<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ncdc.noaa.gov\/sotc\/summary-info\/global\/201512\">NOAA<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/hadobs\/hadcrut4\/\">HadCRUT4<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www-users.york.ac.uk\/~kdc3\/papers\/coverage2013\/series.html\">Cowtan&#038;Way<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/ds.data.jma.go.jp\/tcc\/tcc\/products\/gwp\/temp\/ann_wld.html\">JMA<\/a> + <a href=\"http:\/\/berkeleyearth.org\/temperature-reports\/\">Berkeley Earth<\/a>). There is a lot of discussion of this in the press, and on the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.giss.nasa.gov\/research\/news\/20160120\/\">relevant<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/news\/releases\/archive\/2016\/2015-global-temperature\">websites<\/a>, so not much to add here. A few figures didn&#8217;t make it into the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.giss.nasa.gov\/research\/news\/20160120\/noaa_nasa_global_analysis_2015.pdf\">official announcement<\/a> (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.noaanews.noaa.gov\/advisories\/011516-advisory-noaa-nasa-to-announce-official-analyses-of-2015-global-temperature-climate-conditions.html\">audio<\/a>) though&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/images\/gistemp_2015_degC.jpg\" width=80% src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1650px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1650\/1275;\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/images\/gistemp_preI_2015.jpg\" width=80% src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1217px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1217\/1007;\" \/><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">How 2015 stacked up compared to other record years:&#10;via <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NASAGISS\">@NASAGISS<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/pt090ncIX5\">pic.twitter.com\/pt090ncIX5<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ClimateOfGavin\/status\/689836466554408960\">January 20, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Has there been a &#39;pause&#39; in global warming? (Spoiler: no) <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YtRpOqlVco\">pic.twitter.com\/YtRpOqlVco<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ClimateOfGavin\/status\/689845553782493186\">January 20, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;ll update this post with relevant and interesting analysis as it comes up. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Update:<\/strong> People have asked about the impact of ENSO. In the following figure I took the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/ensostuff\/ensoyears.shtml\">ONI index<\/a> and found the lead with the greatest correlation to the monthly GISTEMP values (2 months), regressed that out, and recalculated the annual means.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/images\/gistemp_mei_correct.jpg\" width=80% src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1582px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1582\/1043;\" \/><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<small>Ignore the &#8216;MEI&#8217; labels, it really was the ONI index.<\/small><\/p>\n<!-- kcite active, but no citations found -->\n<\/div> <!-- kcite-section 19030 -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>To no-one&#8217;s great surprise, 2015 was clearly a record year in all the surface temperature analyses (GISTEMP, NOAA, HadCRUT4, Cowtan&#038;Way, JMA + Berkeley Earth). There is a lot of discussion of this in the press, and on the relevant websites, so not much to add here. A few figures didn&#8217;t make it into the official [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1,27,9],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-19030","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-climate-science","7":"category-el-nino","8":"category-instrumental-record","9":"entry"},"aioseo_notices":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19030","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19030"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19030\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19039,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19030\/revisions\/19039"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19030"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19030"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19030"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}