{"id":23034,"date":"2020-03-20T09:56:06","date_gmt":"2020-03-20T14:56:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/?p=23034"},"modified":"2020-03-21T18:48:43","modified_gmt":"2020-03-21T23:48:43","slug":"coronavirus-and-climate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/archives\/2020\/03\/coronavirus-and-climate\/","title":{"rendered":"Coronavirus and climate"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"kcite-section\" kcite-section-id=\"23034\">\n\n<p>As we collectively reel from the changes wrought by the current pandemic, people are being drawn by analogy to climate issues &#8211; but analogies can be tricky and often distort as much as they illuminate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For instance, in the Boston Globe, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2020\/03\/14\/opinion\/im-skeptical-about-climate-alarmism-i-take-coronavirus-fears-seriously\/?p1=Article_Feed_AuthorQuery&amp;p1=Article_Inline_Text_Link\">Jeff Jacoby&#8217;s commentary<\/a> was not particularly insightful and misquoted Mike Mann pretty egregiously. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2020\/03\/19\/opinion\/climatologist-makes-clear-were-still-pandemic-path-with-global-warming\/\">Mike&#8217;s response<\/a> is good:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>I  am relieved to see policy makers treating the coronavirus threat with  the urgency it deserves. They need to do the same when it comes to an  even greater underlying threat: human-caused climate change.<\/p><p>In a recent column (<a class=\"\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bostonglobe.com\/2020\/03\/14\/opinion\/im-skeptical-about-climate-alarmism-i-take-coronavirus-fears-seriously\/?p1=Article_Feed_AuthorQuery&amp;p1=Article_Inline_Text_Link\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cI\u2019m skeptical about climate alarmism, but I take coronavirus fears seriously,\u201d<\/a>  Ideas, March 15), Jeff Jacoby sought to reconcile his longstanding  rejection of the wisdom of scientific expertise when it comes to climate  with his embrace of such expertise when it comes to the coronavirus.<\/p><p>In so doing, Jacoby took my words out of context, mischaracterizing my criticisms of those who overstate the climate threat <a class=\"\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/MichaelMannScientist\/posts\/1470539096335621\" target=\"_blank\">\u201cin a way that presents the problem<\/a> as unsolvable, and feeds a sense of doom, inevitability, and hopelessness.\u201d<\/p><p>As I have pointed out in <a class=\"\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/doomsday-scenarios-are-as-harmful-as-climate-change-denial\/2017\/07\/12\/880ed002-6714-11e7-a1d7-9a32c91c6f40_story.html?noredirect=on\" target=\"_blank\">past commentaries,<\/a>  the truth is bad enough when it comes to the devastating impacts of  climate change, which include unprecedented floods, heat waves, drought,  and wildfires that are now unfolding around the world, including <a class=\"\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/its-not-rocket-science-climate-change-was-behind-this-summers-extreme-weather\/2018\/11\/02\/b8852584-dea9-11e8-b3f0-62607289efee_story.html\" target=\"_blank\">the United States<\/a> and <a class=\"\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2020\/jan\/02\/australia-your-country-is-burning-dangerous-climate-change-is-here-with-you-now\" target=\"_blank\">Australia,<\/a> where I am on sabbatical.<\/p><p>The  evidence is clear that climate change is a serious challenge we must  tackle now. There\u2019s no need to exaggerate it, particularly when it feeds  a paralyzing narrative of doom and hopelessness.<\/p><p>There is still time to avoid the worst outcomes, if we act boldly now, not  out of fear, but out of confidence that the future is still largely in  our hands. That sentiment hardly supports Jacoby\u2019s narrative of climate  change as an overblown problem or one that lacks urgency.<\/p><p>While  we have only days to flatten the curve of the coronavirus, we\u2019ve had  years to flatten the curve of CO2 emissions. Unfortunately, thanks in  part to people like Jacoby, we\u2019re still currently on the climate  pandemic path.<\/p><p>Michael E. Mann<\/p><p>State College, Pa.<\/p><p>The writer is a professor at Penn State University, where he is director of the Earth System Science Center.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Direct connections<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vice.com\/en_us\/article\/7kzqja\/coronavirus-emissions-climate-science?utm_campaign=sharebutton\">direct connections<\/a> too. The lockdowns and travel restrictions are having a material effect on emissions of short-lived air pollutants (like NOx, SO2 etc.), water discharges and carbon dioxide as well. The impacts on <a href=\"https:\/\/earthobservatory.nasa.gov\/images\/146362\/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china\">air<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2020\/03\/18\/photos-water-in-venice-italys-canals-clear-amid-covid-19-lockdown.html\">water quality <\/a>are already being seen &#8211; perhaps allowing people to reset their shifted baselines for what clean air and water are like.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><iframe title=\"Coronavirus: nitrogen dioxide emissions drop over Italy\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ARpxtAKsORw?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" data-load-mode=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Business-as-usual is kaput<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Obviously, nothing is going to be quite the same after this. We will soon be describing prior norms and behaviours as &#8220;that is so BC&#8221; (before coronavirus). Already, when watching pre-recorded TV shows, I internally cringe when seeing the handshaking and hugging. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But it should also be obvious that for worst-case scenarios to materialise, it is a combination of factors that drive the results. Luck, good or bad, and decisions, wise or unwise, combine to create the future. Luck drives the specific potency of the virus, it&#8217;s incubation period and lethality, but societal decisions determined the preparation (or lack thereof),  the health care system design or capacity (or lack thereof), and governmental responses (adequate or not). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Indeed, every possible future can only be reached by a specific track of what is (the science) and what we do about it (the policy). That is no different with climate as it is with pandemics. There is no possible future in which no-one made any decisions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">This probably doesn\u2019t need to be said, but planning for low probability, high impact, worst case scenarios is looking pretty smart right now.<\/p>&mdash; Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ClimateOfGavin\/status\/1239155866449911809?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 15, 2020<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script> <\/p>\n<!-- kcite active, but no citations found -->\n<\/div> <!-- kcite-section 23034 -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As we collectively reel from the changes wrought by the current pandemic, people are being drawn by analogy to climate issues &#8211; but analogies can be tricky and often distort as much as they illuminate. For instance, in the Boston Globe, Jeff Jacoby&#8217;s commentary was not particularly insightful and misquoted Mike Mann pretty egregiously. Mike&#8217;s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":23035,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17,41,1,66,3],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-23034","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-aerosols","8":"category-climate-impacts","9":"category-climate-science","10":"category-coronavirus","11":"category-greenhouse-gases","12":"entry"},"aioseo_notices":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23034","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23034"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23034\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23040,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23034\/revisions\/23040"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23035"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23034"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23034"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23034"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}