{"id":25549,"date":"2024-05-11T22:02:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-12T03:02:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/?p=25549"},"modified":"2024-12-06T18:40:01","modified_gmt":"2024-12-06T23:40:01","slug":"new-journal-nature-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/archives\/2024\/05\/new-journal-nature-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"New journal: <i>Nature 2023<\/i>?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"kcite-section\" kcite-section-id=\"25549\">\n\n<p>[Last update Dec 6, 2024] There were a number of media reports today [May 11, 2024] related to <span id=\"cite_ITEM-25549-0\" name=\"citation\"><a href=\"#ITEM-25549-0\">Yuan et al. (2024)<\/a><\/span>, for instance, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newscientist.com\/article\/2433564-cleaner-ship-emissions-may-warm-the-planet-far-faster-than-expected\/\" title=\"New Scientist\">New Scientist<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/article\/2024\/may\/30\/termination-shock-cut-in-ship-pollution-sparked-global-heating-spurt\" title=\"The Guardian\">The Guardian<\/a> etc. However, this is really just the beginning of what is likely to be a bit of a cottage industry in the next few months relating to possible causes\/influences on the extreme temperatures seen in 2023. So to help people keep track, we&#8217;ll maintain a list here to focus discussions. Additionally, we&#8217;ll extract out the key results (such as the reported radiative forcing) as a guide to how this will all eventually get reconciled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p>We&#8217;ll split the papers up by process\/topic, or if the paper is general or integrative. Let us know in the comments if there are relevant papers we&#8217;ve missed. [Update: it should go without saying that we are <em>not<\/em> discussing the reason why recent years have been so much warmer than the pre-industrial, that is <a href=\"https:\/\/svs.gsfc.nasa.gov\/4908\/\" title=\"well known\">well known<\/a> and should be uncontroversial (ha!), rather we are focused on the specifics of what happened in 2023 compared to other recent years].<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Update 10 August 2024:<\/strong> We are convening a session at the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.agu.org\/annual-meeting\" title=\"Fall AGU meeting\">Fall AGU meeting<\/a> in DC (Dec. 9-13, 2024) entitled &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/agu.confex.com\/agu\/agu24\/prelim.cgi\/Session\/225040\" title=\"GC053: Cracking the puzzle of the Anomalous Temperatures in 2023: Observational and modeling studies to identify and understand potential factors and future implications.\">GC053: Cracking the puzzle of the Anomalous Temperatures in 2023: Observational and modeling studies to identify and understand potential factors and future implications.<\/a>&#8220;. We got 20 abstracts submitted, and so there will be an oral and poster session. See you there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Update 6 Dec 2024<\/strong>: See <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/archives\/2024\/12\/nature-2023-part-ii\/\" title=\"this post\">this post<\/a> for a continuation of this topic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>General<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/state-of-the-climate-2023-smashes-records-for-surface-temperature-and-ocean-heat\/\" title=\"Climate Brief discussion of the 2023 anomaly.\">Carbon Brief discussion of the 2023 anomaly<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/berkeleyearth.org\/september-2023-temperature-update\/\" title=\"inability of models\">inability of the CMIP6 models<\/a> to capture the strangeness in the anomalies in the fall.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>My commentary from March: <span id=\"cite_ITEM-25549-1\" name=\"citation\"><a href=\"#ITEM-25549-1\">Schmidt (2024)<\/a><\/span>,  which suggests that there is roughly 0.2\u00baC in the global annual mean and more in the second half of the year, that appears <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/archives\/2024\/01\/annual-gmsat-predictions-and-enso\/\" title=\"Annual GMSAT predictions and ENSO\">anomalous<\/a> (compared to simple expectations based on the long term trend and the state of ENSO at the beginning of the year). <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"439\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/\/2023_graphic_oct24-600x439.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25722 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/2023_graphic_oct24-600x439.png 600w, https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/2023_graphic_oct24-300x219.png 300w, https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/2023_graphic_oct24-1536x1123.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/2023_graphic_oct24-2048x1498.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 600px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 600\/439;\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Recent temperature anomalies (red line) [Updated 11\/11\/2024], compared to the previous records (dashed), and an expectation based on long term trends + 3 month lagged response to ENSO (with 95% CI) (Note: As of June, this now uses <a href=\"https:\/\/psl.noaa.gov\/data\/correlation\/nina34.anom.data\" title=\"Nino34\">Nino34<\/a> instead of <a href=\"https:\/\/psl.noaa.gov\/enso\/mei\/\" title=\"MEI \">MEI <\/a>which is (for now?) no longer being updated. Also anomalies are now w.r.t. 1850-1900).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>There is in fact a <em>Nature<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/collections\/ahbedcfifa\" title=\"special collection for 2023 climate\">special collection for 2023 climate<\/a>. Ha.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span id=\"cite_ITEM-25549-2\" name=\"citation\"><a href=\"#ITEM-25549-2\">Rantanen and Laaksonen (2024)<\/a><\/span> show that the September 2023 anomalies are unlike anything seen in the CMIP6 model ensemble.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"404\" src=\"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/\/Rantanen24_fig2-600x404.webp\" alt=\"Fig 2 from Rantanen and Laaksonen (2024) showing the magnitude of September record anomalies across the ensembles and showing that the observed record was well outside the modeled spread. \" class=\"wp-image-25585\" style=\"object-fit:cover;width:470px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/Rantanen24_fig2-600x404.webp 600w, https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/Rantanen24_fig2-300x202.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/Rantanen24_fig2.webp 685w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span id=\"cite_ITEM-25549-3\" name=\"citation\"><a href=\"#ITEM-25549-3\">Kuhlbrodt et al. (2024)<\/a><\/span> has a summary of all the interesting climate events in 2023.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span id=\"cite_ITEM-25549-4\" name=\"citation\"><a href=\"#ITEM-25549-4\">Tippett and Becker (2024)<\/a><\/span> assess the skill of initialized predictions for 2023 and find that while their skill is largely related to ENSO, they uniformly underestimated predictions of 2023 warmth.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Impacts of Hunga-Tonga Hunga Ha&#8217;apai (HTHH)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The eruption of HTHH in January 2022, reached 56km high in the stratosphere and increased stratospheric water vapor by ~10% while also depositing SO<sub>2<\/sub> in the stratosphere. The mix of warming and cooling effects and different timescales for each, makes calculating the impact hard. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span id=\"cite_ITEM-25549-5\" name=\"citation\"><a href=\"#ITEM-25549-5\">Schoeberl et al (2024)<\/a><\/span> &#8220;HTHH produced a global forcing of -0.17\u00b10.07 W\/m<sup>2<\/sup> over 2022-2023&#8243;. (i.e. a net cooling!).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span id=\"cite_ITEM-25549-6\" name=\"citation\"><a href=\"#ITEM-25549-6\">Sellito et al, 2024<\/a><\/span> estimate the SO2 burden from HTHH as ~1.6 Tg sulphate. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Impacts of IMO2020 (Marine shipping emission changes)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Overview of the pre-existing results from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming\/\" title=\"CarbonBrief\">CarbonBrief<\/a> (July 2023). They estimate 0.08 W\/m2 forcing, and a warming in 2023 of ~0.04\u00baC.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span id=\"cite_ITEM-25549-0\" name=\"citation\"><a href=\"#ITEM-25549-0\">Yuan et al. (2024)<\/a><\/span>. First chemical transport model runs with an 80% reduction of SO<sub>2<\/sub> from marine emissions. They find a radiative forcing 0.2\u00b10.11 W\/m<sup>2<\/sup> over the ocean (which translates to 0.14 W\/m<sup>2<\/sup> globally). Though see <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theclimatebrink.com\/p\/a-problematic-estimate-of-warming\" title=\"Zeke's comments\">Zeke&#8217;s comments<\/a> as well.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span id=\"cite_ITEM-25549-7\" name=\"citation\"><a href=\"#ITEM-25549-7\">Quaglia and Visioni (submitted)<\/a><\/span> CESM2 response to 90% decreases in shipping emissions (4.2 TgS\/yr) in historical\/SSP370 runs. Radiative forcing is 0.2 W\/m<sup>2<\/sup> and temperature increase in 2023 is ~0.1\u00baC.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span id=\"cite_ITEM-25549-8\" name=\"citation\"><a href=\"#ITEM-25549-8\">Skeie et al (submitted)<\/a><\/span> a multi-model estimate of the radiative forcing from the shipping emission change, of 0.06-0.09 W\/m<sup>2<\/sup>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span id=\"cite_ITEM-25549-9\" name=\"citation\"><a href=\"#ITEM-25549-9\">Yoshioka et al (submitted)<\/a><\/span> use HadGEM3-GC3.1 and find 0.13 W\/m<sup>2<\/sup> forcing, and only a 0.02\u00baC warming this decade.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><span id=\"cite_ITEM-25549-10\" name=\"citation\"><a href=\"#ITEM-25549-10\">Jordan and Henry (2024)<\/a><\/span> find a forcing of 0.14 W\/m<sup>2<\/sup><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Impacts of other aerosols<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span id=\"cite_ITEM-25549-11\" name=\"citation\"><a href=\"#ITEM-25549-11\">Wang et al. (2024)<\/a><\/span> Looked at the impact of Chinese aerosol emission decreases from 2010 to 2020 and saw increases in North Pacific ocean temperatures. Not immediately applicable to 2023, but perhaps indicative of what might come.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global mean emissions in the new CEDS data (only to 2022) compared to what was used in CMIP6. Note that the drop in shipping SO2 in 2020 is 7.4 TgS\/yr, but the difference to CMIP6 scenarios is a bit less.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"496\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/\/CEDS_global_CMIP6_v2024-600x496.png\" alt=\"Four panels showing time series of emissions of SO2, NOx, CO, and Black Carbon (BC). Two series shown - CMIP6 historical and SSP245, and the new CEDS_v2024 emissions. SO2 shows not much change (slight decrease in 2020), but big reductions NOx, CO and BC from one version to another.\" class=\"wp-image-25576 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/CEDS_global_CMIP6_v2024-600x496.png 600w, https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/CEDS_global_CMIP6_v2024-300x248.png 300w, https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/CEDS_global_CMIP6_v2024.png 1514w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 600px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 600\/496;\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">CEDS global emissions (v2024 and CMIP6 version)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><strong>Impacts of the solar cycle<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nothing published yet, but here is a graph of the observed annual solar irradiance compared to what was used in the CMIP6 models (courtesy of T. Zhou). Solar cycle 25 is both a little faster and a little more active than predicted. The difference in TSI in 2023 is around 0.55 W\/m<sup>2<\/sup> which is around 0.1 W\/m<sup>2<\/sup> in global radiative forcing above what the CMIP6 models used. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"2946\" height=\"2277\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/\/yearly_tsi-edited.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25556 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 2946px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 2946\/2277;width:665px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/yearly_tsi-edited.png 2946w, https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/yearly_tsi-edited-300x232.png 300w, https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/yearly_tsi-edited-600x464.png 600w, https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/yearly_tsi-edited-1536x1187.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/yearly_tsi-edited-2048x1583.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 2946px) 100vw, 2946px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">TSI (W\/m2). To convert to radiative forcing, divide by 4 (for geometric reasons) and multiply by 0.7 to account for the reflected component. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><strong>Impacts of ENSO variability<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span id=\"cite_ITEM-25549-12\" name=\"citation\"><a href=\"#ITEM-25549-12\">Samset et al (2024)<\/a><\/span> argue that the atmospheric response in 2023 to SST variability was not unusual.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>NEW<\/strong> <span id=\"cite_ITEM-25549-13\" name=\"citation\"><a href=\"#ITEM-25549-13\">Raghuraman et al. (2024)<\/a><\/span> argue that the jump in 2023 is not inconsistent with El Ni\u00f1o (from looking at pre-industrial control runs). (But they don&#8217;t demonstrate that the 2023 is actually predictable from this relationship). <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Other sources of Internal variability<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This could involve the NAO, Southern Annular Mode, anomalous behaviour of Saharan dust etc. but we haven&#8217;t seen much published yet. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Expressions of forced climate change<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><span id=\"cite_ITEM-25549-14\" name=\"citation\"><a href=\"#ITEM-25549-14\">Tselioudis et al. (2024)<\/a><\/span> suggest that the dynamic feedbacks effecting clouds are a big part of the signal in the albedo change, and thus a contributor to recent anomalies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"312\" height=\"265\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/\/Tselioudis_fig1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25668 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/Tselioudis_fig1.png 312w, https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/images\/Tselioudis_fig1-300x255.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 312px) 100vw, 312px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 312px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 312\/265;\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Figure 1 from Tselioudis et al (2024) showing expanding sub-tropical cells and poleward shifts in the storm tracks impacting zonal averages of clouds (and hence albedo).<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>NEW (10\/1\/2024): There is a follow-on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.researchsquare.com\/article\/rs-5050391\/v1\" title=\"preprint from Tselioudis and colleagues\">preprint from Tselioudis and colleagues<\/a> estimating that the impact of the dynamic cloud changes on the effective planetary albedo and absorbed SW radiation is about 80% of the CERES trend.  <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>We will keep this thread active as we update the lists to the papers. <\/p>\n<h2>References<\/h2>\n    <ol>\n    <li><a name='ITEM-25549-0'><\/a>\nT. Yuan, H. Song, L. Oreopoulos, R. Wood, H. Bian, K. Breen, M. Chin, H. Yu, D. Barahona, K. Meyer, and S. Platnick, \"Abrupt reduction in shipping emission as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock produces substantial radiative warming\", <i>Communications Earth &amp; Environment<\/i>, vol. 5, 2024. <a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1038\/s43247-024-01442-3\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1038\/s43247-024-01442-3<\/a>\n\n\n<\/li>\n<li><a name='ITEM-25549-1'><\/a>\nG. Schmidt, \"Climate models can\u2019t explain 2023\u2019s huge heat anomaly \u2014 we could be in uncharted territory\", <i>Nature<\/i>, vol. 627, pp. 467-467, 2024. <a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1038\/d41586-024-00816-z\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1038\/d41586-024-00816-z<\/a>\n\n\n<\/li>\n<li><a name='ITEM-25549-2'><\/a>\nM. Rantanen, and A. Laaksonen, \"The jump in global temperatures in September 2023 is extremely unlikely due to internal climate variability alone\", <i>npj Climate and Atmospheric Science<\/i>, vol. 7, 2024. <a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1038\/s41612-024-00582-9\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1038\/s41612-024-00582-9<\/a>\n\n\n<\/li>\n<li><a name='ITEM-25549-3'><\/a>\nT. Kuhlbrodt, R. Swaminathan, P. Ceppi, and T. Wilder, \"A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change\", <i>Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society<\/i>, vol. 105, pp. E474-E485, 2024. <a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1175\/BAMS-D-23-0209.1\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1175\/BAMS-D-23-0209.1<\/a>\n\n\n<\/li>\n<li><a name='ITEM-25549-4'><\/a>\nM.K. Tippett, and E.J. Becker, \"Trends, Skill, and Sources of Skill in Initialized Climate Forecasts of Global Mean Temperature\", <i>Geophysical Research Letters<\/i>, vol. 51, 2024. <a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1029\/2024GL110703\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1029\/2024GL110703<\/a>\n\n\n<\/li>\n<li><a name='ITEM-25549-5'><\/a>\nM.R. Schoeberl, Y. Wang, G. Taha, D.J. Zawada, R. Ueyama, and A. Dessler, \"Evolution of the Climate Forcing During the Two Years After the Hunga Tonga\u2010Hunga Ha'apai Eruption\", <i>Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres<\/i>, vol. 129, 2024. <a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1029\/2024JD041296\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1029\/2024JD041296<\/a>\n\n\n<\/li>\n<li><a name='ITEM-25549-6'><\/a>\nP. Sellitto, R. Siddans, R. Belhadji, E. Carboni, B. Legras, A. Podglajen, C. Duchamp, and B. Kerridge, \"Observing the SO2 and Sulphate Aerosol Plumes from the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Eruption with IASI\", 2023. <a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.22541\/essoar.169091894.48592907\/v1\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.22541\/essoar.169091894.48592907\/v1<\/a>\n\n\n<\/li>\n<li><a name='ITEM-25549-7'><\/a>\nI. Quaglia, and D. Visioni, \"Modeling 2020 regulatory changes in international shipping emissions helps explain 2023 anomalous warming\", 2024. <a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.5194\/egusphere-2024-1417\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.5194\/egusphere-2024-1417<\/a>\n\n\n<\/li>\n<li><a name='ITEM-25549-8'><\/a>\nR.B. Skeie, R. Byrom, ?. Hodnebrog, C. Jouan, and G. Myhre, \"Multi-model effective radiative forcing of the 2020 sulphur cap for shipping\", 2024. <a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.5194\/egusphere-2024-1394\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.5194\/egusphere-2024-1394<\/a>\n\n\n<\/li>\n<li><a name='ITEM-25549-9'><\/a>\nM. Yoshioka, D.P. Grosvenor, B.B.B. Booth, C.P. Morice, and K.S. Carslaw, \"Warming effects of reduced sulfur emissions from shipping\", 2024. <a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.5194\/egusphere-2024-1428\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.5194\/egusphere-2024-1428<\/a>\n\n\n<\/li>\n<li><a name='ITEM-25549-10'><\/a>\nG. Jordan, and M. Henry, \"IMO2020 Regulations Accelerate Global Warming by up to 3\u00a0Years in UKESM1\", <i>Earth's Future<\/i>, vol. 12, 2024. <a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1029\/2024EF005011\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1029\/2024EF005011<\/a>\n\n\n<\/li>\n<li><a name='ITEM-25549-11'><\/a>\nH. Wang, X. Zheng, W. Cai, Z. Han, S. Xie, S.M. Kang, Y. Geng, F. Liu, C. Wang, Y. Wu, B. Xiang, and L. Zhou, \"Atmosphere teleconnections from abatement of China aerosol emissions exacerbate Northeast Pacific warm blob events\", <i>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences<\/i>, vol. 121, 2024. <a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.2313797121\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.2313797121<\/a>\n\n\n<\/li>\n<li><a name='ITEM-25549-12'><\/a>\nB.H. Samset, M.T. Lund, J.S. Fuglestvedt, and L.J. Wilcox, \"2023 temperatures reflect steady global warming and internal sea surface temperature variability\", <i>Communications Earth &amp; Environment<\/i>, vol. 5, 2024. <a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1038\/s43247-024-01637-8\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1038\/s43247-024-01637-8<\/a>\n\n\n<\/li>\n<li><a name='ITEM-25549-13'><\/a>\nS.P. Raghuraman, B. Soden, A. Clement, G. Vecchi, S. Menemenlis, and W. Yang, \"The 2023 global warming spike was driven by  the El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation\", <i>Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics<\/i>, vol. 24, pp. 11275-11283, 2024. <a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.5194\/acp-24-11275-2024\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.5194\/acp-24-11275-2024<\/a>\n\n\n<\/li>\n<li><a name='ITEM-25549-14'><\/a>\nG. Tselioudis, W.B. Rossow, F. Bender, L. Oreopoulos, and J. Remillard, \"Oceanic cloud trends during the satellite era and their radiative signatures\", <i>Climate Dynamics<\/i>, vol. 62, pp. 9319-9332, 2024. <a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1007\/s00382-024-07396-8\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1007\/s00382-024-07396-8<\/a>\n\n\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n<\/div> <!-- kcite-section 25549 -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[Last update Dec 6, 2024] There were a number of media reports today [May 11, 2024] related to , for instance, New Scientist, The Guardian etc. However, this is really just the beginning of what is likely to be a bit of a cottage industry in the next few months relating to possible causes\/influences on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":25722,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17,5,1,27,75,9,19,4],"tags":[142,143],"class_list":{"0":"post-25549","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-aerosols","8":"category-climate-modelling","9":"category-climate-science","10":"category-el-nino","11":"category-featured-story","12":"category-instrumental-record","13":"category-oceans","14":"category-sun-earth-connections","15":"tag-142","16":"tag-marine-shipping","17":"entry"},"aioseo_notices":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25549","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25549"}],"version-history":[{"count":39,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25549\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25766,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25549\/revisions\/25766"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25722"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25549"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25549"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25549"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}