{"id":299,"date":"2006-05-10T15:21:04","date_gmt":"2006-05-10T19:21:04","guid":{"rendered":"\/?p=299"},"modified":"2008-09-20T18:03:30","modified_gmt":"2008-09-20T23:03:30","slug":"al-gores-movie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/archives\/2006\/05\/al-gores-movie\/","title":{"rendered":"Al Gore’s movie Le film de Al Gore<\/lang_fr>"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

by Eric Steig<\/small><\/p>\n

Along with various Seattle business and community leaders, city planners and politicians, a large group of scientists from the University of Washington got a chance to preview the new film, An Inconvenient Truth<\/i>, last week. The film is about Al Gore’s efforts to educate the public about global warming, with the goal of creating the political will necessary for the United States to take the lead in efforts to lower global carbon emissions. It is an inspiring film, and is decidedly non-partisan in its outlook (though there are a few subtle references to the Bush administration’s lack of leadership on this and other environmental issues).<\/p>\n

Since Gore is rumored to be a fan of RealClimate, we thought it appropriate to give our first impressions.
\npar Eric Steig (traduit de l’anglais par V\u00e9ronique Pag\u00e9)<\/small><\/lang_fr>
\n<\/p>\n

Much of the footage in Inconvenient Truth<\/i> is of Al Gore giving a slideshow on the science of global warming. Sound boring? Well, yes, a little. But it is a very good slide show, in the vein of Carl Sagan (lots of beautiful imagery, and some very slick graphics and digital animation). And it is interspersed with personal reflections from Gore that add a very nice human element. Gore in the classroom in 1968, listening to the great geochemist Roger Revelle describe the first few years of data on carbon dioxide increases in the atmosphere. Gore on the family farm, talking about his father’s tobacco business, and how he shut it down when his daughter (Al Gore’s sister) got lung cancer. Gore on the campaign trail, and his disappointment at the Supreme Court decision. This isn’t the “wooden” Gore of the 2000 campgain; he is clearly in his element here, talking about something he has cared deeply about for over 30 years.<\/p>\n

How well does the film handle the science? Admirably, I thought. It is remarkably up to date, with reference to some of the very latest research. Discussion of recent changes in Antarctica and Greenland are expertly laid out. He also does a very good job in talking about the relationship between sea surface temperature and hurricane intensity. As one might expect, he uses the Katrina disaster to underscore the point that climate change may have serious impacts on society, but he doesn’t highlight the connection any more than is appropriate (see our post on this, here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

There are a few scientific errors that are important in the film. At one point Gore claims that you can see the aerosol concentrations in Antarctic ice cores change “in just two years”, due to the U.S. Clean Air Act. You can’t see dust and aerosols at all in Antarctic cores — not with the naked eye — and I’m skeptical you can definitively point to the influence of the Clean Air Act. I was left wondering whether Gore got this notion, and I hope he’ll correct it in future versions of his slideshow. Another complaint is the juxtaposition of an image relating to CO2<\/sub> emissions and an image illustrating invasive plant species. This is misleading; the problem of invasive species is predominantly due to land use change and importation, not to “global warming”. Still, these are rather minor errors. It is true that the effect of reduced leaded gasoline use in the U.S. does clearly show up in Greenland ice cores; and it is also certainly true that climate change could exacerbate the problem of invasive species.<\/p>\n

Several of my colleagues complained that a more significant error is Gore’s use of the long ice core records of CO2<\/sub> and temperature (from oxygen isotope measurements) in Antarctic ice cores to illustrate the correlation between the two. The complaint is that the correlation is somewhat misleading, because a number of other climate forcings besides CO2<\/sub> contribute to the change in Antarctic temperature between glacial and interglacial climate. Simply extrapolating this correlation forward in time puts the temperature in 2100 A.D. somewhere upwards of 10 C warmer than present — rather at the extreme end of the vast majority of projections (as we have discussed here<\/a>). However, I don’t really agree with my colleagues’ criticism on this point. Gore is careful not to state what the temperature\/CO2<\/sub> scaling is. He is making a qualitative point, which is entirely accurate. The fact is that it would be difficult or impossible to explain past changes in temperature during the ice age cycles without CO2<\/sub> changes (as we have discussed here<\/a>). In that sense, the ice core CO2<\/sub>-temperature correlation<\/a> remains an appropriate demonstration of the influence of CO2<\/sub> on climate.<\/p>\n

For the most part, I think Gore gets the science right, just as he did in Earth in the Balance<\/i>. The small errors don’t detract from Gore’s main point, which is that we in the United States have the technological and institutional ability to have a significant impact on the future trajectory of climate change. This is not entirely a scientific issue — indeed, Gore repeatedly makes the point that it is a moral issue — but Gore draws heavily on Pacala and Socolow’s recent work to show that the technology is there (see Science 305, p. 968 Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies).<\/p>\n

I’ll admit that I have been a bit of a skeptic about our ability to take any substantive action, especially here in the U.S.
\nGore’s aim is to change that viewpoint, and the colleagues I saw the movie with all seem to agree that he is successful.<\/p>\n

In short: this film is worth seeing. It opens in early June.<\/p>\n


\nLa semaine derni\u00e8re, un groupe de scientifique de l’Universit\u00e9 de Washington s’est joint \u00e0 des gens d’affaires, des leaders communautaires, des repr\u00e9sentants municipaux et des politiciens pour assister \u00e0 une avant-premi\u00e8re du nouveau film ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ (Une v\u00e9rit\u00e9 qui d\u00e9range). Le film montre les efforts entrepris par Al Gore pour renseigner le public \u00e0 propos du r\u00e9chauffement climatique; l’entreprise vise \u00e0 cr\u00e9er aux \u00c9tats-Unis un mouvement politique capable de transformer le pays en un leader de la lutte aux \u00e9missions internationales de carbone. Cela nous donne un film enthousiasmant et non-partisan (si l’on omet quelques r\u00e9f\u00e9rences subtiles au manque de leadership de l’administration Bush quant \u00e0 la lutte aux \u00e9missions de carbone et \u00e0 d’autres questions environnementales).<\/p>\n

La rumeur circule qu’Al Gore est un fan de RealClimate – aussi nous avons cr\u00fb qu’il serait bon de vous donner nos impressions.<\/p>\n

Une grande partie du film nous montre Al Gore donnant une pr\u00e9sentation multim\u00e9dia \u00e0 propos des bases scientifiques du r\u00e9chauffement climatique. Ennuyant? Un peu, quand m\u00eame. La pr\u00e9sentation est excellente, par contre, \u00e0 l’image de celles de Carl Sagan – images superbes, infographie de pointe, animations digitales. Elle alterne avec les r\u00e9flexions et pens\u00e9es de Gore, ce qui ajoute \u00e0 l’ensemble une dimension humaine int\u00e9ressante. Gore \u00e0 l’\u00e9cole, en 1968, \u00e9coute le grand g\u00e9ochimiste Roger Revelle relater les d\u00e9buts de la prise de donn\u00e9es reli\u00e9es \u00e0 l’augmentation du dioxyde de carbone dans l’atmosph\u00e8re. Gore \u00e0 la ferme familiale raconte comment, suite au cancer du poumon de sa fille, son p\u00e8re a choisi de fermer son entreprise de tabac. Gore en campagne \u00e9lectorale, puis d\u00e9\u00e7u suite \u00e0 la d\u00e9cision de la Cour Supr\u00eame. On voit un Gore tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rent de celui, ‘rigide’, de la campagne de 2000: de toute \u00e9vidence, \u00e0 discuter d’un sujet qui lui tient \u00e0 coeur depuis plus de 30 ans, il est ici dans son \u00e9l\u00e9ment.<\/p>\n

Comment le film traite-t-il la science? De fa\u00e7on admirable, \u00e0 mon avis. Le film est \u00e9tonnamment \u00e0 jour et r\u00e9f\u00e8re \u00e0 de tous nouveaux r\u00e9sultats. Des changements r\u00e9cents en Antarctique et au Groenland sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s avec une grande expertise. Gore s’en tire aussi tr\u00e8s bien quand il explique ce qui lie la temp\u00e9rature de surface des mers \u00e0 l’intensit\u00e9 des ouragans. Comme on pouvait s’y attendre, il utilise l’ouragan Katrina pour illustrer les r\u00e9percussions sociales majeures que les changements climatiques pourraient avoir, mais il n’\u00e9tire pas la sauce (\u00e0 ce sujet, voir notre post ici).<\/p>\n

Il n’y a que peu d’erreurs scientifiques d’importance dans le film. Gore pr\u00e9tend qu’il est possible de voir une modification des concentrations d’a\u00e9rosols pr\u00e9sentes dans les carottes de glace obtenues en Antarctique sur un d\u00e9lai ‘d’\u00e0 peine 2 ans’, ce qui serait un effet du U.S. Clean Air Act. Il n’est pas possible de voir de la poussi\u00e8re ou des a\u00e9rosols dans les carottes prises en Antarctique, du moins certainement \u00e0 l’oeil nu, et il m’appara\u00eet peu probable qu’un lien direct avec le Clean Air Act puisse \u00eatre \u00e9tabli. Je ne suis pas certain que Gore ait compris cet aspect de la question, et j’esp\u00e8re qu’il corrigera cette partie de la pr\u00e9sentation. Un autre probl\u00e8me appara\u00eet lorsqu’une image reli\u00e9e aux \u00e9missions de CO2<\/sub> est juxtapos\u00e9e \u00e0 une illustration d’esp\u00e8ces invasives de plantes. Cela porte \u00e0 confusion, puisqu’en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 le probl\u00e8me des plantes invasives est d\u00fb principalement \u00e0 l’importation et \u00e0 un changement dans l’utilisation des terres, et pas au ‘r\u00e9chauffement climatique’. Mais ce sont l\u00e0 des erreurs mineures. Apr\u00e8s tout, on observe vraiment l’effet de la diminution de l’utilisation du gas au plomb aux \u00c9tats-Unis dans les carottes de glace du Groenland; il est vrai aussi que le r\u00e9chauffement climatique pourrait exacerber le probl\u00e8me des esp\u00e8ces invasives.<\/p>\n

Certains de mes coll\u00e8gues reprochent au film de contenir une erreur plus importante, soit la fa\u00e7on avec laquelle Gore utilise les historiques des niveaux de CO2<\/sub> et de la temp\u00e9rature (obtenue \u00e0 partir de mesures d’isotopes d’oxyg\u00e8ne) tel qu’obtenus dans les carottes de glace de l’Antarctique pour illustrer une corr\u00e9lation entre ces deux quantit\u00e9s. Ils remarquent que cela peut porter \u00e0 confusion, puisque plusieurs autres facteurs de for\u00e7age, en plus du CO2<\/sub>, contribuent aux changements de temp\u00e9rature en Antarctique entre les p\u00e9riodes glaciaires et inter-glaciaires. En extrapolant simplement dans le temps la corr\u00e9lation pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e, on obtient en 2100 une temp\u00e9rature de 10\u00baC sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la temp\u00e9rature actuelle, ce qui est plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 que la grande majorit\u00e9 des projections actuelles (voir notre discussion ici<\/a>). Je ne suis pas d’accord avec la critique de mes coll\u00e8gues. Sans changement des niveaux de CO2<\/sub>, il est tr\u00e8s difficile, voire impossible, d’expliquer l’\u00e9volution pass\u00e9e des temp\u00e9ratures au cours des cycles de p\u00e9riodes glaciaires (tel que discut\u00e9 ici<\/a>) et donc en ce sens la corr\u00e9lation CO2<\/sub>-temp\u00e9rature dans les carottes de glace<\/a> d\u00e9montre de fa\u00e7on appropri\u00e9e l’influence du CO2<\/sub> sur le climat. <\/p>\n

En g\u00e9n\u00e9ral les questions scientifiques abord\u00e9es dans le film de Gore sont trait\u00e9es de fa\u00e7on appropri\u00e9e, comme c’\u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0 le cas dans Earth in the Balance (Urgence Plan\u00e8te Terre). Il y a quelques erreurs mineures, mais cela ne diminue en rien le message central du film, qui est que du point de vue technologique et institutionnel, nous, les Am\u00e9ricains, avons la capacit\u00e9 de s\u00e9rieusement influencer le cours des changements climatiques. C’est une question qui d\u00e9passe la science (d’ailleurs Gore r\u00e9p\u00e8te qu’il s’agit d’une question morale), mais Gore nous pr\u00e9sente les travaux r\u00e9cents de Pacala et Socolow pour nous rappeler que la technologie n\u00e9cessaire existe d\u00e9j\u00e0 (consulter Science 305, p. 968 Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies).<\/p>\n

J’avoue \u00eatre un peu sceptique quant \u00e0 notre capacit\u00e9 de poser des gestes d’importance, particuli\u00e8rement ici aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Le but de Gore est justement de confronter les sceptiques, et les coll\u00e8gues avec qui j’ai regard\u00e9 le film semblent s’entendre pour dire que Gore atteint son but. <\/p>\n

En bref: un film qui m\u00e9rite d’\u00eatre vu. En salle d\u00e9but juin.<\/p>\n

<\/lang_fr><\/p>\n\n<\/div> ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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