{"id":414,"date":"2007-03-09T17:36:36","date_gmt":"2007-03-09T22:36:36","guid":{"rendered":"\/?p=414"},"modified":"2007-07-02T11:06:55","modified_gmt":"2007-07-02T16:06:55","slug":"swindled","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/archives\/2007\/03\/swindled\/","title":{"rendered":"Swindled! Aldat\u0131ld\u0131k!<\/lang_tk>"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

By William and Gavin<\/small><\/p>\n

On Thursday March 8th, the UK TV Channel 4 aired a programme titled “The Great Global Warming Swindle”. We were hoping for important revelations and final proof that we have all been hornswoggled by the climate Illuminati, but it just repeated the usual specious claims we hear all the time. We feel swindled. Indeed we are not the only ones: Carl Wunsch (who was a surprise addition to the cast) was apparently misled<\/a> into thinking this was going to be a balanced look at the issues (the producers have a history of doing this<\/a>), but who found himself put into a very different context indeed [Update: a full letter from Wunsch appears as comment 109 on this post]<\/p>\n

So what did they have to say for themselves?
\n<\/p>\n

CO2<\/sub> doesn’t match the temperature record over the 20th C<\/strong>. True but not relevant, because it isn’t supposed to. The programme spent a long time agonising over what they presented as a sharp temperature fall for 4 decades from 1940 to 1980 (incidentally their graph<\/a> looks rather odd and may have been carefully selected; on a more usual (and sourced!) plot<\/a> the “4 decades of cooling” is rather less evident). They presented this as a major flaw in the theory, which is deeply deceptive, because as they and their interviewees must know, the 40-70 cooling type period is readily explained, in that the GCMs are quite happy to reproduce it, as largely caused by sulphate aerosols. See this<\/a> for a wiki-pic, for example; or (all together now) the IPCC TAR SPM fig 4<\/a>; or more up-to-date AR4 fig 4<\/a>. So… they are lying to us by omission.<\/p>\n

The troposphere should warm faster than the sfc<\/strong>, say the models and basic theory. As indeed it does<\/a> – unless you’re wedded to the multiply-corrected Spencer+Christy version of the MSU series. Christy (naturally enough) features in this section, though he seems to have forgotten the US CCSP report, and the executive summary which he authored<\/a> says Previously reported discrepancies between the amount of warming near the surface and higher in the atmosphere have been used to challenge the reliability of climate models and the reality of human induced global warming. Specifically, surface data showed substantial global-average warming, while early versions of satellite and radiosonde data showed little or no warming above the surface. This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the satellite and radiosonde data have been identified and corrected. New data sets have also been developed that do not show such discrepancies.<\/i> See-also previous RC<\/a> posts<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Temperature leads CO2<\/sub> by 800 years in the ice cores<\/strong>. Not quite as true as they said, but basically correct; however they misinterpret it. The way they said this you would have thought that T and CO2<\/sub> are anti-correlated; but if you overlay the full 400\/800 kyr of ice core record, you can’t even see the lag because its so small. The correct interpretation of this is well known: that there is a T-CO2<\/sub> feedback: see RC again<\/a> for more.<\/p>\n

All the previous parts of the programme were leading up to “so if it isn’t CO2<\/sub>, what is it?” to which their answer is “solar”. The section was curiously weak, and largely lead by pictures of people on beaches. It was somewhat surprising that they didn’t feature Svensmark<\/a> at all; other stuff we’ve commented on before<\/a>. Note that the graph<\/a> they used as “proof” of the excellent solar-T connection turns out to have some problems: see figure 1c of Damon and Laut<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Along the way the programme ticked off most of the other obligatory skeptic talking points: even down to Medieval English vineyards<\/a> and that old favourite, volcanoes emitting more CO2<\/sub> than humans<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It ended with politics, with a segment blaming the lack of African development on the environmental movement. We don’t want to get into the politics, but should point out what the programme didn’t: that Kyoto exempts developing nations.<\/p>\n

[Also: other discussion at InTheGreen<\/a>, Stoat<\/a>, The Guardian<\/a> and
\n Media lens<\/a>.]
\n[Update: What Martin Durkin really thinks!]<\/a>
\n[Update for our german readers: A german version of the “swindle” film was shown on June 11 on German TV (RTL); here is a german commentary by stefan<\/a>.]<\/p>\n


\nWilliam ve Gavin taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rland\u0131. Ingilizce\u2019den \u00e7eviren Figen Mekik.<\/small><\/p>\n

8 Mart Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc, Ingiliz televizyonunun 4. Kanal\u0131 \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck K\u00fcresel Is\u0131nma Aladat\u0131lmas\u0131\u201d ad\u0131nda bir program yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Biz de, \u00f6nemli a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ve iklim bilimleriyle ilgili ahkam kesenler taraf\u0131ndan aldat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131za dair sonunda ispat sunulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zannederken, \u00e7ok \u015fa\u015f\u0131rd\u0131k. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc program bizim de her zaman duydu\u011fumuz, ola\u011fan ve yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceleri sadece tekrarlad\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla biz aldat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u0131z me\u011ferse. Hatta sadece biz de\u011filiz aldat\u0131lan. Carl Wunsch (ki program\u2019a son dakikada dahil edildi) yanl\u0131\u015f bilgi verilerek<\/a> programa davet edilmi\u015f. Ona dengeli bir sunum olaca\u011f\u0131na dair taah\u00fctlerde bulunulmu\u015f (ki program\u0131n yap\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha \u00f6nce de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131< <\/a> bir \u015fey bu), ama kendisi programa gelince, kendini \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda bulmu\u015f.<\/p>\n

Peki, kendilerini nas\u0131l savundular?<\/p>\n

Yirminci y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n \u0131s\u0131 rekoruna uymuyor CO2<\/sub><\/b>. Do\u011fru ama alakas\u0131 yok \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc zaten b\u00f6yle bir uyum aranm\u0131yor. Program sanc\u0131l\u0131 bir \u015fekilde 1940 ve 1980 aras\u0131ndaki 4 ony\u0131l boyunca \u0131s\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131 (ancak g\u00f6sterdikleri \u015fekil<\/a> biraz tuhaf ve sanki \u00f6zellikle se\u00e7ilmi\u015f gibi; daha herkes\u00e7e bilinen (ve kayna\u011f\u0131 belli olan) grafik\u2019te<\/a> bu 4 ony\u0131ll\u0131k so\u011fuma daha az belirgin). Bunu, kuramda \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hata veya eksiklik olarak nitelediler, ve bu \u00e7ok aldat\u0131c\u0131 bir tutum oldu \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc hem kendilerinin hem de r\u00f6portaj yapt\u0131klar\u0131 ki\u015filerin de bilmesi gerekti\u011fi gibi, 1940-1970 aras\u0131ndaki so\u011fuman\u0131n kolay bir a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 var zaten. Genel Dola\u015f\u0131m Modeli (ingilizcesi General Circulation Model) ad\u0131 verilen bilgisayar modellerinin \u00e7ok g\u00fczel ortaya koydu\u011fu gibi bu so\u011fuman\u0131n sebebi o y\u0131llarda havadaki s\u00fclfat aerosollerinin (par\u00e7ac\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n) art\u0131\u015f\u0131d\u0131r. \u015eurada<\/a> bu konuyla ilgili bir \u015fekil var mesel\u00e2; veya, hadi hep birlikte s\u00f6yleyelim, Uluslararas\u0131 Iklim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi G\u00f6revg\u00fcc\u00fc (UIDG) \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc de\u011ferlendirme raporundaki d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u015fekil<\/a>, veya daha g\u00fcncel olsun, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc raporun politika belirleyiciler i\u00e7in \u00f6zetindeki d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u015fekil<\/a>. Yani.. bize eksik bilgi vererek yalan s\u00f6ylemi\u015f oluyorlar.<\/p>\n

Troposfer, stratosferden daha \u00e7abuk \u0131s\u0131nmal\u0131,<\/b> diyor pek \u00e7ok model ve temel kuram\u0131m\u0131z. Ve b\u00f6yle de oluyor<\/a> zaten \u2013 ama \u00e7ok kez d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f Spencer ve Christy\u2019nin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na kendinizi ba\u011fl\u0131 hissetmiyorsaniz tabii. Christy tabii ki burada da \u00f6nde geliyor ama sanki kendisinin de yazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131<\/a> yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Amerikan Iklim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi Bilim Program\u0131n\u0131 ve onun y\u00fcr\u00fctme \u00f6zetini unutmu\u015f gibi \u015f\u00f6yle diyor:Daha \u00f6nce de rapor edilen, atmosferin al\u00e7ak ve y\u00fcksek tabakalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki \u0131s\u0131 fark\u0131 iklim modellerinin ve insanlar taraf\u0131ndan olu\u015fan k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n do\u011frulu\u011funu sorguluyor. \u00d6zellikle, y\u00fczey bilgileri k\u00fcresel ortalama \u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ciddi bir \u015fekilde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; ancak uydu ve radyosondalardan ilkin al\u0131nan bigiler y\u00fczeyin \u00fczerinde ya \u00e7ok az bir \u0131s\u0131nma oldu\u011funu ya da hi\u00e7 \u0131s\u0131nma olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdiler. Bu \u00f6nemli \u00e7eli\u015fki artik yok oldu \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc uydu ve radyosonda bilgilerindeki hatalar belirlendi ve d\u00fczeltildi. Yeni \u00fcretilen veri tabanlar\u0131nda da bu \u00e7e\u015fit \u00e7eli\u015fkiler yok. <\/em>Bizim daha \u00f6nce yazd\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 da buradan<\/a> okuyabilirsiniz. <\/p>\n

Buzul karotlar\u0131nda \u0131s\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimleri CO2<\/sub>\u2019in 800 y\u0131l \u00f6n\u00fcnde seyrediyor<\/b>. Bu pek onlar\u0131n s\u00f6yledi\u011fi kadar do\u011fru de\u011fil, ama yanl\u0131\u015f yorumlamalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen genel olarak do\u011fru. \u00d6yle bir anlatt\u0131lar ki, zannedersiniz \u0131s\u0131 ve CO2<\/sub> aras\u0131nda bir ters ili\u015fki var. Ama son 400\/800 biny\u0131ll\u0131k buzul karot rekorunu a\u00e7\u0131nca, bu \u00f6nde seyir o kadar k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck kal\u0131yor ki g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor bile. Bunun do\u011fru yorumu zaten biliniyor: \u0131s\u0131-CO2<\/sub> geribeslemesi diye bir \u015fey var, yine bizim \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131za<\/a> bakabilirsiniz.<\/p>\n

Program\u0131n giri\u015fi ve ilk k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131 \u201cpeki CO2<\/sub> de\u011filse nedir?\u201d do\u011frultusna y\u00f6neldi tabii. Buna da cevap diye \u201cg\u00fcne\u015f \u0131\u015f\u0131mas\u0131\u201d dediler. Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcm \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede zay\u0131ft\u0131 ve plajlarda yatan insan resimleriyle doluydu. Hi\u00e7 Svensmark\u2019dan<\/a> bahsetmemeleri \u00f6zellikle garipti; daha \u00f6nce de bahsetti\u011fimiz ba\u015fka konular<\/a> gibi. Is\u0131nma ve g\u00fcne\u015f \u0131\u015f\u0131mas\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u201cispat\u201d eden grafiklei<\/a> me\u011ferse sorunluymu\u015f. Damon ve Laut\u2019un<\/a> 1c numaral\u0131 \u015fekline bak\u0131n.<\/p>\n

Program ilerledik\u00e7e ku\u015fkucu kesimin ola\u011fan \u015fikayetlerini teker teker ele ald\u0131: hatt\u00e2 orta\u00e7a\u011fdaki Ingiliz \u00fcz\u00fcm ba\u011flar\u0131ndan<\/a> tutun da volkanlar\u0131n insanlardan \u00e7ok CO2<\/sub> \u00fcretti\u011fi<\/a> iddias\u0131na kadar. <\/p>\n

Ve program politika ile sonu\u00e7land\u0131, hatt\u00e2 Afrika\u2019daki geri kalm\u0131\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n sorumlulu\u011funu da \u00e7evrecilerin \u00fczerine atarak. Biz politikaya kar\u0131\u015fmak istemiyoruz, ama program\u0131n vurgulamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u015feyi biz vurgulayal\u0131m: Kyoto geli\u015fmekte olan devletleri muaf tutar.
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By William and Gavin On Thursday March 8th, the UK TV Channel 4 aired a programme titled “The Great Global Warming Swindle”. We were hoping for important revelations and final proof that we have all been hornswoggled by the climate Illuminati, but it just repeated the usual specious claims we hear all the time. We […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1,11,2,24,28,4],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-414","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-climate-science","7":"category-extras","8":"category-paleoclimate","9":"category-reporting-on-climate","10":"category-reviews","11":"category-sun-earth-connections","12":"entry"},"aioseo_notices":[],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/414","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=414"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/414\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=414"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=414"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realclimate.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=414"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}