RealClimate logo


Unforced variations: Sep 2016

Filed under: — group @ 1 September 2016

To come this month: Arctic sea ice minimum, decisions from the IPCC scoping meeting on a report focused on the 1.5ºC target, interesting paleo-climate science at #ICP12 and a chance to stop arguing about politics perhaps.

Usual rules apply.

292 Responses to “Unforced variations: Sep 2016”

  1. 1
    MA Rodger says:

    UAH has posted the August global temperature anomaly for its TLTv6.0(beta5) at +0.44ºC, the second warmest August (after 1998) and the 20th warmest of all monthly anomalies. It represents a small rise on July’s anomaly. The year-to-date average stands at +0.567ºC, To achieve the ‘warmest calendar year on record’ (which remains 1998 at +0.484ºC) the remainder of 2016 would have to average in excess of +0.32ºC.
    The table here allows comparison with the 1997-99 El Nino years. That El Nino was quickly followed by La Nina conditions. While the 2015-16 El Nino ended pretty-much in sinc with 1997-98 El Nino, the La Nina conditions are not appearing, the SOI 30-day average bumbling along at high neutral values. The 1998 values were up in the mid-teens hitting +14, yet so far in 2016 it hasn’t yet managed to top +5.
    ……….1997/99 … 2015/16
    Dec … +0.250ºC … +0.450ºC
    Jan … +0.479ºC … +0.540ºC
    Feb … +0.653ºC … +0.832ºC
    Mar … +0.475ºC … +0.734ºC
    Apr … +0.743ºC … +0.715ºC
    May … +0.643ºC … +0.545ºC
    Jun .… +0.575ºC … +0.339ºC
    Jul … +0.511ºC . … +0.39ºC
    Aug … +0.516ºC …. +0.44ºC
    Sep … +0.441ºC
    Oct … +0.403ºC
    Nov … +0.123ºC
    Dec … +0.246ºC
    Jan … +0.060ºC
    Feb … +0.166ºC
    Mar … -0.081ºC
    Apr … +0.009ºC
    May … -0.037ºC
    Jun … -0.154ºC

  2. 2
    Thomas says:

    370 Dan says: “362. And don’t forget the “chemtrails”! ;-)”

    Maybe you could explain what chemtrails / other lunacies or the childish dribble by Levenson eg here http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/08/unforced-variations-aug-2016/comment-page-8/#comment-659739 has to do with me or anything I have said or ref’ed?

    Is it Humour? If it is then ha ha ha – how witty! Yet it also shows how perceptively accurate I am about the entrenched and underlying causative psychological issues.

  3. 3
    Thomas says:

    According to a well-known expression, Rome’s emperor at the time, the decadent and unpopular Nero, “fiddled while Rome burned.”

    The expression has a double meaning: Not only did Nero play music while his people suffered, but he was an ineffectual leader in a time of crisis.

  4. 4
    Chris Dudley says:

    I am no longer taking bets on August being warmer than July this year and thus setting a new record. We shall see.

  5. 5
    Thomas says:

    re: “about politics perhaps.”

    If there is anyone in RCland who can convince me as to how one can logically and rationally disconnect the embedded inbred links between Climate Science and Politics anywhere, including here, then I am all ears.

    Remembering that both the UNFCCC and the IPCC are essentially political creations, and where Govt’s of the day get to change the wording of Scientists in the IPCC Reports/SPMs whose ‘new-speak words’ are then reported via the media.

    Latest News:
    Climate Change Authority cops out – just when we need it most
    By Christine Milne on 1 September 2016 (retired ex-Greens Party Leader)

    Following his gutting of CSIRO and ARENA, Malcolm Turnbull has ransacked the Climate Change Authority. Once an institution at the heart of politics charged with prioritising science and depoliticising climate policy, it has been turned into an instrument which ducks its mandate, suppresses climate science and is politically partisan. Its latest report is a cop out.

    It is a sad end. I am personally deeply distressed to see the era of credible science based advice from the Climate Change Authority come to an end and with it the respect that it had garnered from the wider community.
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/climate-change-authority-cops-just-need-13716

    The Review is here:
    http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/reviews/special-review/towards-climate-policy-toolkit-special-review-australias-climate-goals-and

    Prior Reviews before the current re-elected Govt’s political/ideological motivated personnel changes and other gutting of the other ‘climate science/action’ bodies.
    http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/reviews

    You compare and then decide if the ex-Greens leader is being ‘political’ or simply ‘sane’ and ‘logical’ while operating from an evidence-based paradigm.

    A few may recall my previous comments about the gutting of the CSIRO by this very same Govt. When will Climate Scientists form a legitimate global CS Workers Union just as Doctors have their Medical Associations that fights insane irrational Govt interference in Health?

    That Politics can ever be separated from climate science today is just another Myth some people like to believe. Basically such a belief eases the uncomfortable Cognitive Dissonance being felt by some, not all.

  6. 6
    Thomas says:

    News about the News
    A Media Matters STUDY: (Orwellian) Newspaper Opinion Pages Feature Science Denial And Other Climate Change Misinformation (aka NewSpeak)

    We found that the WSJournal, the Post, and USA Today all published climate science misinformation on their opinion pages, while the Times avoided doing so.

    Unlike the WS Journal editorial board, which has denied climate science, the editorial boards of the Times, the Post, and USA Today all recognize the scientific consensus around man-made climate change.

    But our analysis found that the NYTimes was the only one of these newspapers that did not publish an op-ed or column containing climate science denial during this time period.
    http://mediamatters.org/research/2016/09/01/study-newspaper-opinion-pages-feature-science-denial-and-other-climate-change-misinformation/212700

    Truth in Advertising Legislation?

    WSJ = Rupert Murdoch (an American not an Australian as sensible Aussies disowned him decades ago when he disowned his Australian citizenship for US Citizenship)
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2015/06/11/what-rupert-murdoch-owns/71089066/
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wall_Street_Journal

    Congressional Climate Science Witch Hunt to Start Hearings Sept.14 – Legal actions pending
    http://www.triplepundit.com/2016/09/congressional-climate-science-witch-hunt-start-hearings/

  7. 7
    Chuck Hughes says:

    Is it Humour? If it is then ha ha ha – how witty! Yet it also shows how perceptively accurate I am about the entrenched and underlying causative psychological issues.

    Comment by Thomas — 1 Sep 2016 @

    You are to Jill Stein’s campaign what Steve Bannon is to Donald Trump’s, and you are about as clever as Donald Trump with twitter and a cellphone after a few drinks.

    How’s about you give it a rest and discuss Climate Change for a while. Politics and insults don’t seem to be your forte. Thanks

  8. 8

    Begun a new video series

    Documentary: Climate Change Manifestations #Issue1
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZiL0MYCsDI

  9. 9
    Russell says:

    The antropocene controversy has spilled out of the geophysics journals and into the realm of postmodern critical theory

  10. 10

    Merchants of Doubt documentary, in case you didn’t watched it yet.
    http://climatestate.com/2016/08/30/stunning-film-exposes-climate-sceptics-merchantsofdoubt/

    Related

    Australian Senator Malcolm Roberts claims that there is a pause in global warming (featuring Steven Goddard, aka the blogger Tony Heller from the Who is Who denial network)
    http://climatestate.com/2016/08/30/australian-senator-malcolm-roberts-claims-that-there-is-a-pause-in-global-warming/

  11. 11

    Th: Maybe you could explain what chemtrails / other lunacies or the childish dribble by Levenson… has to do with me or anything I have said or ref’ed?

    BPL: Firesign Theater reference. Subtle implication that some of your views verge on fringe positions we’ve seen before in this forum.

    Th: Is it Humour? If it is then ha ha ha – how witty! Yet it also shows how perceptively accurate I am about the entrenched and underlying causative psychological issues.

    BPL: You’re a legend in your own mind.

    Th: According to a well-known expression, Rome’s emperor at the time, the decadent and unpopular Nero, “fiddled while Rome burned.”
    The expression has a double meaning: Not only did Nero play music while his people suffered, but he was an ineffectual leader in a time of crisis.

    BPL: Except, of course, that the fire started while he was out of Rome, and he hurried back as fast as he could to direct firefighting efforts. Nor did he fiddle, since violins hadn’t been invented yet. He was, however, an ineffectual leader, which is why Galba was able to overthrow him by military action. So you got 1 out of 3 right.

  12. 12
    Dan Greisch says:

    My cousin, Edward Greisch, who wrote several editorials and commented on the articles in Real Climate has passed away after a short illness.

    Ed devoted much of his life to the cause of Climate change reversal. He was a highly educated retired scientist.

    I have never heard this fact that Ed often wrote about, something he had calculated, and I hope doesn’t die with him. I hope I get this right.

    Wind and Solar energy can only go so far, because of the irregularities in wind speed and the sun doesn’t shine at night, large batteries would be required to have a constant source of power. The problem is, there is not enough material on the planet to build these batteries. The answer is nuclear power and the only problem with that is the public’s fear of it. It is my hope that someone will carry this idea forward.

    [Response: Our condolences to you and your cousin’s family. Ed has been a fixture here at RC for many years (his first comment (out of almost 2000) was in 2006) and contributed constructively on many topics. We will miss him, but the cause he was engaged with will continue on. – gavin]

  13. 13
    mike says:

    Last Week

    August 21 – 27, 2016 401.97 ppm

    August 21 – 27, 2015 398.97 ppm

    looks like 3 ppm increase on pretty noisy weekly average numbers.

    I read

    http://www.climatecentral.org/news/tropical-storm-madeline-caused-a-dip-below-400-ppm-20657

    that we may have a downward fluctuation in readings at MLO. I was wondering how we were getting the occasional daily readings at almost 1 ppm increase level. Daily average is very noisy, but if you watch it (like every day) it is possible to make informed guess abt what is trend and what is fluctuation or noise.

    I had projected 404.1 for August average, but I think I am abt 1 ppm high on that number. I am not sure what to think about this, but I followed rate of decline post 1998 EN event and that EN ended with transition to LN, where 2016 EN end is in neutral territory. This is an interesting mental exercise to work on with the free time that comes with retirement.

    Tamino has primer on fluctuations and trends that is worth a read:

    https://tamino.wordpress.com/

    Warm regards,

    Mike

  14. 14
    David B. Benson says:

    Thomas @3 — Twice wrong. Not only were there no fiddles in Nero’s day but upon learning of the fires he left his villa to return to Rome in order to direct the firefighting.

    More important, what could your comment possibly contribute to the understanding of climatology?

  15. 15
    sidd says:

    May I request a guest post by Prof. Ruddiman, if he is willing, to discuss the recent paper doi:10.1038/nature19082 on the early onset of industrial-era warming in the light of his work ?

  16. 16
    Thomas says:

    14 David B. Benson, (and others) buy a good dictionary mate.

    fiddle
    verb
    past tense: fiddled; past participle: fiddled
    1.
    touch or fidget with something in a restless or nervous way.
    “Lena fiddled with her cup”
    synonyms: fidget, play, toy, twiddle, fuss, fool about/around, trifle;

    If people can get so easily stuck over a simple word like “fiddled” only to get that wrong, then my comment proves how it could contribute to a better understanding of the complexities in climatology and what to do about it and why it’s so damned hard.

    aka people are stupid and do make the most ludicrous false assumptions over what people say. Thanks for proving my point.

    Do I need to explain this comment as well to the intellectually challenged here? :-)

  17. 17
    Thomas says:

    12 Dan Greisch, my sincere heart felt sympathies to you and all of Ed’s family. He will be missed here that’s for sure. His sincerity, commitment and passion to do good was unmatched, not only here but across other forums. imo in the years to come he will be essentially proved correct.

    May he Rest in Peace.

  18. 18
    Thomas says:

    11 Barton Paul Levenson pushes more false assumptions, ignorance, insults and errors. You win an ‘A’ for Consistency BPL. Please collect your prize at the exit door.

  19. 19
    Thomas says:

    7 Chuck Hughes says: “Politics and insults don’t seem to be your forte. Thanks”

    Oh really, how nice. Politics and insults don’t seem to be your forte Chuck. Thanks but no thanks.

    My discussing of climate change (incl refs) and more specifically the science are self-evident. Look harder if you missed it all, but what you choose to do or conclude is up to you, not me. Because it’s none of my business.

    I do not see that climate scientists incl on RC are obligated to further explain the complexities and inter-relatedness of their knowledge and work to AGW/CC denialists on the sole basis they do not understand it and/or refuse to think about it properly. The best they can expect is rebuttals to their foolishness, false claims, false assumptions, and manipulative sophistry as Gavin did about Roberts on Q&A.
    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/08/australian-silliness-and-july-temperature-records/

    My approach is similar.

    Although I am an Australian I was not offended by the phrase “Australian silliness” because I did not assume he must have been talking about me personally.

    Climate science is not the only subject of great importance today that is both complex and inter-related, and confronting entrenched but false ideological beliefs. The funny thing is they are all connected anyway. Well, imo, they are.

    Readers and commenters here are free to agree, disagree, research further, or discuss things maturely, to crack a joke, or to ridicule.

    Make your own choices. It’s none of my business. I’m happy to let the moderators moderate as they see fit.

  20. 20
    Chris Dudley says:

    Thomas,

    Politics, yes. Even Gavin detailed his one yr old to lobby Gore to support Jill Stein. That guy has serious Clinton loyalty sticktoitiveness. Lost him an election but he still can’t let go and do the right thing.

    Ah, politics….

  21. 21
    sidd says:

    I am saddened to hear of the passing of Mr Edward Greisch. He was a passionate evangelizer on the dangers of anthropogenic climate change. I did not agree with him on many points, but I will miss him.

    Here’s to Edward, I tip a glass to his memory.

    sidd

  22. 22
    Chuck Hughes says:

    BPL: Except, of course, that the fire started while he was out of Rome, and he hurried back as fast as he could to direct firefighting efforts. Nor did he fiddle, since violins hadn’t been invented yet. He was, however, an ineffectual leader, which is why Galba was able to overthrow him by military action. So you got 1 out of 3 right.

    Comment by Barton Paul Levenson — 2 Sep 2016 @

    “Is it Humour? If it is then ha ha ha – how witty!” – Thomas

    In this particular instance I would call it “schadenfreude”, Thomas. It’s not the exact term but it’s close enough. I think if you insist on ‘fiddling’ with Barton Paul Levenson you’ll end up looking even more foolish than you do now.

    I learned the hard way to ask questions and be humble or you will get your ass handed to you. Some of the sharpest scientific minds in the world hang out here and I can tell you they don’t do bullshit. Barton not only knows his science but can put it in historical context and beat you over the head with it. Now, back to Climate Change…. please!

  23. 23
    Susan Anderson says:

    Dan Greisch, thank you so much for letting us know. Your cousin was indeed passionate and his work will go on.

    Best wishes to you.

  24. 24
    Thomas says:

    Travelling outside the myopic self-centric Pax-Americana version of reality is a joy to behold.

    Have you heard of Shri Piyush Goyal Minister of State with Independent Charge for Power, Coal, New & Renewable Energy and Mines in the Government of India?

    Even less known, with only 1,434 views, is this little speech by Piyush Goyal:
    Launching Report “Large Scale Integration of Renewable Energy” April 2016
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uURYQSsAN_8 (35 mins)

    One comment said: “It was a great pleasure for me [participating] in the meeting today. I have [been] inspired by the words delivered by our honorable Sh. Piyush Goyal, Sh. S. K. Soonee, Sh. Jyoti Arora. During the meeting, I have been [encouraged] as a power system research scholar by looking at the power pack people in the Indian power industry today in the meeting and their aspirations about the enhancement of the Indian power community. Such a strong support of this government towards smarter power grid is inspirational.”

    Is this showing a stark contrast between the genuine politics of public service and duty vs the usual political spin in the West? I’m curious if RC readers can double the views count over the weekend.

    Meanwhile the G20 leaders meet over the weekend. Paris COP Treaty Ratification?

    “Climate will be a centerpiece of our agenda” at the G-20 meeting, Obama said Wednesday during a stop in his native Hawaii en route to Hangzhou. “Joint U.S.-Chinese leadership was part of the reason that we were able to get Paris done.”
    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-09-01/obama-s-dwindling-china-wish-list-topped-by-climate-ratification

    Another perspective of the China-US divide
    http://www.china-brain.com/Resources/China–the-Green-Energy-Superpower/229.html

    And try not to miss this little gem from Piyush Goyal here fore 3 mins:
    https://youtu.be/uURYQSsAN_8?t=25m6s

    “What the West is doing … is anti-development and anti the fight against climate change… affordable energy access for all the people of the world”

    Check your dictionary for the meaning of very rare words like: gratis, pro-bono, and free of charge and then recognize that there are billions on this planet who do not think like Americans do, have very different values than Americans have, and do not operate their politics or international affairs like Americans do either.

    It’s not about who or what is right and wrong. It is about respecting others differences as valid and legitimate. Others too have the inalienable right to make their own political decisions as they see fit, whether the President of the US likes it or not.

    It’s all about Values https://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_85.htm

    Learning the lessons of Vietnam compels (or should compel) the American people to realize that the size of their Military, and it’s misuse, is essentially irrelevant to everyone else sharing this little blue planet of ours.

    Including but especially China and Russia today. The relevance here and connections to climate change, ideology, AGW denial, global economics, and the politics surrounding all of it should be self-evident (in a perfect world). :-)

    Refs:
    http://powermin.nic.in/sites/default/files/uploads/Final_Consolidated_Report_RE_Technical_Committee.pdf
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032116300600
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_India
    http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2016/06/30/world-bank-india-sign-deal-to-boost-solar-globally
    https://cleantechnica.com/2016/06/13/india-secures-2-5-billion-debt-funding-rooftop-solar-power-projects/
    http://mnre.gov.in/schemes/decentralized-systems/solar-cities/
    http://www.makeinindia.com/sector/renewable-energy

    USA
    In the twelve months through June 2016, utility scale solar power generated 30.4 terawatt-hours (TWh), 0.75% of total U.S. electricity.
    A report finds that solar power’s contribution could grow to 10% of the nation’s power needs by 2025

    As the video shows, Shri Piyush Goyal’s goal for India is to have 24/7 electricity power across all of India by 2019 instead of an election promise of 2022. This means delivering power to over 200 million people who still do not have it and have never had it.

    American’s have it easy. :-)

  25. 25
    Susan Anderson says:

    I am curious to see if the date for the sea ice minimum is pushed back this year. As always, Neven’s people are hot on the case, in the forum as well:
    http://neven1.typepad.com/

    Tropical activity is also at a very high level:
    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NHEM/animw.html

  26. 26
    Chuck Hughes says:

    Jill Stein was slated to speak at noon at Capital University, a school in Bexley, OH, near Columbus. But there seemed to some miscommunication because the Capital University Greens Student Organization told The Dispatch that Stein flew into Cincinnati, which is about 2 hours away by car.

    The paper reported that there were about 100 attendees waiting at the rally site for Stein and that pizzas are being ordered for those who waited while Stein made that drive. It was unclear who was providing the pizzas. As of this posting Stein had not yet arrived at the rally site.

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/green-party-s-jill-stein-flies-to-wrong-ohio-city-for-rally

    “Columbus, Cincinnati, who cares? What’s important is that there’s no difference between Clinton and Trump, amirite?

    Besides, her Putin-supplied pilot wasn’t properly vaccinated.”

  27. 27
    SF says:

    One should write “the ‘below 1.5°C’ target”. If UN so quickly asks for a report on the 1.5°C upper bound, it does mean of course that we are not confident at all about chances to success in.
    Anyway, this report will be relevant to get a first picture of a serious warming. Time will come afterwards when we study the 3°C upper bound.

  28. 28
    Killian says:

    Re #12 Dan Greisch,

    Ed gone? Hmmm… One is reminded there are people behind words. Such an interesting fellow. Fought hard for what he thought appropriate. Sadly, the same problem he saw with “renewables” afflicts nuclear power.

    We often agreed and often disagreed. Hard to begrudge a man his convictions when they are honestly held.

    Sounds like he lived a good life. Lucky you were to know him, if so.

    Peace to you and yours.

  29. 29

    Ed was the first commentator to my website, when it was called climateprogress.net, around 2009 or 2010 if i recall correctly – he had a question about methane hydrates. I respected his input, often insightful.

  30. 30

    DG 12,

    I’m very sorry to hear about Ed. He was a well-educated and dedicated guy, and he will be missed. He and I often clashed on nuclear power, but he was never vicious or impolite. I wish you and your family the best.

  31. 31
    Bill Ruddiman says:

    Rather then do a full post as requested by Sidd (#15), here is my quick reaction to the Abram et al paper on early industrial warming (doi:10.1038/nature19082):

    CO2 first began a steady rise above pre-industrial levels near 1850. It makes sense that this forcing would have caused regional and global temp to increase, but slowly at first. CH4 had begun its steady rise earlier (the late 1700’s), but the small radiative forcing would have been difficult to detect in temp time series, especially with large volcanic explosions cooling the early 1800’s.

    As for pre-industrial temp trends: SAT indices from Shaun Marcott and colleagues show a small global cooling, with the strongest signals coming from high northern latitudes. These northern signals are biased toward the summer season, which was cooling because of decreasing insolation, while the winter-season trends under increasing insolation are not well known. Also, lower-latitude SAT trends show no major temp change, and GCM models (work by Zhengyu Liu and colleagues) even show a small global warming. In any case, the CO2 rise and warming after 1850 are definite departures from the small and uncertain trends that came before.

    This is all consistent with the early anthropogenic hypothesis. Our claim is that temperature would have cooled substantially during the last 7000 years if CO2 and CH4 concentrations had followed the natural downward trends that occurred in previous interglaciations. Instead, global temperature stayed nearly constant and near-Arctic temperatures cooled less because the slow anthropogenic GHG increases added an offsetting warming effect. During the last 2000 years, the CO2 rise slowed because deforestation in Europe and China (and probably India?) was nearly complete, and because reforestation sequestered CO2 during major pandemics.

  32. 32
    MA Rodger says:

    Thomas @5&6.
    Disconnecting the climate science from the politics is not just possible, it is very simple. There are actually two routes which connect the two.
    Firstly there is discussion of mitigation. This subject is closely coupled with things political because it is politics which is the arbiter of the mitigation what-&-when. There are points on this mitigation route to things political that can be defined as a limit. They are when the talk moves from discussing the efficacy of a specific technology to become a discussion of the implementation of mitigation measures or to a comparison of mitigation technologies. At this point the subject enters an arena dominated by political decision-making (or potential future decision-making). But that sounds all rather complicated & I wrote above it was “very simple.”
    The simple approach here is not to discuss mitigation. If you do, be sparing of the volume. Remember mitigation is not climate science so RealClimate isn’t its natural habitat. In the past mitigation as a subject for discussion was overtly discouraged while, as a mitigation technology, nuclear was dealt with more harshly. That was what I read into the “Usual Rules Apply” directive that have often in the past appeared in the Unforced Variation headers.

    The second route connecting politics & science is when the two meet head on. I am a political animal and it is probably only because of being political that I have got so heavily involved with bashing on about the dangers of AGW. But when I arrive @RealClimate I keep the politics-speak buttoned.
    When politics begins to wield science for some reason, that is not science, it is politics. If the science they wield is at variance to the science in some way, the discussion of that variance becomes scientific in nature. It is no longer politics.
    Is that difference so difficult to grasp?

    The bulk of your comments @5&6 are discussing (1@5) a cut in resources provided by politicians for inserting science into politics and (2@6) AGW denial in certain media with a final link to (3@6) an account of the convoluted working of anti-science within US politics. Which side of my line would you rate these three, science or politics?

  33. 33
    Lawrence Coleman says:

    BPL. I’ve often wondered, should a Christian take any ownership for the mess that the planet is in today? Granted, you are not Catholic, so your beliefs may not be as extreme and inflexible as some. Our 7.3billion pop. is not entirely a consequence of a ‘go forth and multiply ideology since the third world is responsible for a large proportion of that number. As a lay Buddhist I have always known balance and equality between species and that our survival is solely dependant upon the survival of the whole. It really troubles me when one’s “belief” overrides the application of logic or reasoned thought. Our current dire situation can be concluded to be the abandonment of our intrinsic spiritual (sense of unity with all) values with our blind obsession and preoccupation of our insatiatible egos. Spirituality in my heart and mind simply means the sense of equality and unity of all the different forms of life around us..nothing more…nothing less. Until we truly appreciate that we human beings are doomed to be a failed species on the evolutionary scrap heap. That would be OK if only it didn’t commit every other species to the same fate.

  34. 34
    Lawrence Coleman says:

    12: Yes, very sad to hear of Edward’s passing. He was such a passionate contributor to RC. We will certainly continue to educate and inform the public on this singularly vital issue. Nuclear has got be in the mix of energy sources but with a physically and geo-politically destabilising world and diminishing water supplies it will be more and more difficult to place suitable locations and garner adequate funding. My condolences.

  35. 35
    Alf says:

    WTF ???
    OMG !!!
    Unprecedented loss of Atctic Sea Ice near end of melting season.

    ~500000 km2 in only 1 day!

    Holy shit! I’m getting teary-eyed.

    Good luck!

  36. 36
    Hank Roberts says:

    Aside:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=“science+friday”+hookworms

    Young folks don’t remember when hookworms were a plague all across the warm states — and now that warming’s moving north, so are the hookworms.

    Put those darned shoes on …

  37. 37
    Hank Roberts says:

    Cheer up, things could get worse:

    The researchers used what they termed a Human And Nature DYnamical (HANDY) formula to reach their conclusions. The formula uses factors such as birth rates, resources, and income classes to create a mathematical equation to project outcomes.

    The study was sponsored by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and headed by the National Science Foundation’s Safa Motesharrei.

    For those who think modern society is immune from the problems that brought down ancient civilizations, a “brief overview of collapses demonstrates not only the ubiquity of the phenomenon, but also the extent to which advanced, complex and powerful societies are susceptible to collapse,” the study said.

    hat tip to: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/03/heres-how-nasa-thinks-society-will-collapse/441375/

  38. 38
  39. 39
    Thomas says:

    Kudos to all who take the time out to comment on RC and also to those who read this space in silence.

    (imo) What the future holds for Climate Change Politics globally is more of the following:

    The US has joined China to formally ratify the Paris agreement to curb climate-warming emissions.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/sep/03/g20-summit-obama-to-make-climate-change-announcement-as-may-heads-to-china-live

    Forecast the Facts becomes ClimateTruth.org in 2015 – We fight the denial, distortion, and disinformation that block bold action on climate change.
    http://climatetruth.org/about/
    http://climatetruth.org/campaigns/

    Netherlands Court Case
    http://www.urgenda.nl/en/climate-case/
    http://theconversation.com/what-does-the-dutch-court-ruling-on-climate-targets-mean-for-australia-43841
    http://theconversation.com/dutch-courts-climate-ruling-may-force-other-states-to-cut-emissions-or-else-43882

    Oregon Federal US Court Case begins Sept 13th
    http://www.ourchildrenstrust.org/us/federal-lawsuit/
    Global Legal Actions
    http://www.ourchildrenstrust.org/global-legal-actions/

    The anti-climate science activists and their followers living in Denial have as much chance of succeeding as the anti-equality anti-constitution white racists had against School Desegregation in the 1960s USA. None!

    The Global Future will include NPP Electricity to power transport, desalination, industry and more.
    eg SA Nuclear Fuel Cycle Royal Commission Report
    http://yoursay.sa.gov.au/pages/nuclear-fuel-cycle-royal-commission-report-release/

    and

    August 2016: China-U.S. cooperation to advance nuclear power. Science Mag, 353,
    http://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6299/547.full?ijkey=7.4C0Yg90r8G.&keytype=ref&siteid=sci

    Plus complementary actions as per India with “Large Scale Integration of Renewable Energy” April 2016
    http://powermin.nic.in/sites/default/files/uploads/Final_Consolidated_Report_RE_Technical_Committee.pdf

    Eventually this is where the planet will end up (absent war) ie almost sane but reasonable and practical at the end of the day. (Peace out)

  40. 40
    Nemesis says:

    @David B. Benson, #14

    Nero may or may not have been playing the fiddle when Rome burnt- but right nowadays, when Rome is actually burning, there seems to be a lot of fiddle-playing:

    http://tinyurl.com/hhlkf5c

    http://tinyurl.com/gq6uxq3

    Now, what does that fiddling contribute to the understanding of climate change? Well, to me, it tells a funny story about some funny “elite” fiddling in the middle of a bad planetary climate crisis. That fiddling isn’t really CO2- nor ressource-saving and it neither gives the impression, that BAU is ending nor that the political money-power “elite” is changing it’s direction. The political money power “elite” class preaches water, but swills wine en masse and the consumer herd is following according to the sacred imperative of capitalism:

    Greed is good!

    That’s the name of the game. Amen.

  41. 41
    Chuck Hughes says:

    This doesn’t sound too good…

    They have two hypotheses for what could have triggered it — the particularly strong El Niño in 2015-16 or the long-term trend of rising global temperatures. Newman said the scientists are conducting further research now to figure out if the event was a “black swan,” a once-in-a-generation event, or a “canary in the coal mine,” a shift with unforeseen circumstances, caused by climate change.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/09/160902142132.htm

  42. 42
    RobRoy says:

    re: “about politics perhaps.”

    If there is anyone in RCland who can convince me as to how one can logically and rationally disconnect the embedded inbred links between Climate Science and Politics anywhere, including here, then I am all ears.

    Look at the scholarly literature. Highly cited papers are still a good guide to climate science, and many of them are reasonably accessible to a layman.

    That Politics can ever be separated from climate science today is just another Myth some people like to believe.

    I think that that’s the media and possibly the government. There’s still scientific research going on. Unfortunately not climate science research at CSIRO, but Universities haven’t abandoned the field.

  43. 43
    Thomas says:

    22 Chuck Hughes, have some respect. Let the man defend himself. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/09/unforced-variations-sep-2016/#comment-659822

    That and combative debates, your opinions about me or the content of my posts aren’t important to me. I have no need for ‘appeals to authority’ and other fallacies to back up what I say and why I say it. You’re welcome to disagree of course. Do it.

    26 Chuck Hughes, what were saying about ‘climate change’ again, oh yes “Now, back to Climate Change…. please!” Ahem. Please stop fiddling about Chuck, and make up your own mind first. :-)

    32 MA Rodger, thanks for the sensible reply. Nothing new there I didn’t already know incl RC rules. I actually mentioned those rules specifically last month. You may have missed that. We’re speaking at cross-purposes imo – I think you missed the psychological point I was making. Besides I was not the one to raise the issue of politics here nor mitigation. I responded. Find a better target to educate (there are many) because I am way ahead of you already.

  44. 44
    Thomas says:

    40 Nemesis says: “That’s the name of the game. Amen.”

    Yes. Maybe if we keep quoting the bible to show how ‘clever’ we are and pray it’ll help? :-)

  45. 45
    Thomas says:

    42 RobRoy says: “Look at the scholarly literature. Highly cited papers are still a good guide to climate science, and many of them are reasonably accessible to a layman.

    Hi Rob, been there done that, bought the T-shirt a long time ago, and still am reading it. I read scholarly literature beyond only climate science too. I even reference it here now and then especially on psychology, cognitive science, social sciences and more, eg neuroscience on beliefs vs analytical thinking.

    You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make them drink. I like to pass on good info for the readers, ie the silent moderate majority, and much less so for the commenters. It’s my own small contribution designed to help others. Thx. :-)

  46. 46
    Chuck Hughes says:

    My heart felt condolences to the family of Ed Greisch. I read his posts with great interest and appreciation. He will be sorely missed.

  47. 47
    Chuck Hughes says:

    aka people are stupid and do make the most ludicrous false assumptions over what people say. Thanks for proving my point.

    Do I need to explain this comment as well to the intellectually challenged here? :-)

    Comment by Thomas — 2 Sep 2016 @

    I could just listen to you for hourZzzzzz….

  48. 48
    Hank Roberts says:

    Alf posts a graphic and says “OMG … unprecedented”

    Boring, Alf. Look at the years you’ve presented — and the years you’ve had to omit from presenting — to make that claim.

    Consider all the available data, or at least, consider the precedents before claiming “unprecedented”

    http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries_thumb.png

    Boring!

  49. 49
    Hank Roberts says:

    Oh, Alf went past boring — by presenting a link to an individual chart that omitted 2012, from a page that includes both that one AND — immediately below it — the chart showing all the years including 2012, so he could make his false claim.

    http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/#Arctic

    Naughty, naughty Alf.

  50. 50
    Radge Havers says:

    What sidd said (@21) +1.

    Condolences to Edward’s family.

    Here’s to Ed. I’ll miss him.