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Recent temperature anomalies (red line), compared to the previous records (dashed), and an expectation based on long term trends + 3 month lagged response to ENSO (with 95% CI).

New journal: Nature 2023?

30 May 2024 By Gavin 94 Comments

There were a number of media reports today related to , for instance, New Scientist, The Guardian etc. However, this is really just the beginning of what is likely to be a bit of a cottage industry in the next few months relating to possible causes/influences on the extreme temperatures seen in 2023. So to help people keep track, we'll maintain a list here to focus discussions. Additionally, we'll … Read Full Article about New journal: Nature 2023?

Featured Story

Much ado about acceleration

4 Apr 2024 By Gavin

There has been a lot of commentary about perceived disagreements among climate scientists about whether climate change is, or will soon, accelerate. As with most punditry, there is less here than it might seem. … Read Full Article about Much ado about acceleration

Recent Posts

Unforced variations: July 2024

30 Jun 2024 By group 255 Comments

This month's open thread on climate science topics. … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: July 2024

Unforced variations: June 2024

1 Jun 2024 By group

This month's open thread on climate topics. Please stay focused, minimize repetitive comments, and maintain a half-way decent level of decorum. Thanks! … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: June 2024

Unforced Variations: May 2024

30 Apr 2024 By group

This month's open thread on climate topics. Many eyes will be focused on whether April temperatures will be the 11th month in row of records... Note that we have updated the data and figures from the Nenana Ice Classic and Dawson City river ice break up pools (the nominal 13th and 5th earliest … Read Full Article about Unforced Variations: May 2024

Unforced variations: Apr 2024

1 Apr 2024 By group

This month's open thread on climate topics. Lots more discussion about 2023, aerosols, heat content and imbalances to come I expect... Note, comments should be substantive even if you are arguing with who you perceive to be the worst person in the world. Comments that are mainly personal attacks … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: Apr 2024

More solar shenanigans*

7 Mar 2024 By Gavin

Going back a few months, I spent a bit of time pointing out the strategy and nonsense in the various Willie Soon and company's efforts to blame current warming on solar activity. I specifically pointed out their cultish devotion to a single solar activity reconstruction (HS93); with an update from … Read Full Article about More solar shenanigans*

Unforced variations: March 2024

2 Mar 2024 By group

The month's open thread on climate topics. More record monthly warmth, but only the second lowest Antarctic sea ice though (growing since 2023!). … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: March 2024

New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”

9 Feb 2024 By Stefan

A new paper was published in Science Advances today. Its title says what it is about: "Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course." The study follows one by Danish colleagues which made headlines last July, likewise looking for early warning signals for approaching an … Read Full Article about New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”

Unforced variations: Feb 2024

31 Jan 2024 By group

This month's open thread for climate topics. This month's climate highlight will likely be the PACE launch at some point between Feb 6th and Feb 8th, that will hopefully provide information on aerosols and ocean color with more detail than ever before. Fingers crossed! A few notes on the blog … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: Feb 2024

Spencer’s Shenanigans

28 Jan 2024 By Gavin

A recent sensible-sounding piece by Roy Spencer for the Heritage foundation is full of misrepresentations. Let's play spot the fallacy. … Read Full Article about Spencer’s Shenanigans

Time series from 1979 of CMIP3 climate model hindcasts to 2000, and projections beyond, compared to observed temperatures. The long term trends in the models are a good fit to the actual temperatures.

Not just another dot on the graph? Part II

16 Jan 2024 By Gavin

Annual updates to the model-observation comparisons for 2023 are now complete. The comparisons encompass surface air temperatures, mid-troposphere temperatures (global and tropical, and 'corrected'), sea surface temperatures, and stratospheric temperatures. In almost every case, the addition of the … Read Full Article about Not just another dot on the graph? Part II

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