A new paper was published in Science Advances today. Its title says what it is about: "Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course." The study follows one by Danish colleagues which made headlines last July, likewise looking for early warning signals for approaching an AMOC tipping point (we discussed it here), but using rather different data and methods. The new … Read Full Article about New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”
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Spencer’s Shenanigans
A recent sensible-sounding piece by Roy Spencer for the Heritage foundation is full of misrepresentations. Let's play spot the fallacy. … Read Full Article about Spencer’s Shenanigans
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Unforced variations: Feb 2024
This month's open thread for climate topics. This month's climate highlight will likely be the PACE launch at some point between Feb 6th and Feb 8th, that will hopefully provide information on aerosols and ocean color with more detail than ever before. Fingers crossed! A few notes on the blog … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: Feb 2024
Not just another dot on the graph? Part II
Annual updates to the model-observation comparisons for 2023 are now complete. The comparisons encompass surface air temperatures, mid-troposphere temperatures (global and tropical, and 'corrected'), sea surface temperatures, and stratospheric temperatures. In almost every case, the addition of the … Read Full Article about Not just another dot on the graph? Part II
Not just another dot on the graph?
As the climate monitoring groups add an additional dot to their graphs this week, there is some disquiet among people paying attention about just how extraordinary 2023 really was. … Read Full Article about Not just another dot on the graph?
Annual GMSAT predictions and ENSO
For the last few years (since at least 2016), I've shared predictions for the next annual global mean surface air temperature (GMSAT) anomaly based on the long term trend and the state of ENSO at the start of the year. Generally speaking, this has been quite skillful compared to persistence or just … Read Full Article about Annual GMSAT predictions and ENSO
Unforced variations: Jan 2024
New year, new open thread on climate topics. Note that summaries and updates to include 2023 data will be posted on the surface temperature graphics page and model-observations comparison page over the next couple of weeks as the data becomes available. … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: Jan 2024
2023 appears to follow an upward trend in the North Atlantic/Caribbean named tropical cyclone count
This year’s (2023) tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic and Caribbean witnessed a relatively high number of named tropical cyclones: 20. In spite of the current El Niño, which tends to give lower numbers. But it appears to follow a historical trend for named tropical cyclones with an … Read Full Article about 2023 appears to follow an upward trend in the North Atlantic/Caribbean named tropical cyclone count
Unforced Variations: Dec 2023
Well, that year went quickly. This month, there is the COP28 hoopla, the ongoing El Niño and the speculation about the 2023 temperature ranking (which will not be that surprising). An open thread for climate topics... … Read Full Article about Unforced Variations: Dec 2023
Science denial is still an issue ahead of COP28
It is 33 years now since the IPCC in its first report in 1990 concluded that it is “certain” that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities “will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth's surface.” That has indeed happened as predicted, it has … Read Full Article about Science denial is still an issue ahead of COP28
Clauser-ology: Cloudy with a chance of meatballs
John Clauser's theory of climate explained. Some of you will have heard of John Clauser because he was an awardee of the 2022 Nobel Prize in Physics for his role in the experimental verification of quantum entanglement. Some of you will have heard of him because the first thing that he did … Read Full Article about Clauser-ology: Cloudy with a chance of meatballs
A distraction due to errors, misunderstanding and misguided Norwegian statistics
A friend asked me if a discussion paper published on Statistics Norway’s website, ‘To what extent are temperature levels changing due to greenhouse gas emissions?’, was purposely timed for the next climate summit (COP28). I don’t know the answer to his question. … Read Full Article about A distraction due to errors, misunderstanding and misguided Norwegian statistics