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The AMOC: tipping this century, or not?

25 Aug 2023 By Stefan 17 Comments

A few weeks ago, a study by Copenhagen University researchers Peter and Susanne Ditlevsen concluded that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is likely to pass a tipping point already this century, most probably around mid-century. Given the catastrophic consequences of an AMOC breakdown, the study made quite a few headlines but also met some skepticism. Now that the dust has … Read Full Article about The AMOC: tipping this century, or not?

Featured Story

What is happening in the Atlantic Ocean to the AMOC?

24 Jul 2023 By Stefan 159 Comments

For various reasons I'm motivated to provide an update on my current thinking regarding the slowdown and tipping point of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). I attended a two-day AMOC session at the IUGG Conference the week before last, there's been interesting new papers, and in the light of that I have been changing my views somewhat. Here's ten points, starting from the very … Read Full Article about What is happening in the Atlantic Ocean to the AMOC?

Recent Posts

Unforced Variations: Aug 2023

1 Aug 2023 By group 82 Comments

This month’s open thread for climate topics. Has anyone noticed how warm it’s been? Someone should probably look into that… … Read Full Article about Unforced Variations: Aug 2023

Area-based global hydro-climatological indicators

23 Jul 2023 By rasmus 64 Comments

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) both provide sets of global climate statistics to summarise the state of Earth’s climate. They are indeed valuable indicators for the global or regional mean temperature, … Read Full Article about Area-based global hydro-climatological indicators

Back to basics

8 Jul 2023 By Gavin 187 Comments

You can tell how worried the climate deniers are by how many fields of science they have to trash to try and have people not see what’s happening. it will not have escaped most people’s notice that global temperatures are heading into uncharted territory. The proximate cause of this week’s … Read Full Article about Back to basics

Unforced variations: July 2023

1 Jul 2023 By group

This month's open thread for climate topics. Let the (northern hemisphere) heat wave and wildfire smoke season begin! … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: July 2023

Turning a new page[s]

4 Jun 2023 By Gavin

The world is full of climate dashboards (and dashboards of dashboards), and so you might imagine that all datasets and comparisons are instantly available in whatever graphical form you like. Unfortunately, we often want graphics to emphasize a particular point or comparison, and generic graphs from … Read Full Article about Turning a new page[s]

Unforced Variations: Jun 2023

2 Jun 2023 By group

This month's open thread on climate topics. … Read Full Article about Unforced Variations: Jun 2023

Evaluation of simulation of TAS over Europe

Evaluation of GCM simulations with a regional focus.

31 May 2023 By rasmus

Do the global climate models (GCMs) we use for describing future climate change really capture the change and variations in the region that we want to study? There are widely used tools for evaluating global climate models, such as the ESMValTool, but they don’t provide the answers that I seek. I … Read Full Article about Evaluation of GCM simulations with a regional focus.

CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

21 May 2023 By Gavin

As predicted in 1967 by Manabe and Wetherald, the stratosphere has been cooling. A new paper by has appeared in PNAS where they extend their previous work on the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change to include the upper stratosphere, using observations from the Stratospheric … Read Full Article about CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

Unforced variations: May 2023

1 May 2023 By group

This month's open thread on climate topics. Please be succinct, courteous and on point. … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: May 2023

A NOAA-STAR dataset is born…

23 Apr 2023 By Gavin

What does a new entrant in the lower troposphere satellite record stakes really imply? At the beginning of the year, we noted that the NOAA-STAR group had produced a new version (v5.0) of their MSU TMT satellite retrievals which was quite a radical departure from the previous version (4.1). It … Read Full Article about A NOAA-STAR dataset is born…

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Recent Posts

  • The AMOC: tipping this century, or not?
  • Unforced Variations: Aug 2023
  • What is happening in the Atlantic Ocean to the AMOC?
  • Area-based global hydro-climatological indicators
  • Back to basics
  • Unforced variations: July 2023

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  • Geoff Beacon on The AMOC: tipping this century, or not?
  • Carbomontanus on The AMOC: tipping this century, or not?
  • Thiemo Kellner on The AMOC: tipping this century, or not?
  • Stefan on The AMOC: tipping this century, or not?
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