A recent paper suggested that 'climate sensitivity' derived from a new paleo-CO2 record is around 7.2ºC (for equilibrium climate sensitivity ECS) and ~13.9ºC (Earth System Sensitivity - ESS) for a doubling of CO2. Some press has suggested that this means that "Earth’s Temperature Could Increase by 25 Degrees" (F). Huge if true! Fortunately these numbers should not be taken at face value, but we … Read Full Article about Oh My, Oh Miocene!
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The need for pluralism in climate modelling
How should we allocate resources for climate modelling if the goal is to improve climate-related decisions? Higher resolution, machine learning and/or storylines? A call for a deeper discussion on how we should develop the climate modelling toolbox. Guest post by Marina Baldissera Pacchetti, Julie Jebeile and Erica Thompson … Read Full Article about The need for pluralism in climate modelling
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Unforced Variations: Sep 2024
This month's open thread on climate topics. Try to be constructive! … Read Full Article about Unforced Variations: Sep 2024
Unforced variations: Aug 2024
This month's open thread on climate topics. … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: Aug 2024
Unforced variations: July 2024
This month's open thread on climate science topics. … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: July 2024
Unforced variations: June 2024
This month's open thread on climate topics. Please stay focused, minimize repetitive comments, and maintain a half-way decent level of decorum. Thanks! … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: June 2024
New journal: Nature 2023?
There were a number of media reports today related to , for instance, New Scientist, The Guardian etc. However, this is really just the beginning of what is likely to be a bit of a cottage industry in the next few months relating to possible causes/influences on the extreme temperatures seen in … Read Full Article about New journal: Nature 2023?
Unforced Variations: May 2024
This month's open thread on climate topics. Many eyes will be focused on whether April temperatures will be the 11th month in row of records... Note that we have updated the data and figures from the Nenana Ice Classic and Dawson City river ice break up pools (the nominal 13th and 5th earliest … Read Full Article about Unforced Variations: May 2024
Much ado about acceleration
There has been a lot of commentary about perceived disagreements among climate scientists about whether climate change is, or will soon, accelerate. As with most punditry, there is less here than it might seem. … Read Full Article about Much ado about acceleration
Unforced variations: Apr 2024
This month's open thread on climate topics. Lots more discussion about 2023, aerosols, heat content and imbalances to come I expect... Note, comments should be substantive even if you are arguing with who you perceive to be the worst person in the world. Comments that are mainly personal attacks … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: Apr 2024
More solar shenanigans*
Going back a few months, I spent a bit of time pointing out the strategy and nonsense in the various Willie Soon and company's efforts to blame current warming on solar activity. I specifically pointed out their cultish devotion to a single solar activity reconstruction (HS93); with an update from … Read Full Article about More solar shenanigans*
Unforced variations: March 2024
The month's open thread on climate topics. More record monthly warmth, but only the second lowest Antarctic sea ice though (growing since 2023!). … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: March 2024