For the last few years (since at least 2016), I've shared predictions for the next annual global mean surface air temperature (GMSAT) anomaly based on the long term trend and the state of ENSO at the start of the year. Generally speaking, this has been quite skillful compared to persistence or just the long term trend alone - the eventual anomaly was consistently within the predicted bounds. … Read Full Article about Annual GMSAT predictions and ENSO
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Unforced variations: Jan 2024
New year, new open thread on climate topics. Note that summaries and updates to include 2023 data will be posted on the surface temperature graphics page and model-observations comparison page over the next couple of weeks as the data becomes available. … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: Jan 2024
Unforced Variations: Dec 2023
Well, that year went quickly. This month, there is the COP28 hoopla, the ongoing El Niño and the speculation about the 2023 temperature ranking (which will not be that surprising). An open thread for climate topics... … Read Full Article about Unforced Variations: Dec 2023
Science denial is still an issue ahead of COP28
It is 33 years now since the IPCC in its first report in 1990 concluded that it is “certain” that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities “will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth's surface.” That has indeed happened as predicted, it has … Read Full Article about Science denial is still an issue ahead of COP28
Clauser-ology: Cloudy with a chance of meatballs
John Clauser's theory of climate explained. Some of you will have heard of John Clauser because he was an awardee of the 2022 Nobel Prize in Physics for his role in the experimental verification of quantum entanglement. Some of you will have heard of him because the first thing that he did … Read Full Article about Clauser-ology: Cloudy with a chance of meatballs
A distraction due to errors, misunderstanding and misguided Norwegian statistics
A friend asked me if a discussion paper published on Statistics Norway’s website, ‘To what extent are temperature levels changing due to greenhouse gas emissions?’, was purposely timed for the next climate summit (COP28). I don’t know the answer to his question. … Read Full Article about A distraction due to errors, misunderstanding and misguided Norwegian statistics
Unforced Variations: Nov 2023
This month's open thread on climate topics. … Read Full Article about Unforced Variations: Nov 2023
The 5th International Conference on Regional Climate
The fifth international conference on regional climate (ICRC 2023), organised by World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) coordinated downscaling experiment (CORDEX), has just completed. It was a hybrid on-site/online conference with hubs in both Trieste/Italy (hosted by the International Centre on … Read Full Article about The 5th International Conference on Regional Climate
Unforced variations: Oct 2023
This month's open thread on climate topics. Please try to stay on topic and refrain from posting tedious, oft-debunked nonsense. Look out for more reports of ridiculously high global temperatures and intense rainfall, and more confident predictions of the budding El Niño event and annual temperature … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: Oct 2023
Old habits
Media awareness about global warming and climate change has grown fairly steadily since 2004. My impression is that journalists today tend to possess a higher climate literacy than before. This increasing awareness and improved knowledge is encouraging, but there are also some common interpretations … Read Full Article about Old habits
The Scafetta Saga
It has taken 17 months to get a comment published pointing out the obvious errors in the paper in GRL. Back in March 2022, Nicola Scafetta published a short paper in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) purporting to show through 'advanced' means that 'all models with ECS > 3.0°C overestimate … Read Full Article about The Scafetta Saga