Klaus Hasselmann and Suki Manabe Last week, the Nobel physics prize was (half) awarded to Suki Manabe and Klaus Hasselmann for their work on climate prediction and the detection and attribution of climate change. This came as quite a surprise to the climate community - though it was welcomed warmly. We've discussed the early climate model predictions a lot (including some from Manabe and … Read Full Article about A Nobel pursuit
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The definitive CO2/CH4 comparison post
There is a new push to reduce CH4 emissions as a possible quick 'win-win' for climate and air quality. To be clear this is an eminently sensible idea - as it has been for decades (remember the 'Methane-to-markets' initiative from the early 2000s?), but it inevitably brings forth a mish-mash of half-remembered, inappropriate or out-of-date comparisons between the impacts of carbon dioxide and … Read Full Article about The definitive CO2/CH4 comparison post
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The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
Climate scientists are inordinately excited by the release of a new IPCC report (truth be told, that's a bit odd - It's a bit like bringing your end-of-(seven)-year project home and waiting anxiously to see how well it will be received). So, in an uncharacteristically enthusiastic burst of effort, … Read Full Article about The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
Unforced Variations: Oct 2021
Fall is here (in the northern hemisphere at least), along with articles about the impact of climate change on autumnal colors. LandSat9 successfully launched to continue an almost 50 year long series of remote sensing (since 1972!), and the World Economic Forum has proposed and Earth Operations … Read Full Article about Unforced Variations: Oct 2021
Forced responses: Sep 2021
A bimonthly open thread for discussions related to climate solutions. Note that open discussions of climate science are here. Possible topics of interest are the trial carbon-capture effort in Iceland and the discussions in the lead up to COP26. Please be constructive and substantive. … Read Full Article about Forced responses: Sep 2021
Unforced Variations: Sep 2021
This month's open thread for climate science topics. Not sure about you, but we are still reading the details of the IPCC report. We are watching the unfolding hurricane season with trepidation, with particular concern related to the impacts of compound events (and not just those associated … Read Full Article about Unforced Variations: Sep 2021
Sea level in the IPCC 6th assessment report (AR6)
My top 3 impressions up-front: The sea level projections for the year 2100 have been adjusted upwards again. The IPCC has introduced a new high-end risk scenario, stating that a global rise “approaching 2 m by 2100 and 5 m by 2150 under a very high greenhouse gas emissions scenario cannot be … Read Full Article about Sea level in the IPCC 6th assessment report (AR6)
A deep dive into the IPCC’s updated carbon budget numbers
Guest post by Joeri Rogelj (Twitter: @joerirogelj) Since temperature targets became international climate goals, we have been trying to understand and quantify the implications for our global emissions. Carbon budgets play an important role in this translation. Carbon budgets tell us how much … Read Full Article about A deep dive into the IPCC’s updated carbon budget numbers
Deciphering the ‘SPM AR6 WG1’ code
I followed with great interest the launch of the sixth assessment report Working Group 1 (The Physical Science Basis) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on August 9th. The main report is quite impressive (see earlier posts here, here, here, and here) but the press … Read Full Article about Deciphering the ‘SPM AR6 WG1’ code
#NotAllModels
The biggest contribution scientists can make to #scicomm related to the newly released IPCC Sixth Assessment report, is to stop talking about the multi-model mean. … Read Full Article about #NotAllModels
A Tale of Two Hockey Sticks
Two decades ago, the so-called “Hockey Stick” curve, published in 1999 by me and my co-authors , was featured in the all-important “Summary for Policy Makers” (SPM) of the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment report. The curve, which depicted temperature variations over the past 1000 years estimated from … Read Full Article about A Tale of Two Hockey Sticks
AR6 of the best
Half a dozen takeaways from a first read of the new IPCC AR6 report. As climate scientists we tend to look at the IPCC reports a little differently than the general public might. Here are a few things that mark this report out from previous versions that relate to issues we've discussed here … Read Full Article about AR6 of the best
We are not reaching 1.5ºC earlier than previously thought
Guest commentary by Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, and Piers Forster Of all the troubling headlines emerging from the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WG1 report, one warning will surely dominate headlines in the next days and weeks: Earth is likely to reach … Read Full Article about We are not reaching 1.5ºC earlier than previously thought