There has been a lot of commentary about perceived disagreements among climate scientists about whether climate change is, or will soon, accelerate. As with most punditry, there is less here than it might seem. … Read Full Article about Much ado about acceleration
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More solar shenanigans*
Going back a few months, I spent a bit of time pointing out the strategy and nonsense in the various Willie Soon and company's efforts to blame current warming on solar activity. I specifically pointed out their cultish devotion to a single solar activity reconstruction (HS93); with an update from , and their increasingly elaborate efforts to create temperature series that correlate to it. … Read Full Article about More solar shenanigans*
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Unforced variations: Apr 2024
This month's open thread on climate topics. Lots more discussion about 2023, aerosols, heat content and imbalances to come I expect... Note, comments should be substantive even if you are arguing with who you perceive to be the worst person in the world. Comments that are mainly personal attacks … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: Apr 2024
Unforced variations: March 2024
The month's open thread on climate topics. More record monthly warmth, but only the second lowest Antarctic sea ice though (growing since 2023!). … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: March 2024
New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”
A new paper was published in Science Advances today. Its title says what it is about: "Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course." The study follows one by Danish colleagues which made headlines last July, likewise looking for early warning signals for approaching an … Read Full Article about New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”
Unforced variations: Feb 2024
This month's open thread for climate topics. This month's climate highlight will likely be the PACE launch at some point between Feb 6th and Feb 8th, that will hopefully provide information on aerosols and ocean color with more detail than ever before. Fingers crossed! A few notes on the blog … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: Feb 2024
Spencer’s Shenanigans
A recent sensible-sounding piece by Roy Spencer for the Heritage foundation is full of misrepresentations. Let's play spot the fallacy. … Read Full Article about Spencer’s Shenanigans
Not just another dot on the graph? Part II
Annual updates to the model-observation comparisons for 2023 are now complete. The comparisons encompass surface air temperatures, mid-troposphere temperatures (global and tropical, and 'corrected'), sea surface temperatures, and stratospheric temperatures. In almost every case, the addition of the … Read Full Article about Not just another dot on the graph? Part II
Not just another dot on the graph?
As the climate monitoring groups add an additional dot to their graphs this week, there is some disquiet among people paying attention about just how extraordinary 2023 really was. … Read Full Article about Not just another dot on the graph?
Annual GMSAT predictions and ENSO
For the last few years (since at least 2016), I've shared predictions for the next annual global mean surface air temperature (GMSAT) anomaly based on the long term trend and the state of ENSO at the start of the year. Generally speaking, this has been quite skillful compared to persistence or just … Read Full Article about Annual GMSAT predictions and ENSO
Unforced variations: Jan 2024
New year, new open thread on climate topics. Note that summaries and updates to include 2023 data will be posted on the surface temperature graphics page and model-observations comparison page over the next couple of weeks as the data becomes available. … Read Full Article about Unforced variations: Jan 2024
2023 appears to follow an upward trend in the North Atlantic/Caribbean named tropical cyclone count
This year’s (2023) tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic and Caribbean witnessed a relatively high number of named tropical cyclones: 20. In spite of the current El Niño, which tends to give lower numbers. But it appears to follow a historical trend for named tropical cyclones with an … Read Full Article about 2023 appears to follow an upward trend in the North Atlantic/Caribbean named tropical cyclone count