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Unforced Variations: July 2018

Filed under: — group @ 1 July 2018

This month’s open thread for climate science related topics. The climate policy open thread is here.

307 Responses to “Unforced Variations: July 2018”

  1. 301

    The UAH update for July is out in the form of the Roy Spencer ‘latest temps’ update–as always, first in the monthly ‘update parade.’ And the number is–0.32 C. That’s up sharply over the last couple of months (IIRC, June was 0.21, but don’t quote me on that), but isn’t really ‘crazy warm.’

    It makes me wonder a little if us ‘warmists’ have been rhetorically over-egging our warm beer a bit. As I’ve said previously, the global anomalies during the various heat-related (and sometimes, as in Japan, precipitation-related) disasters of the last month haven’t seemed to me to be all that dramatic on a global scale, even though some of the local records set have been pretty eye-popping, and though there have been quite a few such, at widely distributed parts of the world.

    Of course, this number *is* UAH, which is generally somewhat in a world of its own. But UAH also tends to be more variable than the instrumental data, so one might think that if July, as a heat-wave month on a global scale, were exhibiting an unforced variation on the warm side, then UAH might emphasize that more than, say, GISTEMP. I’ll be watching with interest as the other datasets update.

    On another topic, it looks as if there’s some acceleration in the ice-loss rate as we enter the ‘home stretch’ of the icemelt season:

    I’d like to cross-check with the UAH zonal anomaly for July, but UAH main page hasn’t updated yet, so the more granular July data remain a mystery for the moment.

  2. 302

    A geology friend at SIU posted the following
    “It’s last minute AGU abstract time, and there appears to be no listing of sessions at the Fall Meeting’s website. It seems like I run into this problem every year. Anyone know where to find it? I would love to be done with this, but for inexplicable reasons, AGU makes the scientific program nearly impossible to find.”

    Anyone have that link, so that I could pass it along?

  3. 303
    S.B. Ripman says:

    Another factoid in the local press: “Death Valley recorded
    the hottest July ever on earth with an average night &
    day temp of 107.6!°

  4. 304
    Ron R. says:

    Note: I posted this to the Forced Variations thread but there was no indication that it posted (no comment that said “your post is awaiting moderation”) so I’m trying here to. Feel free to delete whichever.

    So, the news lately is that there’s not enough carbon dioxide on Mars to terraform it. Only like 1/50th the amount necessary, says NASA. Elon Musk disagrees and says there is. He said, she said, though I’d trust NASA’s word a lot more. Musk’s is obviously conflicted.

    Here’s a thought, Musk is a creative guy, what if he could build machines that can remove our unwanted atmospheric carbon, super-condense it, deliver it to Mars and release it there? If it could be done, he would go down in history as the guy who helped save one world while building another.

    Thus, maybe money could be doled out to him with this objective in mind (not that he really needs it. Anyone who has the cash to build underground freeways has money to burn).

    Question for the climate mathematicians out there: My knee jerk belief is that we generate way more than enough carbon on earth to carbonize Mars if it could be taken from our atmosphere. Is that true? If not, then perhaps we could supplement that with our reserves of fossil fuels. That would certainly make Big Energy happy I suspect. Only this time heating the world would be a good thing. So perhaps the first thing Musk could concentrate on would be terraforming, rather than his cart before the horse plan to colonize.

    One possible risk, though, might be that some impatient Mars preferring people might want to spend Earth’s living resources, such as forests etc., or non-living resources the living Earth depends on, to supply Mars. To put a stake in the heart of a living world to try to build a dead one. So I’d propose a clause that whatever resources are used, Earth is not harmed in any way, and that it’s survival is Paramount in any action taken. Thoughts?

  5. 305
    Mr. Know It All says:

    9 – gavin

    Thanks for the reminder about the bore hole. I forget about that. Maybe there should be a monthly bore hole for off-topic stuff, non-sense, BS, political stuff, etc. I’ll bet it would get more posts than all the other articles combined.


  6. 306
  7. 307
    JRClark says:

    “Death Valley, California just clinched the hottest month ever recorded on Planet Earth.”
    Average high: 121°F (49°C)
    Average low: 96°F (36°C)
    Average monthly temperature: 108°F (42°C)

    Which beats the previous record hot month… set by Death Valley, last year.

    QUICK!! Someone throw a snowball in Congress so climate change isn’t real!!!