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Unforced Variations: July 2021

Filed under: — group @ 2 July 2021

This month’s open thread for climate science. Probably a good time to discuss attribution for extreme heat, wildfires, hurricane intensity and intense precipitation.

186 Responses to “Unforced Variations: July 2021”

  1. 1
    Russell says:

    Extraordinary droughts tend to amplify the fire risks of public celebrations, by far the most hazardous of which is the day America lights up the the charcoal, andbreaks out the sparklers for the 4th of July

    https://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2021/07/year-fireworks-died.html

  2. 2
    MA Rodger says:

    The UAH TLT anomaly for June has been posted with a global anomaly of -0.01ºC, this down on the May anomaly of +0.08ºC and =2nd lowest monthly anomaly of the year-to-date. Previous 2021 UAH TLT monthly anomalies have sat in the range -0.05ºC to +0.20ºC.
    (I was myself anticipating a rise in the global anomaly for June as the tropical TLT anomaly [which mainly drives global wobbles after a short delay] had been showing signs of a strong rise. But of course this here is the trend-defying UAH record…)

    June 2021 was the 19th warmest June on the UAH record (so behind an impressive list – 1998, 2019, 2020, 2016, 2010, 2015, 1991, 2002, 2014, 2017, 2013, 2018, 1987, 2005, 2012, 2011, 1996 & 2007 – note there are but 43 Junes on the UAH record) and June 2021 sits =192nd on the highest all-month monthly anomaly list (out of 511).

    The first half of 2021 comes in as the 12th warmest on the UAH record and the coolest first-half since 2014.

  3. 3
    Mr. Know It All says:

    Southwestern US getting Monsoon relief from drought:

    https://www.weather.gov/media/abq/Briefings/2021MonsoonOutlook.pdf

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/monsoon-thunderstorms-wreak-havoc-at-zion-national-park/969707

    https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2021-06-24-southwest-monsoon-drought

    They had some HOT days last week in the great PNW. Glad that is over! Back to normal now. It was caused by a “heat dome” according to the news reports. Down in Portland, they claimed the temperature at the airport hit 115 or 116 F. Of course that is false – the airport is a roughly 1 mile radius pad of concrete – so the heat island effect blew that one up by 5-10 degrees at least. And the Portland records are of course affected by the approximately 15-mile radius pad of concrete called the Portland metro area.

    Gavin says the heat is attributed to AGW – scroll down for his quote:

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/heat-wave-dome-2021-seattle-portland-weather/

    The previous record of 107 stood since 1965, but was nearly matched in the 1930s:

    https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2021/06/107-degrees-or-102-custom-house-airport-used-to-battle-for-portlands-official-highs-during-heat-waves.html

    Heat is not a big killer in the US, but it does get some each year. CDC claims around 700 annually – not too bad out of a population of over 400 million (that’s closer to the real number than the number stated by the guvmint). Of course, it would get a LOT more if air conditioning weren’t so widespread here.

    https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2021/07/how-extreme-heat-kills-700-in-the-us-annually.html

    Be safe on the 4th of July. Don’t blow your finger off!

  4. 4
    John Pollack says:

    Qeshm Island Int’l Airport July 3 06UTC Temperature 40C, dew point 36C,
    WET BULB TEMPERATURE 36.7C.

  5. 5
    Carbomontanus says:

    @Dr. R. Climate & al

    Discussion of extreme heat, wilfires, hurricane intennsity and intense precipitation is a relevant suggestion for theese days.

    in 2016 we saw wideo of real beach bunnies bathing boldly in the Jenesej river, that is frozen most of the year.

    And in Norway we see them bathing boldly and proudly also under the midnight sun, where more than 30 Celsius is reported. But that is hardly abnormal in mid summer. More phaenomenal is that we still see a lot of snow in the higher mountains next by, due to Lapse- rate.

    We just gave a flush on the stove as we allways do after saturday bathing, and now we had the inverse- current phaenomenon in the chimney, that fills the room with smoke before it turns around and goes up the right way.

    It is a late- summer phaenomenon. Remainintg air in the chimney is dry and cool and heavier, but outdoor and in the room it is warmer and more moist and thus lighter.

    Sometmes it even smells chimney from the stoves if has not been given a regular flush for a while. But a flush on the stove even cools and driesn up the house and gives a better room climate if you also open windows or any air intake low down at the same time.

    All this is surely known also in the US on pioneering level, if not fortgotten inn recent time because of big coal and heavy sales promotion of air condition and electricity.

    It is the physics of cheapest and best possible heating ventilationn and air conditioning in an Igloo, a Teepee, a Lavvo, or in a mongo0lian or tibetan “Murt”, the very best livingroom climate in cool and sub- arctic climates, even with very hot summers.

    It gets conscidered heated and ventilated like a hot air balloon with tight roof, with chimney and stove in the middle and the fireplace as low as possible.

    warm in the center and cool at the walls and windows, and a toroidal current that ventilates and dries up the room.

    The rather low entrance door may then remain open like in a hot air ballooon because of higher pressure inside, just with a traditional light wind- shield.

    The sensitive, rather tropical flowers then trives quite much better in the windows during the dark winters, and can be set out under open sky for summer vacation.

    In coldest Siberia they glue layers of Pravda carefully up under the roof and over all possible leaks in the corners higher up. Then the door can remain open and you save fuel.

    It is also the way that whasps and honeybees do their very best for natural & efficient air condition and ventilation in tempered climates, thriving their very best to make for themselves a hot air balloon for living.

  6. 6
    Killian says:

    One of your serious problems is that there ain`t no such evidence of large or massive extraterrestrial impacts in European holocene sediments.

    Are you choosing ignorance of new data or did you just not read what was posted? 1. The claim is not of a large or massive impacts. 2. The claim is of fragments over a wide area, including at least from parts of North America to parts of Europe. 3. It’s a new paper, so who gives a damn what was said decades ago?

    I guarantee you this finding will hold up. I knew it would when it was first proposed because certain facts simply cannot be contraindicated, thus, they must be factored in.

    Your Eiffel event, though, I had never once heard of until you mentioned it, so I am not sure hiw important it is. And I don’t care. I a mot married to the idea the YD was caused by a single factor. It matter not at all to me whether it was one factor or 30. If this Eiffel thing is also a factor, well fine by me. If not, fine by me. You, apparently, very much need it to be swingle-origin (given you have flatly ignored that I am speaking of NEW scientific findings, not old ones.)

    Well, good luck with that. Moving on.

  7. 7
    Rob Bradley says:

    MA Rogers: Global lukewarming?

  8. 8
    MA Rodger says:

    The Arctic sea ice had managed to be a particularly poor record-breaker through the first half of 2021 Although it got very close on a few occasions, it failed to register even one day of ‘least SIE for time of year’ from January through June (in the JAXA SIE RECORD), not a unique achievement but very uncommon. The most remarkable thing about SIE Jan-June appeared to be the large wobbles in SIE through the start of the melt season (which attracted some discussion here on previous months’ UV threads).

    The first half of the year over, and 2021 has now recorded its first two days of ‘least SIE for time of year’ and that at a point when 2020 was in the process of setting a strong record SIE low, reaching 630,000 sq km below all previous years by the third week in July. This resulted from strong meltiness in the seas North of Siberia, a situation so-far repeating itself this year. (Regional SIE graphs here.) By this-time-last-year SIE was 90,000 sq km below all previous years, with 2021 now exceeding that by 40,000 sq km.

    Of course, the world generally sees no further than the annual minimum SIE which is some 10 weeks away and a lot can happen between now and then.

    A graphic of year-on-year JAXA SIE anomalies thus with the annual cycle removed (see Graph One on this page) perhaps shows the 2021 situation most clearly.

  9. 9
    Oxyaena says:

    I’m curious, what’s with the hectic posting schedule? The last post was almost two months ago now. I get it y’all are busy tho, so I completely understand if that’s the case.

  10. 10
    CCHolley says:

    RTE. Mr. Know Nothing @3

    They had some HOT days last week in the great PNW. Glad that is over! Back to normal now. It was caused by a “heat dome” according to the news reports. Down in Portland, they claimed the temperature at the airport hit 115 or 116 F. Of course that is false – the airport is a roughly 1 mile radius pad of concrete – so the heat island effect blew that one up by 5-10 degrees at least. And the Portland records are of course affected by the approximately 15-mile radius pad of concrete called the Portland metro area.

    So the previous Portland record high was set in 1965 at 107 degrees. Hmmmm, wasn’t there a heat island effect then? Of course there was. Apples to apples, record smashed by 9 degrees.

    How about Quillayute, Washington, on the Pacific Ocean that reached an all-time record of 110 degrees Fahrenheit beating their old record by 11 degrees. Heat island effect there? Doubt it.

    Or how about Lytton Canada shown in the tweet above?

    Lytton, British Columbia reached 116 degrees Fahrenheit (46.1C) on June 27, setting a new all-time heat record for ALL OF CANADA! That record lasted for all of one day, as the temperature soared to 118 degrees (47.5C) on June 28. And THAT record lasted for all of one day as it reached a shocking 121 degrees (49.5C) on June 29. — NOAA

    That 121 degrees broke the old previous record by 22 degrees!

    BTW, Lytton has about 250 people–heat island effect? I don’t think so.

  11. 11
    Mike says:

    MKIA at 3: utter nonsense as usual. Lurkers should disregard, MKIA is not an honest or reliable source. I will let that stand as my review of MKIA for the month of July. If MKIA posts something that is not nonsense, I will make not of that.

    CO2?

    Daily CO2

    Jul. 4, 2021 = 417.64 ppm
    Jul. 4, 2020 = 415.53 ppm

    co2.earth

    Cheers

    Mike

  12. 12
    Steven Emmerson says:

    John Pollack @ 4 wrote

    WET BULB TEMPERATURE 36.7C.

    I’m amazed but not surprised. Once upon a time I lived in Kuwait. The Persian/Arabian Sea is, basically, a warm bathtub. Every year some people (mostly imported laborers) would die because they couldn’t cool themselves.

  13. 13
    Carbomontanus says:

    @ Dr.Killian

    The heaven is falling down on us all the time.

    They have allways known that in the Royal Society, so it is nothing new.

    The National Museums are full of proofs for it.

    If “new research” or experience begins to tell and publish around that it suddenly began to fall down 12600 years ago in “bits” and in pieces, and fell further on in “bits” and pieces until about 11600 years ago when the heavens got empty or maybe got fixed better by someone up there who were responsible for it….

    …then it is not new reseaqrch or experience at all, esppecially not in Europe and further in Canada.

    Because “bits” of that story or those rumors and that fameous explaination can be found everywhere at any time.

  14. 14

    #10, CCH–

    And THEN Lytton was 90% destroyed by wildfire, as I expect many have already heard.

    https://www.bclocalnews.com/news/lytton-fire-shows-minimal-growth-in-past-day-bc-wildfire-service-2/

  15. 15
    Mr. Know It All says:

    10 – CCHOlley

    “Lytton, British Columbia reached 116 degrees Fahrenheit (46.1C) on June 27, setting a new all-time heat record for ALL OF CANADA! That record lasted for all of one day, as the temperature soared to 118 degrees (47.5C) on June 28. And THAT record lasted for all of one day as it reached a shocking 121 degrees (49.5C) on June 29. — NOAA

    That 121 degrees broke the old previous record by 22 degrees!”

    Nah, the previous record was 111.9 set in 1941 on 2 consecutive days, so only broke the old record by 9.1 degrees. (Wish I had one of those thermometers accurate to 0.1 F.) Lytton’s claim to fame is that it is the “Hot Spot” of Candada. They frequently have the hottest temps in Canada.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lytton,_British_Columbia#Climate

    https://www.google.com/maps/place/Lytton,+BC,+Canada/@50.233258,-121.581404,3a,75y,90t/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sAF1QipPgpMCX0UZAFXyh_429lE1V9Di57Jl0Or0tFhzB!2e10!3e12!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipPgpMCX0UZAFXyh_429lE1V9Di57Jl0Or0tFhzB%3Dw203-h152-k-no!7i2048!8i1536!4m5!3m4!1s0x548104def8a97acb:0x3c5d348aebaad428!8m2!3d50.233258!4d-121.581404

    https://www.google.com/maps/place/Lytton,+BC,+Canada/@50.233258,-121.581404,3a,75y,90t/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sAF1QipM8_Rj61wHwJUMF1r4l6PwzTeVfUSo3CK9Zy4DU!2e10!3e12!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipM8_Rj61wHwJUMF1r4l6PwzTeVfUSo3CK9Zy4DU%3Dw203-h152-k-no!7i4032!8i3024!4m5!3m4!1s0x548104def8a97acb:0x3c5d348aebaad428!8m2!3d50.233258!4d-121.581404

    BUT I will say that 121 is way too hot!!! We’d have to know the particulars of the weather station location to know if there was a heat island effect. Located too close to a parking lot, building, paved road, parked car, etc would qualify as heat island effect. It is very difficult in any town, to find a location not affected by surrounding heat absorbing/reflecting structures; it isn’t possible in a city to not have heat island effect. ;)

  16. 16
  17. 17
    Killian says:

    Re 13: Stop your nonsense, please.

  18. 18
    Killian says:

    16 chris says:
    5 Jul 2021 at 7:04 PM

    Global Warming Climate Impacts Taking up Speed https://climatestate.com/2021/07/06/global-warming-climate-impacts-taking-up-speed/ “The abrupt rise in temperature now being experienced in the Arctic has only been observed during the last ice age. During that time, analyses of ice cores revealed that temperatures over the Greenland Ice Sheet increased several times, between 10 to 12 degrees, over a 40 to 100-year period.”

    “We have looked at the climate models analyzed and assessed by the UN Climate Panel. Only those models based on the worst-case scenario, with the highest carbon dioxide emissions, come close to what our temperature measurements show over the past 40 years, from 1979 to today,” says Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen.

    As I have said since 2007, sensitivity *must* be at the high end to see the changes we are seeing, and the *fact* we have debilitated the ability of every part of the ecosystem to act as a brake, hysteresis, on the rate of change means changes *must* be faster than ever before.

    This is *obvious.* I mean, I had barely started paying attention to the science in 2007 and this jumped out at me immediately.

    Blinkers off, people. See what is, not what you wish to see or are trained to see.

    Not to be repetitive, but until people catch on, a thing must be repeated.

  19. 19
    Reality Check says:

    #3
    It rained so SW drought is no longer a problem. It’s been hot before so no problem in NW. Only 700 deaths/year by excess heat in USA so nothing to see here. But what I really want to know is why isn’t the ICE COLD ISLAND EFFECT taken into consideration when reporting on excessively LOW TEMPS temps in the Arctic and Antarctic too? They should be adjusted UP by at least 15 C surely?

    Good for the goose it’s good for the gander in amateur debating tournaments for know-Nothing Trolls.

    By Gavin RC … Extreme metrics
    What this shows first of all is that extreme heat waves, like the ones mentioned, are not just “black swans” – i.e. extremely rare events that happened by “bad luck”. They might look like rare unexpected events when you just focus on one location, but looking at the whole globe, as Hansen et al. did, reveals an altogether different truth: such events show a large systematic increase over recent decades and are by no means rare any more. At any given time, they now cover about 10% of the planet. What follows is that the likelihood of 3 sigma+ temperature events (defined using the 1951-1980 baseline mean and sigma) has increased by such a striking amount that attribution to the general warming trend is practically assured.
    https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/08/extreme-metrics/

    Increasing temperatures are likely to increase the number of heat-related deaths. Mortality risk increases by between 0.2 and 5.5 % for every 1 oC increase in temperature above a location-specific threshold.
    https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/heat-and-health/heat-and-health-assessment-published

    Heat Deaths can go from 700/yr to 70,000 almost over night
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave
    17 Sep 2010 … Moscow registered nearly 11000 deaths due to an unprecedented heatwave this summer
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-09-18/russian-heatwave-killed-11000-people/2265184
    The 2010 Northern Hemisphere summer heat waves included severe heat waves that impacted most of the United States, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, China, Hong Kong, North Africa and the European continent as a whole, along with parts of Canada, Russia, Indochina, South Korea and Japan during May, June, July, and August 2010.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Northern_Hemisphere_heat_waves
    Another Omega Block event just 2 years ago, with only 2500 excess deaths.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_heat_wave

    See, things have improved.
    Mmm, maybe not …
    June 24, 2021
    A blistering heat wave that has been enveloping eastern Europe nudged its way into western Russia this past week, challenging Moscow records that have stood for more than a century and forcing the city to face heat rarely felt in this region of the world. Preliminary temperature reports show the Russian capital reached 95 F (35 C) on Wednesday
    https://news.yahoo.com/120-record-jeopardy-moscow-sizzles-182314301.html

  20. 20
    Reality Check says:

    July 6th
    Nordic countries have registered near-record temperatures over the weekend, including highs of 34C (93.2F) in some places.

    The latest figures came after Finland’s national meteorological institute registered its hottest temperature for June since records began in 1844.

    Kevo, in Lapland, recorded heat of 33.6C (92.5F) on Sunday, the hottest day since 1914 when authorities registered 34.7C (94.5F), said the STT news agency. Several parts of Sweden also reported record highs for June.

    New Zealand experiences hottest (winter) June on record despite polar blast

    The high temperatures follow the record-breaking heatwave and wildfires that have caused devastation in parts of North America.

    The intense heatwave has killed 95 people in the US state of Oregon alone, its governor said on Sunday. Hundreds are believed to have died from the heat in the US north-west and south-western Canada.

    Experts and officials fear that the catastrophic conditions, fuelled by the climate crisis, will only get worse through the coming months.

    “So from that perspective, the high temperatures over Scandinavia are directly linked to what happened in North America.”

    At a national level, June 2021 was the third-hottest ever recorded in Sweden.

    more https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/06/heatwave-hits-nordic-countries-lapland-temperature-

    Lapland under extreme heat right now. 34.3°C at Banak, Norway
    This level of heat has NEVER BEEN observed above 70 degrees north LATITUDE in Europe before.
    Scandinavia has been in the oven for a while. A very hot June followed by a hot start to July. Widely 10-15°C hotter than average.
    https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1412157062960844800

  21. 21
    Piotr says:

    A frequent denier argument I have encountered after this heat wave was: “But when we pointed to the cold spell in Texas, haven’t you lectured us that “ local weather is not global climate“? And now you tell us that the LOCAL heat wave was caused by global warming???”

    If you encountered similar questions, my explanation perhaps may be of some use. If not, it wasn’t a wasted time – I’ll use it for one of my classes where I cover typical denier’s cliches. I may even use our KIA, Swallow or Victor, as actual specimens of that species.

    So here it goes: local weather extremes, being local and short compared to the time-scale of climate (say, 30 years), have negligible impact on the value of the long-term global average temperature (and I may actually put some numbers there, say: effect on global avg = local Dt* (% of global area made up by, say, Texas)*(duration of weather event/30 years).

    So while local weather extremes have negligible contribution to the value of the long-term global average temperature, it is not true the other way around – the global warming can affect local weather extremes.

    An analogy: from the fact individual soldier does not have a significant impact on the outcome of a war (WWII, Civil War), we can’t conclude that the war cannot have a dramatic impact on that individual soldier.

    Global warming increases the frequency of heat waves in two ways:

    a) effect of the higher mean: shifting the Gaussian distribution to the right: heat waves are stronger, because the same departure starts from a higher mean. However, this effect is asymmetric – it weakens cold spells, since they depart downward from a higher mean.

    b) effect of the increased departures from the mean – thicker both tails of the distribution – climate change through affecting the movement and blocking of air masses, may increase the local departures from the current mean in both directions

    So for heat waves – the a) and b) ADD to each other
    for cold spells – b) is WEAKENED by a)

    Now something about attribution:

    Extreme heat waves could happen without climate change, but their increased strength points to the climate change. To use again my war analogy – although a given man could lose his leg also in peace-time, if you suddenly see an unusually high number of young men who lost their legs recently – a war becomes a distinct possibility.

    And I may add a link to: Robert Rohde: “I estimate that Portland International Airport reaching 112 °F (44.4 °C) is roughly 4.3 standard deviations above the historical mean. Historically, we’d expect a deviation that large to happen on roughly one day out of every 350 years.

    In other words, WITHOUT climate change, the probability of such a LARGE heat wave is extremely low: probability of z>=4.3 is “1 day/(350*365 days)”.

    I.e.: not bloody likely!

  22. 22
    Jimmy says:

    Hey as this is an open forum I want to know if the recent findings about arctic ice here –>

    https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2021/jun/arctic-sea-ice-thinning-faster-expected

    … has implications for what they call the first blue water event. That is – does it mean the ice cap disappearing sooner ?

    I believe the most recent estimates, including by the author herself, have been somewhere around 2035, so does this research bring the date forward ?

    thanks

  23. 23
    Ray Ladbury says:

    Mr. KIA: “Be safe on the 4th of July. Don’t blow your finger off!”

    Luckily, both middle ones are still intact, so I can respond appropriately to you. ;-)

  24. 24

    KIA is always too facile with his dismissals. Previous records set in July 1941 were during the middle of a 3-year El Nino run, which was one of the longest duration El Nino episodes in the modern era.

    Granted we still have a ways to go in getting the attribution of extremes more precise, as climate science still can’t predict ENSO with the same accuracy as tidal forecasts. Once that is improved we should be able to better compensate temperature readings for the impact of El Nino events, and also any standing-wave events. Take a look at the wavenumber=4 standing wave pattern that encircled the world for most of June (courtesy of K. Kornhuber)

    https://youtu.be/MWBCaLhhlcM

  25. 25
    William Jackson says:

    #15 LOL…. Just cannot stop with the nonsense!

  26. 26
    Richard the Weaver says:

    Words matter. If everyone calls him MrCUB and treats him accordingly he WILL go away.

    Time for a test of wills. And just like the Senate, it is to the death.

    Agreed?

  27. 27
    Richard the Weaver says:

    Is the most damaging axiom in the climate fight that it is WRONG for folks to consider the source of a claim?

    That is batshit crazy. Yep, a claim MUST stand on its own merit, but it is moronic to dig equally into the claims of a PhD and a lunatic ranting in the street.

    Yet another way you guys get owned. Who would set themselves up like that???

    Stop saying stupid and irrelevant but technically correct stuff. And when GOPpers bring up stupid and irrelevant but technically correct stuff don’t engage as if they are being serious. They (or more accurately their handlers) aren’t being serious. So the best response is to laugh in their face.

  28. 28
    nigelj says:

    I thought this was interesting: “Deciphering the rise and fall of Antarctic sea ice extent”

    https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-deciphering-the-rise-and-fall-of-antarctic-sea-ice-extent

  29. 29
    chris says:

    Studies add to concern about climate tipping
    Tipping found in models of the Gulf Stream and North American mid-latitude wind systems add to the growing concern that anthropogenic climate change might be abrupt and irreversible
    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2021-07/uoc–sat070521.php

    Related
    Can chaos and intransitivity lead to interannual variability?
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1990.t01-2-00005.x

    Re 18 Killian

    Hansen: Additional warming, due to slow feedbacks including loss of ice and spread of flora over the vast high-latitude land area in the Northern Hemisphere, approximately doubles equilibrium climate sensitivity. https://twitter.com/MarkCranfield_/status/1411467263329411072/photo/1

    ps. I am not up to date on how the current sensitivity is considered, but my assumption is there are tipping points and fast episodes to the other state, imho the “state phase stage.”

    From above eurekalter link, “These results indicate that climate tipping is an imminent risk in the Earth System. Even the safe operating space of 1.5 or 2.0 degrees above present generally assumed by the IPCC might not be all that safe. According to the precautionary principle, we must consider abrupt and irreversible changes to the climate system as a real risk – at least until we understand these phenomena better,” says Professor Michael Ghil.”

  30. 30
    Reality Check says:

    Climate change made 2020 Siberian heatwave 600 times more likely – study

    The authors of the study say the Siberian heat would happen less than once in every 80,000 years without human interference.

    Andrew Ciavarella, a lead author of the research and senior detection and attribution scientist at the Met Office, said the findings were staggering. “This research is further evidence of the extreme temperatures we can expect to see more frequently around the world in a warming global climate. Importantly, an increasing frequency of these extreme heat events can be moderated by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”

    Scientists say the human fingerprint has rarely, if ever, been clearer. “This is the largest signal we have seen,” said Friederike Otto, the acting director of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute and a co-lead of the World Weather Attribution initiative. “This study shows again just how much of a game-changer climate change is with respect to heatwaves. As emissions continue to rise, we need to think about building resilience to extreme heat all over the world, even in Arctic communities – which would have seemed nonsensical not very long ago.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/15/climate-change-made-siberian-heatwave-600-times-more-likely-study

    Siberian heatwave of 2020 almost impossible without climate change

    https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/siberian-heatwave-of-2020-almost-impossible-without-climate-change/

  31. 31
    Mr. Know It All says:

    19 – Reality Check
    “But what I really want to know is why isn’t the ICE COLD ISLAND EFFECT taken into consideration when reporting on excessively LOW TEMPS temps in the Arctic and Antarctic too? They should be adjusted UP by at least 15 C surely?”

    The heat island effect is taken into account because man has altered the landscape such that a great deal of heat absorbing/radiating materials are exposed to the sun creating unnaturally hot conditions around those materials. In cities, there are so many such materials that the effect on measured temperature cannot be escaped – the heat drifts around all over the landscape so that measured temperatures are artificially high.

    In contrast, the polar regions, except for the few towns, are largely unaltered by man so unnatural heat islands are rare. I suppose if there were a bowl-shaped land area created by man, it could create a “Cold Island” (your term) where cold air sinks to the bottom becoming super-cooled. Although heat islands in polar regions are rare, measured temperatures in towns of polar regions may very well be affected by local man-made objects, furnace vents, power plants, etc. Hope this clarifies for you.

    Your story on 95F in Moscow sounds bad until you read the next paragraph:
    “On Tuesday, parts of Moscow reached 94.5 degrees F (34.7 degrees C), according to an official reading by the Russian weather service Roshydromet, which ties the all-time June record set in 1901.”

    1901. That’s funny.
    Then you look at the photo of the 35C reading on the building and notice that it is next to a concrete square or street that is in the sun. Hilarious. I don’t doubt it was hot – temps above 86F are not uncommon in Moscow, with the records being 100.8 and 102.2F in the 2010 heat wave you mentioned.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow#Climate

    I am certain that if the quasi-communists of Oregon can handle 116F last week, that the full-blown communists in Moscow will be just fine.

  32. 32
    chris says:

    The Climate State may Tip at 1.5 or 2 C of Global Temperature Rise https://climatestate.com/2021/07/07/the-climate-state-may-tip-already-with-1-5-or-2-c-of-temperature-rise/

    Feat two talks with Michael Ghil

  33. 33
    MA Rodger says:

    The Copernicus ERA5 re-analysis has been posted for June with a global SAT anomaly of +0.21ºC, down on the May anomaly which remains the the highest anomaly of 2021 so-far. The Jan-Jun 2021 monthly anomalies sit in the range +0.06ºC to +0.26ºC.

    June 2021 is the 5th warmest June on the ERA5 record (behind 2019, 2020, 2016 & 2018) and June 2021 is the 71st highest anomaly in the all-month EAR5 record.

    The first half of 2021 averages +0.19ºC and is the 7th warmest start-to-the-year on the ERA5 record.
    … … … . Average Jan-Jun …. Annual ave … .. Annual ranking
    2016 … … … +0.51ºC … … … +0.44ºC … … … … 2nd
    2020 … … … +0.50ºC … … … +0.47ºC … … … … 1st
    2017 … … … +0.38ºC … … … +0.34ºC … … … … 4th
    2019 … … … +0.38ºC … … … +0.40ºC … … … … 3rd
    2018 … … … +0.26ºC … … … +0.26ºC … … … … 5th
    2010 … … … +0.20ºC … … … +0.13ºC … … … … 7th
    2021 … … … +0.19ºC
    2015 … … … +0.17ºC … … … +0.26ºC … … … … 6th
    2007 … … … +0.11ºC … … … +0.04ºC … … … … 13th
    1998 … … … +0.09ºC … … … +0.02ºC … … … … 15th
    (For comparison, as reported @2 above, the trend-defying UAH TLT record saw last month as the 19th warmest June on record and =192nd warmest on the all-month record with Jan-Jun the 12th warmest start to a Year.)

  34. 34
    Lawrence McLean says:

    I have been wondering if the warming effect of vapor trials is more significant in the Winter than in the Summer. If it is the case it may go some way to explaining why recent winters have been somewhat cooler than in other recent years. The Pandemic has caused a significant reduction in flights. Many people in parts of Australia are noticing that this Winter is cooler than it has been for many years. However, not where I live. I am interested to hear what Climate Scientist have to say regarding my thoughts…

  35. 35
    Richard the Weaver says:

    Killian: Not to be repetitive, but until people catch on, a thing must be repeated.

    RtW: Why? People learn after-the-fact. Repeat it or join a mime troup, it makes no difference. Humanity will react to climate change’s lion based not on intellectual sharpness but the feel of said lion’s teeth.

  36. 36
    Mike says:

    How’s the weather? It’s been hot.

    I guess the heat dome turned North America into a heat island in June.

    “North America endured the hottest June on record last month, according to satellite data that shows temperature peaks lasting longer as well as rising higher.

    The heat dome above western Canada and the north-west United States generated headlines around the world as daily temperature records were shattered across British Columbia, Washington and Portland.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/07/north-america-endured-hottest-june-on-record?utm_term=7923b886704b19a205753deb04f5ead2&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayUS&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=GTUS_email

    It looks silly at this point to argue that global warming is not serious and that this has become an emergency, but some folks will argue those points.

    What’s causing all this heat?

    Daily CO2

    Jul. 6, 2021 = 417.68 ppm
    Jul. 6, 2020 = 415.45 ppm

    co2.earth

    I think it has something to do with the astounding human pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere.

    I could be wrong about all that. I hear that some I have it wrong on occasion.

    Cheers

    Mike

  37. 37
    Richard the Weaver says:

    MrCUB: The heat island effect is taken into account because

    RtW: MrCUB is too stupid to recognize a joke (amazing since mirrors exist, eh?).

    To elaborate:

    MrCUB’s lie about the heat island effect not being considered by scientists was repulsive. This opened an opportunity for humor, which the commenter took (sorry, don’t remember who) by wondering why MrCUBs don’t also whine like little girls about the inverse: scientists don’t take proper account of the ‘cold island effect’ either!

    Lies are lies but some of the best jokes, like the one you just dissed, tell the truth with artful non-misleading untruths.

  38. 38
    Killian says:

    New research applies proper accounting to the food industry and highlights the absolutely massive effect it has on climate. Climate scientists will need to update their models and have to get serious about analyzing legit regenerative practices and incorporating those onto models, too.

    By shifting to truly regenerative practices – not the semi-regenerative crap that is getting all the attention – we could reduce emissions by 1/3 within the five years or so it typically takes to go from chem ag to fully regenerative. Even better? The effect would be multiplied by the *fact* regenerative systems sequester carbon, and fully regenerative systems can sequester carbon at 1%/year in the SOCs. Go regenerative, and I am speaking only of farming, not shifting lifestyles to regenerative, and we’re looking at a 50%-ish reduction in emissions between reductions and sequestration.

    Hate to say I told ya so, except I don’t. Had people been listening the last 13 years, the world would *already* be halfway to NetZero.

    Their paper, recently published in Environmental Research Letters, found that the global food system was responsible for 16 billion metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions in 2018, or a third of all global emissions that year. This is a sharp contrast to the more narrowly defined agriculture sector of the IPCC’s categories for greenhouse gas inventories, which accounted for 5.3 billion metric tons in 2018, or just a tenth of the total.

    https://civileats.com/2021/06/30/the-food-systems-carbon-footprint-has-been-vastly-underestimated/

  39. 39
    Victor says:

    And they call it “science.” Oh my.

    As we all know, global temperatures are higher now than at any time since the Medieval Warm Period at least. The evidence is beyond dispute and NO ONE, not even the most adamant skeptic, would deny it. So why wouldn’t we expect to see record-breaking heat waves, if not everywhere, then at least in certain regions of our unusually warm planet?

    Does this mean “climate change” is responsible? Depends on what you mean by “climate change.” If all you mean is a change of climate then yes, I suppose you could say it is. However, the phrase “climate change” has come to have a very special meaning in our very troubled time, because it now means much more than simply a change in the climate, but a very specific type of change, prompted by the burning of fossil fuels (aka CO2 emissions). There is thus a very troubling tendency found just about everywhere the term is used, to take any evidence that the climate has changed (in this case, warmed) as evidence that the change is, moreover, due to rising CO2 emissions. Sorry, but that does NOT follow — and I find it both surprising and disturbing that people calling themselves scientists are turning evidence of rising temperatures into evidence of something totally different.

    Sure. It’s hotter than usual. We all know that. So yes, as a result we are seeing some instances of extreme heat in certain places. What does that tell us about the influence of CO2 on the world’s climate? Absolutely nothing!

  40. 40

    re: “Can chaos and intransitivity lead to interannual variability?”

    Should take a look at this recent article which shows that controlled forcing may lead to more predictability on an ordinarily chaotic system. The basic idea is that the forcing can guide the result, much like a broom can stand on its end given the right periodic compensation.

    Miyoshi, T. and Sun, Q.: Control Simulation Experiment with the Lorenz’s Butterfly Attractor, Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss. [preprint] in review, 2021,

    https://npg.copernicus.org/preprints/npg-2021-24

  41. 41
    Reality Check says:

    #31 “Then you look at the photo of the 35C reading on the building and notice that it is next to a concrete square or street that is in the sun. Hilarious.”

    What’s hilarious is 1) your desperation to argue against a joke, and 2) to be assuming that where a temperature reading sign is being displayed is PRECISELY where the air temperature reading is being taken from. https://news.yahoo.com/120-record-jeopardy-moscow-sizzles-182314301.html
    Why anyone would be so naive/gullible or presumptuous to assume (or argue) that image is credible and actually taken on that day in Moscow because a news media outlet suggest it is, is mind-boggling silly and anti-scientific anti-reason to it’s core.

    Quite hilarious and par for the course. Looks like no one here sees you as being the sharpest needle in the haystack for good reasons. Your only claims to fame here is consistency and persistence. And being wrong. Bravo.

  42. 42
    Reality Check says:

    #31 “I am certain that if the quasi-communists of Oregon can handle 116F last week…”

    You’re certain about that?

    Hundreds of people died in Oregon and elsewhere because of this extreme heatwave. This tells everyone everything they need to know about your questionable values, selfish priorities and utter lack of credibility.

  43. 43
    Reality Check says:

    #37 it’s also true that the record temperature reports out of Lytton are highly questionable because every know-it-all already knows that a major driver of the heat island effect are burning buildings and the surrounding forests going up in smoke.

    Not to mention that the prevailing background air temperatures during the day and the night are what actually creates any urban heat island effect in the first place.

    So if it wasn’t already hotter … there wouldn’t be any HIE to begin with! And global coral reefs wouldn’t be getting bleached in underwater heatwaves at the same time.

    This is why reality is what it is. Science is kind of like a delayed news service. Keeping us up to date long after the events. :-P

  44. 44
    nigelj says:

    Regarding Victor @39: please borehole this utter crap and strawman idiocy. It will derail discussion from the main subject. Which is the intention.

  45. 45
    nigelj says:

    Richard the Weaver @26

    “Words matter. If everyone calls him MrCUB and treats him accordingly he WILL go away.”

    Bet you he won’t. He obviously works for a lobby group. Hes probably paid to fill his quota of daily denalist BS. I don’t understand why you don’t get this.

  46. 46
    Ray Ladbury says:

    And here comes Weaktor to announce to the world that he is still an innumerate idiot.

  47. 47
    MA Rodger says:

    Paul Pukite (@whut) @40,
    It is an interesting idea that a numerical experiment showing the ‘Lorenz System’ can be controlled (held in one state) using “a perturbation size less than only 3 % of the observation error” can lead a bunch of grown adults to claim:-

    “We anticipate our idealized CSE [control simulation experiment] to be a starting point for realistic CSE using the real-world NWP [numerical weather prediction] systems, toward possible future applications to reduce weather disaster risks.”

    But then it may be seen as a banal idea for those more worldly than I, folk like the much-traveled Lemuel Gulliver.

  48. 48

    KIA 31: I am certain that if the quasi-communists of Oregon can handle 116F last week

    BPL: Don’t use a word if you don’t know what it means. No one in Oregon is a “Communist” unless there are some aging CPUSA members out there.

  49. 49
    Killian says:

    35 Richard the Weaver says:
    7 Jul 2021 at 10:06 AM

    Killian: Not to be repetitive, but until people catch on, a thing must be repeated.

    RtW: Why? People learn after-the-fact. Repeat it or join a mime troup, it makes no difference. Humanity will react to climate change’s lion based not on intellectual sharpness but the feel of said lion’s teeth.

    Duh. Said it years ago. Still needs saying because “people” are not a monolith. Different strokes.

    And, people need to have some idea what to do once they clue in.

  50. 50

    V 39: It’s hotter than usual. We all know that. So yes, as a result we are seeing some instances of extreme heat in certain places. What does that tell us about the influence of CO2 on the world’s climate? Absolutely nothing!

    BPL: For once, Victor is right! The fact that the world’s climate is heating does not prove CO2 is responsible! The evidence for that lies elsewhere, in the physics of radiative transfer, observational evidence for the increased greenhouse effect, and statistical analysis. Good call, Victor!

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