The evolution of radiative forcing bar-charts

Namely, an assessment of confidence, and the addition of aerosol forcings, while lumping the well-mixed gases all together. There is also the addition of the non-anthropogenic solar term. The figure was updated in 1998 and 2000 by Hansen and colleagues:

These updates added land use/land cover changes to albedo, decadal trends in volcanoes, and (in 2000) made the subtle point that the greenhouse effect from CFCs was offset a little by the impact CFCs were having on the ozone layer. An analogous diagram was very prominent in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment report (TAR):

As with the SAR version, the confidence levels are present, there has been a switch from 1850 as a baseline in the SAR version, to 1750 in order to capture the beginning of the industrial rise in the GHGs, and again additional items were included: some aerosol related (sulphates, mineral dust, biomass burning, carbonaceous aerosols (incl. black carbon)), and two associated with aviation (via contrails and enhanced cirrus cloud formation). Concurrently, the Hansen et al (2001) version:

included even more details – the effect of black carbon on snow, nitrate aerosols, and an enhancement of the solar effect via ozone changes.

In the 2007 AR4 SPM, the main innovation was to rotate the axes by 90ยบ and to add a bit more colour:

Though stratospheric water vapour makes a comeback, and the indirect effect of black carbon on snow makes an entrance for IPCC. In the AR5 SPM though, something more interesting happened…

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References

  1. J. Hansen, M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, and V. Oinas, "Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 97, pp. 9875-9880, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.170278997