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A multidecadal (50-80 year timescale) pattern of North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere variability whose existence has been argued for based on statistical analyses of observational and proxy climate data, and coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (“AOGCM”) simulations. This pattern is believed to describe some of the observed early 20th century (1920s-1930s) high-latitude Northern Hemisphere warming and some, but not all, of the high-latitude warming observed in the late 20th century. The term was introduced in a summary by Kerr (2000) of a study by Delworth and Mann (2000).
Fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model of the three-dimensional global climate. See also ‘General Circulation Model (GCM)’.
Approach to reconstructing a target large-scale climate field from predictors employing multivariate regression methods. CFR methods have been applied both to filling spatial gaps in early instrumental climate data sets, and to the problem of reconstructing past climate patterns from ‘climate proxy’ data.
Climate ‘proxies’ are sources of climate information from natural archives such as tree rings, ice cores, corals, lake and ocean sediments, tree pollen, or human archives such as historical records or diaries, which can be used to estimate climate conditions prior to the modern period (e.g. mid 19th century to date) during which widespread instrumental measurements are available. Proxy indicators typically must be calibrated against modern instrumental information to yield a quantitative reconstruction of past climate.