Has Pacific Northwest snowpack declined? Yes.
There has been a bit of a flap here at the University of Washington over the state of the snowpack in United States Pacific Northwest region. The Seattle city mayor, Greg Nickels (a well known advocate for city-based CO2 reduction initiatives) wrote in an Op-Ed piece in the Seattle Times that
The average snowpack in the Cascades has declined 50 percent since 1950 and will be cut in half again in 30 years if we don't start addressing the problems of climate change now. That snow not only provides our drinking water, it powers the hydroelectric dams that keep our lights on.
The number "50 percent decline" apparently comes from a statement in an Oregon State University report in 2004 signed by many Northwest Scientists. This is not actually the best estimate for average snowpack decline, according to published work by Phil Mote, of Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington. Mote reviewed the Oregon report back in 2004 and pointed out that the 50% figure was erroneous. Mote's 2003 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, highlighted in Science a few years ago, cited losses "as great as 60%" in some locations. Subsequent work (Mote et al., 2005) attempted to quantify change in total snowpack for the Cascades, and arrived at 15-30% for the period 1950-1997. This remains the best estimate, even when including the time period up to the present. Furthermore, this number represents measurements at many different elevations. If high elevation stations are excluded, the declines are generally larger, as would be expected if the chief culprit is increasing temperature, rather than declining snowfall.
So why the fuss? Well, the media can't seem to get enough when there is apparent controversy over something. Both the local and national media were thus quick to jump on the "story" when another UW staff member, Mark Albright, sought to correct the 50% number in a series of emails to the Mayor's office, among other places. Unfortunately, Albright didn't simply provide the corrected information, but set up a web site entitled "The Myth of the Vanishing Cascade Mountain Snowpack", with the very clear message that snowpack has not declined at all. Beyond the appearance of a controversy, this makes for a good newspaper story because it appears to cast doubt on Mote’s credibility. This is rather important given that Mote is Washington’s “State Climatologist” and is also the lead author on the chapter on the cryosphere in the upcoming IPCC Fourth Assessment report.
So has Pacific Northwest snowpack declined? Emphatically yes. I say “emphatically yes” for three reasons. First, because Albright illustrates the supposed lack of a trend by comparing specific periods (e.g. 1940-1949 vs. 1997-2006), in which snowpack has increased in some locations. This is not very informative, because both the spatial and temporal variability is large, and any question of decline can only be correctly addressed using all the data together, and over a statistically significant time period (30 years or more would be preferred). According to a summary statement prepared by Dennis Hartman to try to clarify the situation for the media and government, the decline is quite evident when the analysis is done correctly. (Hartmann is currently Chair of the Atmospheric Sciences Department at the University of Washington).
Second, “yes”, because lost in the media focus on controversy over the exact number is the fact that even a 15% decline would be huge. You can get this smaller number by starting in 1940 rather than 1950. This isn’t really justified because low elevations are substantially undersampled before 1945. Using a starting point of 1950 gives you about 30%. Either way, these are big numbers, and represent anything but a trivial change for water resource planners, backcountry skiers, and fisherman (not to mention fish). (For those readers that might wish to look at the data themselves, the State Climatologist's Office has a rather nifty mapping and trend-analysis tool, here: http://www.climate.washington.edu/trendanalysis).
Third, “emphatically" because the snowpack will very likely continue to decline in the future. In his summary statement, Hartmann notes that “temperatures in the … Cascades will increase in the future as a result of global warming … and it is expected that this, by itself, should result in further decreases of snow … particularly at lower elevations.” Hartmann points out that it is less certain how precipitation will change in the future, and this could conceivably balance some or all of the increased spring time snow melt due to increasing temperatures. However, this is a pretty weak statement. It generally takes a very large increase in snowfall to offset small changes in temperature. Furthermore, precipitation is highly seasonal in this region, and an overall increase in temperature will, at a minimum, cause earlier snowmelt, even in the unlikely event that annually averaged total snowpack remains the same. This means less available water in summer, when fish, farmers, and hydroelectric dams most need it.
20 March 2007 at 4:06
You do not state whether this retreating snow matches the models, but I suspect not. Moreover, you seem to see the main danger of a melting snowpack as the lack of river water, but surely that will remain the same provided that the annual precipitation does not change. All that needs to be done is to build additional resevoirs to contain the same amount of water as that which was produced by the annual snow melt.
What you do not seem to be considering is that when the snow line rises the albedo will change, and since this ice retreat is global then the global albedo will be reduced leading to an increase in global mean temperature. This is what is causing global warming, and not the change in the radiating temperature of the tropopause, which satellites measurements have failed to find.
Most of the increased absorption and consequent warming of the air due to the increase in CO2 is happening close to the surface of the earth. Think of Beer’s Law. This is what causes the snow to melt. Lindzen is correct in that CO2 has little direct effect of global temperatures, but its indirect effect can cause and end ice ages.
Cheers, Alastair.
[Most of the increased absorption and consequent warming of the air due to the increase in CO2 is happening close to the surface of the earth. Think of Beer’s Law. This is what causes the snow to melt. Lindzen is correct in that CO2 has little direct effect of global temperatures, but its indirect effect can cause and end ice ages.
Cheers, Alastair.
[Response: Reservoirs! Why didn’t I think of that. Let’s see, the total land area we are talking about is, umm,,, wait a minute, how many $billions? Wait, I’ve got another idea! Let’ all just limit bathing to Tuesdays, and car washing to the 4th Tuesday of each month. What? That’ll damage the economy. Well then lets ship in snow from Switzerland? Oh, they don’t have any this year? Umm…
Look, I’m sorry for the sarcasm, but your explanation of global warming is ridiculous, which you can easily prove to yourself with the simplest energy balance model. I have zero doubt that Lindzen would agree with me. And your suggested solution to declining snowpack really is quite laughable. –eric ]
20 March 2007 at 5:27
That’s not a problem if the hydro dams dry up; just burn more coal.
20 March 2007 at 5:49
“Moreover, you seem to see the main danger of a melting snowpack as the lack of river water, but surely that will remain the same provided that the annual precipitation does not change. All that needs to be done is to build additional resevoirs to contain the same amount of water as that which was produced by the annual snow melt.”
It is exactly this don’t worry be happy there is no problem we can’t fix with technology, attitude that makes me really worry about those that advocate geo engineered solutions to problems that supposedly don’t even exist. “All that needs to be done…” I’m afraid that the mediators here might not allow my posting to be seen if I actually said what *I* think needs to be done and used the words I’d like to use, argh @#%&!!!!
20 March 2007 at 5:53
What’s all the hoo-ha? At AAAS Convention in February ‘05 Tim Barnett, on the basis of his paper presenting his models,–which batted .950–predicted dry summers in twenty years for all the major highlands and mountain chains across the planet. Later,–I think the summer of ‘05 –he said the rivers of the western U.S. wouldn’t be at risk because of the reservoirs, just as Alastair has it in Comment (1). As I understand it not one of the reservoirs has recovered much from the growing drought across the west. I know the Oglalla aquifer ain’t. What does puzzle me about my fellow members of “man wising-up”(homo sapiens) is their understanding of compound interest. When they invest in alternative heating supplies to transport heat out of a room to the outside of a house (air “conditioning”) they don’t consider the processes and their consequences. With Business As Usual for at least another five to ten years, here is a real good verifiable prediction: Despite the panic among Swiss Re actuaries, BUA insures that we seven billions will be halved by 2037. And I really, really, REELY hope I live to 105 to find my prediction falsified. Seeing as how we’re all of us embarked on the greatest uncontrolled experiment since we dropped from the tree, that”s the best I could come up with that’s in screaming distance of scienterrific method.
20 March 2007 at 5:58
Alastair.
Please forgive my very simple questions, I’m just trying to get this straight in my mind.
If this change in global albedo is what is causing global warming, how did the process get started? I understand that the ongoing process feeds itself but if the result is the cause, surely the result cannot start the cause in the first place?
20 March 2007 at 6:26
Can you give me an example of what around 30% reduction would mean on the ground for the flora/fauna or the average homeowner over time?
20 March 2007 at 6:35
Re #1:
Alastair,
Your logical reasoning is circular and, well, simply wrong. You said that the diminishing snowpack is due to global warming, and that global warming is due to diminishing snowpack (due to reduced albedo). What do you believe started this cycle? And, if your hypothesis were true, what would keep the melting/warming from continuing until the very last flake of snow is gone from every mountain?
20 March 2007 at 7:03
I would be interested to learn what the causes for this change are in atmospheric circulation that can be modeled. Certainly there is going to be more water circulating to land in a warmer atmosphere, but apparently less as snow in the Cascade region. Discussions that I have read for the eastern United States mention not necessarily less total snowfall but a shorter season so that early rains cause the snow to melt.
20 March 2007 at 7:20
OK, while we’re at it, I’ll jump on the “Pick on Alastair bandwagon, too. Think for a moment about the differences in runoff for snowpack and rain. Snowpack usually melts gradually over a period of month, whereas rainfall tends to saturate the ground and then run off all at once. Not only is rainfall more likely to cause erosion, followed by dry riverbeds, it is more likely to run off without recharging groundwater.
When one seeks to base an argument on ceteris paribus (all things being equal), it’s a good idea to think it through and make sure the ceteris are in fact paribus.
[Response: I don’t usually resort to sarcasm in my original response, above, but Alastair McDonald’s comment must surely rank as one of the most impressive displays of know-it-all-ness I’ve seen yet on RealClimate. He not only knows the cause, but he knows the solution to all our global warming concerns. Still, let’s make this the last “Pick on Alastair” comment. The thread is already hopelessly off topic already. -eric]
20 March 2007 at 8:53
Re #1
Rain run-off is very different from snow run-off. In my NW community, a heavy rain will produce a rapidly flowing turbulent creek or river, often too dirty for the filtration systems and often it requires water rationing. Snow melts at a more consistent rate and keeps the water running clean. Trying to replicate the snow melt run-off for all the rivers and creeks in the NW area currently supplying water to various communities would be a massive project. We’re not talking about a few big reservoirs located in easily accessible areas, but 100’s (often located in very difficult to access areas).
20 March 2007 at 9:15
To follow up on #9 - higher snow levels presumably mean more rain events for areas formerly covered in snow throughout the winter, resulting in saturated ground. Add to that an earlier melt of the snowpack that remains, and I believe that leads to an increases probability for floods. This is a concern where I live in SW Idaho (which, while not part of the Cascades, obviously, is still considered the Pac NW if you use the Egan definition of “anywhere a salmon swims” (or swam as the case may be). I am not sure about the dam issue - could dam operators adjust their operations to capture the earlier runoff? I suppose not, if that water is falling as rain and saturating the ground and not running off, as snowpack tends to do. Any clarification on this point would be appreciated…
[Response: Yes, all of this is correct. Obviously one could in principle try to capture more of the early season runoff, but existing reservoirs tend to get overfilled in spring around here. So we’d have to increase the size of existing reservoirs. — eric]
20 March 2007 at 9:28
I wasn’t necessarily talking about new reservoirs - I agree that would be silly, though our Governor thinks we should be building more of them to keep more of our water “in state.” What I hear out this way is that we could simply adjust the operations of existing dams to catch the earlier runoff, but that point is moot if the runoff does not happen or comes all at once. My point was there are no simple solutions…
[Response:Matt, my apologies; I edited my response to your last comment and we crossed in cyberspace. In any case, I agree with you.–eric]
20 March 2007 at 10:20
Re Philip’s #7
What I am saying is that man made CO2 is causing the snow to melt and that is causing global warming. In other words, global warming is an indirect consequence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. They are not the direct cause, in the way they are modeled by scientists. The models are wrong, and the effects of the increase carbon dioxide over the last century will be much more severe than is currently imagined/modelled.
Of course the full story is much more complicated than that. But keeping it simple, the models are based on the idea that when the surface temperature increases, then more infrared radiation is emitted to space, but that is not how the global temperature is regulated. When the surface temperature rises, eventually more clouds form that block solar radiation. This has been the case ever since the time of the faint young sun. In other words the surface temperture has been held at a level suitable for life for over three billion years by changes to the incoming solar radiation, not by changes to the outgoing infrared radiation.
20 March 2007 at 10:37
Hi Eric, The decreasing trend in snowpack is on the order of 15-30% from 1940/50 to 2004. Are there estimates of snowpack *variability* in addition to the trend, for the Cascades or parts of the Cascades? For example, I would think the most worrisome time periods for water management would be during extreme warm vs cold phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, especially when reinforced by El Nino/La Nina years. Can you elaborate on how much snowpack variability you see, on top of the observed trends? Thanks — Karen
[Response: These are excellent questions. I refrained from addressing them because I felt it was important to first clarify that there is an observed trend. The question of variability vs. trend is a bit more complex, and the question of attribution (e.g. “global warming” vs. “natural variability”) is not trivial. In particular see Mote, 2006. The Climate Impacts group has a good discussion of this on their website.–eric]
20 March 2007 at 10:47
Re Eric’s response to #1
My first point is that we don’t have to build resevoirs to hold all the ice that is covering the mountains. It does not all melt each year. We only need enough storage during the winter to provide a supply during the summer, to augment that which is not provided by the summer rain. Of course there is a problem finding space for all those resevoirs, but when the glaciers retreat there will be a lot of unowned empty U-shaped valleys which should do very nicely
I agree that I can expect little support from Lindzen, since he believes that increased CO2 is not a danger, and I am arguing the complete opposite. But he is saying that the models should not be trusted, with which I am in agreement. Moreover, in my reply to Philip #13, I pointed out that it is clouds which keep the planet cool, and that idea is not too far off Lindzen’s Iris.
20 March 2007 at 11:17
I wish that newspapers had a real science section every single day, and many more nit-picking yet important scientific debates would pop into the national conscience.
20 March 2007 at 11:24
Yeah the salmon can’t get to the headwaters to spawn as it is for all the reservoirs. Looks like a lot of fish rescue efforts in the future when they get stranded in isolated pools.
20 March 2007 at 11:27
Re #13: [What I am saying is that man made CO2 is causing the snow to melt and that is causing global warming.]
OK, I’ll bite on this one. CO2 is causing the snow to melt, but not by causing global warming? Then how? I’m at a loss.
[In other words, global warming is an indirect consequence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases.]
No, what you have is the initial CO2-caused warming being amplified by the reduction in albedo that it causes.
[Response: Correct. But in any case the snowpack loss we are talking about in the Pacific Northwest is trivial from a snow-albedo feedback point of view (except very very locally of course). –eric]
20 March 2007 at 11:40
Alastair, this makes zero sense. Presence or absence of CO2 does not affect the melting point of ice. And clouds form when 1)the relative humidity reaches 100% and 2)there are sufficient nucleation sites. None of these has anything to do with CO2, or indeed with surface temperature. Dry air will not saturate no matter how much you chill it.
Maybe for teh sake of clarity, you need to go into a little more detail so that we can judge whether you have the foggiest idea of what you are talking about.
20 March 2007 at 11:44
Hi Eric,
Great post! Just a few comments:
On dams: Yes, theoretically, we could build more artificial reservoirs to offset the “snowpack reservoir” that is declining but you have to realize that pretty much all of the potential sites for dams in the west are taken up already. Also, it is nearly impossible (politically) to build a dam right now because of the enormous constituency in the NW to protect anadromous salmonids (fish that need to migrate up rivers from the ocean as part of their life cycle but have a hard time jumping over large dams). There are many examples, throughout the west (and the rest of the country) of dams being removed for fish passage.
Secondly, people should realize that this snowpack decline is not just isolated to the Pacific NW. The “snowpack reservoir” is absolutely essential to nearly all of western North America. For example, California’s economy would be enormously affected by even a modest decline in snowpack. I recommend the work by Dettinger, Cayan, and Stewart at Scripps who have shown a clear trend toward earlier streamflow timing in snowmelt-dominated watersheds across western North America (J. of Climate, 18(8): 1136-1155).
Finally, I have a quick question that I’ve thought a little bit about. As far as the network of snow sensors across the Cascade Range, what does their topographic distribution look like? Are the majority in fairly high elevation locations or are there are a fair amount within the snow-line transition zone? I ask because I would think that the most dramatic declines in snowpack would occur closer to that snow-line transition. Any thoughts would be great. Thanks.
[Response:Thanks for your thoughtful comments. Regarding the last question, you can examine the distribution of stations readily on the web site I noted above — http://www.climate.washington.edu/trendanalysis/. The original data are largely here: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/ The published work does show greater changes at lower elevations, as I noted in my post.–eric]
20 March 2007 at 11:50
One item that you didn’t mention in your summary of the UW dispute is that (at least according to the Seattle Times article) Phil Mote apparently tried to squelch debate by insisting on reviewing all e-mails issued by Albright on the snowpack issue. When Albright refused, Mote banned him from associating with the state climatologist’s office. Given that RealClimate has justifiably criticized the Bush administration for similar tactics in trying to suppress debate on climate issues in Federal agencies, I’m surprised that this didn’t merit some attention here.
Regardless of where you come down on the snowpack issue, this kind of heavy handed suppression of opposing views certainly plays into the hands of some critics of the climate science community.
[Response: Some of my RealClimate colleagues felt I should comment on this too, but I declined to comment on this because I am at UW and felt that it was not appropriate to insert myself into a personnel dispute that should be handled between the individual parties, or if necessary by the directors/chairs of the respective departments. It might be worth pointing out that Phil Mote is not in a position to threaten anyone with a loss of income. The State Climatologist’s office is purely titular.–eric]
20 March 2007 at 11:54
# 5 Phil wrote , [[If this change in global albedo is what is causing global warming, how did the process get started?]]
Phil, I have questions about the sincerety of your comments.
Many threads on this website have addressed this issue.
Look here for example:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/03/climate-sensitivity-plus-a-change/
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/01/the-human-hand-in-climate-change/
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/how-do-we-know-that-recent-cosub2sub-increases-are-due-to-human-activities-updated/
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/co2-in-ice-cores/
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/06/national-academies-synthesis-report/
20 March 2007 at 11:54
Thanks for the link, Eric. Just to clarify: I wasn’t questioning the presence of a trend, but was considering the increased vulnerability of a watershed when additional, extreme variability is imposed on the trend. But I’ll check out the resources you’ve mentioned. Cheers.
20 March 2007 at 12:15
Reducing Albedo? Do you mean the reduction of the Earth’s ability to handle incomming energy from the sun? Sort of like using ice cubes to cool off a drink where the heat circulates within the drink until the ice is gone and we have a drink of equalized yet increasing temperature? In the case of the Earth, the ice cubes would be located at the poles and the drink would be the oceans and atmosphere. One more “quick” question, is the increase of CO2 homogeneous or does it hang about in certain areas on the face of the Earth or is this largely unknown.
20 March 2007 at 12:36
Are there any assessments of the snowpack for the first half of the century? It seems rather ‘convenient’ to pick as your starting date for the assessment a point which coincides with the beginning of the mid-century cooling period associated with the 50’s-70’s. Wouldn’t a more accurate assesment be to compare today’s snowpack to that of the 20’s and 30’s during the peak of the early century warming?
20 March 2007 at 12:36
[[the models are based on the idea that when the surface temperature increases, then more infrared radiation is emitted to space, ]]
Not quite. The same amount is emitted to space. But in order to keep this in/out equilibrium, the surface temperature has to change when the atmosphere changes.
20 March 2007 at 12:37
Harold Ford, no, that’s not what albedo means. You can look it up:
http://www.google.com/search?q=define%3Aalbedo&start=0
20 March 2007 at 12:42
In central California the snow pack is already melting and winter is still here. Weather reporters no longer give the cheery “what a great sunny winter”, they now show far more frowns and concerns when reporting warm winter trends.
20 March 2007 at 12:44
Re #18 comment: [But in any case the snowpack loss we are talking about in the Pacific Northwest is trivial from a snow-albedo feedback point of view (except very very locally of course).]
If we’re just considering the PNW snowpack, of course, but it seems reasonable to suppose that the same reasoning would apply to all mountain ranges, and indeed, to any place with snow. So I did a bit of looking, and it seems the Sierra Nevada snowpack is melting earlier:
http://sfbay.wr.usgs.gov/hydroclimate/pulse.html
The total snowpack seems to have declined as well, though there seems to be more snowfall at higher elevations.
Another consequence would seem to be increased risk of severe floods such as happen here (northern Nevada) when a warm winter storm dumps heavy rain on a snowpack that’s already near melting.
20 March 2007 at 12:44
[[One more “quick” question, is the increase of CO2 homogeneous or does it hang about in certain areas on the face of the Earth or is this largely unknown. ]]
It’s well mixed in the troposphere. The only major gases that isn’t true for are water vapor and ozone.
20 March 2007 at 13:10
Based upon empirical knowledge the alleged declining snow pack is is not abnormal. We skiers know.
For example, photos taken during construction of the Timberline Lodge at Mt Hood show that the permanent snowfield above 7000′ and the glacier near the peak on the south facing slopes were missing. This year the snow pack is sufficient to permit summer skiers to ski down to the Lodge at 6000′ in August. The permanent snow field and glacier are alive and well. Natural variation of the snow pack in the Cascade Range is significant.
The Columbia River system starts in the Columbia Ice Field in Alberta. Are there any studies showing that critical ice field is shrinking? Is there any peer reviewed research indicating that precipitation will decrease in the Pacific Northwest due to increased anthropogenic gas emissions?
The form of precipitation, whether rain or snow, only determines the time of year that river flows increase from runoff. Intuition and historical records indicate that precipitation will remain constant (or perhaps increase) during warmer periods.
The gloom and doom is not justified.
20 March 2007 at 13:15
Re #21:
Thank you for your response, but I think you took my questions too seriously. I was somewhat faceously trying to point out the logical fallacy in Alistair’s first post. Other commenters did a better job of that than I did.
I have already read the links you posted and have been a committed believer in the evidence for AGW for several years. I just worry about the vast amounts of debate going on and the microscopic amount of real progress. Hopefully that will change.
20 March 2007 at 13:26
Much of the period ‘45-’90 is somewhat influenced by “global dimming” caused by late-industrial era pollutants, which have now largely been checked. The most recent rapid and catastrophic warming records perhaps foreshadow an inflection point in snow melt. As such, the interesting trends in snow packs might not have even started yet, or barely begun.
There is a tendency to assume that trends are linear, and curves are normally distributed. It is prudent when feedbacks are in play to look for inflection points and non-normal curves. We won’t know for a few more years, of course, but I have the increasing sense that we have entered a warming acceleration phase unseen before and entirely unanticipated. The trend might still be linear (we pray it is so!) but I sense the slope of the line is moving and not in our favor.
20 March 2007 at 13:34
Mr. Lenihan, you can look this stuff up. Intuition and historical records don’t include the current science.
Try these to start with:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=sBO&q=%2Bprecipitation+%2Bdecrease+%2B%22Pacific+Northwest%22+due+to+increased+anthropogenic%22&btnG=Search
20 March 2007 at 13:36
In some ways this is an engineering issue, i.e. “Are the dams still suitable for the current climate?” Many dams in the PNW were designed using snowpack/stream flow data from the period 1920 to 1950. So the real question is: “Is snowpack/stream flow data in the period 1976 - 2006 similar to the 1920 to 1950 data?
This would be comparing apples to apples.
20 March 2007 at 14:04
Re#29: Yes, if precipitation does not change, the annual water balance will not be largely affected (there may be increased evapotranspiration). But the timing of streamflow is a lot more critical than you think. With a diminishing snowpack, this means more of the streamflow will be shifted earlier in the year because you no longer have as much snowmelt. Thus, to maintain the water balance, more streamflow is expected in the winter and less in the summer. And then you can ask yourself, when do humans consume the most amount of water? Answer: during the hot summer when agricultural irrigation takes place. So unless you plan on building more and more reservoirs (which is just infeasible at some point), we have a major issue to deal with. Many researchers have been looking at this issue for a long time (check out work done by Dennis Lettenmaier at U. of WA or Jay Lund at UC-Davis for instance). People are working on solutions but it will by no means be easy and a lot of sacrifices will need to be made. It is definitely something to be concerned about.
20 March 2007 at 14:08
The snowmelt is going on in the Rockies as well:
“Vanishing Glaciers in the Wind River Range” on the Wyoming Outdoor Council website.
20 March 2007 at 14:30
Re#33: This is another important issue that has been getting a lot of attention in the hydrology community over the last decade or more. Our flood control infrastructure is designed under the assumption that the flood record is consistent with a stationary time-series. In other words, climate does not change.
But as we now are aware, this is not a very good assumption. Many flood records have indeed seen increases in the frequency of large floods. Rivers draining the western Sierra Nevada show an increasing trend (see the 1999 NRC report on Improving American River Flood Frequency Analyses, http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=6483, also see: http://repositories.cdlib.org/jmie/sfews/vol4/iss2/art2/)
There have also been trend analysis studies for the Mississippi River, Yangtze River, and I think several others. See Milly et al. (2006, Nature (415): 514-517) for a look at this issue on a global scale.
20 March 2007 at 14:32
Sorry. Comment 36 should be in reference to #31.
20 March 2007 at 15:02
Re # 31 “The Columbia River system starts in the Columbia Ice Field in Alberta. Are there any studies showing that critical ice field is shrinking? ”
From the Parks Canada Jasper National Park website:
Because of a warming climate, the Athabasca Glacier has been receding or melting for the last 125 years. Losing half its volume and retreating more than 1.5 kms, the shrinking glacier has left a moonscape of rocky moraines in its wake.
http://www.pc.gc.ca/pn-np/ab/jasper/visit/visit32_e.asp
20 March 2007 at 15:21
It needs to be clarified here, that it is hypothetically possible to get more snowfall and snowpack in a globally warming world (at least for a while), due to increased precipitation (which is predicted in a warming world, esp for the higher latitudes) coming down as snow. Also not all places are warming in lock-step; it’s the average temp that going up, and (I think) it’s even possible there could be greater variance or extremes (hotter hots, colder colds), as the average continues to go up (but I’m no scientist, and I don’t really know).
So, an increased snowpack would not disprove global warming.
OTOH, these decreasing snowpacks and decreasing glaciers around the world, it seems, is one of the most serious harms from AGW, since, for instance, 40% of India and 40% of China (& and many, many others) depend on the yearly glacial cycle of summer meltwater supplying their waterways during their growing seasons, and snows replenishing the glaciers during winter. If the precip comes as rain or fast-melting snow during the winter, causing flooding, and the glaciers are all melted, with no water for agriculture or drinking, that’s a recipe for big disaster.
Now, I think the debate should shift to which harm from AGW will be greater. Let’s get to it & make such a ruckus no one can even hear the contrarians anymore.
20 March 2007 at 15:56
Re. 31 Mr. Lenihan,
[[Based upon empirical knowledge the alleged declining snow pack is is not abnormal. We skiers know.]]
Ok, I’ll bite.
Your comments are blatently not scientific and demonstrate common red herrings often used by people with a political agenda.
Firstly, Results need to be openly analyzed for truthfulness in the world-wide journal process.
Second, Results need to be analyzed from many different locations to rule out natural local variability. Ie. Perhaps the local winds changed the precipitaion in your local location temporarily, but not other places but are not representative of the long term average which is being influenced by larger forces.
Non-scientific global warming charlatons for instance, have a website (co2science.org- largely energy funded) that denies GW and “shows” how the GW is not happening because temperature has INCREASED in one city every month.
Scientifically, this is lieing for the two above reasons. One, is it is not necessarily true (sometimes it is blatently against the scientific records that I checked).
Two, you need many different readings from many different locations to determine long-term trends (like AGW [warming]). The Eath cannot heat or cool evenly, which I remember learning as a child.
Many people who use these ridiculous arguments, are either liars or totally ignorant of the scientific process.
20 March 2007 at 16:10
In an important way this is like the issue of sea level rise. We know what the endpoint will be, but not how long it will take to get there. The longest time estimate is big trouble. The shortest time estimate is a full blown disaster.
20 March 2007 at 17:34
Our wise President Vaclav Klaus has spoken:
“The â�� so called â�� climate change and especially man-made climate change has become one of the most dangerous arguments aimed at distorting human efforts and public policies in the whole world. …”
“… I feel obliged to say that the biggest threat to freedom, democracy, the market economy and prosperity at the beginning of the 21st century is not communism or its various softer variants. Communism was replaced by the threat of ambitious environmentalism. This ideology preaches earth and nature and under the slogans of their protection â�� similarly to the old Marxists â�� wants to replace the free and spontaneous evolution of mankind by a sort of central (now global) planning of the whole world. …”
More of his worldshaking wisdom is to be found in his “Answers to questions from the House of Representatives of the U.S. Congress, Committee on Energy and Commerce, on the issue of mankindâ��s contribution to global warming and climate change” - here:
http://data.zpravy.cz/soubory/ln_domov/A070320_HLM_3.19.07_VACLAV_KLAUS_RESPONSE.PDF
You got your bush, we got our klaus…
Greetings from Prague.
David
20 March 2007 at 18:09
Unfortunately you fail to correct the most obvious howler in this quote: regardless of the numerical details that you discuss at some length, whatever future changes are in store over the next 30 years will happen irrespective of what we do with emissions.
20 March 2007 at 18:21
Yep. And watch for surprises.
“With global climate change, temperatures in the Arctic stratosphere are expected to continue to decrease …. For every degree of stratospheric cooling, a reduction in ozone of 15 Dobson units can be expected. This sensitivity is three times larger than had been extimated previously from model calculations …..”
www.rsc.org/pps Photochemical and Photobiological Sciences 2006, 5, 13-24
DOI: 10:1039/b515670j
20 March 2007 at 18:51
Here that is as a link — the older journals appear free; the current year requires payment. So if yo want to know what’s happening with ozone and climate change for 2007, go to www.rsc.org/pps — there’s a whole issue of newer info than what I can read here: http://www.rsc.org/Publishing/Journals/PP/article.asp?doi=b515670j
but it is interesting the sensitivity calculation turns out to be 3x what the modelers thought. I haven’t seen that in the news anywhere.
20 March 2007 at 19:54
Is there any particular reason Mr. Lenihan failed to mention that the Timberline Ski Area collects and packs down as much snow as they can in spring in order to extend the snowpack below the Palmer Glacier down to the Lodge as long as they possibly can during the summer skiing season?
It’s odd, from his post you’d swear the snowfield he claims disproves the snowpack claim is entirely natural, not manipulated by the ski area …
I work part of each september banding hawks on Bonney Butte, where we have a fine view of the ski area. The snowfield is a rectangle, hmmmm … I wonder why?
20 March 2007 at 20:05
Re: 31 Mr. Lenihan
A much broader perspective is needed than your memory and a few pictures during one lodge construction period. According to:
Lillquist K, Walker K (2006) Historical Glacier and Climate Fluctuations at Mount Hood, Oregon. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research: Vol. 38, No. 3 pp. 399â��412 between 1901 and 2001 the 5 studied glaciers on Mount Hood are in a clear overall retreat. They have gone through 2 cycles of retreat and advance: retreating during 1901 - 1946 warming, advancing during wet cooling period mid-century, continued retreating during late 1970’s to mid-1990’s warming period, and a slight advance due to high precipitation in late 90’s.
20 March 2007 at 20:12
#45, you need to clarify. Are you hence suggesting that we should not do anything? How about the following 30 years? And the 30 years after that?
20 March 2007 at 20:25
Re. #44 David, how representative is Klaus of Czech opinion? Are there a lot of influential people in the Czech Republic who think like him, or is do most Czechs realise he’s two prawns short of a barbeque?
20 March 2007 at 21:32
In Los Angeles, we fight traffic, air quality, asthma, global warming, gas prices, oil depletion, road rage…….
all because there is a conflict of interest at the county level that keeps our roads in gridlock.
http://trafficbulldog.org is a commuter advocacy group committed to solving our transportation crisis through 1.3 people per car.
And when that happens, we will get more snow pack in the Sierras.
Please join the conversation.
20 March 2007 at 21:39
#20 “… people should realize that this snowpack decline is not just isolated to the Pacific NW. The “snowpack reservoir” is absolutely essential to nearly all of western North America.”
… and to Australia’s huge Murray - Darling river basin, now at extreme low-flows after the lightest snowpack year on record in our mountains; data here. Snowpack decline is a global issue, with global consequences.
#40 Columbia Ice Field
It’s happening so fast that you can just about watch it melt in real-time, here.
20 March 2007 at 21:39
Re #36: [Thus, to maintain the water balance, more streamflow is expected in the winter and less in the summer. And then you can ask yourself, when do humans consume the most amount of water?]
It might be a good idea to think about other than immediate human needs, too. For most of the western US, most precipitation comes in the winter, and falls as snow in higher elevations. This gradually melts during the summer: in high snowpack years, it’s not unusual to be stepping through remmnants of drifts well into July or even August at the higher elevations. This gradual melting allows the water to soak into the soil, replenishing groundwater & keeping the soil moisture up.
Now if the snowpack melts earlier, the soil might dry out before plants have a chance to complete their reproductive cycles, and so the vegetation might eventually die. Plants shade the soil, and their roots hold it in place. Without the vegetation, the soil gets hotter, accelerating evaporation. When precipitation falls as rain instead of snow, the soil erodes, and now the rain falls on bare rock where it immediately runs off instead of gradually soaking in. You wind up with mountain range that’s desert, except during the frequent flash floods.
20 March 2007 at 22:26
The next decade is going to prove to be an interesting one with the issues of global warming and energy.
Wasn’t there a time before automobiles that there was a crisis because of all the horse manure being created because horses were used for transportation? My point is that man is clever enough to make a change, but waits until the last minute to do so. Let’s hope someone invents something soon. In the meantime, pull up a chair and watch the metaphorical train wreck happen before our eyes. Many, many times in history man has existed in deplorable conditions, and the global climate crisis will just be another chapter in our history. Why didn’t the people of pompeii get out of town? Because they couldn’t, and so shall it be with this climate disaster.
20 March 2007 at 22:32
For those who need a basic primer on glaciers, retreating glaciers on several continents, climate change in SW Australia, the temperature record for the past 1000 years, and the later arrival of winter snows and earlier melting in the western U.S., and other factors that are touched upon in the Q & A excahanges in the comments above, I would sugggest reading the chapter, Glaciation and Long Term Climate Change, that appears in the 5th edition of Geology and the Environment by Pipkin, Trent, Hazlett and Bierman, Brooks/Cole publisher. The 5th edition has just been printed. It is written for freshman-level, liberal-arts college students and hopefully will be intelligible to those whose comments clearly show a lack of understanding of basic science.
20 March 2007 at 23:36
#50,
Certainly over 100 years our actions could have a significant influence over climate change. I’m just pointing out that the Mayor of Seattle’s comment contained an obvious error that suggests a limited understanding of the realities of climate change - unless, horrors, he is well-informed but chose to be deliberately misleading in order to defend his policy of spending taxpayers’ money on carbon offsets.
21 March 2007 at 0:06
It’s so hard to tax people who haven’t been born yet, even for their own good.
21 March 2007 at 1:26
As it happens I live close to a rope tow ski field at about 1300m which hasn’t operated for a couple of years due to lack of snow. And my snarky comment #2 is truthful because coal fired electricity is being used to boost declining hydro. In this case total precipitation seems to be declining as temperature increases here in Tasmania. Since my trick knee is no longer up to skiing I can put up with warmer and wetter weather but what we’re getting so far is warmer and drier.
21 March 2007 at 4:43
David (post 44),
Just wait till his book comes out:)
Paul (also in Prague)
21 March 2007 at 6:46
What effect does land use change (e.g. logging) have on snowpack accumulation and/or longevity?
21 March 2007 at 7:35
James Annan (#45) and Paul M. (#55): I’ve never liked the “helpless observer” theory. Our actions can certainly make things worse (e.g. by bringing closer the day where we release natural stores of CO2 and CH4 as a feedback to our own emissions). They can also make things better by slowing growth in energy demand, diversifying energy resources and giving us longer to develop technologies that mitigate climate change and also help us better to deal with its consequences. To say that we do not control our futures is as pernicious as saying there is no climate change–both attitudes foster complacency, and complacency is never a good strategy when civilization is threatened.
21 March 2007 at 8:32
Re #55
[Wasn’t there a time before automobiles that there was a crisis because of all the horse manure being created because horses were used for transportation? My point is that man is clever enough to make a change, but waits until the last minute to do so.]
The fact that the invention of the automobile prevented a horse manure crisis in 1900 proves exactly nothing about whether the next environmental crisis can be averted by technology. You just can’t be sure that some nifty invention will save you. In fact the sheer size of the CO2 problem makes it quite unlikely that there will be a simple technical solution.
The reasonable course is to be prudent and limit emissions now. If we do find a technofix, great. But let’s not count on it. It’s like driving off a hill in a car where the brakes don’t work. Never mind, let’s hit the gas anyway! Human ingenuity will certainly find a solution before we hit that brick wall down below, won’t it?
21 March 2007 at 9:35
Re: Comment 9, where Ray says:
“When one seeks to base an argument on ceteris paribus (all things being equal), it’s a good idea to think it through and make sure the ceteris are in fact paribus.”
My understanding is that the Latin phrase ceteris paribus means “(with) the rest (being) equal.” The ceteris is the same word (different case ending) as cetera in et cetera (”and the rest [of the things in the list]”).
The basic Latin words are:
- ceterus, cetera, ceterum, an adjective or noun meaning “the other, the rest.”
- par, paris, a noun or adjective meaning “equal, like.”
Of course, the idea is a very important one for isolating and then identifying causation. My layman’s idea of experimentation is that it applies the idea of looking at one variable while holding the rest of the factors steady. I would imagine that that is as difficult to do in the climate sciences as it is in my field of interest, history.
Further, I am intrigued by some other similarities between History and the Climate Sciences. They both look mainly at the past, but employ timeless studies (psychology and economics; physics and chemistry, for example) to understand that past. Experts in both fields sometimes use what they have learned about the past to explain current activities and then, sometimes, make predictions about the future.
Likewise, the conclusions of the two sciences stir up support and opposition from philosophical combatants who rightly or wrongly cite those two specialized sciences. For example, in the field of History, questions such as — What was the cause of the rise of Nazism? — bring Leftists and Rights into conflict beyond the strictly scientific question.
21 March 2007 at 10:21
Re #61 - “What effect does land use change (e.g. logging) have on snowpack accumulation and/or longevity?” I believe there have been some actual attempts to increase logging in some areas of Colorado as a means to increase runoff. I think this is based on two trains of thought - less vegetation that will use the water in the evapotranspiration process as well as less vegetation to hold/shade the snowpack in place longer into the spring. If my memory serves, test plots showed that this did increase runoff in certain streams, but I am not sure of the ecological consequences of this practice. Based on my set of values, I am highly skeptical and would generally oppose such practices that would artificially increase runoff for human consumption. Based on what has been said about runoff in this thread, I would venture an educated guess that this practice would also increase the chances of flooding and erosion…
21 March 2007 at 10:57
Re 64: I stand corrected in my Latin and will paint the corrected version 100 times all around the palace in red paint (a vague reference to an obscure scene in Monty Python’s Life of Bryan).
The controversies in history are probably a little more difficult to resolve than those in science. Even when you have documentary evidence, it may be hard to glean the intent of the author when he/she wrote it.
In science, what constitutes evidence and how much you can trust it is usually a bit more agreed upon, at least within a particular discipline. The oddity in the case of climate change is that contrarians and cranks have been able to ally themselves with entities outside the field who have very deep pockets. This has allowed them to obfuscate the science. There really is no controversy to speak of within the scientific community as to whether climate is changing (It definitely is) or what is largely responsible for causing it (anthropogenic activity). There is more controversy over what will be the consequences–but we are dealing with a chaotic system, and the consequences cannot be predicted with 100% accuracy. Consequently, there is also some disagreement about how forcefully we should respond to this threat. Even Richard Lindzen seems to be in agreement that humans are influencing climate. He merely believes that this chaotic system will somehow restore itself to equilibrium no matter how hard we push it away from its current relative stability. The climate record–and the dynamics of chaotic systems–would seem to disagree with Dr. Lindzen.
21 March 2007 at 11:26
Re #66 (Ray Ladbury)
I don’t wish to divert attention too much from snowpack changes, but you only have to witness what happened (in the UK at least) with the history of asbestos and deep pockets. Science facts hold little sway at times, despite how much you tell people what they don’t want to know.
21 March 2007 at 12:12
Re #65:
Clearing forests to increase runoff is downright stupid, and even the proponents of that plan are probably just looking at the money they can make selling the wood. It will increase local runoff, but it will also add massive amounts of silt to the river, which will fill reservoirs and thus reduce their capacity to hold water. Forest removal will also reduce humidity and thus rainfall downwind, which would be the Great Plains. The Great Plains don’t exactly have a surplus of rainfall as it is.
Let us not even talk of the ecological stupidity of that plan or all the CO2 that will be released (many times the CO2 stored in the tree trunks).
21 March 2007 at 12:17
I think you guys are missing a great data point. Here in northern Washington State, 12,500 years ago, we were covered with a sheet of ice almost a mile thick. So, simply pick that as your starting point. Now it is indisputable, the ice/snow pack has decreased by, oh what the heck, let’s just round it off to 100%. We’ll have to get very creative now to blame the loss of the first 99.999% of that ice/snow pack on human-contributed causes of global warming. But, with your models and super computers, I’m sure you can figure it out.
- Just trying to help.
21 March 2007 at 12:34
I think there is much more to this than the author is suggesting. The trends used in the Mote paper are deceiving… because they are contaminated by interdecadal variability..namely the PDO–the Pacific Decadal Oscillation–which had a maximum (meaning more snow) peaking around 1950 and a minimum in the 90s. Thus, the trend line calculated by Mote suggests a large decrease in snow pack that is not necessarily connected with global warming. In fact, the snowpack has been steady or increasing during the past 20-30 years…a period in which the global warming signal should be largest and in which the PDO signal is of the same sign. Global climate change appears to be increasing precipitation and this may be resulting in overall snowpack holding even if temperatures are warming. Furthermore, the PDO may switch to a snowier regime as would be expected from its typical periodicity. Thus, we may well see the Cascade snowpack being maintained for the next decade or so, until the global warming signal is overwhelming.
Regarding the 50% decrease issue. That number was allowed to stand for over a year and was repeated in other web pages and in a 2004 report to the Governor of Oregon. The meteorological profession must be more careful in the future to insure we are effectively communicating our knowledge and particularly our uncertainties.
Finally, talking to Phil Mote and Dennis Hartmann (chair, atmos sci) and others…it appears that many of us believe that a decrease of 10-15% due to human influence is not unreasonable. This value is within interannual variability and can easily be dealt with by society. 50% loss is a very different matter indeed.
[Response: Cliff. Thanks for dropping in. I agree with you of course that there is a big difference betwen 50% and 10-15%. But in terms of public policy there is an even bigger difference between “no snowpack decline” and “10-15% decrease due to human influence.” That’s the reason for this post — to make it clear that the evidence does NOT suppor the position that human influence (a.k.a. “global warming”) is a non-issue for considerations of future water supply (not to mention skiing) here in this region. And I don’t think anyone has said that the Cascade snowpack will necessarily decline over the next decade. As you know well, the variability on decadal timescales is quite large, and we may even see an increase (as we did in the last few years). No doubt, if that happens, we’ll hear all sorts of talk about how “the IPCC had it wrong, global warming is a myth, etc.”. That’ll be a shame, because it will be dead wrong, but will provide lots of political cover for folks that don’t want to take future water resources issues seriously.
Having said all that, I should note that 1) your argument that the last 20-30 years is a “a period in which the global warming signal should be largest” should be interpreteted with caution. The PNW doesn’t care about the global mean! If I plot 1977-2006 April SWE, most stations show more snowfall. But many stations show cooling, not warming, over the same period. So there is certainly not the contradiction you imply there is. 2) Your comments on the PDO will also be misleading to many of our readers, because you are implying that there is some predictability in the PDO. But the power spectrum doesn’t show periodicity, and one cannot use it to make any sort of predictions. We might get a “run” of 10 years in the positive phase, but then again we might not. I think that Don Percival (also here at UW) has shown this quite clearly. So I have no confidence that the snowpack will either decline nor grow in the next decade. What I have more confidence in is the long term decline. (Though I am sure we both agree that Mayor Nickel’s specific prediction that we’ll only be at 25% of the “original” snowpack levels by 2047 is not particularly believable, and I probably should have stated this in my post. –eric]
21 March 2007 at 12:42
Re #66: Youa culpa, Ray! Now all you have to do is learn to conjugate without a sword being held to your throat.
21 March 2007 at 13:10
[[I think you guys are missing a great data point. Here in northern Washington State, 12,500 years ago, we were covered with a sheet of ice almost a mile thick. So, simply pick that as your starting point. Now it is indisputable, the ice/snow pack has decreased by, oh what the heck, let’s just round it off to 100%. We’ll have to get very creative now to blame the loss of the first 99.999% of that ice/snow pack on human-contributed causes of global warming. But, with your models and super computers, I’m sure you can figure it out.]]
And if we start from 1607, we can show that North America is a British Colony.
The implication that we’re warming because we’re coming out of an ice age is wrong no matter how many times you hear it from Rush Limbaugh. We passed the peak of the interglacial 8,000 years ago and the Earth should now be cooling.
21 March 2007 at 13:36
RE: 30. I’ve had this preconceived idea that CO2 might not make it up into the upper atmosphere due to it being heavier than most common atmospheric gases. The rational being that in a fire CO2 hangs around on the ground (if you crawl around inside a burning house you choke, if you stand you get burned) possibly due to its density. I was also thinking that CO2 migrates toward the equator due to prevailing winds (no rotation of the Earth considered). If that is not the case, why is it not the case. In other words, how is it that CO2 is making it to the polar regions, it should be stuck in the tropics being devoured by plants at least by that train of thought, did I miss the boat?
[Response: Nice idea, but the gravitational effects on individual molecules in the atmosphere are tiny compared to the forces of all the molecules colliding with each other. So at normal densities and pressures (up to at least the mesosphere) all of the gases are well-mixed - with the exception of water vapour because it condenses as a function of temperature. - gavin]
[Just to clarify this further, CO2 is actually not well mixed on very short timescales. This is what allows CO2 to remain near the ground in a house for example, or to be higher at night in a forest (when trees are respiring) than outside the forest. Think about it — does the CO2 in burning house stay there forever? Of course not. It eventually esapces the house and mixes with the outside atmosphere. On timescales of months to years, which is all that matters for climate, it is well mixed throughout the troposphere.–eric]
[Response: Another perspective on this: CO2 is heavier than air, and if there weren’t mixing it would congregate in a layer near the ground. with an average depth of about 3 meters. Most of us would have to stand on a step ladder to breath, at least near sea level. –raypierre]
21 March 2007 at 13:52
Harold, Even if there were no updrafts, etc. CO2 would still make it to the upper atmosphere, if only because the Maxwellian destribution of energies would always have some molecules in the tail that would be energetic enough to rise. Moreover, the density of CO2 is not so high (44 g/mole vs 32 g/mole for O2) that there would be complete segregation.
Most important to remember, though is that Earth’s atmosphere is turbulent. Winds lift dust (much higher density than CO2) and water droplets to great heights. I’m not sure why you think it would move preferentially toward the equator.
21 March 2007 at 14:35
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21 March 2007 at 15:42
RE#69 I referred Ken Coffman an electrical engineer here from another site. He wanted to read my novel but when he found out I was on the other side, this one where the facts are, he was more interested in ad hominems than learning. Just another Imhofe.
21 March 2007 at 15:50
RE 74 ty Ray. In response to what I meant about the winds, the sun and the rotation of the Earth give an over all average pattern the movement of the air. The sun for instance causing a majority of the rise of air currents in the tropics causing a general pole to equator movement of air. CO2 being heavier than N2 and O2, with no major updrafts, it would simply lie near the bottom of the atmosphere while the average movement of the air would increase CO2s density at the equator. A major updraft could cause it to rise, but then it would fall back faster than O2 or N2 which would be carried further North and South than CO2. I see your point on the turbulence and take it that gusts would carry CO2 high into the atmosphere but there still should be some stratification of CO2. N2 has 28g/mol while O2 has 32g/mol a bare 4g difference yet still one needs/desires more oxygen while climbing Mt Everest. CO2 is much heavier in that respect (44g/mol as noted in #74) and so there should be even larger differences in its distribution than even O2 and N2. The main question would be, is CO2 evenly distributed at lower altitudes, if so then why, if not then why.
21 March 2007 at 15:58
“We passed the peak of the interglacial 8,000 years ago and the Earth should now be cooling.”
Now you’re scaring me, Barton Paul. You’re saying there are impending cooling forces that are completely out of human influence or control? Since I’m far more afraid of cooling than heating, you really have my attention now. What are we going to do to survive when the ice caps beigin growing again? Should we really push for more warming now to delay or reduce the impact of the cooling? I suppose we could use nuclear power plants to stay warm. How about drilling heat pipes to our hot core? We’d better get busy now. I work for a company that does green power and support for the more efficient LED lighting, what are you guys doing? I don’t think there is any time to waste.
21 March 2007 at 16:07
What do you think, Mark, is he interested in learning about the science?
I’ll trust your judgment whether this is just going to be trolling.
21 March 2007 at 16:07
Remember also, that areas that were shaded snow pack under dense forest inthe lower Cascades 50 or 80 years ago, have been logged, and turned into roads, malls, parking lots, and housing. Suburbia does not have snow pack. Thus, less snow pack, particularly at low altitudes.
More auto traffic means more soot and dust which deposits on snow and increases early spring melting. Thus, there is less snow pack.
The problem is not with the precipitation, the problem is that the snow is melting before it can be measured as “snow pack.”
21 March 2007 at 16:14
Great, now Mark York is checking in. Excellent. Hi Mark. You can see I’ve followed your advice and I’m reading up on the science on this site and trying to stretch my limited intellect to follow the issues and absorb the wisdom. I definitely have an open mind on these topics. Convection, radiation, energy storage. I can’t wait for the test.
21 March 2007 at 16:14
Re 77: The reason one needs O2 on Everest is because the atmospheric density itself declines, not just O2 decreases. To a first approximation (ideal gas equation) the density (n/V) will decline roughly linearly with pressure (of course temperature also declines, too). No, I don’t know of any rotating system with an energy input where the fluids stay stratified by density.
21 March 2007 at 16:26
Re 69. Somewhere, buried in almost any post is a point trying to find its way out. I believe the point to be found in this point is that different climate drivers are important in different epochs. The deglaciation of the current interglacial is understood to have occurred due to increased insolation. But snow pack was a pretty stable source of water for the duration humans have inhabited the Northwest. That is now changing, and increased insolation cannot be the cause, since the Sun’s output has not significantly increased. Mr. Coffman seems to be implying that the development is not significant, but it is very significant to those living in the Northwest. And perhaps you could attribute it to fluctuations were it not happing at sites all around the globe–the Pacific Northwest, the Alps, Tasmania and New Zealand, the Himmalayas… And indeed it is part of a larger trend–dates of first and last frost are moving closer together–again globally. So, thank you Ken for making that point.
21 March 2007 at 16:27
“He wanted to read my novel but when he found out I was on the other side, this one where the facts are, he was more interested in ad hominems than learning. Just another Imhofe.” - Mark York
Now Mark, please be nice. You accuse me of using ad hominem attacks, but I haven’t. I only said I think you’re a funny guy. And, I suggested, if you apply yourself, you could be like George Soros and do the world some good. That is not name-calling. [edit] And above, I’m an Imhofe. I don’t think these are persuasive elements of effective arguments.
I apologize if I suggested the wrong role model. I can substitute Al Gore or Bill Joy, if either accurately reflect your ambition. Or, pick your own, I’d be very interested.
21 March 2007 at 17:26
Re #77: Ken Coffman — The first possible date for a try at a stade (ice sheets) would have been in 20,000 years. Probably this will be missed due to anthropogenic warming. The next try is then 50,000 years from now. Probably this will be missed for the same reason. So even if we do our best to stop warming the globe, the next stade won’t be for 150,000 years.
I think you are worried about entirely the wrong thing.
21 March 2007 at 19:28
Re 78: When were we due for the next ice age in the absence of global warming.
The Wikipedia entry on the Milankovitch cycles is well written and directly addresses this point. (Milankovitch cycles are the cyclic changes to Earths orbit, angle to the sun etc. - over tens of thousands of years - that determine the amount of incoming sunlight and it’s angle to the poles, and which are thought to pace the glacial/interglacial ages.)
A model of the effect of the Milankovitch cycles on the Earth’s climate described the 2002 paper in science by Berger & Loutre “Climate: An exceptionally long interglacial ahead?”, predicts a possible ice age in 50,000 year time (in the absence of anthropologically enhanced CO2).
21 March 2007 at 20:03
Re#82 There are systems that stratify but under controlled conditions and not for long, some sort of alcholic beverage. I looked up some things concerning CO2, due to its 44g/mol it tends not to mix and pours like a liquid. But it does eventually mix, somthing about Brownian motion and diffusion, so its possible that it could hang around the source of CO2 emission areas for a period of time before dispersing. diffusion “things move from regions of high concentration to low concentration”. So I guess CO2 cannot be ruled out as the main cause of global warming
21 March 2007 at 20:09
There is a very interesting article talking about the mantel of the earth being exposed to the ocean. Could the ice be melting due to the earth warming the oceans with its missing Crust? Warmer ocean waters will change weather patterns. Just an interesting look at another aspect or reason why the ice is melting, and what could be causing or contributing to global warming.
[Response: Uhhh.. No. The sun provides us with roughy 340 Watts/m2 of the earth’s surface. The flux of heat from the earth itself is less than 0.1 W/m2. Not even close to being important! Locally of course, it matters a lot (sitting on top of a volcano for instance). But climate doesn’t care about very localized heat sources.–eric]
21 March 2007 at 20:30
[edit - abuse of other commenters is not welcome.]
21 March 2007 at 20:34
Re #85: It would seem so but actually I’ve another scenario thought up, though I’m not sure how realistic it is. Methane is considered the runner up in the green house gas gas. I’m not sure that that is the case. There was an article not long ago concerning CO2 causing the ice to move. The problem with it is that CO2 was only found in the later ice ages and not in earlier ones. Back to diffusion, natural gas being very light would diffuse quickly upwards, possibly forming a pure layer of natural gas (due to its high rate of diffusion), and eventually break down, either oxidizing slowly or quickly. If it burned over the polar regions heated CO2 and H2O (a hot acid rain?) could be sucked down on to the polar caps (depending stratosphereic conditions) thus leaving a high concentration of CO2 in the ice as well as heating the air, sort of like a household propane heater using forced air. Might the natural gas only start to form in large quantities on the Earth, showing up in the atmosphere late in the greenhouse game, explaining the CO2 being missing prior to whatever maxim it was found in?
21 March 2007 at 22:15
Re #66
Ray, this is a science site, when it comes to Monty Python there is no such thing as a vague reference or obscure scene.
In fact, the RC comments often remind me of the People’s Front of Judea. Or was it the Judean People’s Front. Or the Popular People’s Front…
21 March 2007 at 22:44
#62 (Ray)
I’m no fan of “helpless observers” but I’m also no fan of gesture politics, and without claiming that science always has the answer I do think that policy decisions should at least have a passing acquaintance with whatever relevant facts are known. If the projected decline in snowpack over the next 30 years is thought likely to have serious effects on water, power, tourism, Yeti or whatever then the Mayor would be well advised to look for real solutions rather than engaging in tokenism.
FWIW I’m also not keen on such hyperbole as “civilisation is threatened” but I’ll let that pass without comment this time
21 March 2007 at 22:59
Re: #88: I believe there is something much more sinister at work. I was alerted to this during a bicycle trip through the Canadian Rockies and past the moonscape of Athabasca Glacier last summer. Apparently, Arctic Ice (Arctic Ice Co.) is being shipped to grocery stores across Canada and elsewhere, and sold to thousands of unsuspecting customers, cubed and in plastic bags. Obviously, this is also why Arctic ice is disappearing much faster than Antarctic ice.
21 March 2007 at 23:11
Re #78: [Since I’m far more afraid of cooling than heating, you really have my attention now. What are we going to do to survive when the ice caps beigin growing again?]
Stake a claim on some of the continental shelf uncovered by the lowering sea level
Seriously, I think it’s been argued that by a standard of total biological productivity, the Earth is actually better off during an Ice Age. Cooler ocean waters are more productive (due to upwelling which replenishes nutrients in the upper layers), areas like the Great Basin & Sahara become savanna instead of desert, the area uncovered by the lowering sea level more than compensates for what’s covered by ice sheets, etc.
22 March 2007 at 0:52
Off topic, sorry. According to this Raw Story article V.P. Cheney may have been personally involved in censoring climate change reports. Seems surprising that the source of the info is supposedly Environment & Energy Daily. Isn’t that M&M’s bastion?
http://rawstory.com/news/2007/Democrats_focus_on_Cheneys_involvement_in_0321.html
22 March 2007 at 5:40
[[CO2 being heavier than N2 and O2, with no major updrafts, it would simply lie near the bottom of the atmosphere while the average movement of the air would increase CO2s density at the equator. A major updraft could cause it to rise, but then it would fall back faster than O2 or N2 which would be carried further North and South than CO2. I see your point on the turbulence and take it that gusts would carry CO2 high into the atmosphere but there still should be some stratification of CO2.]]
Your intuition is leading you astray here. CO2 is well mixed throughout the troposphere. You have to drop a theory if it doesn’t match the evidence.
22 March 2007 at 5:42
[[”We passed the peak of the interglacial 8,000 years ago and the Earth should now be cooling.”
Now you’re scaring me, Barton Paul. You’re saying there are impending cooling forces that are completely out of human influence or control? Since I’m far more afraid of cooling than heating, you really have my attention now. What are we going to do to survive when the ice caps beigin growing again? Should we really push for more warming now to delay or reduce the impact of the cooling? I suppose we could use nuclear power plants to stay warm. How about drilling heat pipes to our hot core? We’d better get busy now. I work for a company that does green power and support for the more efficient LED lighting, what are you guys doing? I don’t think there is any time to waste. ]]
1. It would take 20,000 to 50,000 years for the next ice age to start, so there is no imminent danger.
2. Global warming has eliminated the likelihood of another ice age altogether. That was the point of my post. The Earth should be cooling (very gradually), but is warming because we’re pumping so much greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.
22 March 2007 at 6:53
Re 88: Elijah, the energy exchange is too local–and therefore to limited to be having a global effect. I do wonder though whether it might not be a significant source of nutrient upwelling into the more productive shallow depths of the ocean.
#90 Harold, again, in a turbulent system, things tend not to stratify. Look at Saturn and Jupiter where Hydrogen mixes with methane, etc. Still the release of large amounts methane is a serious concern, as its absorption spectrum makes it a more efficient ghg (per unit mass) than CO2. Moreover, I think you will find that a column of gas with a concentration of CH4 will absorb the same amount of radiation (to 1st order, neglecting screening), whether the methane is in a column or not. The CH4 and CO2 trapped near the poles is largely due to the large amounts of peat in the permafrost.
Re 92. James Annan, I really do not consider the contention that civilization is threatened by climate change to be hyperbole. You have to remember that civilization is a rather young phenomenon, and I do not think it is a coincidence that civilization’s emergence coincides with a period of exceptional climatic stability that shifted the balance in favor of agriculture and markets/trade over hunter-gatherer economies. Climate change does indeed threaten two mainstays of modern civilization–agriculture and cheap energy.
22 March 2007 at 8:45
[edit]
How does one earn respect around here? Is it IQ? The number of patents your name appears on? The number of books you’ve sold? Measurable success in a technical field? I know, I have to suspend common sense and historical perspective and embrace the conclusions of modeling done by the IPCC. Well, too bad for me, I shall remain willfully retarded in that regard.
It’s true, I’m poking fun. Seriously though, I believe the current interglacial warming of the Holocene era has enabled the rise of our glorious civilization. We’ve been cold for most of the last 160,000 years. I worry about short growing seasons, susceptibility to disease (have you noticed your body fights off infection by feverish heating?) and other cold-climate-related nastiness (not to mention what the cold weather does to my golf game). So, I wonder who will be in charge of the global thermostat? I’d like to lobby for a few more degrees, not only for my comfort level in the Pacific Northwest, but for alleviating the effects of the coming cooling cycles.
The earth goes through cycles of many types. It gets warmer and colder. Right now it’s warm and you reap the benefits of that luxury. If we humans have some small influence on climate, then perhaps we should redouble our efforts toward warming. The more sane response to climate change, in my mind, is to adapt. Use our brain power and technology to create new forms of energy and work on using it effectively.
This is a non sequitur, but a mantra we should recite routinely. Correlation is not causation. Just a thought for the day.
[Response: Please keep comments substantive. Name calling will just be deleted (as I have above). -gavin]
22 March 2007 at 10:53
Re 99: Ken, several skeptics have earned respect in this forum–at least from most of the participants. They have done so by being knowledgeable about issues, by keeping their comments substantive and by realizing that when an intelligent person devotes 20-30 years of his or her life to studying a subject, their views on that subject are worthy of consideration if not acceptance.
It is true that correlation is not causation, but correlation plus a well understood physical mechanism makes a much stronger argument for causation.
You call for development of new technologies to mitigate the effects of climate change. In such a call, you would find many allies in this forum. My own position is that given the magnitudes of the likely changes we will be confronting, and given the difficulty of predicting a chaotic system, anything we can do to slow the onset of these changes and give ourselves more time to adapt represents a wise investment. I’m afraid that I agree that we will not stop climate change. We can make it worse, however, and by extension, I hope we can also make it better.
This forum represents a valuable resource. I am far from an expert–my field is radiation effects in semiconductors–so I am learning a lot from the time I spend here. I also learn from the skeptics that can present their arguments in a respectful tone. You can contribute more to the discussion by eloquently stating your own position, rather than attacking those of others.
22 March 2007 at 11:01
re: 99. “Use our brain power and technology to create new forms of energy…”
Which of course defies the fundamental “Energy can not be created or destroyed”.
[Response: I’ve turned off comments for the moment so I can have a chance to respond to some of the above. I’ll turn them back on soon, with the hope that the coments can get back on topic! –eric]
22 March 2007 at 14:58
OK, comments are back on, but please
a) be civil
b) TRY to stick to the topic at hand!
Eric
22 March 2007 at 16:02
re: 99 [[I know, I have to suspend common sense and historical perspective and embrace the conclusions of modeling done by the IPCC.]]
Ken, those two views depend critically on what things one is aware of. Here is the unappreciated recent history of abrupt climate change.
While the whole article is useful, the paragraphs next to and after fig. 5 are essential to understand what constitutes ‘common sense’ to those who work in climate science.
22 March 2007 at 17:15
Eric has written that
“The Seattle city mayor, Greg Nickels (a well known advocate for city-based CO2 reduction initiatives) wrote in an Op-Ed piece in the Seattle Times that
‘The average snowpack in the Cascades has declined 50 percent since 1950 and will be cut in half again in 30 years if we don’t start addressing the problems of climate change now. That snow not only provides our drinking water, it powers the hydroelectric dams that keep our lights on.’”
Greg Nickels recently proposed replacing the Alaska Way Viaduct in Seattle with an underground freeway. It is inconsistent to advocate for measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and at the same time promote projects that will not mitigate these emissions, but most certainly increase them - in this case a proposal to replace the Alaskan Way Viaduct with a tunnel.
Voters in Seattle recently rejected his proposal, as well as one to build an elevated freeway.
Read “Removing Urban Freeways” at http://www.planetizen.com/node/23300
“Likewise, Seattle is debating what to do about the earthquake-damaged Alaska Way Viaduct on its waterfront. An active citizen’s movement and one of the local newspapers says that the Alaska Way should not be rebuilt; it should be replaced by surface streets and transit. But Washington’s governor has run a referendum that just lets voters choose between an elevated freeway and an underground freeway, and Seattle’s Mayor, Greg Nickels, supports the underground freeway.
Nickels has taken many minor steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Seattle. If he would back freeway removal and more balanced transportation, he could make Seattle into a leader in fighting global warming - an example for the rest of the country and the world to imitate.
Instead, Nickels has backed an alternative that hides the traffic but does nothing to reduce the region’s auto dependency and carbon dioxide emissions. He has not learned anything from the huge cost overruns of Boston’s Big Dig. And he does not realize that, as global warming causes sea levels to rise, his underground waterfront freeway could turn into the world’s largest underground swimming pool.”
[Response: In fairness to Nickel’s the State put him in something of a bind by saying that any plan that didn’t move 100,000 cars a day was a non-starter. Happily, the voters said NO to both the Big Dig and the Viaduct rebuild option, and now Nickels and Governer Gregoire are starting to talk seriously about public transit. If the people lead the leaders will follow, goes the saying.–eric]
22 March 2007 at 18:40
I hope the RC folks discuss Mark Lynas’s new book, SIX DEGREES (National Geographic, 2007). He doesn’t have ice melting from both poles until a 5 degree increase in warming; but he does mention a big portion of fresh water loss (incl glacial water) with only a 1C increase, which apparently is already in the pipes as James Annan alludes to(#45), even if we halt all our GHG emissions immediately (which is impossible).
Here is a brief summary of what happens at each of the 6 Degrees (I think the worst case projected upper warming limit (re both highest emissions & highest sensitivity) for 2100 is now 6.4C):
[Response: Now THIS is alarmism and it is not supported by science! The Earth has been much warmer than 6 degrees above its present value in the past. I haven’t seen Lynas’s book, but if this is really a quote from it I don’t have any plans to read it, and even less to recommend it to anyone else!–eric]
22 March 2007 at 18:43
I guess you can just pick a date to start with and get a different result.
Here is the snowpack charts from 1879 to 2005 and from 1915 to 2005 for two Washington state locations from the University of Washington.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/marka/snowpack.html
22 March 2007 at 19:00
I would think that Nickels should check out the active earthquake faults in the area (the Seattle Fault for example). Puget Sound has had tsunamis in the past. The underground waterfront freeway could become a swimming pool very fast.
22 March 2007 at 22:02
Re #106 & http://www.atmos.washington.edu/marka/snowpack.html
Is the Donner Summit from the Donner Party fame (that had to resort to cannibalism to survive)?
22 March 2007 at 23:24
Having data on the European Alps, the Andes, the Himalayas, Kilimanjaro as well as the Pacific Northwest matters when discussing global warming - for example, the press release could have pointed out that this is a global trend in many different parts of the world, not just in the Pacific Northwest.
Having such data would allow comparisons to be made to model output, like this study: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/05/060519102250.htm : “New Century Of Thirst For World’s Mountains”
Alaska in 2100 will maintain but 64 percent of its year 2000 snowpack. In Europe, the Alps will be at 61 percent and Scandinavia 56 percent. The Sierras, Cascades and southern Rockies will be at 57 percent of current levels. The Andes will drop to 45. And Mt. Cook and its snowcapped neighbors in New Zealand will be much less scenic at 16 percent of current.
(So if the prediction for 2100 is for 57% reduction, and currently there is a 15-30% reduction, it seems that model behavior still generally agrees with observations)
However, the model seems to be missing other trends:
Ghan cautioned about “significant limitations” to the model. For example, field observations in Africa suggest the famous snows of Mt. Kilimanjaro will be gone within decades, and on Greenland signs point to accelerated snow and ice melt.
“This climate model doesn’t show that,” Ghan said. “That doesn’t mean Kilimanjaro and Greenland aren’t in trouble. But our model doesn’t account for all of the snow loss that is possible. Our model neglects downward flow of snow by avalanches and snow slides, glacial creep in places where snowfall is heavy and the snow doesn’t have time to melt.”
Speaking of Kilimanjaro, see: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/298/5593/589 (Kilimanjaro Ice Core Records: Evidence of Holocene Climate Change in Tropical Africa, Thompson et al 2002). There’s also this realclimate article on tropical glacier retreat: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/05/tropical-glacier-retreat/
23 March 2007 at 0:45
Yes.
23 March 2007 at 0:57
Re #108: Yes. Donner Lake, Pass, and Summit are all in the vicinity of Truckee, CA, and named for the ill-fated party.
23 March 2007 at 6:17
Re #105: Well, Lynn, you said earlier that it was OK to lie to exaggerate global warming (except for scientists). Now you found someone who did it. That “Six Degrees” stuff is complete and utter rubbish, and certainly does not represent even the most extreme end of the IPCC consensus.
The earth was 10 degrees warmer during the Cretaceous and had much higher levels of carbon dioxide, and life did not end in “apocalyptic storms, flash floods, hydrogen sulphide gas and methane fireballs racing across the globe with the power of atomic bombs”, and more than fungi survived.
This kind of apocalyptic fantasy only damages serious efforts to get people to take global warming seriously. Denialists love this sort of thing, it makes their opponents look like idiots.
[Response: Thanks! Yes, you are right on the makr. -eric]
23 March 2007 at 7:29
Re: 112
Straw man. We have a vast, complex, world-wide civilization with nearly 6.5 billion of us depending upon that civilization functioning smoothly. How many deaths from hunger is an acceptable price to pay for Hummers and chilled air in the summer time?
23 March 2007 at 7:42
Re 112: While I agree alarmism is not productive, the fact remains that nobody can predict the outcome of the current warming epoch, precisely because climate is a chaotic system. This lends itself to projection by everybody of either their fondest hopes (a greener world crap) or their worst fears (the day after tomorrow crap). By looking at paleoclimatic reconstructions, we can glean some possible outcomes, but this still leaves a broad range of possibilities. I do agree that life on Earth will persist, but given that the infrastructure of civilization has never experienced an epoch of change like the present, we have to be concerned with its resilience in the face of such unpredictable change.
23 March 2007 at 10:26
Eric wrote-
2) Your comments on the PDO will also be misleading to many of our readers, because you are implying that there is some predictability in the PDO. But the power spectrum doesn’t show periodicity, and one cannot use it to make any sort of predictions. We might get a “run” of 10 years in the positive phase, but then again we might not. I think that Don Percival (also here at UW) has shown this quite clearly.
This comment is itself misleading, unfortunately. There is little predictability (beyond about a year) for the PDO, but whatever part of the snowpack change is “due” (really correlated with) the PDO is likely a natural swing. This was the point Cliff was getting at. Yes, it doesn’t have to swing back the other ways necessarily, because the PDO is neither truly decadal nor an oscillation. But to the extent it represents decadal ENSO variability, and to the extent that neither the PDO nor ENSO regions have experienced any significant trend over the last 100 years (whereas virtually the entire remainder of the Pacific basin has), you can’t brush off Cliff’s comment so easily.
[Response: I was by no means brushing off Cliff’s comment. He brings up the importance of the large variabilty that has nothing to do with “global warming” and he is right. In my view, the extent to which the average decline in snowpack is attributable to such variability is unclear but it is certainly a significant fraction — very likely more than 50%. However, a big difference between the “natural varibilty” and the forced (anthropogenic change) is that the first is not very predictable. So the best prediction will be a snowpack decline, +/- some big number due to that natural variabilty. The further out we g