What if you held a conference, and no (real) scientists came?
Over the past days, many of us have received invitations to a conference called "The 2008 International Conference on Climate Change" in New York. At first sight this may look like a scientific conference - especially to those who are not familiar with the activities of the Heartland Institute, a front group for the fossil fuel industry that is sponsoring the conference. You may remember them. They were the promoters of the Avery and Singer "Unstoppable" tour and purveyors of disinformation about numerous topics such as the demise of Kilimanjaro's ice cap.
A number of things reveal that this is no ordinary scientific meeting:
- Normal scientific conferences have the goal of discussing ideas and data in order to advance scientific understanding. Not this one. The organisers are suprisingly open about this in their invitation letter to prospective speakers, which states:
"The purpose of the conference is to generate international media attention to the fact that many scientists believe forecasts of rapid warming and catastrophic events are not supported by sound science, and that expensive campaigns to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are not necessary or cost-effective."
So this conference is not aimed at understanding, it is a PR event aimed at generating media reports. (The "official" conference goals presented to the general public on their website sound rather different, though - evidently these are already part of the PR campaign.)
- At the regular scientific conferences we attend in our field, like the AGU conferences or many smaller ones, we do not get any honorarium for speaking - if we are lucky, we get some travel expenses paid or the conference fee waived, but often not even this. We attend such conferences not for personal financial gains but because we like to discuss science with other scientists. The Heartland Institute must have realized that this is not what drives the kind of people they are trying to attract as speakers: they are offering $1,000 to those willing to give a talk. This reminds us of the American Enterprise Institute last year offering a honorarium of $10,000 for articles by scientists disputing anthropogenic climate change. So this appear to be the current market prices for calling global warming into question: $1000 for a lecture and $10,000 for a written paper.
- At regular scientific conferences, an independent scientific committee selects the talks. Here, the financial sponsors get to select their favorite speakers. The Heartland website is seeking sponsors and in return for the cash promises "input into the program regarding speakers and panel topics". Easier than predicting future climate is therefore to predict who some of those speakers will be. We will be surprised if they do not include the many of the usual suspects e.g. Fred Singer, Pat Michaels, Richard Lindzen, Roy Spencer, and other such luminaries. (For those interested in scientists' links to industry sponsors, use the search function on sites like sourcewatch.org or exxonsecrets.org.)
- Heartland promises a free weekend at the Marriott Marquis in Manhattan, including travel costs, to all elected officials wanting to attend.
This is very nice hotel indeed. Our recommendation to those elected officials tempted by the offer: enjoy a great weekend in Manhattan at Heartland's expense and don't waste your time on tobacco-science lectures - you are highly unlikely to hear any real science there.
30 January 2008 at 5:45 PM
It won’t surprise you to learn that this Heartland was the primary source my latest sceptic foe used. You guys were “lefty scientists” to him. This is the primary problem with looking at science through a political frame.
30 January 2008 at 6:57 PM
I could not be more disappointed in RC.
Why are you rolling around in the mud?
Where is the promised post regarding Hadley/GISS discrepencies? And if you have any extra time, you might post on what attention climate science is paying to alternatives to “emissions reduction” as a response to the potential for catastrophic warming.
What purpose can possibly be served by this topic? The people whose noses you are tweaking don’t already know how you feel about them?
Very, very dosappointing.
30 January 2008 at 7:02 PM
According to ExxonSecrets.org, the Heartland Institute describes itself as “the marketing arm of the free-market movement” and has received $791,500 from ExxonMobil since 1998. The Heartland Institute is in no way a scientific organization. It is a propaganda mill.
The success of the fossil fuel industry’s multi-million dollar, years long campaign of propaganda to disinform the American public about the reality of global warming cannot be underestimated. They successfully delayed serious action to reduce emissions (and the consumption of their products) by ten or twenty years at least. With ExxonMobil alone reaping annual profit approaching 40 billion dollars, the payoff for the paltry millions they’ve paid outfits like Heartland has been huge.
But not as huge as the cost of that lost time will be to all of us.
30 January 2008 at 7:09 PM
Don’t your employer(s) usually play for conference fees and travel?
It would be fun to submit a “results pending” abstract and see if they still pay if the talk gives them a result they don’t like-
I think one of the mojor differences between this adn real scientific conferences is that at real conferences, talk are generally chosen based on abstracts describing the experimental or observational methods, but often the results are partially or wholly unknown by everyone except the speaker when the talk begins.
30 January 2008 at 7:31 PM
I guess I don’t understand.
Why not go and debate in person with those that don’t agree with you? I struggle with the attitude on both sides of this important issue that refuses to have an intellectual conversation with the other side. Much of the written discussion on this topic tends to talk PAST each other and not TO each other. Both sides say that the other side is driven by ulterior motives and both sides call the other side to be the equivalent of dunderheads.
At nearly every conference (and surely this one as well) the floor is open to questions. Go to the conference, pick a particularly erroneous statement by the presenter and ask them to reply to the evidence that you would like to present. Listen to their answer and POLITELY explain where you think that person is incorrect.
30 January 2008 at 7:40 PM
The problem is that science should not be viewed through any frame, it should jsut be science. Dr. Hansen’s arguments have pointed this out very well. The Public affairs offices should not be propaganda offices, they should be reporting offices.
“Public Affairs Offices should be staffed by career professionals protected by civil service rules, not headed by political appointees.”
It is hard to fathom, at this point in time, with the level of knowledge and indicators, and understanding, that anyone would want to confuse the issue of global warming… considering all the risks and costs?
Do they think they will be immune to the economic strains?
The arguments are so contrary to solid reasoning and logic as well as the profoundly work of the relevant science organizations around the world and its resultant aggregate understanding.
The cost of delay only increases the cost of needed solutions and further strains or erodes the economic system they seem to be trying to protect.
Maybe they think the politicians, to whom they have contributed so much, will always side with them?
Maybe they think they are immune to large changes in the climate system?
Maybe they think that delaying this will give them time to make enough money to ensure their security in the future?
Maybe they don’t have objective financial advisers?
Maybe they don’t understand the nature of lawsuits to come?
They seem comfortable with waiting. The unfortunate part is that everyone has to pay for their delays, even people that have no idea that ‘they’ even exist.
The moral questions will eventually be raised. In the mean time developing relevant understanding of relevant facts must continue. That is the best offense.
I am thankful for realclimate.com and all the wonderful work done by every climate scientist that is digging for the facts and putting them in context with the paleo reality, so we can get this right and get the facts and understanding to the people.
30 January 2008 at 7:44 PM
Re #1. Not sure what your point is Mark. Are you saying that RealClimate is part of the problem? That they are “looking at science through a political frame”? Can’t agree with you there.
There are those who believe in the IPCC and peer-reviewed science, and those who don’t. Those who don’t aren’t real scientists — they can’t be convinced by any evidence. Their conclusions aren’t tentative and testable.
Conservatives and fossil fuel companies have politicized this — not RealClimate or the IPCC.
30 January 2008 at 7:50 PM
That story pretty much kills the ridiculous conceit that we (reputable climate change scientists) are in this for the money.
30 January 2008 at 8:24 PM
No Joseph I’m not others are and that is what they say, not I. This is what we are up against in the propaganda war. Many people buy that over truth.
30 January 2008 at 8:28 PM
Pat Michaels also gave a nice little talk at my departments seminar series, aimed at all the earth and atmospheric science students with the goal of interdisciplinary education. He did so for a hefty fee. It reminded me of a traveling show…
30 January 2008 at 8:31 PM
It’s amazing how much money and time is being thrown around with media attention - money and time which should be devoted to learning more about our (potential) impact on the climate and whether or not there is actually any way we are significantly impacting it.
30 January 2008 at 8:41 PM
Sean O. Scientific debate takes place between the pages of scientific journals and in the hallways of real scientific conferences–you know, the ones where papers are refereed by experts in the field, not conference donors. There are no two sides to this issue–at least not two scientific sides. There are almost no scientific papers published that dispute the anthropogenic causation of climate change, and those few that are published are mostly not by climate scientists (e.g. Scafetta and West). There’s no middle ground here, Sean. It’s science or anti-science. Choose.
30 January 2008 at 8:47 PM
I’m sure some (real) scientists will show up. It’s just that they will carry unreal ideas.
30 January 2008 at 8:59 PM
Re Sean O @4: “I guess I don’t understand.”
I guess you don’t understand that there is simply no point in attempting an intellectual conversation with the other side when the other side has repeatedly demonstrated that it quite clearly is not at all interested in having an honest intellectual conversation about the facts and science of climate change, that it is quite willing to buy, cherry pick, bend, distort, and even outright fabricate “evidence” to support its position, and that it is quite willing to bald face lie in the process.
30 January 2008 at 9:18 PM
If wonder if Borat could be encouraged to give a talk …
30 January 2008 at 9:33 PM
Sean O (#4), Raypierre has addressed this very point in the previous article: It’s a no win situation. If you accept [the invitation to debate] you give the appearance that these skeptics have something to say that’s actually worth debating about — and give their bogus ideas more publicity. If you decline there are all sorts of squawks that “X won’t debate!” or implications that scientists have declared “the debate” (whatever that is supposed to mean) prematurely closed when in fact it is “just beginning.”
30 January 2008 at 9:58 PM
Go! Help the media understand that there are many (well, 400 or so) deluded souls out there that think they are scientists but that do not, in fact, understand AGW. Just make sure your contract ensures that can correct any errors in their versions of your material.
30 January 2008 at 10:14 PM
I have only contempt for conferences that narrow the spectrum of presentation and interaction by deliberate hostility towards smokers.
30 January 2008 at 10:21 PM
#4 Sean O
The way I see it, they will use this conference to introduce all the arguments brought to the table; and they will ignore the relevance of the relevant science, and merely present the conflicting views.
By giving each opposing argument equal time and relevance they can successfully keep the argument alive and keep the policy makers from getting the relevant understanding. On the relevant science side the evidence indicates that we have severely departed from natural variability and trend. ON the irrelevant science side they are still using fog generators.
Their main goal is to keep the argument alive and ignore relevance. This way they can have a big conference and make lots of claims like ’so and so’ says this and ’so and so’ disagrees, so climate scientists still can’t agree that there is really a problem.
Of course they can also say things like ’so and so’ was invited and didn’t show up so ’so and so’ who is supposedly an important climate scientist that thinks global warming is human caused, didn’t want to face the scientists that did come.
It will basically be a festival for disinformation potentials. They will take all the propaganda they foment and generate from the conference and disseminate it throughout the media in order to confuse the public and the policy makers as much as possible.
30 January 2008 at 11:42 PM
Agree. I’d rather see the scientists wasting their time
here on RC, where there is at least a partly receptive audience, than lending false legitimacy to a propaganda event.
(Wasn’t AEI the gang that invented the Iraq disaster, Richard Perle et al.? Nice job folks.)
31 January 2008 at 12:36 AM
I think you guys should sign up. Each person pick a skeptical talking point. For example,
1) DO events. Should be a big hit with that croud. Aren’t most Realclimate contributers on the list of “500 scientists” that supposedly endorse “unstoppable global warming?
2) Temperature Record (UHI, global warming has “stopped”)
3) “Iris”, recent Douglas/Spencer/Christy papers.
4) Solar and cosmic rays
5) The difference between what happened thousands of years ago (or millions) over thousands of years to what is happening, and will happen over the next 100 years. I’ve found that the most insurmountable talking point with the public is the idea that “the climate changed in the past, therefore . . . global warming is a fraud.” You know, “my mother died from natural causes, therefore, a bullet to the head will never kill me.” That kind of thing.
Donate the speaking fees to charity.
And if, for some reason, the “financial sponsers” don’t select your talks, you can do a post breaking down who got to speak and who didn’t. After all, as the great philospher Marc Morano once said, “Remember, there is nothing to fear from a free open scientific debate.” Certainly, the EPW minority blog wouldn’t cover such a onesided event . . .
31 January 2008 at 12:38 AM
Thank you for your replies to my earlier comment. However, I do not agree with Raypierre that non-discussion is the correct course. One does not give credence to another’s point of view by discussing it in a public setting. Rather, one gives credence to another’s point of view by NOT discussing it openly.
By ignoring the conference (or other venues) you simply give the other guy an ability to completely and totally control the message. Then you complain about that message after the fact. This is a perfect example of talking PAST the other person rather than TO the other person. My “definition” of talking PAST someone is that they say something and then in an entirely different venue, at another time, and to a different audience, a response is given. This isn’t dialog.
The ability to over-excite and exaggerate claims is not unique to the skeptics. Even Mr. Gore made some fairly outlandish “inferences” in his political movie. These “embellishments” probably did as much harm to the discussion as they did help it because they were not discussed and debated at the time of statement. My point is that allowing a statement to be said without immediate discussion only allows those that hear it to believe it as complete truth.
So I see nothing wrong with someone attending a talk by Mr. Singer (or one of the others that will be speaking) and politely but directly challenging any mis-statements that may have occurred in the discussion. While that conversation may not sway Mr. Singer, it may at least allow someone else in the audience to think more on the subject before they are swayed by a one-sided argument.
This site regularly challenges views directly. I am sure that there will be those that challenge this view and that discussion is appropriate and welcome. I am simply suggesting that it is equally correct for a conference that is sponsored by Heartland.
31 January 2008 at 12:52 AM
“I guess I don’t understand.” Sigh. Me either. I tried this. it went badly. I’m willing to bear some of the burden, that of impatience, but not for my assertion of truth.
http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.jsp?articleId=281474977235302#comments
31 January 2008 at 1:02 AM
> tobacco-science lectures
…
> > hostility toward smokers
You’re accusing the commenters of blaming the victim.
That’s misreading (at best) what was written above.
It’s the fake (”advocacy”) science they’re hostile to, not the poor fools and governments who get taken in.
http://www.thismodernworld.org/gra/camelcraword.jpg
http://blogging.la/archives/images/2006/07/smoking_10.jpg
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/03/health_cigarette_packet_rules/img/3.jpg
But, what the heck, it’s safer than diesel exhaust.
Mice breathed either downtown LA freeway air or the same air filtered to remove the ultrafines. The mice breathing freeway air had 55% more plaquing and the plaques were 25% bigger than the filtered air mice. And it all happened pretty quickly.
So far large scale epidemiologic studies haven’t been able to find a “no effect” level for air pollution. If there is one, we are a long way away from it in most urban areas. http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2008/01/a_small_air_pollution_risk_nan.php
31 January 2008 at 1:03 AM
It could be a very interesting “climate” conference. This should make the headlines in all the leading US newspapers, as well as the evening TV news. The Americans will just lap this up, believing everything hook line and sinker
[Response: Actually, I don’t think it will make any mainstream news. They have moved on from this kind of rubbish. Expect lots of blog activity demanding ‘debate’ though… - gavin]
31 January 2008 at 2:34 AM
There’s also desmogblog.com which has a search function in it. And good articles.
http://www.desmogblog.com/
31 January 2008 at 3:17 AM
And (almost forgot)
http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/
You’re forgiven if you think I’ve got it in for denial type characters.
31 January 2008 at 3:59 AM
Sean O (#21) wrote:
But does one grant them an advantage if one lets them choose the forum and set the terms of the discussion? And if they choose to let an honest climatologist present his views, this will simply be one of numerous presentations in a forum which places politics above science. It will lend a respectability to the forum itself, giving that forum a form of capital which the owners could not acquire by themselves.
It may be appropriate to debate even someone like Patrick Michaels — given the right forum — although I would strongly recommend giving it a great deal of thought before choosing to actually do so. However, I believe that the present situation is fairly clear-cut. The most productive thing which can be accomplished at that forum would probably best be handled by well-informed members of the audience (preferably without PhDs) who bring with them well-chosen questions — but they can in all likelihood expect to be shut down as soon as they become too inconvenient.
31 January 2008 at 5:08 AM
Hi!
I am from Portugal; recently I have found an unexpected denialist in the portuguese academic comunity. I read an interview and attendend one of his presentations. I am an economist but I found it relatively easy to confront him with what I think were plain misrepresentations to say the least. He is a big name here in Portugal and usually people tend to be reverent. He actually is a member of the American Meteorology Society. That´s why he astonished me with his claims.
His presentation (partly in english):
http://lisboaenova.org/pagina/images/stories/Ponto%20de%20Encontro/2008/24012008/Apresentacao_DelgadoDomingos_24012008_Final.pdf
He said such things as water vapour being the most important GHG; Combating CO2 emissions being such thing as an ideology, etc.
Actually I found a lot of counter arguments here and commented in my blog: http://futureatrisk.blogspot.com/2008/01/entrevista-ao-prof-delgado-domingos.html
Anyway he quotes some parts of the IPPC technical report. Can you confirm those quotes and tell me where I can get the full sentences where he picked it?
Thanks
José Sousa
[Response: Full IPCC reports are at www.ipcc.ch. stefan]
31 January 2008 at 5:10 AM
There are several things which are give-aways that this is “no ordinary scientific meeting.” The first is that they’re trying to deal with a ship which has sailed. By and large, the media, major corporations (including Big Oil), most governments, and the public have accepted the well-established science of anthropogenic climate change. The focus now is on the policies, engineerings, and economics of dealing with the problem. I guess these folks are trying to influence policy-making in the only ways they know how.
Second is the fact the pitch to the media and policymakers. I don’t see much of a pitch to scientists, when this is supposedly a conference about the science.
Third is the limited registration of 500 for a “major international conference,” especially when said 500 can include members of the public.
Fourth is the fact that the speakers list and topics, even for plenary sessions, have yet to be set—for a “major” conference occurring at the beginning of March! Heck, they seem to be still looking for speakers! Not much time for peer review of submissions. (I know, I know: “What peer review?”) And some of the remarks on the website about the conference are just plain laughable, like this gem from the “Background” page: “Actual surveys of climate scientists and recent reviews of the scholarly literature both show the so-called ‘skeptics’ may actually be in the majority of the climate science community. They do not lack scholarly credentials or scientific integrity, but a platform from which they can be heard.” I guess the peer-reviewed literature platform just ain’t cutting it anymore!
31 January 2008 at 5:36 AM
Sean O., you clearly misunderstand something important.
Scientific research is not a “point of view”
You write
> One does not give credence to another’s point
> of view by discussing it in a public setting.
Look who’s most eager to have “debates” — the people who don’t have _publications_ in the scientific work.
This was true of the tobacco “advocacy science” crap, is true of the religious “intelligent design” stuff, and, is true of the “anything but effective action” political response to ocean chemistry and atmospheric physics research as the effects of rapid fossil fuel use come in.
If there were any scientists able to argue in the literature that the ocean’s pH is not changing fast they’d publish. If there were any scientists able to argue that continuing to harvest codfish and salmon while the populations crash, they’d publish. If there were any scientists able to argue that there’s a “no effects” safe amount of small particle air pollution, they’d publish.
Debate is the last refuge of a prescientific scoundrel, it would appear on the evidence.
The question is whether it’s possible to _have_ a scientific culture, in this species, or not.
Remains to be seen. “Where is everybody intelligent” is the Fermi Paradox.
Note the Fermi Paradox applies on as well as off Earth.
31 January 2008 at 5:41 AM
Indeed it is doubtful that it will attract much news globally but it may peak the interest of some news networks and political groups who see the IPCC and the UN threatening americas sovereignty.
31 January 2008 at 7:31 AM
Re #29
Jose,
You can find the whole of the IPCC AR4 WG1 online from at http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html or http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm The home page of the IPCC is at http://www.ipcc.ch/ where there are links to other IPCC documents.
HTH,
Cheers, Alastair.
31 January 2008 at 8:17 AM
Sean O,
There’s a reason why the formal verbal debate is not one of the normal tools of science: it is a completely inappropriate way of resolving scientific questions. Such debates privilege rhetorical facility and appeals to existing prejudices in the audience over logic and evidence: that’s why politicians love them. There’s also a reason why real scientific conferences require papers to be submitted months in advance, and sent out to referees: if you don’t do this, your programme will be full of garbage, because only those who cannot get their papers into real scientific conferences will want to speak. Tell me, if the creationist/ID crowd were to organise a “conference” in the same way as the AGW denialists, complete with lack of peer review and similar distortions of the state of expert opinion, would you say prominent evolutionary biologists should take part? Speaking of which, this post reminds me of the response apparently used as standard by Robert May when invited to debate prominent creationists (though perhaps few have the combination of eminence and ego required to make use of it): “That would look great on your CV, not so good on mine!”. [Note to US readers: “CV” is British (and maybe Australian) for “resume” (with an acute accent over the final “e”).]
[Response: Most scientific conferences in climate require only an abstract and a registration fee. There is no pre-screening at AGU or EGU for instance - so anyone can go and present if they want. They fact that there are only a trickle of contrarian abstracts (one or two out of thousands) is an eloquent a demonstration of their lack of scientific bona fides in the community. - gavin]
31 January 2008 at 8:23 AM
Sean O.,
There is more than enough opportunity to engage in scientific debate within the pages of refereed scientific journals and at real scientific conferences. If a true skeptic had something to say, they could say it there. They do not–instead opting for the editorial pages of conservative rags (not exactly good sources of science) and “public debates”.
Biologists have been debating creationists since the time of Darwin. Thomas Huxley earned the epithet “Darwin’s Bulldog” for his fierce debating style. Still 49% of Americans believe in the Biblical creation myth as literal truth. I don’t call that progress.
Public debates bring out the worst in the anti-science types–even those who are nominally scientists, like Lindzen. They will trot out arguments they know are bogus to score points. Debate does not work when the two sides play by different rules. Scientists must stick to the truth or they cease to become scientists. Anti-science has no such scruples.
Put another way: “You cannot reason a man out of an opinion into which he was not reasoned to begin with.”–variously attributed to Ben Franklin and Johnathan Swift
31 January 2008 at 8:51 AM
Maybe a scientist or two who doesn’t have a financial incentive ought to show up and help them out with the facts,like for example that eleven of the last 12 years(1995-2006) were among the 12 warmest on the instrumental record of global surface temperature since since 1850.(IPCC Summary for Policymakers.In Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis.)
31 January 2008 at 9:06 AM
#21 Sean O,
I have wasted a substantial chunk of my time for the last 3 years dealing with so-called sceptics.
The problem with what you suggest is where you have a party in a debate who do not want to debate
honestly, but is determined to obfuscate in order to support a pre-determined position.
I’ve virtually stopped “debating” this issue now, in favour of leaving the ongoing physical process
of anthropogenic global warming to address the doubts and concerns of those who consider themselves
sceptics. They can say what they want: The physical reality is immutable; the longer they hang on, the
more ridiculous they become. By the way I don’t think your implicit assumption that there is a valid
debate about the reality of human driven climate change bears analysis. To see where the real debates
are see something like Dr Pierrehumbert’s recent post on the Cretaceous, it’s in the detail of climate change, not the broad acceptance of it’s reality and that it’s likely to be at least problematic.
#14 Cosmo,
I think Borat will be superfluous at such a gathering.
31 January 2008 at 9:28 AM
Perhaps the best answer to the call for debates is to return to real debate, with rules and judges. The fact of the matter is that laymen are not more able to “judge” the credibility of complex climatology than we are able to judge the proof of the four color theorem, or the correctness of string theory. What we need are a panel of judges to decide who won, just like we have in school debates.
How about a debate judged by a panel of Nobel laureates in the physical sciences? With teams doing the debating, one or two speakers and a gang of others online pulling up references, graphs, and validating statistical interpretations.
I’d pay to see that debate!
31 January 2008 at 9:45 AM
Thanks Alastair and Stefan
I had this one:
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_TS.pdf
“A report accepted by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change but not approved in detail”
,
but since it says, “not approved in detail” I was unsure if I could quote it;
I suppose the rest Chapters 1 to 11 (http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html) is the approved report.
31 January 2008 at 9:55 AM
Adding to Gavin’s response to #34, Fred Singer gave a presentaion of his arguments at the last EGU Assembly, where he showed that the models are wrong. See S.F. Singer (2007) “Test for validation of climate models from observational evidence” http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2007/05728/EGU2007-J-05728.pdf
Interestingly, all the audience could find to criticise was the 50 year long record of radiosonde data. They failed to see that Singer’s argument that because the models are wrong then AGW is not happening is a non-sequitur. In fact, because the models are wrong, we now find that AGW is proceeding faster than the models predict :-(.
31 January 2008 at 10:19 AM
RC: Whilst I am a devotee of your scientifically-focused posts, and I admire your ability to persevere in face of the attacks from the Heartland Institute and like-minded mouthpieces, this article does not fit your profile. It would have been better to let the meeting happen, acquire some abstracts, press releases, and even presentations (depending on how they are published) and then rip them efficiently, relentlessly, and heartlessly into the shards of dishonest propaganda that they truly are. I.e., you do your best work attacking the message, not the misguided and misbegotten messengers. I have no respect for the shills that will attend this meeting, and I respect RC, so I urge you to (as much as possible) take the high road. I know your opponents won’t, and by their actions we will know them for what they are.
31 January 2008 at 10:20 AM
“The purpose of the conference is to generate international media attention to the fact that many scientists believe forecasts of rapid warming and catastrophic events are not supported by sound science, and that expensive campaigns to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are not necessary or cost-effective.”
A quick question: Is it real climate’s position that there are no competant and unbaised scientists who would agree with the statement, “forecasts of rapid warming and catastrophic events are not supported by sound science.”
From my perspective as a layman it seems to me that “forecasts of rapid warming and catastrophic events” are based on climate models that have not been thoroughly verified and that necessarily make assumptions about many important aspects of the climate that are poorly understood (e.g. clouds, precipitation, the possible iris effect and water vapor feedbacks). Moreover, it seems to me that the climate models themselves estimate a wide-range of uncertainty about the future that range from relatively insignificant warming to catastrophic warming. So is it that unreasonable to say that the predictions may be the best we can develop now, but are not yet on a sound scientific basis?” It does not seem to me that a scientist who would emphasize these points would fall within the same category as cigarette lobby scientists.
31 January 2008 at 10:22 AM
Tim, what you’re thinking of is a refereed journal.
The process simply can’t be done at break-dancing speed suitable to television. It happens at the speed of thought, not faster, sometimes taking months to get details looked into.
Unlike debate, where the ‘thoughts’ are pre-canned and spring-loaded on triggers, and it’s considered utterly wrong to stop and think, let alone agree on a point that could be argued in any way.
The real question, I submit, is which _media_ and journalism people are getting invitations to this fancy affair along with the politicians.
And isn’t this basically a way of giving a lot of politicians a fancy good time in a New York hotel, without having to disclose any of it as payments by lobbyists for the industries putting up the money?
Someone should look up what else might be going on in the hotel, or the area, at the same time that warrants funding lots of politicians to be there. Good room service?
31 January 2008 at 10:35 AM
Have you considered holding a ‘counter-conference’? You could host panel discussions on the same topics as the Heartland’s circus and invite the media to cover it. And if it were held at a university in New York it wouldn’t necessarily be prohibitively expensive. This could be an opportunity to reach a lot of people hungry for real information, not the toxic fluff served up by the denialists. I think the contrast between scientists and loons would be apparent even to laypeople.
I know it would be a chore/challenge/expense to host but I, and I’m sure others, would contribute to offset expenses. And I’m sure you would get a lot of volunteers to help.
31 January 2008 at 10:41 AM
Tim McDermott,
The problem is that general physics/geophysics, etc. knowledge is not sufficient. The judges have to be experts themselves–and that is what is going on at conferences and in journals anyway. A “public” debate would not be edifying for the public and adds nothing to the scientific process. The system ain’t broke. The public just needs to become sufficiently knowledgeable that they can tell the real scientists from the vendors of snakeoil.
31 January 2008 at 11:00 AM
Nick: We in the US use the term CV distinctly from résumé - a résumé is usually a one-page document that does not include your publication history, etc.
Tim: Obviously, such a setting would be biased. Nobel laureates (and reality) have a well-known liberal bias!
31 January 2008 at 11:30 AM
The anonymously authored Real Climate article above is a disappointing smear job — i.e., you have nothing to say substantively, so you attempt to smear your intellectual opponents. Many of the world’s leading climate scientists from some of the world’s most prestigious universities will be giving presentations. Rather than behaving like children and throwing mud at them, perhaps you might behave like adults and discuss the science. Of course, that will never happen because open and honest debate is what you fear most.
I never thought I would see the day when scientific debate and inquiry, conducted by some of the most credentialed scientists in the world, would be considered a bad thing. But that is what happens when people are afraid of the truth.
Al Gore in one day rakes in more honorarium money than all of our speakers combined. Nevertheless, we have offered to pay his usual honorarium to speak at our conference, but have not heard back from Mr. Gore. We have invited Real Climate’s Michael Mann to come and speak at our conference, but Mr. Mann also has failed to respond to our invitation.
Unlike Real Climate, we do not attempt to stifle scientific inquiry. Instead, we encourage it. We are equal opportunity investigators of science. As the Real Climate article above notes, we have invited many members of Real Climate to come and give presentations. It is odd that Real Climate is invited to discuss the science in a professional, scholarly environment, yet throws stones from afar, where they do not have to subject their claims to scientific scrutiny.
Perhaps Real Climate will abandon their fear of public discourse, and will reconsider their decision to decline our invitation to speak at the conference. After all, isn’t honest and open scientific discussion a good thing? Please send me an email at taylor@heartland.org and, as my prior emails indicate, I would be happy to add you to our conference lineup.
With warmest regards,
- James
[Response: The level of chutzpah in your comment is breathtaking. Our ’substantive’ additions to the scientific knowledge is well attested to by our publications in the peer reviewed literature and is subject to scientific scrutiny every day. I will even venture to make a prediction that the number of peer-reviewed papers on climate science we have collectively authored in the last 5 years will be substantially more than all of your speakers put together. Honest and open scientific discussion is greatly to be wished for, and in fact, happens all the time. I don’t recall ever bumping into you at a real conference (AGU/AMS/EGU), but should you ever go, you’ll see it how it works first hand. Your institute plays no role in that because your approach is the anti-thesis of scientific inquiry - your conclusions have been decided before you look at the evidence. When you decide to stop abusing the scientific process for political gain, then perhaps we can talk. - gavin]
31 January 2008 at 11:31 AM
Paul contends: “From my perspective as a layman it seems to me that “forecasts of rapid warming and catastrophic events” are based on climate models that have not been thoroughly verified and that necessarily make assumptions about many important aspects of the climate that are poorly understood (e.g. clouds, precipitation, the possible iris effect and water vapor feedbacks). ”
Where on Earth are you getting your information? Rapid warming has already occurred. New York City was snow-free in January for the first time in 75 years. Arctic sea ice nearly disappeared this summer. Both alpine and polar glaciers are melting at an alarming rate. These are empirical facts, not model predictions.
And while global climate models do indeed have uncertainties, the role of CO2 in causing warming is not uncertain at all. All the available science–from paleoclimate studies to laboratory IR spectroscopy measurements supports it.
Paul, I don’t need to know the know the mass of a graviton to know that if I drop an apple it will fall. Likewise, I don’t have to know every detail of aerosol forcing or the role of clouds to know that if I add CO2–which persists in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, mixes at all altitudes, etc–things will heat up. Some results are robust and don’t depend on every detail of the models.
31 January 2008 at 11:46 AM
I’m a global warming denialist, and I’ve been doing it for free all along. You guys are right…I *am* dumb!
31 January 2008 at 11:51 AM
I sure hope someone — any of the real science bloggers, perhaps — will be live-blogging this event.
My imagination is it’ll go something along these lines:
http://www.girlgeniusonline.com/ggmain/strips/ggmain20080130.jpg
31 January 2008 at 11:57 AM
31 January 2008 at 12:27 PM
Paul wrote: “… from my perspective as a layman it seems to me that ‘forecasts of rapid warming and catastrophic events’ are based on climate models that have not been thoroughly verified and that necessarily make assumptions about many important aspects of the climate that are poorly understood …”
Rapid warming is not a “forecast”. Rapid warming is already being empirically observed. Catastrophic events are not a “forecast”. Catastrophic events, including unprecedented heat waves and droughts, are already occurring all over the world.
It is true that these empirically observed facts have shown the models to be flawed, since the observed effects are more extreme and are occurring more rapidly than forecast by the models.
The inherent uncertainty of the models and their forecasts is additional reason to move quickly and aggressively to mitigate anthropogenic global warming, not a reason to delay — especially since the necessary measures (phasing out fossil fuels in favor of maximally efficient use of clean, renewable, sustainable energy sources; reforestation; and organic agriculture) have numerous other benefits that more than offset any costs.
31 January 2008 at 12:47 PM
If you ever expect the voting public to act on your scientifc interpertations, then you need to be willing to debate these issues in a forum that the voting public can attend.
[Response: I give talks in public, generally for free, all the time. The number of the ‘voting public’ at this event will be minimal. - gavin]
31 January 2008 at 1:02 PM
$1,000 for a talk? $10,000 for a paper? As a Ph.D. student, I am a bit offended at how cheap they value my soul (and reputation).
31 January 2008 at 1:10 PM
Look at it from thier point of view. If you were convinced the whole world was jumping onto the alarmist bandwagon, while environmentalists swim in rising oceans of cash, what methods would you use to combat the hysteria? Hold a non-scientific climate science conferance? Produce a movie? Organize concerts across the globe to increase awareness?
[Response: No. I’d write serious papers, have serious conversations, go to serious conferences. That’s how scientific arguments go. If I were a politician or an advocate then I’d try some of those other things, but I wouldn’t pretend they were science. However, their tactics are self-defeating. If they truly think that the solutions proposed are not optimal, they need to suggest better solutions. Denying there is a problem at all makes it impossible for them to be taken seriously when solutions are discussed. - gavin]
31 January 2008 at 1:18 PM
Off Topic
Gavin,
I have a question based on the snow event going on in China. It occurs to me that AGW theory predicts more precipitation; do the models account for some of that falling as snow, causing the albedo to flip? In other words, increased snow cover would be a negative feedback.
I’m just wondering how that’s handled.
Thanks.
[Response: The models make snow if it’s cold enough, and snow cover persists if it doesn’t melt. However, though I haven’t looked in detail, the warming signal almost certainly overwhelms any potential increased deposition of snow signal (this is not something I’ve seen though) since snow cover goes down pretty robustly. - gavin]
31 January 2008 at 1:32 PM
So who got the invitation? Can it be forwarded? I nominate Eli. That would be fun to watch. I think Raypierre should go so he can have a pleasant chat with Marc Morano. Maybe some starving grad students should take up the challenge. $1,000 will buy a lot of Ramen noodles.
31 January 2008 at 1:33 PM
Louis-Philippe Caron said:”$1,000 for a talk? $10,000 for a paper? As a Ph.D. student, I am a bit offended at how cheap they value my soul (and reputation).”
It’s an election year. Souls are cheap.
31 January 2008 at 1:34 PM
[not joking]
http://www.heartland.org/NewYork08/newyork08.cfm
www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=22684 lists the speakers so far.
People will recognize the names.
The main page says:
“Discounts for registration are available for journalists and students to encourage their attendance. Free admission and travel and hotel scholarships are available to elected officials, scientists, economists, and policy experts who are recommended by sponsors and track chairmen.”
Suppose one knows an elected official who actually understands climate change issues and is supportive of actions to do anything about it. Suppose one contacted them, and suggested that:
(a) Here is a chance to experience firsthand attempted politicization of science in action.
(b) Please attend, and take a copy of http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php with you, and see how many they manage to use.
(c) If you actually hear anything that makes sense, write it down and let’s discuss it when you get back.
(d) And besides, it’s a free trip to NYC, on Heartland.
Anyway, I think there are politicians who have been convinced by science, but at least some do not understand the nature of the opposition as much as they might, and actually attending such an event might actually be useful to them. This is *not* to attempt debates, which are totally impossible in such a venue.
The one worrisome piece is the “recommended by sponsors and track chairman.”
I’d try this on a few of the local legislators … but I’m in California, and I suspect such people will have a hard time getting recommended…
31 January 2008 at 1:42 PM
Those who received an invitation to this conference, and feel qualified to speak on the the topic of anthropogenic warming, might have accepted the invitation AND formally requested to speak on the topic of a submitted abstract. Given the Heartland Institute’s agenda the latter would probably be denied, but let them go on the record with that denial. This approach might provide some kind of paper trail - a big trail if enough people tried it - showing that this meeting is not an open invitation for dialogue.
31 January 2008 at 1:54 PM
“Rapid warming is not a “forecast”. Rapid warming is already being empirically observed.”
I guess the question it is a question as to what one considers rapid warming and for what period. Using the instrument record and cherry picking starting dates, it is possible to show no warming, some warming, or relatively fast warming.
31 January 2008 at 2:08 PM
I’ll tell you, that money looks awfully good to a temp clerical worker like me. Maybe I could put together some inane piece of crap in formal manuscript format and register. If I could do it under an assumed name, that is…
31 January 2008 at 2:21 PM
As one who also suggested the AGW proponents must debate within public forums (and according to public forum rules, not formal debating or true scientific discourse rules), I need to weigh in. I think Sean has very valid arguments, but in the broadset sense. Any of the public forums mentioned above will have these guys at a disadvantage, but some can be handled, others pose a more difficult problem. I think this conference has far too many cards stacked them.
At first I thought Oh! Goody. I can go someplace and get support for my (scientific) skeptism. Unfortunately I then went to Heartland Institute’s website. Neve could get much past the pop-ups and advertising of everything, it seems, other than scientific stuff. (Maybe because they imply their site is still under partial construction…..)
31 January 2008 at 2:29 PM
Paul said, “Using the instrument record and cherry picking starting dates, it is possible to show no warming, some warming, or relatively fast warming.”
Again, where are you getting this. Any reasonable statistical analysis over time periods not dominated by “noise” shows we are still warming. Any fool can lie with statistics. What takes skill is using them to illustrate the truth. Or, as Andrew Lamb might have said of the denialists: [They] use statistics like a drunk uses a lamp pole–for support rather than illumination.
31 January 2008 at 2:34 PM
Re: #58. Looks like they’re testing a new propaganda buzzword: “Modern Warming.” Makes it sound “all-natural,” doesn’t it?
31 January 2008 at 2:48 PM
Michael,
Here’s what I don’t understand. OK, let’s say you’re with the Heartland Institute. You believe in free markets, and presumably you understand them at some level. You are apalled at the prospect of liberal-commie-pinko-fag-junkie-liberal-environmentalists destroying the free market in response to climate change. So, do you trot right out and say that the free market can handle the challenge and propose free market solutions and harness the creativity of corporate America? NO! Instead, you attack the science–which you don’t understand and which if pretty much a lead-pipe cinch. Not only does this appear to be attacking where your strengths arent, it appears to be driven by a deep insecurity as to whether free markets are up to the challenge. It’s as if you don’t really believe in the power of free markets and are just hoping no real challenges will come along and expose you. Pretty pathetic.
31 January 2008 at 2:49 PM
Paul, do you have a library where you can read the journal _Science_? Look for the copy arriving this weekend, as reported here:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/01/31/MNC9UOA3M.DTL
Test your preconcieved notions by reading the last words of that newspaper report about the Science article —
“In the Science report global warming and water, Barnett and his colleagues said that two-thirds of the measured climate change in the past 50 years has been “human-induced” - a conclusion Milly argued is understated.
——-
Does your reaction on reading that reveal any bias about what you want to believe? Does it lead you to be curious what’s in the actual published _Science_ article? I hope you want to read the real thing.
Don’t trust second-hand reports, read for yourself.
31 January 2008 at 2:49 PM
Re #43
Hank… I’m stunned. You, you… how can you even think a thing like that?
31 January 2008 at 3:07 PM
Ray Ladbury (#63) wrote:
Tamino did graphs that show quite eloquently there is no legitimate reason for claiming that the warming has stopped earlier today:
Please see (second and third graphs):
You Bet!
January 31, 2008
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/01/31/you-bet
What you will see is the same trend with the same variability we have been having since 1979 — with perhaps a slight rise in the trend in the past decade or so.
31 January 2008 at 3:16 PM
Paul said, “Using the instrument record and cherry picking starting dates, it is possible to show no warming, some warming, or relatively fast warming.”
“Again, where are you getting this. Any reasonable statistical analysis over time periods not dominated by “noise” shows we are still warming. Any fool can lie with statistics. ”
I haven’t questioned that the average global temperatures are increasing. I just question whether it is accurate to characterize the warming as “rapid”.
The rate of warming since 1860 is not especially rapid. The rate of warming since the 1930’s is not especially rapid. The rate of warming over the last ten years is not especially rapid. If you choose to look at warming rates since the late seventies, this is more concerning. Even so, as I understand the data, the warming rate of the last three decades is not substantially greater than the rate of increase from 1915 to 1945.
The point of my original post was that the alarming scenarios are the results of global climate model projections. Some one responded by saying that “Rapid warming is not a “forecast”. Rapid warming is already being empirically observed” I am not so sure. It depends on what one considers “rapid” and what period one is observing.
31 January 2008 at 3:33 PM
“And while global climate models do indeed have uncertainties, the role of CO2 in causing warming is not uncertain at all. All the available science–from paleoclimate studies to laboratory IR spectroscopy measurements supports it.”
I agree that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and increased CO2 emissions have likely caused some global warming. The extent that CO2 will cause future global warming is not well understood. The IPCC projections/scenarios show a range of uncertainty from relative modest warming (i.e. 1.1 degree by 2100) to extreme warming (6.4 degrees by 2100) under the scenario that assumes rapid economic growth. Furthermore, the range of uncertainty reflected in these scenarios suggests to me that we do not have a good answer to how much of the current observed warming has been caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
31 January 2008 at 3:44 PM
Ray,
Conferances meant to sway popular opinion are a function of a free market. (I assume you are using the term meaning ‘without government interferance’)
Holding a conferance with a one sided debate so that media can quote these ‘experts’ is no more deplorable than producing a one sided movie for pop-culture to reference. [edit]
[Response: The free market has nothing to do with scientific-sounding deceptions. The interesting thing is that true free marketeers are very strongly of the belief that distortions in markets caused by unpriced externalities cause inefficient allocations of goods. Since the cost of climate change is just such an externality, you’d think they would be clamouring for a carbon tax, and indeed many free market economists do (including Lomborg, Tol, and Nordhaus for instance). Heartland is much more interested in protecting special interests than in applying real free market economics to the problem. - gavin]
31 January 2008 at 3:51 PM
Re: #55,
Hoping not to get lost in the shuffle. Can anybody lend some info on my question?
Much obliged.
31 January 2008 at 4:24 PM
“The free market has nothing to do with scientific-sounding deceptions.”
On the contrary, a free market has everything to do with scientific truths, as well as scientific sounding deceptions. The market doesn’t care if its a lie or a truth. The hope in the free market is that people will be informed enough to distinguish between the two.
Many that believe in a free market are the same that are against socialitic ideas like carbon caps and credits.
[Response: You appear to be confusing free speech with free markets. They are not synonymous and they do not have much to do with each other. One is a political freedom, the other an economic one. You right to lie and dissemble is not connected in the slightest to the regulation of markets to prevent monopolies or the role of environmental regulations in pricing externalities. That you confuse the two is unfortunate. - gavin]
31 January 2008 at 4:31 PM
Walt, yes, they do. Check how long the snow stays on what area of ground, and compare it to the average annual snow cover over the long term for that latitude, and see if it makes a difference in the total. Weather is a blip. Longterm seasonal change is a feedback.
31 January 2008 at 4:36 PM
> the usual …
They got Monckton, McKittrick, and Michaels — total of twelve listed as accepting their offer, so far.
Not all “M”s. But there’s a trend of some kind already.
31 January 2008 at 5:07 PM
James M. Taylor of the Heartland Institute posted: “Unlike Real Climate, we do not attempt to stifle scientific inquiry. Instead, we encourage it.”
Unlike Real Climate, your organization has received $791,500 from ExxonMobil since 1998. None of that money funded any “scientific inquiry”. It funded deliberately and thoroughly dishonest propaganda campaigns with the explicit purpose of deceiving the American people about the scientific reality of anthropogenic climate change, so that the public would not demand mitigation measures that would reduce Exxon-Mobil’s profits. Heartland Institute is not a scientific organization. It is a propaganda mill funded by the fossil fuel industry.
31 January 2008 at 5:52 PM
No amount of debating, lying, confusing the truth, bickering and all that is going to change the fact of anthropogenic global warming. No matter how much any oil company invests money and energy into “meetings.”
31 January 2008 at 6:35 PM
Re: #75
Hank,
Thanks for trying but you really did not answer me. And if you aren’t familiar with the technical aspects of models, you aren’t the one to answer the question, which I originally aimed at Gavin.
The “weather” is what got me thinking about “climate”. I believe that my question was crafted carefully enough to elicit a technically sound answer.
31 January 2008 at 6:37 PM
Figen Mekik: “No amount of debating, lying, confusing the truth, bickering and all that is going to change the fact of anthropogenic global warming. No matter how much any oil company invests money and energy into ‘meetings.’”
No, but it can keep the public ignorant and confused about the fact of anthropogenic global warming for years, and has, until very recently, been extremely successful in doing so, thereby delaying public demand for phasing out fossil fuels, and thereby prolonging the period of accelerating consumption of fossil fuels and the associated trillion-dollar profits of the fossil fuel corporations.
Exxon-Mobil’s multi-million dollar investments in “debating, lying, confusing the truth, bickering and all that” — such as the nearly $800,000 they have paid to the Heartland Institute in the last ten years — have paid off many, many times over. To the grave detriment of all humanity, and indeed all life on Earth.
31 January 2008 at 6:43 PM
This is a pet peeve of mine. Please see post I wrote on similar topic a few days ago at:
http://lamarguerite.wordpress.com/2008/01/29/when-reading-mail-about-global-warming-consider-the-source/
There should be a law against misleading communications such as this conference invitation and the mail I copied in my post.
[Response: No there shouldn’t. The answer to bad information is better information. Prior restraint is more trouble than it is worth. But people should not hesitate to call out such rubbish when they see it. - gavin]
31 January 2008 at 6:45 PM
Re: 71 Paul, read what you just wrote: “The extent that CO2 will cause future global warming is not well understood. The IPCC projections/scenarios show a range of uncertainty from relative modest warming (i.e. 1.1 degree by 2100) to extreme warming (6.4 degrees by 2100) under the scenario that assumes rapid economic growth.”
The uncertainty is in the growth scenario assumed, not the physics of the greenhouse gasses. More growth=more greenhouse gasses=more warming–and yes it is an equation.
And if you do not think warming is rapid now, then when do you think warming has occurred more rapidly–and note what happened to species diversity during such paleoclimate epochs.
Where on Earth are you getting your information?
31 January 2008 at 6:50 PM
Secular #77,
You grassy knoll folks are hilarious, “Unlike Real Climate, your organization has received $791,500 from ExxonMobil since 1998″. You say that like it is a lot of money. Cripes, it wouldn’t fund the GISS for a week, or pay Al Gore’s energy bills over the 10 years in question. You do realize how foolish you sound caterwauling over 79k/yr, don’t you?
[Response: Actually it would fund the GISS modelling effort for just under two months. - gavin]
31 January 2008 at 7:17 PM
Re #47,
An exciting area of scientific inquiry here is the question of whether Mr. Taylor was able, without botox, to keep a straight face while typing that howler.
31 January 2008 at 7:30 PM
Re 72, Ah, yes, it was only a matter of time before somebody tried to equate what the Heartland Institute is doing to Al Gore’s (the political right’s bete noir) short-lived movie career. But Michael, last I saw, Al Gore was not a scientist and did not putport to be. Hell, he doesn’t even play one on TV. Last I saw, he was a private citizen.
Yeah, but climate change been berry, berry good to Al. Got him an Oscar and a Nobel Peace Prize, and there’s a bet on the books that pays 100:1 if he gets the Presidency, too at some point. BTW, the bookies have lowered the odds on that one from 12:1 to 8:1. But you know what, none of it would have happened if any politician from the right had been willing to stand up on stage and say we have to address climate change. Mr. Gore was very fortunate that his political enemies didn’t have the foresight to take away the moral and scientific high ground.
Now the question in my mind is whether they will have the hindthought to see that opposing the laws of physics isn’t such a good idea and maybe inject some ideas for dealing with climate change that wouldn’t offend their free-market sensibilities quite so much.
Peter Thompson, 79 K/yr sounds pretty damn good to a post doc doing climate science. Yes, it’s not a lot of money–enough to pay for a hack to spread disinformation full time. What always amazed me is how cheaply some folks will sell their honesty.
31 January 2008 at 7:57 PM
Ray said “The uncertainty is in the growth scenario assumed, not the physics of the greenhouse gasses. More growth=more greenhouse gasses=more warming–and yes it is an equation.”
This statement is simply false. The range of uncertainty is for the same economic scenario (i.e. rapid economic growth) and reflects uncertainty in the climate models. My source is the IPCC report itself. The report provides different ranges for alternative forcing scenarios. There is no simple equation for the effect of doubling CO2 concentrations because the expected climate response is based largely on the effects of positive feedbacks, which are currently not well understood. The impact of CO2 without feedbacks can be determined by formula, but the results are not particularly alarming.
31 January 2008 at 8:12 PM
Re 47; Mr. Taylor’s scathing diatribe is evidence that the decibel level is rising, especially by those whose purpose is to try to prevent the public from accepting the fact that the consensus of climate scientists have come to believe that AGW is occurring. They apparently feel that once the general public becomes aware of this, their cause will take a fatal blow. Ergo the loud protests from that corner.The “sound science” phrase is tell tale evidence that this effort is directed toward the aforementioned objective. It’s part and parcel of the party line.
True scientists might just as well speak at a debate on whether the Earth is either billions of years old or 6000 years old. Why dignify such assertions by indirectly acknowledging them with their attendence.
31 January 2008 at 8:14 PM
Timothy Chase (#69) says “Tamino did graphs that show quite eloquently there is no legitimate reason for claiming that the warming has stopped earlier today”. I can assure you that where I live the warming did indeed stop earlier today. I expect it to start up again tomorrow morning, though.
31 January 2008 at 8:37 PM
Peter #83: So, you’re saying that the payments would only be a problem if they were significantly higher, meaning a little bit of bought PR spin (read: fabrication with the intent to mislead the public) is OK? Or would any amount of money spent that way be acceptable?
31 January 2008 at 9:14 PM
James Taylor suggests that this conference will be loaded with high caliber scientists, may be, who dares challenge MIT’s enfant terrible Professor Lindzen and MSU Gurus such as Christy? But do they have a better temperature projection batting record rivaling Hansen which have predicted this warming since the 80’s… Especially now that most proud contrarians acknowledge Global Warming, it took a while, but they are on board the Global Warming Arctic Ocean cruise ship soon to be without Icebreaker escort, will they admit the error of their ways in projecting a cooling? Perhaps admitting errata will improve their batting stance, and actually predict some accurate climate? As some of their major league peers have already done…
Its hard to expect a prediction home run from contrarians when they never got to first base in the first place.
31 January 2008 at 9:21 PM
Just a note on what Hank wrote in #31. When asked whether he thought that there was extraterrestrial intelligent beings, Fermi replied “where are they” which goes well with Gandhi’s response when asked what he thought of Western civilization, “It would be a good thing”.
Some days are like that.
31 January 2008 at 9:41 PM
At Ray Ladbury:
Where on Earth are you getting your information?
I love baseless speculation! I’d guess Paul visited Roger Pielke Jr. Blog, clicked the link to William Briggs new blog, and watched the four videos by Bob Carter.
Carter’s discussion is purely statistical from the point of view of a geologist. The gist of the argument is that, from a geological perspective, the current state isn’t that much of an outlier. The things Carter says appears technically true, particularly if you account for uncertainty in the geological record. The difficulty is that Carter uses “not unusual” in the same sense that a person with an IQ of 140 isn’t an not unusual. If you look around a bit, you’ll find plenty of these people. You’ll even find some with IQ’s of 150!
Also, the issue of cause and effect is entirely missing in the Carter’s talk.
31 January 2008 at 10:40 PM
Thank you Gavin, for your prompt reply dismissing the ‘oughta be a law’ notion above.
“The trouble with fighting for human freedom is that one spends most of one’s time defending scoundrels. For it is against scoundrels that oppressive laws are first aimed, and oppression must be stopped at the beginning if it is to be stopped at all.” H.L. Mencken (1880-1956)
31 January 2008 at 11:05 PM
Why don’t you - and every other legitimate climate scientist you know - call their bluff: perhaps the media would be interested in how many of you are turned down (and what evidence you had intended to present)!
31 January 2008 at 11:55 PM
Peter Thompson (#83) wrote:
Exxon’s endeavors are well-documented:
… and the Heartland Institute’s history of endeavors is also well-documented:
1 February 2008 at 12:53 AM
This will be covered fully in several of Fox News programs. Bet on it.
1 February 2008 at 1:27 AM
Re #42 - “It does not seem to me that a scientist who would emphasize these points would fall within the same category as cigarette lobby scientists.”
I think people are missing the point about the cigarettes, Fred Singer (mentioned in the article) was a “cigarette lobby scientists” and has been a prominent shill for the fossil fuel industry.
Quoting from his wikipedia entry - “Singer is also skeptical about the connection between CFCs and ozone depletion, between UV-B radiation and melanoma and between second hand smoke and lung cancer and proposed that the Martian moon Phobos is a space station built by Martians.”
1 February 2008 at 3:02 AM
Re #71: Paul writes
Are you sure? I read the original IPCC report and cannot find this. In the WG1 Executive Summary it says
“The multi-model mean SAT warming and associated uncertainty ranges for 2090 to 2099 relative to 1980 to 1999 are B1: +1.8°C (1.1°C to 2.9°C), B2: +2.4°C (1.4°C to 3.8°C), A1B: +2.8°C (1.7°C to 4.4°C), A1T: 2.4°C (1.4°C to 3.8°C), A2: +3.4°C (2.0°C to 5.4°C) and A1FI: +4.0°C (2.4°C to 6.4°C).”
So the extremes are indeed 1.1 and 6.4 degrees, but for different scenarios.
In Figure 10.24 I again see the range of (roughly) 1.1 - 6.4 degrees, but again for different scenarios.
(And note that these are increases relative to 1980-1999, not relative to pre-industrial, i.e., already realized warming comes on top of this.)
Again, where did you get your numbers?
Anyway, for the sake of argument, why would you want to believe in 1.1°C rather than 6.4°C? Isn’t it prudent decision making to prepare for the most likely outcome (i.e., 4.0°C for the A1FI emissions scenario), and at least take into account the worst-case possibility?
Consider also this: the mean global increase in temperature is just a number, although a popular and useful one. As you correctly note, the CO2 forcing effect is precisely computable from theory and hypothesis free; it’s the feedbacks that bring in the uncertainty. So, when in spite of recklessly pumping out CO2, we still don’t see more than 1.1 degs average warming, that means that some powerful negative feedbacks are almost canceling out the initial forcing. It could be water vapour (although this feedback is currently thought to be well understood) or cloud cover. It could be that the distribution of water vapour changes, e.g., making the tropics more arid and a better radiator (and those peasants living there just out of luck). Or the large-scale distribution of clouds changes due to a changing global circulation pattern.
What I am getting at, is that 1.1 deg warming for this scenario is not “a small climate change”: rather, it is a huge, and hugely intrusive, climate change that just happens to be almost thermally neutral
1 February 2008 at 3:08 AM
Re 91, what Fermi actually said when asked the alien question was “why aren’t they here?”
1 February 2008 at 3:26 AM
#47 James M. Taylor
Either you have not looked at the aggregate science or I am left to suspect that you are naive and/or ignorant of the relevant data? Your own words are strongly indicative.
You state regarding real climate: “you have nothing to say substantively”.
Obviously you have not read the material on this web site. Maybe, you have apparently written these words based on your view of a single article and not the aggregate work on the site, the preponderance of evidence deeply discussed and considered?
“Of course, that will never happen because open and honest debate is what you fear most.”
If you had read the large numbers of articles on this web site as well as the evidence presented by our own governments scientists much of which is referenced here, you would realize that all they do here is open and honest debate, albeit in a scientific manner of consideration and analysis.
You don’t seem to understand that credentials are less important that evidence, whether it be in fact or proxy. For example, you may be able to get an expert in infectious diseases to comment on Global warming… but how is that relevant? You can get a writer to comment on global warming… but how is that relevant?
You say that you “do not attempt to stifle scientific inquiry” I would like to see substantial evidence of that. Your words indicate to me, when considered in the context of the argument, and the apparent context indicated on your web site, that your goal may very well be to stifle relevant scientific inquiry and/or confuse the issues regarding evidence and understanding with your “most credentialed scientists in the world”. I would love it if I am wrong, so please do prove me wrong. Are these “credentialed scientists” really presenting relevant work?
You state that you encourage scientific inquiry. But I am concerned that you may not understand what the word relevance means? You say “We are equal opportunity investigators of science.” Please feel free to read my thoughts on that matter above in post #19.
Please prove me wrong. I would love to be wrong. I look forward to the media output from your conference proving me wrong. If it weighs the relevance of the evidence in context, with relevant arguments and relevant studies that are holistic, “open and honest’ in their scope… well, I very much look forward to that. Keep in mind though that when I say honest, I also mean honorable. I’d really love to see your media output from the conference meet that criteria.
You state: “It is odd that Real Climate is invited to discuss the science in a professional, scholarly environment”. If you really want to discuss this in a “professional, scholarly environment”, then instead of having your own little conference, you should have had them all submit their papers at the AGU in December… or are you unaware of the AGU?
You state: “After all, isn’t honest and open scientific discussion a good thing?” Of course it is. For me, I like evidence, so I will anxiously await reading the output from your conference to see if it is honest and open. I am just suspicious, so, please prove me wrong.
On your affiliated web site http://www.globalwarmingheartland.org/ you have a section called Debate challenge Issued by: Dennis Avery (an agricultural analyst); Chris Horner (an attorney); Steven Milloy (JunkScience.com and DemandDebate.com); Lord Christopher Monkton (A consultant and Journalist). Not exactly “credentialed scientists”. Look, people pick their bias based on their interests, abilities and even limitations. Honor, of late, is rarely a part of the equation unfortunately. Open mindedness without undue bias is also hard to find sometimes. Depends on where you are or what environment.
People may like to confuse issues for their particular reasons. But science is not about confusion, it’s about seeking the truth through open minded questions, examination, verification, reason and relevance. It is unfortunate that some wish to obfuscate the relevant science with obtuse arguments that have less relevance in the context of aggregate reality. Even the skeptics will eventually realize what is going on, it’s just that the longer we wait the more costly it will be. In the mean time it is up to those that understand to hold the line of integrity.
With best regards,
- John
Gavin, thanks for your note as well. I wrote mine before I scrolled down to see yours. I strongly support your response to this person. Their site has an article saying Crichton is Right? Is Michael Crichton one “of the world’s leading climate scientists “?
Ray #48
Thank you for your response on that issue. The facts show that we have departed from natural variability and significantly altered the forcing in the atmosphere. We all know that we have already warmed, it’s not a prediction, it’s simple fact. All these current effects are not some mysterious future, they are not a forecast, this is happening now.
#61 Paul
If you examine the paleo record you would notice that actually we were supposed to be going into an ice age. I’m not an expert, but the facts and proxies together show that we have altered the natural cycle and the forcing level. It’s pretty obvious. Just put it in perspective with past cycles and forcing. Questioning whether it is rapid is in my opinion, not the argument. but if you consider that we probably should be cooling without anthropogenic influence, then this warming is more than rapid; it is a complete reversal of the natural trend. That is worse than rapid.
SInce this is a nonlinear event, and the IPCC are conservative by the nature of the method, you can more than reasonably expect that their estimates are exactly what they are supposed to be, conservative. Your questions regarding whether it is caused by GHG’s… well, you need to study this more. You think it’s not alarming, but that question is too easily subject to bias of perspective. It sort of depends on what you consider alarming or rapid change. This warming is clearly rapid in its potentials and its relationship to paleo records.
What do you mean by alarming? If you mean significant changes to economic capacity related to resource availability and allocation, increased climate energy and momentum of weather systems influenced by climate change, latitudinal climate shift altering regional weather patterns, economic strains based on the climate region shifts, more frequent intense droughts, floods, hurricanes, tornados, snow storms, human migration, national identities being strained to the point of increased tensions that could lead to cross national tensions and regional conflicts based on resource scarcity possibly leading to the temptation to use nuclear weapons as tensions increase… or did you mean something else by alarming.
I’m not being ‘alarmist’ I didn’t do that analysis. It came from other sources. Please read:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/12/the-forecast-in-the-streets/
http://www.uscentrist.org/news/2008/the-age-of-consequences/
The links at the bottom of the article on the centrist site include the security reports from the Center for Naval Analysis; The German Advisory Council on Global Change and the Center for Strategic International Studies.
1 February 2008 at 5:50 AM
Re 82 (Ray) and 86 (Paul)
IPCC WG1 SPM, Table SPM 3, p.13:
Scenario - Best estimate (Likely range)
Constant rate 2000 - 0.6 (0.3-0.9)
B1 - 1.8 (1.1-2.9)
A1T - 2.4 (1.4-3.8)
B2 - 2.4 (1.4-3.8)
A1B - 2.8 (1.7-4.4)
A2 - 3.4 (2.0-5.4)
A1FI - 4.0 (2.4-6.4)
Thus, the 1.1-6.4 range is the extreme of “likely range” of all scenarios ; if the “rapid economic growth” is the A1FI, the range is 2.4-6.4.
Best
Yves
1 February 2008 at 7:38 AM
Being interested in both sides of the debate, I would like to see more of the science presented and discussed.
1 February 2008 at 8:28 AM
Paul D,
The evidence suggests that if anything, the models underpredict positive feedbacks. And even for model predictions, distributions of temperature ranges are skewed right, especially as we go into the future–and the 3 degrees represents the a median number. The fact that you take comfort in uncertainty just indicates that you don’t understand the science or the statistics.
1 February 2008 at 9:17 AM
/begin rant
I’m getting a little sick of the antics of the likes of the Heatland Institute.
If these people have an issue with the currently accepted scientific view of recent climatic change, they can bloody well play by the rules if they wish to be taken seriously. This doesn’t include organising your own conferences. This means, perhaps, toddling off to a real conference, submitting an abstract and discussing their views with the rest of the relevant scientific community. Maybe they could present a paper/abstract and have their current thoery discussed. Maybe they could cite their evidence for their current thinking. Perhaps building up a decent publication record would help.
But no. They don’t play by the rules that the rest of us have to (and nothing is quite so scary as defending your research work in front of an audience of your peers… except maybe killer bees). They organise fun, sponsored events like this, which will accomplish nothing, and in my eyes, further reduce what little integrity that the likes of Lindzen and Cristy have left.
It’s high time we let this lot pontificate in their own time, on their own, and got back to work on reducing the amount of Greenhouse gases being emmitted into the atmosphere.
\end rant
1 February 2008 at 9:17 AM
I would like to make a correction to a prior post. I suggested that the entire range of uncertainty reflected in the rapid growth scenario from the IPCC is based on model uncertainty. In fact, while the projections in the rapid growth scenario reflect similar economic and population growth assumption, they do appear to include a range of forcings based on different assumptions regarding future technology and energy use patterns. So some the uncertainty reflected in the scenarios does to a degree reflect differences in forcing assumptions.
However, my basic point that there is a considerable range of uncertainty in the GCM is correct. I think this uncertainty is reflected in the following post by raypierre on this blog. He writes:
“The current crop of models studied by the IPCC range from an equilibrium sensitivity of about 1.5°C at the low end to about 5°C at the high end. Differences in cloud feedbacks remain the principal source of uncertainty. There is no guarantee that the high end represents the worst case, or that the low end represents the most optimistic case. While there is at present no compelling reason to doubt the models’ handling of water vapor feedback, it is not out of the question that some unanticipated behavior of the hydrological cycle could make the warming somewhat milder — or on the other hand, much, much worse. Thus, the question naturally arises as to whether one can use information from past climates to check which models have the most correct climate sensitivity.” http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/12/natural-variability-and-climate-sensitivity/langswitch_lang/wp
Ray says:
“The fact that you take comfort in uncertainty just indicates that you don’t understand the science or the statistics.”
I don’t necessarily take comfort in the uncertainty, but I think it is important to acknowledge that it exists. If we knew for certain that a doubling of CO2 concentrations would lead to the high end of the estimates, it would be reasonable to pursue much more drastic policies. Given the level of uncertainty, however, I think it is reasonable to pursue more prudent, less drastic policy. Moreover, it is important to recognize the science is not settled as many frequently claim.
1 February 2008 at 9:39 AM
What an interesting discussion!
Diddnt know much about exxon and heartlands fundings, and ill look into them more now.
I love the workl that you guys do here, keep showing us the science, and keep being honest!
Im involved with an organisaton called GLACIER. (Global Legal Action on climate and International Environmental Responsability.
We are relatively new,and are composed of environmental economists and lawyers. We may have technicalities we need to go over, before our court cases (June 5th). Do you mind if we have any questions we can ask you, the contributrd to Realclimate?
Let me know! Also any of you located in Montreal Canada,or nearby?
Alex
1 February 2008 at 9:50 AM
Paul writes:
[[If we knew for certain that a doubling of CO2 concentrations would lead to the high end of the estimates, it would be reasonable to pursue much more drastic policies. Given the level of uncertainty, however, I think it is reasonable to pursue more prudent, less drastic policy.]]
But with real uncertainty in the results to worry about, “less drastic” would not be “more prudent.” You don’t plan for everything coming out okay, you plan for the worst and hope for everything to come out okay.
[[ Moreover, it is important to recognize the science is not settled as many frequently claim.]]
The details are not settled. That global warming is A) real, B) anthropogenic, and C) a serious problem is indeed settled.
1 February 2008 at 10:03 AM
Paul says, “Moreover, it is important to recognize the science is not settled as many frequently claim.”
That depends on what you mean by “the science”. If you mean the forcing due to greenhouse gasses–that is settled. Add CO2 to the atmosphere and it will be warmer than it would be otherwise. That there are positive feedbacks is also settled. Now, where there is less certainty is the magnitude of the positive feedbacks. However, I would suggest that if you present a physical system to a knowledgeable physicist and say that it has positive feedbacks of unknown magnitude, the reaction of said physicist is much more likely to be “Holy S***!!” than it is to be “Well, just flip the switch and it probably won’t blow up.” Moreover, the fact remains that the skew of the distributions favors higher forcing more than lower forcing. See:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/10/the-certainty-of-uncertainty/langswitch_lang/wp
More disturbing, there is evidence that not all positive feedbacks are reflected in the models–e.g. outgassing of CO2 and CH4 from thawing permafrost, etc. So the science is sufficiently settled to say with a high degree of confidence (>90%) that if we keep adding CO2 to the atmosphere, the positive feedbacks will eventually kick in and tear the system from any control we currently exercise. Anyone who takes comfort in the fact that we don’t know whether this tipping point comes in 1 year or in 50 years is a fool
1 February 2008 at 10:07 AM
Re Paul @ 105: “If we knew for certain that a doubling of CO2 concentrations would lead to the high end of the estimates, it would be reasonable to pursue much more drastic policies. Given the level of uncertainty, however, I think it is reasonable to pursue more prudent, less drastic policy.”
The logic of your last statement escapes me, and does not strike me as at all a prudent course to take risk management. It certainly does not seem to be the course chosen by the insurance industry. Given the level of uncertainty, and the fact that we do not know for certain that a doubling of CO2 concentrations will NOT lead to the high end of the estimates, it is reasonable and more prudent to proceed taking the high end estimates into account.
1 February 2008 at 10:14 AM
This is a great post. While those of us in science understand what normal conference procedures are, much of the public, and students, don’t. If a bunch of people (usually white guys–sorry) talk at a podium with power points and have graphs and a good vocabulary, at an event called a conference, then it looks and smells somewhat like the legitimate thing.
It’s very important to point out the differences in content, process, and agendas here. Thanks!
1 February 2008 at 10:21 AM
> Re 91, what Fermi actually said … was “why aren’t they here?”
> Comment by John Gribbin
Good to see _your_ name here!
1 February 2008 at 11:01 AM
Jim Eager writes: “Given the level of uncertainty, and the fact that we do not know for certain that a doubling of CO2 concentrations will NOT lead to the high end of the estimates, it is reasonable and more prudent to proceed taking the high end estimates into account.”
I didn’t say that we should not con