Climate science from climate scientists...
This month’s open thread on climate topics. The annual ranking horse race is in full swing, discussions of extreme weather abound, Arctic sea ice is reaching it’s annual minimum, and the future of evidence-based policy making seems dim. Oh well.
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My latest spreadsheet update shifted my estimated AGW crossing of 1.5C backward to the end of this year.
That took me by surprise, because my earlier spreadsheets still had the long-term AGW trend crossing 1.5 threshold nearer to 2030.
I wonder, has anyone recently released a revised *official* estimate for when we cross the ‘safety threshold’? I haven’t seen anything in the press about a sudden shortening of that time horizon (not that corporate press cares anyway).
Due to the 2023 transient in compensated SST that I’ve apparently detected, I’m also surmising that spring of 2023 was when we *effectively* crossed that 1.5C threshold, even if the long-term uncompensated AGW trend doesn’t show it.
Since so far no one in authority is acknowledging any warming from Hunga Tonga, I presume my finding is relegated to the dust bin of irrelevance, even if it is true (which it admittedly might not be).
https://x.com/cheryl_josie/status/2092366525332324555?s=20
Based on that plot, I’m assuming that the extreme weather this year will be more of the same we’ve had since 2023, and that the transient I detected will obscure apparent climate change extreme weather indicators through 2030, when people will suddenly wake up and smell the coffee because things will radically and abruptly change for the worse on a year-by-year basis after that.
By the way, I’m using the known Pinatubo magnitude and duration of global cooling as a sanity check on my method. What I’m seeing in my plot roughly aligns with what was published on Pinatubo, so apparently my method does ‘work’, even if I can’t prove it.
Anyway, I’d love some additional feedback on my project, if anyone has any to offer. If not, that’s okay, I understand that people are busy with their own lives and more interested in the professional side of things than they are interested in my amateur stumbling. It’s just an FYI that I’m still updating my plots and wondering if I’ve found something relevant.
I did comment at the bottom of the ENSO discussion, but it looks like maybe everyone has moved on from that topic already and missed my post.
I would like to mention that the heated debates here on the ‘putative’ existence of anthropogenic global warming seem pointless to me.
It’s not an opinion. It’s some of the most solid science in existence, as evidenced by the mountains of peer-reviewed literature into the facts, as well as into the scientific perception of consensus.
I’m finding it a chore having to scroll past all that noise to find meaningful discussion of the actual science. It’s difficult enough finding my way through it as a ‘solitary practitioner’ without being distracted by so much chaff that the fossil fuel industry is churning out into the echo chamber.
The disingenuous denial that is based in secret 1970s corporate studies confirming that scientific consensus has been in evidence since 2015 when we first learned of those secret corporate studies..
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16092015/exxons-own-research-confirmed-fossil-fuels-role-in-global-warming/
We should have progressed beyond this point by now..