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Unforced variations: Sep 2019

1 Sep 2019 by group

This month’s open thread for climate science topics. A new two-part community assessment of tropical storms and climate change is online at BAMS: Knutson et al. (2019a ; 2019b). And for those interested in Arctic Sea Ice, there is always the NSIDC.

References

  1. T. Knutson, S.J. Camargo, J.C.L. Chan, K. Emanuel, C. Ho, J. Kossin, M. Mohapatra, M. Satoh, M. Sugi, K. Walsh, and L. Wu, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 100, pp. 1987-2007, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1
  2. T. Knutson, S.J. Camargo, J.C.L. Chan, K. Emanuel, C. Ho, J. Kossin, M. Mohapatra, M. Satoh, M. Sugi, K. Walsh, and L. Wu, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 101, pp. E303-E322, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0194.1

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread

IPCC Special Report on Land

8 Aug 2019 by group

Thread for discussions of the new special report. [Boosting a comment from alan2102].

Climate Change and Land
An IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems


Land degradation accelerates global climate change. Al Jazeera English
Published on Aug 8, 2019

New UN report highlights vicious cycle of climate change, land degradation. CNA
Published on Aug 8, 2019

New IPCC Report Warns of Vicious Cycle Between Soil Degradation and Climate Change. The Real News Network
Published on Aug 8, 2019

Filed Under: Carbon cycle, Climate impacts, Climate Science, Greenhouse gases, heatwaves, hydrological cycle, IPCC, Solutions

Forced responses: Aug 2019

31 Jul 2019 by group

Bi-monthly thread on climate solutions and responses.

Filed Under: Open thread, Solutions

Unforced variations: Aug 2019

31 Jul 2019 by group

This month’s open thread on climate science topics. Arctic sea ice minimum is upcoming, global temperatures running at (or close) to record levels, heat waves, new reconstructions for the last 2000 years, etc… Surely something there to discuss?

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread

Unforced variations: July 2019

2 Jul 2019 by group

This month’s open thread for climate science discussions.

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread

Absence and Evidence

25 Jun 2019 by group

Guest commentary by Michael Tobis, a retired climate scientist. He is a software developer and science writer living in Ottawa, Ontario.

A recent opinion piece by economist Ross McKitrick in the Financial Post, which attracted considerable attention in Canada, carried the provocative headline “This scientist proved climate change isn’t causing extreme weather – so politicians attacked”.

In fact, the scientist referenced in the headline, Roger Pielke Jr., proved no such thing. He examined some data, but he did not find compelling evidence regarding whether or not human influence is causing or influencing extreme events.

Should such a commonplace failure be broadly promoted as a decisive result that merits public interest?

[Read more…] about Absence and Evidence

Filed Under: Climate impacts, Climate Science, Communicating Climate, Hurricanes, IPCC

Unforced Variations vs Forced Responses?

6 Jun 2019 by group

Guest commentary by Karsten Haustein, U. Oxford, and Peter Jacobs (George Mason University).

One of the perennial issues in climate research is how big a role internal climate variability plays on decadal to longer timescales. A large role would increase the uncertainty on the attribution of recent trends to human causes, while a small role would tighten that attribution. There have been a number of attempts to quantify this over the years, and we have just published a new study (Haustein et al, 2019) in the Journal of Climate addressing this question.

Using a simplified climate model, we find that we can reproduce temperature observations since 1850 and proxy-data since 1500 with high accuracy. Our results suggest that multidecadal ocean oscillations are only a minor contributing factor in the global mean surface temperature evolution (GMST) over that time. The basic results were covered in excellent articles in CarbonBrief and Science Magazine, but this post will try and go a little deeper into what we found.

[Read more…] about Unforced Variations vs Forced Responses?

References

  1. K. Haustein, F.E.L. Otto, V. Venema, P. Jacobs, K. Cowtan, Z. Hausfather, R.G. Way, B. White, A. Subramanian, and A.P. Schurer, "A Limited Role for Unforced Internal Variability in Twentieth-Century Warming", Journal of Climate, vol. 32, pp. 4893-4917, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0555.1

Filed Under: Aerosols, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Greenhouse gases, Instrumental Record

Unforced Variations: June 2019

3 Jun 2019 by group

This month’s open thread for climate science discussions. Remember discussion about climate solutions can be found here.

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread

Forced responses: May 2019

2 May 2019 by group

A bimonthly open thread on climate solutions and policies. If you want to discuss climate science, please use the Unforced Variations thread instead.

Filed Under: Open thread, Solutions

Unforced variations: May 2019

2 May 2019 by group

This month’s open thread about climate science topics. For discussions about solutions and policy, please use the Forced Responses open thread.

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread

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