Heat Rising at the Washington Post
The Washington Post has published a second op-ed in as many days about global warming ("Spinning Global Warming", By Robert D. Novak, Page A19, April 03, 2006–story is no longer available on the website, but the Chicago Sun Times version is available here). In this one, Novak claims that Hansen in 1988 over-predicted global warming by 400% (a story originated by Pat Michaels and subsequently propagated by Michael Crichton). This story is a fabrication that has already been set right by us in 2004.
Smearing Hansen, a leading climate scientist and member of the National Academy of Sciences, appears to have become sport among contrarian commentators (see our earlier discussions here and here). As ad hominem attacks and "shoot the messenger" strategies are often the last refuge for those losing the substantive debate, this might be viewed by some as a positive sign, indicative of just how intellectually bankrupt the contrarian movement has become.
We are Earth scientists. We are not part of a vast conspiracy to perpetrate a hoax, nor are we crowd-following herd animals. We are concerned about the world we are leaving to our children. We have not asked James Hansen, but we would venture a guess that his motives are similar. As scientists we have a duty to speak out when our findings strongly suggest that a dangerous and harmful development is underway - just like someone who sees smoke billowing out of a house has a duty to call the fire brigade.
As scientists we are of course not above criticism. The public, or the fire brigade, is very welcome to ask critical questions. What exactly do you see - is it just smoke, or do you see flames? How much smoke? Are you sure you're not exaggerating this? Could there be some other explanation? Readers of this site know that we are very happy to discuss every piece of evidence publically, critically and in great detail - that's what this site is for.
We've become used to a crowd of by-standers hanging around the phone booth while we're making the call. "Hey, you're making it all up to be in the media and get rich!" they shout. Or "Hey, you actually care about the fire being put out, so you're politically motivated!" Or they shout: "How dare you call the fire brigade when you're only 90% sure there is a fire! Talk more about uncertainty!" We do care, of course. And we are professionally trained to not let this distort our judgement, to take a step back and critically examine all the evidence.
What is happening at the Washington Post, unfortunately, has nothing to do with a critical examination of the evidence for an imminent danger. It has nothing to do with a quest to come to a real understanding of the issue. The editorials mentioned above show no respect for the truth; they shamelessly use distortion and deception to discredit climate science and climate scientists. It is hardly new that us humans can go to great lengths when it comes to denying unwelcome truths - what is surprising and disturbing, however, is that the Washington Post does not seem to have a quality control in place that ensures minimal journalistic standards, such as intellectual honesty and basic fact-checking.
4 April 2006 at 11:37 AM
Please stay calm, guys, and write a patient letter with a point by point refutation for the Post. If they don’t publish it, then there really is something to worry about
4 April 2006 at 11:45 AM
It’s all about journalistic opinion credentials, and the false balance angle so common in newsrooms, especially in editorial, but they’ll take your op-ed. Write it now and send it to Movak’s home paper too. Perhaps separately from two writers?
4 April 2006 at 11:51 AM
RE #1: Casper Henderson has the right idea, but I would take it a step further. I don’t think the Post exercises editorial control over their columnists; they just published every piece that their columnists submit, and the Recent Time article apparently has caught the attention of Messers Will and Novak. People in the Climate Science community (and scientists everywhere) are righfully alarmed about the misrepresentation of the science, and I think it would be well within the rights of the authors of RealClimate, or anyone else in the Climate SCience community, to ask for column space (more than just a letter) to debunk the two columns.
4 April 2006 at 11:53 AM
In the UK, Hansen could sue the WP, the printer, and the author for defamation, and have the pleasure of the scientific record being assessed in open and well reported court.
Is this option open to him in the US, or would he need to bring the case over here ?
[Response: Hansen (and some of us as well) are considered “limited public figures”. This makes it extremely difficult to win a libel or slander lawsuit, even thought it might be a slam dunk for any ordinary citizen. The perpetrators of these sorts of attacks know that, and they exploit it as we can see in this example. ]
4 April 2006 at 11:57 AM
#1
The Post op-eds will be widly reprinted. Any letter to the editor would only appear in the Post. To be effective, they would have to write to the many papers that have printed the op-eds, and hope the papers print the letters. Not a very effective way to deal with the problem.
4 April 2006 at 12:17 PM
As a biologist with a journalism degree and currently studying law the response is true. They are limited public figures and open to criticism from the unqualified, as shameful and cowardly as that is. Is it intentional? Sure but these jokers really don’t understand the science only the polictical hackery.
4 April 2006 at 12:18 PM
I am not a scientist, but I am a (mostly behind the scenes) lobbyist in Washington. I have seen how industries work to get favorable articles and op-eds published (in fact, I’ve done it myself a couple of times). No one should be under any misapprehension that the back-to-back columns by George Will and Robert Novak somehow represent a random confluence of two commentators deciding independently to write about the same subject. This is very clearly the result of a concerted effort by someone to try to turn public debate.
Under the circumstances, I don’t think it’s the usual suspects, such as the oil industry. For one thing, while Will and Novak are certainly more than willing to shill for Corporate America, the industry itself has split over this. I suspect that this is rather coming from the “highest levels” — i.e., Dick Cheney or Karl Rove. We need to remember that the global warming issue is not just a matter of economics for these skeptics — it goes to the core of their version of reality. That the earth might actually be warming because of human acts means that God is not taking care of them, that the American way of life is not the most perfect ever conceived, and that things are going to have to change, in ways that they find uncomfortable. Ultimately, I think, we are talking about psychological inability to accept the conclusions of empirical data.
The skeptics are losing the debate. The Bush Administration has been publicly embarrassed by the outcry over its attempts to muffle Hansen and other scientists, and chunks of the government are in open revolt. Witness the recent announcement by NASA that its scientists do not have to get clearance to speak to the public. I read the Will and Novak columns more as a pathetic attempt to reassure themselves than a genuine effort to influence the debate.
As far as the Washington Post goes, it has indeed become “Pravda on the Potomac.” The news staff is separate from the editorial staff, and the Post carries Will and Novak as regular columns, so they just publish pretty much whatever those fellows write. There can be no doubt, though; the Post does increasingly parrot the official Bush Administration line.
4 April 2006 at 12:31 PM
Thanks for this useful posting, and by no means am I defending the op-eds by George F. Will or Robert Novak — whose 14 July 2005 Washington Post column referred to “global warming hysteria” — but please consider a criticism: Your posting’s final paragraph blasting “what is happening at the Washington Post” seems to me to tend just a bit toward a counterproductive misunderstanding of what an op-ed page is at an enlightened newspaper like the Post.
It is one thing for blog commenters, hiding behind anonymity-conferring nicknames to avoid public responsibility for their contributions, to attack Will or Novak in an ad hominem way. But it is quite another for the RealClimate scientists themselves to impugn the Post’s entire op-ed operation for its failure to censor columnists whose climate-related opinions are irresponsible. The op-ed biz doesn’t work that way. It can’t work that way. It shouldn’t work that way.
If the Post did try to censor those men and justify the censorship as editorial oversight — which is the strong-arm tactic that you are advocating — there would be loud cries of Orwellianism. And it does not take a rocket engineer or a climate physicist to see that without free and unfettered open discussion — including the irritations and sometimes the outright offensiveness that can come with open debate — RC itself couldn’t exist.
It seems to me that it’s worth adding that the Post also prints op-ed columns by, for example, Anne Applebaum and David Ignatius, whose Jan. 18 column “Is It Warm in Here? We Could Be Ignoring the Biggest Story in Our History” included this line about Elizabeth Kolbert of the New Yorker: “Her three-part series last spring lucidly explained the harbingers of potential disaster: a shrinking of Arctic sea ice by 250 million acres since 1979; a thawing of the permafrost for what appears to be the first time in 120,000 years; a steady warming of Earth’s surface temperature; changes in rainfall patterns that could presage severe droughts of the sort that destroyed ancient civilizations.”
The Washington Post op-ed page and its policies are not the problem. The problem is the errors of the likes of Will and Novak and, at the Wall Street Journal, James Taranto.
It’s also worth noting that the columns or op-eds by Will and Novak are not “editorials.” You got that term right at the top of your posting, but wrong in the ending paragraph. And it matters. Editorials are unsigned essays over in the left-hand column representing the views of the paper’s editors. A good example for today’s discussion might be the Post’s Feb. 9 editorial called “The Politics of Science,” which ended with this paragraph during the time when Dr. Hansen and that young NASA political appointee George C. Deutsch were in the news: “In every administration there will be spokesmen and public affairs officers who try to spin the news to make the president look good. But this administration is trying to spin scientific data and muzzle scientists toward that end. NASA’s Mr. Hansen was right when he told the Times that Mr. Deutsch was only a bit player. ‘The problem is much broader and much deeper and it goes across agencies,’ he said. We agree.”
Editors who write things like that are not your opponents, and it seems to me that the last thing you should want for them to do is to start trying to dictate content to columnists — even if the scientific judgments in what Will and Novak are saying are so irresponsible as to seem preposterous.
Thanks for the chance to comment.
[Response: This is not a call for censorship. This is a call for the Post and other newspapers to consistently apply normal rules of journalistic ethics. When Jason Blair was caught fabricating material for his NYT articles, he was out on his ear, and a major scandal ensued. Linda Chavez lost her column at the Chicago Tribune because she failed to reveal her ties to Republican activist organizations. Heck, John Green was just suspended from his position as a producer of ABC news for a mildly immoderate comment about the President in a PRIVATE EMAIL — a comment that was far less inflammatory and far less inaccurate than any of Novak’s statements about Hansen. It is not acceptable journalistic practice to argue your case by repetition of things that are known to be false. –raypierre]
[Response: Thanks to you (and other commenters below) for some very thoughtful comments. I am learning something about the US newspaper system. And I fully agree that there should be a forum for opinion columns, expressing diverse opinions not censored by the editors, and we have that in European papers as well. Our concern is with quality: I would expect that the “quality newspapers” don’t just print any nonsense, but that they select columnists that stand for a certain journalistic quality - including getting their basic facts right. Or are these old-fashioned values? -stefan]
4 April 2006 at 12:43 PM
It’s not all bad at the Post. David Ignatius has a couple of recent op eds:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/17/AR2006011700895.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/07/AR2006030701199.html
An op ed from a Real Climate author is a terrific idea.
4 April 2006 at 12:52 PM
I agree with Jim Norton.
This is what happens when people are losing. It’s a natural human reaction, and a clue.
When a dog is backing away and barking ferociously, you don’t stick your hand in there to close its mouth and stop the barking. You step back and say ‘nice doggie’ and go about your business, while keeping an eye on the dog.
And you don’t crow about how the dog was afraid of you and backed off. And you don’t add to the noise by barking either, and 5 dogs barking is just a cacophony and people tune the dogs out after awhile.
Patience and sunlight is what’s needed here.
Best,
D
4 April 2006 at 12:56 PM
A point by point would be nice, about the worst I can say is the graph at the State of Fear link shows three black lines, and one red line.
What strikes me as odd is that the worst case scenario is given a bold black line suggesting it is the most significant prediction. Since the Red line shows a bolded secction for what was actually observed, this is not necessariIy what was actually shown in 1988. Just that original graph would be a good thing. If that original graph also shows a bold black line for the worst-case-scenario, then I would be partly suspicious as I would have made the most-likely-case prediction a bold black one. The usage of the bold and black may have contributed to the porblem.
Also, is 0.8 oF a reasonable number for a worst case scenario prediction??? That this number was so very far from the most-likely-case, and the best-case was so close also lends to possible suspicion.
4 April 2006 at 12:57 PM
It would be interesting to know why Novak’s ad hominem op-ed was removed from the Washington Post website the very next day. I guess the quality of the commentary doesn’t measure up to the Post’s standards. It must be embarrassing for him. It does make clear the reason to stash an article you’re posting the url for.
4 April 2006 at 12:58 PM
You guys raise important issues about whether “opinion” writers should be allowed to print outright misinformation. But I agree with other commenters that there is perhaps too much singling out of the poor Washington Post. What’s rotten is the cavalier way that scientific information in general gets treated by these conservative pundits:
http://scienceblogs.com/intersection/2006/04/science_opinion_writing_and_jo.php
4 April 2006 at 1:19 PM
Ah, Bob Novak. Didn’t he claim that the clean water act would ruin the US economy? My quick google didn’t find it, but there’s an interesting transcript some might find interesting (warning: partisan politics in this CNN thing between Nader and Novak; some crossover with the Bush thread):
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0103/27/cf.00.html
an exerpt:
BOND: They’re natural. Arsenic occurs in natural occurrences.
NOVAK: Exactly. Now, the 10 parts is…
(CROSSTALK)
NADER: The 10 parts per billion is European standard.
NOVAK: Well, the Europeans do everything wrong.
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: But let me just tell you, Mr. Nader, the American Water Works Association, I think they know what to do, they’ve been frantic until they were saved by President Bush. It was going to cost them 1.4 billion, 1.4 billion, to convert their — to take care of this Clinton standard and 600 million a year. Is the whole green, Nader plan just to put American business out of work so the people are on the bread lines.
NADER: Where do you get those figures, Bob?
NOVAK: The American Water Works Association.
NADER: Did you examine them or do you think they’re a little exaggerated?
NOVAK: I think they’re totally accurate.
NADER: How much do think thousands of cancer victims and bladder victims and all kinds of other consequence of arsenic for 15 million Americans who are exposed and that standard is supposed to protect…
NOVAK: What’s your evidence of that?
NADER: That’s the studies that were made on it, National Academy of Sciences, as Bill mentioned. Here’s the point: Don’t get on the side, Bob, of defending arsenic. It’s a loser. Believe me.
NOVAK: Let me defend CO2, which is carbon dioxide which something we breathe out every day, and the president was asked March 14th in New Jersey if he was responding to pressure when he reversed a very foolish campaign statement he made.
4 April 2006 at 1:33 PM
There is also a trend of opinion columnists on the conservative side not to have graduated from college. Like Mr. Deutsch, who without a degree even in journalism felt qualified to edit scientific conclusions of teams of Ph.D’s. They are really that smug. In that group are John Fund and James Taranto of the Wall Street Journal. Both failed to graduate from my alma mater Cal State.
4 April 2006 at 2:03 PM
Thanks for so many good comments here, I feel much better than 10 minutes ago! Dano is right, we need to breathe deep and let the sunshine in
An oped signed by Real Climate is a great idea. Roger Pielke might shake his finger at you again, but even he acknowledges that political communications from the climate scientists is unavoidable and necessary. If you stick to the facts and clearly support everything you say, as usual, it could be “good politicization” and a *very* effective contrast to the screaming talking heads.
I also agree that this represents a descent into the next phase and therefore progress, but I am not yet sure if I am optimistic about how this phase will play out.
4 April 2006 at 2:34 PM
Few comments-
1. Novak’s column was absurd. Welcome to the political rough and tumble.
2. It was a column, not an op-ed. Novak is a syndicated columnist. The WP probably did not exercise any decision about running it other than to check the word count.
3. Expressing outrage, writing letters to newspapers will ensure his job security. Ann Coulter, Michael Moore, Bill O’Reilly, and Paul Krugman et al. earn their keep t some degree by being outragous. If you want to do something, listen to the suggestions above about a point-by-point response. Novak has been in far more controversial situations, I doubt that complaints will get anyone’s serious attention.
4. You write that some have criticized RC allow the following lines — “Hey, you actually care about the fire being put out, so you’re politically motivated!” On the off chance the you might be obliquely referencing your friendly colleague in Boulder, let me be very clear. I have criticized RC, but not for being politically motivated. My criticism is based on being politically motivated AND at the same time stating: “we will not get involved in political or economic issues that arise when discussing climate change.” We are all politically motivated and tehre is nothing wrong with that.
5. Data point: Bjorn Lomborg’s book’s sales quadrupled when the Scientific American criticisms came out. The best way to gain an upper hand in the political/public debate is to define the agenda yourself and make him come to you, rather than vice versa. On the science, you won’t be threatened until Novak appears in the peer-reviewed literature!
Two cents from a political scientist …
4 April 2006 at 2:40 PM
WRT Dano’s comment in 10,
I don’t see that this particular ferociously barking dog is backing away, nor that we can afford to “be patient and go about our business”, given just the current casualties through drought & famine, let alone those projected if we fail to agree the global constraint of GHG outputs in timely manner.
For over 3 decades I’ve seen scientists being patient and going about their business, which someone has convinced them is of informing the governments, and not the populace, of threats and opportunities.
This conduct has been to no noticeable avail, as on practically all counts of resource destruction humanity is now substantially worse off now than it was 3 decades ago.
Therefore I reject the ‘received wisdom’ of science remaining aloof from the politics of the issues it seeks to address.
Hence, with respect, I would ask again whether Hansen would do well to bring a case for defamation against Novac, the WP and the printer in a British court, where shills have no immunity from being held to account for libel,
and the case would attract worldwide attention to the cogency of scientists’ concerns ?
4 April 2006 at 2:53 PM
I started to compose a letter to the Chicago Sun Times criticizing Novak’s column. But I thought it would be better coming from Ray, who after all, is a distinguished faculty member at the University of Chicago, and speaks with much greater authority than I can muster. I hope he writes one, and I hope the Sun Times will feel obligated to publish it.
[Response: And don’t forget Dave Archer either — though I think we ought to let him off the hook for any more writing on this, since he’s done more than his share recently. All that notwithstanding, I think you ought to go ahead and write your own letter anyway. Newspapers like to see opinion from a wide spectrum of the public, and even if they don’t publish everything, I know that the Editors get some sense of feedback from the volume on various topics. Besides, who’s to say that they’ll like my letter more than yours? The more the merrier, and the more chance they’ll publish at least one letter on the subject. –raypierre]
4 April 2006 at 2:56 PM
His main claim to fame
was dear Valerie Plaime
but now hes after hansen, james
more curiouser than strange!
4 April 2006 at 3:21 PM
Although I know I am stepping into a minefield, I have a few comments to make about Dr. Hansen’s 1988 testimony. I went over to the government documents section of the University of Virginia library (an approach that some readers find novel) and copied the pages from June 23rd, 1988 hearing before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources of the United States Senate of the One Hundredth Congress, First Session on the Greenhouse Effect and Global Climate Change, Part 2. In is at this hearing that Dr. Hansen gave his testimony around which all of this swirls.
It is made up of three parts: 1) a transcript of his oral remarks before the committee, 2) a copy of his written statement, and 3) Attachment A which is a preprint of his 1988 paper which was to appear in JGR.
In his oral statement, he refers to viewgraphs that are not reproduced in the Congressional Record, but that, as best as I can determine, are the same Figures that are contained in his written statement (sans one on the frequency of heat waves in Washington DC and Omaha, NE which was probably derived from his JGR paper).
RealClimate is incorrect when they state that they “set” things “right” back in 2004 writing that “In fact in his testimony, Hansen ONLY showed results from scenario B, and stated clearly that it was the most probable scenario.”
In fact, Hansen showed a viewgraph that was probably the same as his Figure 3 in his written statement (which was the same as his Figure 3a in his JGR preprint and similar to the one presented by RealClimate here (without the updated observed record)). In his oral testimony concerning this graphic, Dr. Hansen stated:
Dr. Hansen continues but makes no more reference to the model scenarios as they pertain to global average temperature.
Later in his oral testimony, he shows another viewgraph of the spatial patterns of temperature in the future that are based upon scenario B, but he makes no comment about the choice of scenario B (other than describing it as the “intermediate trace gas scenario”).
In his written testimony, Dr. Hansen, includes the Figure of global annual average temperature projections described above (including all three trace gas scenarios) and writes:
There is no other statement concerning the scenarios or any statement at all about the preference of one over the others. Later in his written testimony, Dr. Hansen shows a figure of the spatial patterns of temperature change that results from the use of scenario B (without commenting why he chose scenario B).
So, the Congressional Record shows that Hansen did in fact show the global temperature projections from all three scenarios (despite what RealClimate contends) and also, that he made no statement as to which one he thought was more likely. He did, however, refer to Scenario A as “business as usual.”
This said however, in the JGR preprint attached to his written statement, is it stated (after describing the three scenarios) that “Scenario B is perhaps the most plausible of the three cases.”
What I take from all of this is that while Dr. Hansen may have preferred his Scenario B, he made no strong indication to this preference while he presented the results from all three scenarios before Congress. And that oversight is what has left the door open for later interpretations of what his intentions were in his testimony.
In light of the actual testimony, and in an effort to portray the true facts to their blog readership, I hope that RealClimate will mollify its statement that “In fact in his testimony, Hansen ONLY showed results from scenario B, and stated clearly that it was the most probable scenario.” For it is an inaccurate representation of what occurred during the actual oral and written testimony Dr. Hansen presented before Congress on June 23rd, 1988, at least as it was recorded in the Congressional Record.
[Response: Hansen’s statement on the subject is available here: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/hansen_re-crichton.pdf . In it he makes clear that other than the figure with three scenarios, all results shown in the testimony were from scenario B, which was described as the ‘most plausible’. Thus our statement was not incorrect. With respect to how realistic the projections were, we can look at the actual numbers. Over the period 1988 to 2005, the different scenarios showed trends of 0.35, 0.19 and 0.24 deg C/decade for A, B, and C respectively. This can be compared to the GISS analyses of global temperature changes of 0.18 and 0.21 deg C/decade (for the met station index and the land-ocean index). Up to 2000 the forcings scenarios for B and C are identical, and so the difference between then is more a measure of the internal variability rather than a forced response. To some extent this match was fortuitous - the climate sensitivity of the model at that time was around 4.2deg C (a little on the high side of the best estimate) though 17 years is too short for this to be a big effect. Additionally, the forcing scenario was only for CO2 - the fact that the additional real world forcings (which include the other greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar, ozone etc.) basically cancel out over this period is lucky. However, given the primitiveness of the experiment and the elements of chance, the scenario B projection was actually a good prediction. There can be no way that any of the projections can be described as being in ‘error by 300%’. Michael’s characterisation of the Hansen testimony and his exclusive focusing on scenario A (including deleting scenarios B and C from the graph) is unsustainable on any reading of the evidence. Maybe you’d like to make a comment on that? -gavin]
4 April 2006 at 4:59 PM
Someone who has worked in a newsroom please correct me if I’m wrong, but my understanding is that there is no fact-checking to speak of at newspapers. Magazines employ fact-checkers, but newspaper reporters are responsible for themselves.
But there’s another point of confusion here; namely, the op-ed pages work by a completely different set of rules than the rest of the paper. You’re reading opinion, plain and simple, and it’s not governed by the same journalistic standards that apply to reporters. Reporters cannot express an opinion but columnists have the liberty to say what they want and cherry-pick the facts and figures all they like. You can wish it were otherwise, but that’s the convention. And people who read papers need to understand that distinction. As a result there’s a gulf between what you see reported in, say, the Wall Street Journal, which does some very good environmental reporting, and what you read in its editorial section, which tends toward rabid partisanship.
In any case, good luck in setting the record straight.
4 April 2006 at 5:03 PM
Welcome to AMERICA!
4 April 2006 at 5:29 PM
Get over it. Your side of the debate is far more abusive and denigrating towards the skeptics than anything they throw your way. You even have your own “oh-so-clever” nicknames for us.
Plenty of skeptics have legitimate concerns with the science, and are in fact more qualified than most climate scientists in the areas that prompt concern. In my case, I am an expert on dynamical systems and modelling, and have found that nearly all climate experts really don’t know what they are talking about in this area - se eg this thread: http://illconsidered.blogspot.com/2006/03/models-are-unproven.html
But instead of admitting your ignorance, or admitting any problems, you give a blanket endorsement to skeptic-denigrating sites like the above, even though it is clear that the author of that site is way out of his depth.
If your side of the debate would grow up, stop blanket ad-hominem attacks on skeptics, and start admitting knowledge gaps, maybe we skeptics would accord you more respect. As things stand, you don’t deserve it.
4 April 2006 at 5:51 PM
A new geologic era, caused by mankind, is already upon us. If the world does not immediately reduce all greenhouse gas emmissions by at least 80% right now, we will lose the battle.The thermohaline North Atlantic current has begun its shutdown. The coral reefs are dying.Permafrost and glaciers are melting. The tipping point has past, say many scientists already.US must institute CO2 credit markets, target $30 -50 per ton,right now.Soon CO2 taxes will issue to go jogging, never mind driving a car.
Mark J. Fiore, self taught follower of all stories global warming related, environmental activist, lawyer, and substitute teacher, SFUSD.
[Response: I sympathize with some of your sentiments, but I do think your statement exaggerates how close we are to disaster, and the nature of the response needed to head of major problems. It is certainly not necessary to reduce all greenhouse gas emissions “right now,” (and it would be terrible if that were necessary, since the chances of doing so are just about nil). If we manage to prevent too many pulverized coal power plants from being built and keep world emissions more or less flat or gently decreasing for the next two decades, there’s room to head off some of the worst consequences by sharper reductions in the rest of the century. Agreed it would have been better if we had started doing all this ten years ago, but it’s a lot like smoking. Even if you stop late, you still do better than if you continue. Finally, it has not been established that there is a “tipping point” anywhere between 1xCO2 and 4XCO2. Towards the higher end, you start to worry about melting Greenland, and so forth, but there’s no one point where everything goes wrong all at once. Certainly, it is worth not being complacent, given that a lot of the CO2 we put in the atmosphere today will still be altering climate in a thousand years, and maybe longer. –raypierre]
4 April 2006 at 5:56 PM
Re: #17, “3. Expressing outrage, writing letters to newspapers will ensure his job security. Ann Coulter, Michael Moore, Bill O’Reilly, and Paul Krugman et al. earn their keep t some degree by being outragous.”
It is unfair to lump Krugman in with those other three blowhards. Krugman is more qualified to speak about the economy than 99.999% of Americans. In fact, he is probably just short of John Kenneth Galbraith’s stature in terms of experience and scholarly achievements (though much shorter physically, Galbraith being 6′8”). Any reference to Krugman being outrageous throws your entire post into question.
4 April 2006 at 5:59 PM
Let’s see… the thrust of #23 is that the people convinced of the reality and danger of AGW are abusive and denigrating. And in making this point you say “get over it”, “nearly all climate experts really don’t know what they are talking about in this area”, climate scientists don’t “admit their ignorance”, don’t “admit any problems”, they shoud “grow up”, “stop ad hominem attacks [!?!]” and they don’t deserve respect.
Do you not have any sense of irony?
I urge anyone who has any doubts about the patience and time someone like Gavin has for self proclaimed “experts” who are climate sceptics, even when they hide behind anonimity, to visit the comments in the above link and draw their own conclusion.
4 April 2006 at 6:11 PM
Re: #23, “Plenty of skeptics have legitimate concerns with the science, and are in fact more qualified than most climate scientists in the areas that prompt concern.”
Heck no! Most of these “skeptics” cannot understand the climate system to the same degree as climatologists. It is the climate system that prompts the most concern and not anything else. Like what will a change in the climate system do to the hydrologic cycle:
http://www.cbc.ca/story/science/national/2006/04/04/alberta-drought-20060404.html
McIntyre, McKitrick, Essex, Lomborg, etc., are some examples of those who cannot measure up to a Drs. Mann, Schmidt, Bradley, Hansen, et al. in regards to issues relating to the climate system.
Anonymous, you are completely off-base in your comment in #23. Everything you say is wrong, with the exception of “In my case, I am an expert on dynamical systems and modelling”, though since you sign your name as “Anonymous”, even that is unverifiable.
Why don’t you actually use your real name? At least you can use something that will identify you to the moderators so at least they can know who you are.
4 April 2006 at 6:17 PM
I hate to disagree with Chris Mooney, whom I very much admire, but scientific information is just a special case - it’s true information they don’t like that these guys attack (along with the bearers of that information), and they have no scruples about how they do it.
And to Stephen Berg: Given the current state of public discourse in this country, Paul Krugman is indeed outrageous, precisely because he is a scholar and is careful to get his facts right. Needless to say, the New York Times had no idea what they were getting when they hired him.
4 April 2006 at 6:37 PM
RE #25. Coby, they give you a free-rein here because you suit their propaganda purposes. But that doesn’t make it any less propaganda. When the environmentalists/climatologists stop denigrating skeptics I’ll have more respect for them. But as a skeptic (on certain issues) who understands what he is talking about, the ad-hominem attacks from the other side simply serve to reduce my respect for them as scientists.
Rather than forcing everyone to read that thread, perhaps you could summarize it for us here? After all, you are the one claiming that skeptics like me don’t know what we’re talking about when we claim there are fundamental modelling issues. Presumably you understand well-enough what was discussed to present a reasonable precis?
[Response: Folks, please stick to presenting factual arguments that are interesting to our readers - general accusations are not. Thanks, stefan]
4 April 2006 at 6:37 PM
I may not be qualified in climatology but I am Qualified in health and safety and take issue with sceptics on one fact, risk assesment, if there is a low risk of catastrophic consequences then an action plan should be implemented, just the same as a high risk with lesser consequences.
Therefore please take issue with the sceptic community in everyway you can and write your rebutal, for the sake of those without a voice, the risk no matter how great or small is not worth taking, it is better we do what we can even if proved wrong in the future than do nothing and our future generations have no future.
4 April 2006 at 7:00 PM
Re: #27, “Coby, they give you a free-rein here because you suit their propaganda purposes. But that doesn’t make it any less propaganda.”
“Anonymous”, there is no such thing as propaganda in science. It is a matter of being either RIGHT or WRONG.
The skeptics with whom you empathise are WRONG. They have been WRONG in the past and they continue to be WRONG at the present. Judging by this, it is safely assumed that they will continue to be WRONG in the future.
Your denegrations (sp?) of Dr. Hansen are completely unfounded. Dr. Hansen brought the climate change issue to the attention of policymakers in 1988 with the hypothesis that the planet would warm greatly as a result of greenhouse gas emissions. You know what? He was RIGHT!
People like Pat Michaels, Fred Singer, Sherwood Idso, et al., disagreed and tried to argue against Dr. Hansen’s pronouncements. You know what? They were WRONG!
And “Anonymous”, since you claim to be a modelling expert, do you know the difference between a weather and a climate model, or are you trying to be like Richard Lindzen and confuse people by saying such tripe as “If they can’t predict the weather in a five-day forecast, how can we expect them to be right in 25 years?”
4 April 2006 at 7:39 PM
It does seem odd to me that Hansen keeps complaining about being censored by the current Administration, but he “gets” to appear at, of all places, 60 minutes. Now, don’t you think Novak has a point on this?
[Response: Remember, this appearance is AFTER NASA got caught out trying to filter all of Hansen’s comments through a minder. The Times broke the story January 29. According to the 60 Minutes transcript, Hansen was only allowed to participate with a NASA official present recording the interview. The transcript also states that other interviews were cancelled. As far as I can tell, NASA is now doing an earnest job of allowing their scientists to speak openly. You don’t get to know about the CNN appearances and so forth that NASA may have cancelled or intercepted before the change of policy. As for Hansen’s earlier public appearances, it was evidently the traction he was gaining that lead NASA to try to rein him in. He is prominent enough that he was able to resist successfully, but I wonder how many helpless young researchers fearful for their jobs self-censored themselves. The blow-up over NASA’s attempts to muzzle Hansen seems to have had a salutary effect. Let’s just hope it outlives the spotlight. -raypierre]
4 April 2006 at 7:54 PM
RE 18:
Lewis, I respectfully disagree and I address your concerns in a slightly different context here (and with a slightly different version of Dano, BTW).
Best,
D
4 April 2006 at 7:56 PM
I have to say I pretty much agree with everything Roger Pielke says in #17. (And to the subsequent poster, just because you agree with Krugman — and I usually do — doesn’t mean he isn’t outrageous).
I’m especially intrigued by his last point about Lomborg’s sales. My question is: How did Bjorn Lomborg manage to get so many level-headed folks all in a froth, and why didn’t they realize they were only increasing his exposure? It seemed clear that Lomborg’s arguments were too easily dismantled to be so threatening to so many people and yet the rebuttals quickly became overheated and, yes, disrespectful. The scientists who took umbrage to the mere fact that an associate professor in statistics would dare question their findings … well, they missed the point. If Lomborg isn’t entitled to question you, does that mean that journalists, politicians and taxpayers aren’t entitled to either? While I find “Anonymous” in #23 to be totally out of line (and off-balance) his remarks did make me mindful of the arrogance some of Lomborg’s critics displayed.
In any event, the passion the Lomborg attacks generated only seemed to lend credence to his arguments. (Consider the old Shakespeare line about protesting too much.) If anyone has more insight or would care to reflect on the whole Lomborg brouhaha, I’d be interested to hear it.
As for Novak and Will, I’d say the tide is turning against their brand of willful ignorance. Of course, that takes a frustratingly long time to overcome and time isn’t something we have an overabundance of. What’s interesting to me about this debate is that the level of complexity/uncertainty is enough that I fear most of us (and perhaps Will and Novak are in this camp) simply believe what we want to believe based on their views of how the world and the universe are wired. For some folks, it is simply unthinkable that we may have upset the climate system, unwittingly or otherwise.
How do you change their minds? Beats me. Somehow, they need to see the burning building with their own eyes.
4 April 2006 at 8:27 PM
Here’s a good methodology of of sceptics article.
http://www.wunderground.com/education/ozone_skeptics.asp
Dr. Masters did a number on Crichton too.
4 April 2006 at 9:01 PM
Re #29,
I don’t think my “rein” here is any more free than yours, you are being published just the same as I am. I actually thought about swearing at you just so I could be censored! LOL! But then I would have to swallow the rest of your bait too…
Anyway, this is not constructive in any way whatsoever, so don’t look forward to any more comments from me unless you offer some substance of some sort.
Cheers.
4 April 2006 at 9:11 PM
re 8. Response
What constitutes “to consistently apply normal rules of journalistic ethics”?
Should the rules of journalistic ethics be more inclusive than normal when dealing with global warming? Is it unethical for journalists to ignore important material related to global warming?
For example …
A Jan. 16, 2001 letter stated:
“You alleged a substantial and specific danger to public health and safety and gross mismanagement by officials at the Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Weather Service (NWS), North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC), Chanhassen, Minnesota”. … “Specifically, you allege that NWS is not handling the issue of global warming in a way that best serves the interest of the public”. … â??Should you wish to pursue this matter further, you may contact the Department of Commerce, Office of Inspector General.” â?¦ (Letter to me from Attorney T. Biggs, U.S. Office of Special Counsel (OSC) while I was a NOAA NWS employee).
A Jan. 31, 2006 letter stated:
“In knowing that*, I believe that my concerns about hydrologic climate change in the Upper Midwest and about global warming, which were identified in OSC File No. DI-00-2100, need to be discussed with scientists in NASA in order to gain a full understanding of the state of the science in Dec 2000, Jan 2001; and currently. For that reason, I request that the matters described at the beginning of this letter be pursued further.” …
(Letter from me to the Department of Commerce, Office of Inspector General)
* That NASA’s mission includes “to understand and protect our home planet”.
As of today, I have not received a response from the DOC Office of Inspector General. If the material above was sent to a journalist with a request to do something with it, would the journalist have a ethical responsibility to do something with it?
4 April 2006 at 9:11 PM
Dear Anonymous (#23): i would be happy to discuss your critique of the consensus on global warming off line. Perhaps I am old-fashioned but I suspect that we can have a calmer and more productive conversation without every word becoming part of a public record. Based on 25 years of climate dynamics research, I am convinced that the consensus position is indeed correct. I am not interested in categorizing people as skeptics or anything else. Google me to check on my credentials and get the ball rolling if serious.
4 April 2006 at 9:19 PM
[Mods, my comment in #31 should now read #29, not #27. I guess this has been a very busy thread, since some comments have been inserted in between others.
Good work on this one, by the way! Please delete this post when the edits are finished. Thanks.]
4 April 2006 at 9:23 PM
Information and opinion are different things; so is information and propaganda. Propaganda is defined as selectively choosing information in order to get a desired response. Disinformation is outright fabrication of false information. Take a look at this John Hopkins University site on evaluating Internet ‘info’: Information counterfeits.
Are Novak and Will guilty of propaganda or disinformation? Perhaps a little of both. Certainly they should be challenged on this issue by whatever means you feel comfortable with - write a letter, or even call up the Post and request that they invite a rebuttal from Dr. Hansen, which certainly seems fair.
What is curious here is that we don’t see op-ed pieces claiming that there is no ozone hole over the Antarctic, or op-ed pieces claiming that all the photos coming back from Mars have been faked by the Jet Propulsion Lab, or anything ridiculous like that. Consider what the Exxonmobil funded think tank Competetive Enterprise Insitute has been up to - feeding stories to Fox News that were written by its ‘fellows’. This is a pretty standard PR technique of using inside contacts with journalists to plant stories. Here is a random selection of a company that can do this for you: typical PR press business
Of course, regulations that limit CO2 emissions as well as a shift in government subsidies away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy systems would result in a kind of economic upheaval. Something like 60% of Wall Street underwriting is in energy and fossil fuels. Change is therefore a difficult proposition, and thus we see these op-ed pieces, which rely heavily on personal attacks rather then any kind of rational scientific argument.
4 April 2006 at 9:31 PM
Re # 17, Roger you’ve finally written something worth considering. Making bombastic statements clearly creates a response, which then builds up drama and interest. Thus your blog, Prometheus, which functions as little more than a droll advertorial for all things Pielke. Time to move on.
On a more interesting note. Rick Piltz just won the Ron Ridenhour award for his work on global warming. See here: http://www.ridenhour.org/award_truth.html
It was an okay ceremony. Got to see Gloria Steinemn, for whatever that’s worth. I like Piltz. Good guy. One of the smartest I’ve met when it comes to climate change policy. He has been wired into the inner workings for well over a decade and is well respected by insiders and scientists.
But it was nice to see that Jim Hansen declined the award. He’s far to busy getting back to science.
4 April 2006 at 9:32 PM
One of my friends recently had a student give her his opinion of global warming: “I’m in favor”, he said.
Now, what kind of a reaction is that? Are you for or against Pythagoras theorem? What happened to the notion that science is about uncovering truth, and that facts exist independently of people’s opinions? Do people consider
that these “hot” topics are all a matter of opinion?
I am for abortion rights, against Daylight Saving Time, and for Global Warming…
4 April 2006 at 9:35 PM
I sympathize with some of your sentiments, but I do think your statement exaggerates how close we are to disaster
A hydrocarbon combustion driven global mass extinction is not an imminent disaster?
You global warming guys sure are out of touch with reality.
4 April 2006 at 9:52 PM
RE #35: I certainly am being censored - many of my comments don’t appear. Their only distinguishing characteristic is that they point out the bias on your side of the debate. No doubt this post will be censored too, but we can always hope (actually, I have given up hope on this forum - through lack of objectivity it has clearly demonstrated itself to be yet another environmentalist propaganda shill. A shame really).
And how is it not constructive for me to ask you to summarize a thread from your blog? Given your reluctance to do so, one would be forgiven for concluding that maybe, just maybe, you really don’t know what you are talking about.
[Response: No, their only distinguishing characteristic is that they are pointless and uninformative flame-bait. Anybody who wants to pursue that offline can do so at the email address you report to us: a@b.com. Good luck. –raypierre]
4 April 2006 at 9:54 PM
Re: 31.
RIGHT is not a scientific principle. As an analytical scientist, I can vouch that scientific measurements are never “right”. All measurements contain some error. And part of what makes good analysts worth their keep is their ability to quantify that error and propagate it correctly when comparing their results to those from other experiments or predictions.
One common and flimsy logical attack against natural science in general, and climate in particular, it this: Detail X is wrong, therefore all related conclusions must be completely thrown out. There is no attempt to show what sensitivity the conclusions have to wrongness of that detail, or to quantify exactly how wrong it is. It is important to remember that, even though all measurements are wrong, some are more wrong than others.
4 April 2006 at 10:06 PM
People often try to stir up argument by pretending to favor the side they oppose, then writing outrageously exaggerated or offensive comments; if they get published and people believe who they pretend to be, they blacken their opponents’ reputation; if they aren’t published, then claiming censorship is a workable fallback.
This isn’t peculiar to this subject, this forum, this medium, or this millenium for that matter. It’s an old tactic, and one to remember.
Posting anonymously calls for posting very politely and thoughtfully and including enough info to establish that “anonymous” in one post is the same as the author of another, to build any credibility.
Personal opinon, nothing more.
4 April 2006 at 10:06 PM
I have to give a speech in my debate class that argues that global warming is normal. Where on earth can I find credible sources that state that? I really need help. Thanks!
[Response: It depends what you mean by “global warming” and what you mean by “normal.” The Earth warms going from a glacial to an interglacial. I guess that’s normal. The typical interglacial temperature is far lower than the temperature we’ll reach if we double CO2. Heck, the globe warms every July, because there’s more land in the Northern than the Summer Hemisphere. That’s normal, too I guess. The globe was a lot warmer during the Cretaceous, due to millions of years of buildup of CO2 from volcanoes. That’s normal. What’s not normal is anthropogenic global warming, where you turn the clock back about 10 million years in a century. That’s not normal. –raypierre]
4 April 2006 at 11:05 PM
Good thing they didn’t ask you to argue whether it was “natural” or “unnatural” — normal (versus what, paranormal?) is easier.
Start with Arrhenius, he’s credible, no one has argued with him for over a hundred years.
This might help: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/
Once you can explain all the different natural causes we know for climate change, and the physics of the atmosphere that capture heat, you can take people through upwards of 650,000 years, maybe a million years, in which global warming and cooling have happened. All of them are natural events.
You can also prove for example that thermal warming is natural. You could show a solar oven, use a magnifying glass to heat something, use a fire drill for fire by friction, mix alcohol and water and show the increase in temperature, break a hunters’ heatpack and show chemical heating from oxidation of iron filings, maybe get a spark coil and show heating by electrical sparking. All those prove thermal heating is natural.
Or, if your teacher has no sense of humor, you could start at exxonsecrets.com for example — you can borrow arguments there that Exxon and other companies paid many tens of thousands of dollars to have written and published.
For tactics, see anything written by Stanton Glantz describing how the tobacco companies argued that lung cancer is normal — you’ll find some familiar names, if you look through the footnotes.
The latter may be closer to what your teacher expects.
4 April 2006 at 11:07 PM
Re #47. You state that the speech is for debate class. Now, having a history of debating (that noble art), let me assure you that actual scientific correctness is not really as important as how you present it. You mearly need “arguments” supported by “sources” and a wee bit o rhetoric. I would suggest that the contents of this thread alone (plus the two op ed pieces) would give you enough to baffle the “other side.” You see, a classic debate format is just three people vs. three over a period of 30 minutes or so. It’s all about the “sound bite” and not about what’s really going on. If you are interested in the real dynamics of the climate system, I suggest a few years of study at least. I know I’ve been studying from some of the main contributors to this forum for three years, and can only just follow the postings. But a debate? No problem! I think I could argue either side as long as the total debate was limited to 30 minutes and no one was able to follow up. I hope you “win” your debate, and thereby show the difference between the court of public opinion (in the short term) and the court of scientific knowledge. Good luck!
4 April 2006 at 11:33 PM
To Jamie Schwartz, #47, on how to argue “global warming” is normal. From one who has concluded the opposite, much to my morose chagrin, your task is easy.
You do not need credible sources to craft rhetoric to assert a “global warming” is normal–you just need published sources. Get a copy of the book, “Global Warming and Other Eco-Myths” for the library. Read quotes from it. Wave it around. Present an air of outrage. Show charts–any charts will do. Show the ice cover retreat from North America, and point out how ice has been retreating for years. Tell your audience that the deep ocean is still warming from the last ice age. Yes, the climate is warming, as it should be. Humans thrive in a warm climate, and so do plants. That is so obvious. We need to use common sense, says you…
And ask people, how often have they been mislead. Here it comes again. Get some Richard Lindzen quotes on the NASA website on the Iris Hypothesis. Select your evidence for your case and ignore contrary evidence. Make a simple message, and repeat it over and over. Be taken aghast.
Just to be clear: as one who has concluded that Anthropogenic Climate Change is expressing a very clear signal, with all the work done to lay a framework for confusion by Western Fuels Association, et al, I’d think that opposite point of view–in the relativistic world of argument–in lieu of the true evidence realm of science–would be a piece of cake… If you opponent makes headway, retreat to the simple message s you have made easy pickings for the audience.
Key message words are: common sense, proven variability, obvious.
[Response: Good advice, but don’t follow it all, Jamie. Don’t cite Lindzen’s so-called “Iris Effect”, because it does not support your claim that global warming is normal - rather it means that global warming cannot happen because a strong negative feedback prevents it. -stefan]
[Response: Yes, the Iris effect, if correct, would seem to indicate that global warming cannot occur by ANY means, natural or anthropogenic. It raises the question of how we got out of the last ice age, how Cretaceous climates got warm, etc. If one accepts that there is indeed a 20th and 21st century warming trend, the Iris idea would make problems for any plausible explanation for the trend, not just anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases. I’m somewhat caricaturing the implications of the Iris, but not much; these considerations point in the right direction to see where the problems lie. –raypierre]
4 April 2006 at 11:52 PM
“at b.com”
Chuckle. Don’t bother, single-letter domains aren’t used.
whois b.com->
Domain Name: B.COM
Registrar: RESERVED-INTERNET ASSIGNED NUMBERS AUTHORITY
[Response:I think that was Ray’s point. We would not publish someone’s real e-mail address without their consent. -stefan]
[Response: Exactly. In fact, to make sure I wasn’t jumping to conclusions, I verified that this was an invalid email address before posting it. If it had checked out, of course I wouldn’t have posted it. –raypierre]
5 April 2006 at 12:41 AM
About the climate debate being “just” an unproven theory: considers this extended Gaia-theory. To the open mind it will maybe put the whole climate debate in a greater context.
So consider this: the earth got a consciousness, so do we as mankind. What if mankind recently declared itself ready to learn â?? then mother earth will answer, of course in its physical boundaries. So we get what we asked for. And it will lead to a massive rise in consciousness instead of self-destruction.
With Central Europe on the doorstep of another century flooding that is exactly what is happening right now in Europe. And what will happen in the U.S. once the next big hurricane will hit this year: another wake-up call from mother earth to mass consciousness. So wait and see: considering the law of time (www.lawoftime.org) and the physical boundaries it might as well be the 13th month this year for you guys. Yes 13 months or moons, this is the natural time, it is the rhythm of biology, the rhythm of the female cycle as well. Change your time, change your mind, and change what will be materialized out of the flow of time. There is even a U.N.-petition you can sign in to change the calendar 2012. And with the fall of the modern Babylon towers (9/11) the old artificial time table originating from Babylon has fallen already. Like rats in a most of purely mind-oriented mankind just has not taken notice yet.
Yes this is only a vision: the closing of the (26â??000year) cycle in 2012/2013. But it is the only one I know, that is able to turn around the steering wheel in due time.
Well of course it is easy to say: this is nonsense. But maybe you consider it as a wake-up call as well and first you just study the subject, then you study your soul and get within the flow of time. After that you will maybe not only know, but just feel earth consciousness. And instead of making pictures of a deadly Tsunami approaching you, you will be able to read again the signals of the earth and like the natural people find shelter on higher ground way before the Tsunami hits. We call it telepathy or telepathic synchronisation, and of course it works (for your scientific mind consider the results of quantum physics), you will find out eventually.
5 April 2006 at 12:47 AM
Jamie, read Bill Ruddiman’s piece here. You can argue right off a big graph that what’s natural is sudden fast heating episodes followed by long slow erratic cooling periods — and the only exception on the chart starts about 8000 years ago with human activity. Up through around 1970, over 8000-odd years, humans burned up X amount of carbon (agriculture, logging, burning, erosion, siltation, killing things). Instead of a long slow cooling after the last ice age ended 8 to 10 thousand years ago, we got a long steady stretch of climate with a few bobbles in it.
So X amount of carbon over 8000 years - counterbalanced the natural slow uneven cooling trend.
That was true up through the mid-1970s. Since then we burned the same amount of carbon again. Don’t go there.
5 April 2006 at 2:17 AM
Re 53, and Ruddiman’s hypothesis.
Why was the comment section of the Ruddiman blog closed before the Broeker & Stocker Eos article (2006; 87,3,27), which shows that the d13C deviation expected from Ruddiman’s hypothesis isn’t found in the fossil or ice core record?
I apologise for harping on this point, but I think it is important. The vampire-like perseverance of dead hypotheses long after they are slain makes science education difficult. It does not matter if those hypotheses are contrarian, like the satellite “cooling” data of a decade ago, or alarmist, like Ruddiman’s “Anthropocene”. Killing one’s cherished baby ideas is part of the scientific method; responsible scientists do it all the time. But on the internet, these vanquished hypotheses have a habit if coming back to haunt us, unless we, as a community, are vigilant about keeping them dead.
[Response: At EGU, Ruddiman gave a talk on his hypothesis; he has now decided that the CO2 cannot all (40 ppm) have been due to deforestation, etc, as there isn’t enough forest. So its now 10 from forest, and the remaining 30 from ocean feedbacks (err…). Neatly, this gets rid of the isotopic signature problem too. See-also http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2006/04/egu_monday.php - William]
5 April 2006 at 2:58 AM
It does seem worth pointing out that it is entirely within the rights of a newspaper’s editors to control its editorial content; it is not censorship for them to choose not to run an article. It speaks poorly of the Washington Post that they choose to print Novak’s libelous (though perhaps not actionable) comments.
5 April 2006 at 6:07 AM
RE #53
This is word for word, the same comment you made in the last article (incurious george: #82), I won’t bother to cut and paste my reply (comment #83).
5 April 2006 at 8:06 AM
Re: inserted response to 55:
If even Ruddiman is backing off from his hypothesis, then that gives you guys all the more reason to keep that portion of your site up to date. As for his suggestion that only 10 ppm is human, I wonder if he would drop that to 5 if we doubled the precision of the measurements. From a practical point of view, I see no difference between retracting a hypothesis, and moderating it to a value that is no longer experimentally testable.
5 April 2006 at 8:20 AM
Specifically to answer da Silva’s point:
I was one of the scientists to ‘get in a lather’ as you put it over the publication of Lomborg’s book (I co-reviewed it with Stuart Pimm for Nature). I have no regrets whatsoever in slating the book and Lomborg, and I would definitely do the same were I to review a similar published work that is similarly full of errors, personal smears and other nonsense.
The scientific community was justifiably angry for several reasons. First, the book contains more scientific distortions than pages, and yet was published by a respected Academic Impramatur (CUP). When the book was published, many of its more egregious errors were covered in the mainstream media as if they were facts - at the same time, scientists working in the complex fields whose work was badly distorted by Lomborg were given a pass. In review after review in the print media, we were told that “the truth about the environment is now made clear” when in fact much of the book is pure gobbledegook. Aside from Lomborg’s personal and professional ambitions, whatever they are, its clear that many of the errors stem from his complete ignorance of earth and environmental science. This is why his credentials were considered to be an issue. They still are. If a taxi driver writes a book claiming that the Earth is flat, and the book gets pusblished by a prominent publisher, I am sure that qualified geophysicists would be pretty annoyed. The same is true for those who comment on climate science like George Will and Robert Novak. Their views conflict with the vast majority of climate scientists, and yet they are political/business columnists. Thus, the professional background of a scribe is a issue.
5 April 2006 at 8:50 AM
Guys heres the deal.
People like Robert D. Novak are not ‘journalists’ so you really can’t hold them to any journalistic standard. Robert Novak is a ‘commentator’. He writes about his opinions. He probably would know the truth if it bit him on the butt, but he’d just kick it. Like a criminal lawyer, commentators make the best argument possible for their side. The assume some other guy is going to make a competing argument for the other side. Best dog in the fight wins.
Michael Crichton isn’t a journalist either. He writes these things known as ’stories’. Sure some nuts mistake his fiction for gospel, but then lots of idiots actually believe in the ‘Divinci Code’ and the ‘Left Behind’ series. There’s people for you.
Earth scientist need to simply focus on their jobs and report their findings. When somebody likes Novak or Crichton makes a factual error it is important to speak up and explain their mistake and move on.
5 April 2006 at 9:41 AM
In comment # 8, I criticized RC’s original posting’s ending paragraph for what I see as unrealistically, and also unwisely, advocating the Washington Post’s active policing of the content of Will’s and Novak’s climate-science-related op-ed columns. My comment drew two RC responses. It seems to me that the comparative moderation in the second of those is a welcome sign. But even that more moderate RC response continues to insist that somehow the Post has failed in a perceived journalistic duty to ensure what the first responder called journalistic ethics and the more moderate responder called journalistic quality.
I completely agree that the op-ed columnists Will and Novak conveyed appalling science judgments. I also agree that Novak was distastefully harsh about Dr. Hansen, though I’m flabbergasted that anyone could believe that somehow the political hardball condemnation of anyone’s political activities could be actionable in court. Please see item 1 in Roger Pielke’s comment 17: “Novak’s column was absurd. Welcome to the political rough and tumble.”
And I agree with the posting’s ending paragraph, the paragraph that I’m otherwise criticizing, when it says that what’s actually needed from responsible commentators is “a critical examination of the evidence for an imminent danger.” Precisely. Very well said.
That’s why it’s unwise for people who misunderstand how the op-ed biz works to head down a dead-end side road making accusations, including some shrill ones, against the Washington Post itself. That dead-end side road leads nowhere when it comes to promoting the needed critical examination of the evidence for an imminent danger.
Also: Roger Pielke (comment 17, item 2) can probably make a sensible case that Will’s and Novak’s op-ed-page pieces must be called columns, not op-eds, though Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Op-ed) doesn’t seem to focus on any such hard distinction concerning signed opinion essays on an op-ed page. In any case the important distinction, neglected in the RC posting’s ending paragraph, is between op-eds and columns on the one hand, which are the signed opinions of individuals, and on the other hand unsigned editorials, which represent an editorial board’s collective opinion.
[Response: Steven, as the person who actually wrote that last sentence you disagree with, I find your comments very interesting. And as you very nicely phrase it, I indeed “insist that somehow the Post has failed in a perceived journalistic duty”. Perhaps my perception is just a European one (although I hope not): namely that newspapers are not just another business like selling cars (interestingly, you talk about the “op-ed biz”), but rather that they play a special and necessary role in the functioning of a democracy, and that with this comes a special responsibility and journalistic ethics. -stefan]
5 April 2006 at 9:43 AM
The comment made by Scott Nance (#7) is very good and seems to me explains the agenda of the Washington Post articles.
I have great respect the people behind this web site and they should be congratulated for their effort.
I have used the information I have learned here to explain Global warming to many friends, relatives and acquaintances.
I disagree with the idea suggested by some of the comments in this thread that the best policy for Climate Scientists in dealing with ridiculous skeptics is to ignore them and carry on quietly with their own work. This may be the best thing to do with some poor mentally ill person on the bus. However, for highly funded voices that are given unrewarded credibility and access to the media, a great effort, even a fight is justified, as the cause is most certainly worth it.
My comment to Anonymous (#24 #30), people keep secrets so they can tell lies.
5 April 2006 at 11:26 AM
re: answer to 33: A conspiracy against scientists, huh?
5 April 2006 at 12:55 PM
Re#24
Anonymous, I confess to being weary of your confrontational approach to others on this web. HOWEVER, I do offer thanks for your motivating me to ask google what is an expert on dynamical systems and modelling. The second link was a gold mine for me:
Two strong papers on the role of your expertise –system dynamics simulaltion modeling — to assist supporting effective participation in the climate change debate. See www.sustainer.org/pubs/siclimate.PDF
I highly recommend otheres read this and an appendix paper: Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming, MIT, Sterman and Sweeney at:
web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/cloudy_skies1.pdf
Your colleagues have helped me understand better the challenge we face in communicating our concerns to the public..even the highly educated public; i.e., elected officials and corporate execs, the media and sceptics.
I do hope you will contribute a comment on those papers and describe how system dynamics simulation modeling is a tool to be applied to that challenge.
This page is taking a turn and I hope it maintains its civility and respect for one and all. You inadventently led me to those papers and I owe you thanks and respect for the league in which you play.
John McCormick
5 April 2006 at 1:38 PM
Gavin (re#21),
Don’t want to get into debating what the meaning of “is” is, but “ONLY” [your emphasis] must mean something different to you than it does to me.
I have gone back and reread Dr. Hansen’s testimony and the 1988 JGR paper and have determined that the 4th viewgraph shown during Dr. Hansen’s oral testimony is most likely Figure 6 from the 1988 JGR paper’s Figure which again shows the results of all three scenarios when used to calculate the probability of a summer in Washington DC and Omaha, NE being ‘hot’. In his oral remarks, Dr. Hansen is recorded as saying the following:
The range of probabilities that Dr. Hansen is referring to is the range between the probability predicted from Scenario A and that predicted by Scenario C as shown in JGR Figure 6.
Dr. Hansen went on to show on more viewgraph on the spatial changes in temperature in the future that was only based on Scenario B.
In all, he showed 5 viewgraphs during his oral testimony, 2 were on the observed global temperature history, and 3 were on model output. Of the 3 model output viewgraphs, 2 of them included the results of all three scenarios. And 1 of them only showed the results of Scenario B. To me at least, this is a far cry from “In fact in his testimony, Hansen ONLY showed results from scenario B, and stated clearly that it was the most probable scenario.” [again, your emphasis].
And while I appreciate your trend calculations (BTW, I calculate the GISS temp trend from 1988-2005 as 0.24ºC/dec. (met. stations) and 0.21ºC/dec. (land-ocean), your time period of interest is the wrong one. The difference between Scenario A projections and observations was pointed out to be large (”300%”) for the period 1988-1997 (as referred to in Pat Michael’s testimony and Novak’s article). The difference between the scenarios and observations has decreased in the intervening 10 years, as you point out. And clearly, Dr. Hansen’s scenario B is the one closest to really 20 years later (fortuitously or not - BTW, the scenarios DID include other trace gases besides CO2) and turned out to be a good prediction. As far as Pat’s justification for only focusing on Scenario A and not showing the predictions from Scenarios B and C, I can’t fully say. However, again, I’ll point out that is his oral and written testimony, Dr. Hansen never indicated a preference between the three scenarios - this was only done in the JGR paper (attached to his prepared written testimony) where he wrote that “Scenario B is PERHAPS the most plausible of the three cases.” [emphasis mine and also note the word “plausible” not “probable”]. This is hardly a ringing endorsement - and one that was not pointed out in his remarks in front of Congress that day.
[Response: Chip, despite your declaration not to want to get debating semantics you are doing exactly that. Focus on the real question: do model predictions made 17 years ago stack up against what has happened or are they ‘300%’ in error? There is only one answer to that (and you know very well what it is). Even if Hansen had not made clear any preferences for the scenarios, the spread still encompasses what happened (which is the best we can hope for going forward). Was Novak justified in using the the ‘300%’ error description? No. Was Michaels? No. Are you? No. Everything else is just smoke and mirrors. -gavin ]
5 April 2006 at 1:40 PM
Thank you, Stefan, for your responses to 8 and 61 and for thoughtfully considering my criticism of what I call the dead-end side road of going after the Post for its perceived failure to police the content of the op-ed columns of the actual offenders Novak and Will. I believe that you and I agree absolutely that newspapers, as you put it, “play a special and necessary role in the functioning of a democracy, and that with this comes a special responsibility and journalistic ethics.” What we don’t agree on, I believe, is two things:
* what it actually takes, as a practical matter
from day to day and from decade to decade, for
the Post’s editors to exercise that
responsibility in running their important
democratic forum, and
* what the criteria are for the Post’s editors
to intervene in the policing way that RC and
some RC commenters have advocated.
It just seems to me that Washington and the country are full of angry people who are flat outright certain that their causes are not only just but pre-eminent, and it seems to me that that reality is what the Post’s editors must deal with across the board on zillions of issues every day. The fact that I believe that _your_ legitimately anger-stimulating cause, Stefan, actually _is_ pre-eminent is precisely why I wish you guys would lay off the Post and concentrate instead on what I see as the actual problem and what you yourself see (I suspect) as the main problem.
[Response: Steven, I don’t think we are “going after the Post” - we criticised two columns that happened to appear in the Post, which we would have criticised no matter which important paper they appeared in (and would have ignored had they appeared in a lesser paper). I am pretty sure that no German quality paper would have printed anything comparable to these columns. The editors would have thought: what’s this nonsense? Because they know the basic science on climate change, and they know about the attempts by interest groups to obfuscate the issue. You seem to excuse the editors by saying they have to deal with “zillions of issues every day”, so they could not have made a simple judgement and recognise those texts for what they are. But climate change is not just one of “zillions of issues” - it is a prime issue of international policy at least since the Earth Summit in 1992, and a prime issue of political disagreement between the US government and most of the rest of the world. If political editors are not well-informed on this issue, and cannot tell a well-founded opinion from cheap propaganda, that to me is simply unprofessional. -stefan]
5 April 2006 at 1:53 PM
Jeff Harvey, thanks for your comments re: Lomborg and my initial comment (#35). I certainly understand why many scientists took exception with The Skeptical Environmentalist, but I still maintain that the response should have been more dispassionate, and that the pile-ons published in Scientific American, Grist and elsewhere unintentionally lent his work stature. The critics, by and large, adopted a dismissive tone that not only made them seem haughty, but also raised the suspicion that Lomborg was an especially vexing opponent.
Yes, some of the mainstream media (hardly a monolith, despite the broad-brush epithet) praised his work and may even have reported it ‘as truth,’ but let’s weigh that against the sum total of environmental reporting out there. When reporters takes some of the mistaken or inflated claims of, say, Lester Brown, and runs with them, do you take equal exception? Or to take an example directly from Lomborg’s book, when Norman Myers’ estimate of the rate of species extinction becomes received wisdom and is passed off not only in the mainstream media but also in the scientific literature as fact, (despite any hard data to support it) is your indignation equally aroused? I’m guessing not and I’m guessing that’s because it’s still in line with what you believe. That’s not meant as an attack on you, but as an observation on human nature.
5 April 2006 at 2:32 PM
I had one naysayer claim that I was dismissing the orbital fluctuation’s responsibilities for ice ages (I wasn’t) and that water vapor was a much bigger forcing than CO2. That Pat Michaels denier group is quite large it seems from the website I found listing a global warming up-is-down fact sheet.
5 April 2006 at 2:35 PM
Novak is not a regular Post columnist like Will so his was a guest op-ed. Some decision was definitely made there whatever that means. Looks like a need for false balance even if one side is a lie. Things really are that bad in the he said she said dichotomy in journalism.
5 April 2006 at 2:39 PM
To Stefan (re response to #65):
* I’ll bet you’re right that German newspaper editors discern more readily, and with more sophistication, among scientific (and pseudo-scientific and anti-scientific) judgments, even in opinion pieces. I wouldn’t know, but I’ll bet you’re right. Once after Anne Applebaum at the Post apologized profusely for daring to venture informed laywoman’s opinions about microbiology in her op-ed column, I wrote to encourage her not to assume newspaper writers can’t have scientific understanding. It was clear from her reply that she just didn’t get at all what I was saying — and when I brought it back up months later, she didn’t answer. American newspaper editors’ and writers’ science awareness and outlook are a problem, I agree. And I’ll even predict that if I look back a year from now and decide that I was more wrong today than you were, this problem will be why.
* When I mentioned that I think your cause actually is a pre-eminent one, and a legitimately anger-stimulating one, I believe I explicitly stated — in advance — my agreement that your issue is, as you now emphasize to me, not just one of zillions.
* With all due respect, I’ve focused from the start (in comment 8 and thereafter) only on RC’s posting’s ending paragraph — the plain language of which plainly contradicts what you now claim about not going after the Post.
* I think our contrasting views are pretty clear now. So I won’t right at present seek new ways to debate you on what we actually disagree about. I respect what you are saying, and I’ll think about it, and I thank you for it, and for indulging my long-windedness. I’ve worked for and with physicists for 20 years, and I think RC is the best breakthrough yet in the effort to have science and society interact sensibly and effectively. Nature’s editors were right, in my view, when they publicized RC in an editorial in December of 04.
[Response: Steven, thanks very much, I appreciated this enlightening discussion. With “not going after the Post” I just meant: we have no reason to single out any particular newspaper (especially not me from my European vantage point); if the NYT had printed several such columns, I would likewise have criticised the editors for doing so. One final point I forgot last night in the rush to get home: I don’t understand your concept of editors “policing” columns. I think they select and buy them, from a great choice offered to them, like me selecting fruit when I go to the market. If I come home with rotten apples, my partner will rightly criticise me. I criticise the editors for making a similar bad choice, albeit with several orders of magnitude greater consequences and responsibility attached. -stefan]
5 April 2006 at 2:56 PM
Here’ the whole roundup on one page.
http://www.clearlight.com/~mhieb/WVFossils/ice_ages.html
5 April 2006 at 2:58 PM
#65: “Also: Roger Pielke (comment 17, item 2) can probably make a sensible case that Will’s and Novak’s op-ed-page pieces must be called columns, not op-eds”
Ummm … “op-ed” is shorthand in the American press for “the page opposite the editorial page”.
Traditionally, unsigned editorials appear on the editorial page, and represent the official position of the newspaper.
Traditionally, signed columns representing the opinion of the signees only appear on the page opposite the editorial page. The op-ed page. These columns are sometimes called “op-eds” because of this. Will’s column is an op-ed piece. Physically “opposite of the editorial page” but also the place where ideologically opposite opinion pieces appear.
Modern newspapers aren’t so rigid in their formatting. For instance, this morning’s Oregonian (my local daily) carried a signed opinion piece by one of its editors - an op-ed piece - on the bottom of the editorial page itself. However, it’s signed by one person and understood to represent the opinion of that one person only.
5 April 2006 at 3:33 PM
Yeah that last link when you get to it contains the source I was arguing with.
http://www.clearlight.com/~mhieb/WVFossils/ice_ages.html
“3. Total human contributions to greenhouse gases account for only about 0.28% of the “greenhouse effect” (Figure 2). Anthropogenic (man-made) carbon dioxide (CO2) comprises about 0.117% of this total, and man-made sources of other gases ( methane, nitrous oxide (NOX), other misc. gases) contributes another 0.163% .
Approximately 99.72% of the “greenhouse effect” is due to natural causes — mostly water vapor and traces of other gases, which we can do nothing at all about. Eliminating human activity altogether would have little impact on climate change.”
So when a naysay-prone lyman sees this presentation it’s easy to see how they could fooled.
[Response: Well ‘caveat lector’ is appropriate here. That linked page is complete nonsense as we discussed here when it came up in some other context: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/01/calculating-the-greenhouse-effect/ - gavin]
5 April 2006 at 3:36 PM
Two questions were asked in 38.
(1) Should the rules of journalistic ethics be more inclusive than normal when dealing with global warming?
(2) Is it unethical for journalists to ignore important material related to global warming?
I say yes to both questions because global warming is so important that it could mean the end to life on earth as we know it.
Does anyone disagree?
5 April 2006 at 4:20 PM
In case Jamie Schwartz is still looking for debate advice, be sure to say “I used to be very concerned” and “I was sure the scientists were right” things like that, “until I started looking into it for myself”. Then go on about how shocked you were at the bad science and unfounded alarmism.
Play to the emotions, you can’t win with logic!
(Don’t forget to shower afterwards)
5 April 2006 at 4:27 PM
Re: 72, I will let the scientists go over the water vapor issue again.
I would just like to say, everyone should keep handy graph of the Vostok ice core data, and any other readable graphs of other cores and sediments.
For Example
This ice core data is Nobel prize material, and we could all be educated enough to argue the basics from that. I need an online version with all the core and sediment measurments, smoothed somewhat and easily accessible.
5 April 2006 at 4:53 PM
>clearlight.com
Last updated in 2002, but the charts and cites are from the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Frozen in time.
5 April 2006 at 5:58 PM
Several have mentioned this before: Another site is needed to consider various means of ameliorating GW which have enough impact to be meaningful. Does such a site already exists? If not, I hope somebody with both the webmaster knowledge and time will start one, one with enough integrity that eventually RealClimate will link to it on the sidebar. While I am still learning about climate, I believe I could contribute a few useful pointers and directions to such a site. Thanks.
5 April 2006 at 6:02 PM
A distinction between op-eds and columns is important because a paper’s editorial staff selects op-eds to publish that are submitted. Columns appear on a schedule and if a decision is to made by the newpaper it would be to reject it. These different decision processes are important in whether or not one decides to get lathered up about the Wash Post in particular or Novak more generally. Thanks.
5 April 2006 at 6:02 PM
Another columnist playing the skeptic game!
How exciting!
It’ll be interesting to see if they try to keep it up. Perhaps itâ??s just coincidence. There’s been an awful lot of global warming stories lately. Antarctica warming, Antarctic glacial melt with new measurement method, sea level rise with new measurement method, Greenland melt, Hurricanes, change in ocean current.
You’ve got to expect some contrary opinion.
5 April 2006 at 8:36 PM
#78: “A distinction between op-eds and columns is important because a paper’s editorial staff selects op-eds to publish that are submitted. Columns appear on a schedule and if a decision is to made by the newpaper it would be to reject it. These different decision processes are important in whether or not one decides to get lathered up about the Wash Post in particular or Novak more generally.”
Not to get too worked-up over terminology but there’s no difference between “op-eds” and “columns” such as you describe. “Guest column” describes what you’re calling an “op-ed”. Traditionally both regular signed columns and guest columns (which are often one-shot submissions by a writer) appeared on the op-ed page …
In fact, if you go to the New York Times website you’ll see they list their stable of columnists, such as Thomas Freidman, as “Op-Ed Columnists”. And, of course, the Times still runs their op-eds on the op-ed page, editorials and letters to the editor on the editorial page …
5 April 2006 at 8:52 PM
Notice how in the set to about op-eds and columns ontology begets epistomology. This is a trivial issue. Now think about how the same principle affects such issues as anthropic climate change and why controlling the dictionary controls the debate.
6 April 2006 at 12:17 AM
Yeah but Roger P has a point in the process. Op-ed’s per se are guest spots to put it into TV terms which as a SAG member I can easily. Columnists are regular cast members under contract. Novak was a guest star that week at the WP. He’s not regular cast. Op-ed’s pay roughly $375 at the NYT. They’re prime freelance expert territory and thus very competitive to land.
[Response: The exact nomenclature applied to Novak’s column is a somewhat peripheral issue. Newspapers do have the power to decline publication of material that is blatantly false or misleading. One rather illumination example is that the Chicago Tribune last year banned an Aaron McGruder “Boondocks” cartoon strip (on the cartoon page, not the editorial page!) because it had President Bush making a statement that he hadn’t literally made — to quote the Tribune “Today’s original Boondocks strip presents inaccurate information as fact.” I don’t want to argue about whether the Tribune’s action was excesssive in that instance, but certainly that characterization applies in spades to Novak’s column. Curiously, newspapers do seem to be cavalier with regard to the veracity of what they publish on their op ed pages. When a well-known columnist like Novak or Will present inaccurate information as fact, there should be consequences. I’m open to suggestions as to what those consequences should be. Generally, the best answer to the bad consequences of free speech is yet more free speech. The problem is one of how to compete with the large audience of a columnist like Novak, and the amount of credibility accorded to him by his position. –raypierre]
6 April 2006 at 9:40 AM
As any dunce should know, science is evidence/theory dependent & uses vigorous techniques for validation & reliability. And, ergo, it’s a field whose knowledge changes (unlike journalism, I guess). So, just for argument’s sake, supposing a scientist were wrong 10, 20, 30 years ago (but came to his/her conclusions honestly & based on the best evidence/theory to date), that means absolutely nada about the science going on today.
We’d expect better and more refined data & theory as time passes. And that’s what we’re getting. Thanks so much for all your hard work & brain straining.
I think certain journalists should go back to elementary school and learn the basics about science. They really goofed off during those classes.
6 April 2006 at 12:43 PM
Ray they definitely made a conscious decison to run the Novak follow up so I agree with you completely. It was deliberate. I think you need to write one and submit it as a rebuttal. You have the stature and they respect that despite running these shill pieces from ideologue like the two columnists in question. Do it now while the iron is still hot.
6 April 2006 at 12:56 PM
Endless opinions, mine included.
Everyone in the debate is talking about, one way or the other, adjustments to human population, due to climate changes. But the changes due to resouce constraints are happening right now; in terms of changes to fertility rates, population migration, famine, refugees, and the like. What is hapening to humans right now is of the same scale as what will happen to humans in 50 to 100 years because of climate change.
Everyone freaks about New York flooding, but we just evacuated New Orleans in the USA, in a few days, and it was hardly a blip on our economic radar. We worry the Los Ageles population of 10 million, but we absorb that many refugees every few years. European demographics is already being changed by other resource constraints.
Really, you guys are always complaining about the weather.
6 April 2006 at 2:43 PM
As a biologist I can tell you life at carrying capacity is a tough row to hoe. It’s all related.
6 April 2006 at 3:18 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/05/AR2006040502150_pf.html
6 April 2006 at 4:08 PM
===Post #74=======================================
Two questions were asked in 38.
(1) Should the rules of journalistic ethics be more inclusive than normal when dealing with global warming?
(2) Is it unethical for journalists to ignore important material related to global warming?
I say yes to both questions because global warming is so important that it could mean the end to life on earth as we know it.
Does anyone disagree?
Comment by Pat Neuman â?? 5 Apr 2006 @ 3:36 pm
=============================================
I am unsure what you mean by the “inclusive” in regards to journalist’s ethics in regards to global warming. Or is it “self-censorship” that you are really advocating?
Journalists can not be accused of ignoring the issue of AGW. For the most part, they unquestioningly regurgitate whatever new information is presented to them. Unfortunately, intimidated by the complex science, there is little, if any, critical analysis attempted on this admittedly complex subject.
The reporting on AGW has tended to exaggerate the risks of AGW by constantly highlighting worst case scenarios. This is a greater journalistic failure then any column that Robert Novak has written.
6 April 2006 at 5:31 PM
Gavin (re #65),
I absolutely agree with you that Scenario B has proven over the course of the past 17 years to have been a pretty darn good forecast. At the time it was made, back in 1988, it represented a forecast that was pretty much on the low of things. For that matter it still is. Scenario B shows a warming between 2000 and 2050 of just under 0.75ºC. Very close to the same number that Dr. Hansen has set forth in his series of PNAS papers of the past several years. In fact, this is very nearly the same number that Pat Michaels has been saying through time. The only difference is, as we have pointed out on numerous occasion in our WCRs (e.g. here ) is that Dr. Hansen thinks that this amount of temperature increase will cause disastrous sea level rise and Pat doesn’t. So I guess, besides this point, we are all pretty much in agreement.
That said, however, you are taking the original “300%R