CMIP5 simulations

The CLIVAR newsletter has a number of other interesting articles, on CFMIP (p20), the scenarios begin used (RCPs) (p12), the ESG data delivery system (p40), satellite comparisons (p46, and p47) and the carbon-cycle simulations (p27). Indeed, the range of issues covered I think presages the depth and interest that the CMIP5 archive will eventually generate.

There will be a WCRP meeting in October in Denver that will be very focused on the CMIP5 results, and it is likely that much of context for the AR5 report will be reflected there.

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113 comments on this post.
  1. Hank Roberts:

    oops — mispasted inquiry 20 Aug 2011 at 11:03 AM
    re Salby, sorry; entirely out of place

  2. john burgeson:

    I need a recommendation for a SHORT and readable book (or article) which is readable by a HS graduate and sets forth the case for climate change as clearly as possible. My grandson is not scientifically oriented, and at age 28

  3. Hank Roberts:

    > recommendation for a SHORT and readable book
    I’ll post one or two, replying over in the open thread:

  4. john burgeson:

    Thanks, Hank. Appreciated.

  5. Meow:

    @102: Try this, which is from a lively historical perspective.

  6. Denis Royer:

    @ CMIP5 simulations : Glad that you mention the role of hobbyists in the climate science. I rather would term them as “amateur climatologists” with reference to amateur astronomers whose contributions to astronomy is not more to mention. The analogy is obvious, the data mining and micro-computers replacing the sky observation and the telescopes.
    From a retired nuclear physicist (and an amateur astronomer)

  7. William Freimuth:

    Earlier I posted a rant (#4); please forgive me and accept my heartfelt gratitude for your scientific research.

  8. Kevin McKinney:


    A very short article doing roughly that:

  9. Hank Roberts:

    Paywalled ( $20/yr for AGU membership) — worth a look:

    VOLUME 92 NUMBER 31 2 August 2011

    View entire full-size issue. [PDF 5.15 MB]

    Guidelines for Constructing Climate Scenarios
    How best can scientists understand and characterize uncertainty in climate predictions, and what are some key considerations when selecting and combining climate model outputs to generate scenarios? Addressing these questions in the context of recent research leads to some possible guidelines for creating and applying climate scenarios.
    By P. Mote et al.

  10. Geoff Sherrington:

    The journal “Analytical Chemistry” in 1986 reported a summary of analytical chemistry of lunar material collected during Apollo missions. Author, G.H. Morrison.
    Many laboratories submitted their replicate analyses of the same material, to give a “within laboratory variance” (here WLV). More than a score of the world’s top laboratories analysed most of the elements, so it was possible to compute a “between laboratory variance”, BLV. In many cases the WLV was less than the BLV, meaning that the laboratories were optimistic of their capabilities. Unfortunately, the BLV was larger than many has hoped for, but it was the variance that had to be used because there was no known way to discard some laboratories and keep others.
    To theme. After CMIP3, I blogged repeatedly that modellers should submit the results of all test runs, excluding those with known, excusable errors,not just those that had a good feel to them. In this way, a within model variance can be found. When all modellers report, a between model variance can be calculated and compared. If it is calculated with the inclusion of the within model variance, rather than on 1 or 2 preferred model outcomes per modeller (analogous to the lunar rocks example) a better estimate of confidence in models can be derived.
    Do you know if this is going to be done?

  11. Geoff Sherrington:

    Re 110 – date error. The paper is ANALYTICAL CHEMISTRY, VOL. 43, NO. 7, JUNE 1971. “Evaluation of Lunar Elemental Analyses”. George Morrison was at Cornell University.

    In the past I have been troubled by the significance of some modelling in GCMs because the uncertainty was ill defined. In 110 I suggest application of a method learned at high expense from older study. Although older, the fundamentals have not been overtaken by new developments.

  12. Ray Ladbury:

    Geoff Sherrington, Thank you for that utterly irrelevant suggestion, based on an utter and complete misunderstanding of how climate models, climate science and science in general work.

  13. Geoff Sherrington:

    112. Ray Ladbury. And the suggestion is irrelevant because ….?Soingli Museaum