Unforced variations: Jan 2026

295 Responses to "Unforced variations: Jan 2026"

1. Data says

   28 Jan 2026 at 12:35 AM

   Contrary to RC ‘biased moderates’ [the non-climate science proponents of various arguments against the increasing risk of GAGW ‘catastrophic anthropogenic global warming’ today], while minimizing and denying accelerating warming rates driving future catastrophic risks and mislabelling others presenting credible information as “wrong or extreme doomers”, the fact is CAGW ‘catastrophic anthropogenic global warming’ is already upon us now.

   “[…] CAGW is simply a straw man used by climate contrarians to criticize the mainstream position.”
   https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2026/01/a-peek-behind-the-curtain/#comment-844414
   https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2026/01/a-peek-behind-the-curtain/#comment-844428
   and
   https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2026/01/a-peek-behind-the-curtain/#comment-844368
   https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2026/01/a-peek-behind-the-curtain/#comment-844437
   iow another “Don’t believe your own eyes” moment.
   ===

   Example: Atomsk’s Sanakan repeatedly denies and undermines the following kinds of climate science findings as being misunderstood, due to people not reading his own references or commentary, as extreme unfounded opinions, not believable, nor supported by climate science… when in fact these are broad based well known consensus climate science findings.

   The following simultaneously supports the findings of IGCC Forster et al 2024-2025, Foster-Rahmstorf 2025, Hansen et al 2024-2025 incl prior papers, along with many other climate science papers in particular the established rapid acceleration in warming since 2010; while undermining almost everything pushed by Atomsk’s Sanakan these last months and years.

   We are hurtling toward climate chaos. The planet’s vital signs are
   flashing red. The consequences of human-driven alterations of
   the climate are no longer future threats but are here now. This
   unfolding emergency stems from failed foresight, political inac-
   tion, unsustainable economic systems, and misinformation. Al-
   most every corner of the biosphere is reeling from intensifying
   heat, storms, floods, droughts, or fires. The window to prevent the
   worst outcomes is rapidly closing.

   In this report, we seek to speak candidly to fellow scientists,
   policymakers, and humanity at large. Given our roles in research
   and higher education, we share an ethical responsibility to sound
   the alarm about escalating global risks and to take collective ac-
   tion in confronting them with clarity and resolve. We show evi-
   dence of accelerated warming and document changes in Earth’s
   vital signs.

   The last few years have seen surface temperature, ocean temper-
   ature, and sea ice extent records broken by extraordinary margins
   (supplemental figure S1). This is consistent with warming acceler-
   ating because of a large cloud feedback and decreasing emissions
   of aerosols that mask warming (Hansen et al. 2025, Tselioudis
   et al. 2025). The rapid pace of warming may also be partly because
   of a weakening land carbon sink. In 2023, land uptake of carbon
   dioxide dropped sharply from historical averages, likely driven by
   El Niño and intense forest fires (Friedlingstein et al. 2024). As a re-
   sult, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rose unusually
   quickly, despite only modest increases in fossil fuel emissions.

   The year 2024 set a new mean global surface temperature record, signaling an escalation of climate upheaval.
   Currently, 22 of 34 planetary vital signs are at record levels.
   Warming may be accelerating, likely driven by reduced aerosol cooling, strong cloud feedbacks, and a darkening planet.
   The human enterprise is driving ecological overshoot. Population, livestock, meat consumption, and gross domestic product
   are all at record highs, with an additional approximately 1.3 million humans and 0.5 million ruminants added weekly.
   In 2024, fossil fuel energy consumption hit a record high, with coal, oil, and gas all at peak levels.

   As a result of surging fossil fuel consumption, energy-related
   emissions rose 1.3% in 2024, reaching an all-time high of 40.8
   gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 eq; figure 1j).

   The losses within tropical primary forest were particularly large
   in 2024, with fire-related losses reaching a record high of 3.2 Mha,
   compared with just 0.69 Mha in 2023—a 370% increase

   On the basis of year-to-date averages, atmospheric concentrations
   of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide were all at record
   high levels again in 2025 (figure 2a–2c).

   An important predictor of future warming is Earth’s energy
   imbalance—the difference between the amount of solar energy
   absorbed and the amount radiated back into space (figure 2m). It
   is rising much more quickly than predicted by most climate mod-
   els, possibly because of a darker planet corresponding to a large
   decrease in Earth’s albedo, which is near an all-time low.

   Each additional [0.10C] tenth of a degree of global warming leads to
   a disproportionately greater rise in disasters related to extreme
   weather and many additional people facing intolerable heat stress
   (Lenton et al. 2023). The past year has seen a surge in devastating
   climate-related disasters around the world (table 1). From deadly
   floods and wildfires to record-breaking storms and heatwaves, the
   evidence is overwhelming:

   These prolonged and intensifying water extremes, likely
   driven primarily by rising global temperatures, underscore
   growing hydroclimatic whiplash—extreme swings between wet
   and dry conditions (Li and Rodell 2023, Rodell and Li 2023)

   Although all climate and weather extremes have multiple physical
   drivers, these disasters are part of a broader pattern of es-
   calating risk driven by a warming planet.

   The accelerating climate crisis presents a range of deeply in-
   terconnected risks that threaten to destabilize the Earth system
   and society.

   Recent catastrophic events include:
   September 2024
   Hurricane Helene caused catastrophic flooding and wind damage across six southeastern US states, leading to 251 deaths and US$78.7 billion in damages.
   October 2024
   catastrophic flooding, extreme rainfall, hail, and tornadoes in southeastern Spain caused over 200 deaths and billions in damages
   December 2024
   Cyclone Chido caused catastrophic damage in and near Southeast Africa, injuring 6534
   people and resulting in at least 172 deaths and more than US$681 million in damages
   March 2025
   Over 400 millimeters of rain in 8 hours caused catastrophic flooding in Bahía Blanca,
   killing 17, and resulting in US$400 million in infrastructure damage, and overwhelming homes, hospitals, and drainage systems.
   July 2025
   A catastrophic overnight flash flood in Central Texas, in the United States, killed at least 135 people, and became one of the deadliest single-night disasters in state history.

   [AMOC] collapse could also initiate cascading tipping events,
   amplifying the impacts to a catastrophic level. These impacts may
   already be occurring; for instance, between 2005 and 2022, up to
   half of the flooding events along the northeastern US coast may
   have been driven by Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
   weakening (Zhang et al. 2025).

   Conclusion: We are entering a period where only bold, coordinated
   action can prevent catastrophic outcomes.

   Who wrote this?
   William J. Ripple, Christopher Wolf , Michael E. Mann, Johan Rockström, Jillian W. Gregg, and others
   Ref: https://michaelmann.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/RippleEtAlBioscience2025.pdf

   The only things Atomsk’s Sanakan talks about are an impossible to meet short-term negative CI of statistical significance hypothetical that ignores all recent data trends and his non-stop minimizing of the accelerated warming scientific consensus since 2010 while making incredible unrealistic future GMST predictions not based on credible UpToDate science data. I don’t believe anything he says as a result, because it’s all dubious rhetoric based on cherry-picking and logical fallacies being distorted by a flood of nonsensical references no one could reasonably follow.

   While others waste time and space over irrelevant CDR/DAC sequestration issues which are never going to happen in any form at scale nor will it stop Net Zero Emissions by 2050 becoming an abject failure. At any future time included, short of an implacable global civilization and economic collapse that’d make COVID and the GFC look like a minor hiccups.

   As shown in this “mainstream but contrary science” it is Atomsk’s Sanakan who is misleading others by distorting and cherry picking what info he’ll use while ignoring proper science practise. Then repeatedly refusing to admit he is wrong when challenged with facts backed by Data.

   To Geoff Miell A’sS says: “This isn’t a question of policy. It’s a question of statistical significance in science.”
   https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2025/11/unforced-variations-nov-2025/#comment-842265

   No, it is not. It’s all about the observable Physics and proper scientific process.

   The big problem climate science distorters/deniers like Atomsk’s Sanakan have is:
   Statistical significance is not the same thing as real-world risk. You can’t use a p-value to dismiss the possibility of catastrophe, especially when the stakes are existential.

   And the irony is: The only people who keep insisting “it’s not significant” are the ones who want to avoid acting until the crisis is undeniable. That’s not science — it’s denial dressed up as rigor.
   https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2026/01/unforced-variations-jan-2026/#comment-844027

   Atomsk’s Sanakan’s long-term non-CAGW stance calls on people to “Trust the process, the experts, the institutions,” the outdated IPCC and CMIP outputs, the dashboards, the COP system, and Statistical certainty of 95% CI — Which works — until it doesn’t.

   afaik Atomsk’s Sanakan has been actively undermining climate science for years, yet still no climate scientist has effectively confronted his distortions, his cherry-picking, his manipulations of the general public about the risks and implications of GAGW ‘catastrophic anthropogenic global warming’.

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