• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

RealClimate

Climate science from climate scientists...

  • Start here
  • Model-Observation Comparisons
  • Miscellaneous Climate Graphics
  • Surface temperature graphics
You are here: Home / 2022 / Archives for February 2022

Archives for February 2022

Future rainfall over Sahel and Sahara

6 Feb 2022 by rasmus

Ethiopia is praying for rain according to a recent report from the Guardian, and ReliefWeb suggests that a lack of rain may be linked to malnutrition in Tchad, as well as reduced crops in Niger. 

The African rainfall deficit appears to be widespread: the Cairo Review reports severe droughts that have been experienced across the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and Southern Africa in 2011 and 2020. But the picture is also more complicated, as heavy rains have unleashed massive flooding across South Sudan according to the Red Cross.

A similar ambiguity can also be seen in the future prospects for this region. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (Assessment Report 6, often referred to as ‘AR6’) presents maps showing projected changes in the precipitation, e.g. in Figure SPM.5 and the IPCC Atlas. 

The most recent precipitation projections reveal a remarkable dark green blob covering parts of Sahel and Sahara in addition to the Arabian peninsula, suggesting that this dry region may be blessed with more rainfall in the future (e.g. Figure 1). 

Figure 1. A map from Figure SPM.5 from IPCC AR6 slides, showing percentage change in annual mean precipitation from a historical baseline (1850-1900). These results represent the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (also known as ‘CMIP6’) Global Climate Models (GCMs). 

[Read more…] about Future rainfall over Sahel and Sahara

Filed Under: Climate Science

Another dot on the graphs (Part II)

2 Feb 2022 by Gavin

We have now updated the model-observations comparison page for the 2021 SAT and MSU TMT datasets. Mostly this is just ‘another dot on the graphs’ but we have made a couple of updates of note. First, we have updated the observational products to their latest versions (i.e. HadCRUT5, NOAA-STAR 4.1 etc.), though we are still using NOAA’s GlobalTemp v5 – the Interim version will be available later this year. Secondly, we have added a comparison of the observations to the new CMIP6 model ensemble.

[Read more…] about Another dot on the graphs (Part II)

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, Instrumental Record, IPCC, Model-Obs Comparisons

Unforced Variations: Feb 2022

1 Feb 2022 by group

February in Central Park

This month’s open thread on climate science issues. Please be constructive, non-abusive and on-topic.

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread

Primary Sidebar

Search

Search for:

Email Notification

get new posts sent to you automatically (free)
Loading

Recent Posts

  • Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Time and Tide Gauges wait for no Voortman
  • Lil’ NAS Express
  • DOE CWG Report “Moot”?
  • Climate Scientists response to DOE report

Our Books

Book covers
This list of books since 2005 (in reverse chronological order) that we have been involved in, accompanied by the publisher’s official description, and some comments of independent reviewers of the work.
All Books >>

Recent Comments

  • Nigelj on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Kevin McKinney on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Kevin McKinney on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Kevin McKinney on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Kevin McKinney on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Atomsk's Sanakan on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Susan Anderson on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Tomáš Kalisz on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Atomsk's Sanakan on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • JCM on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Atomsk's Sanakan on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Atomsk's Sanakan on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Piotr on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • David on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • David on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • David on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • David on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • David on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Mo watever on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Killian on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Mo watever on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Killian on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Killian on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Killian on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Keith Woollard on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Mo Yunus on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Tomáš Kalisz on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Mo Yunus on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • prl on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Piotr on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”

Footer

ABOUT

  • About
  • Translations
  • Privacy Policy
  • Contact Page
  • Login

DATA AND GRAPHICS

  • Data Sources
  • Model-Observation Comparisons
  • Surface temperature graphics
  • Miscellaneous Climate Graphics

INDEX

  • Acronym index
  • Index
  • Archives
  • Contributors

Realclimate Stats

1,383 posts

11 pages

247,494 comments

Copyright © 2025 · RealClimate is a commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists for the interested public and journalists.