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You are here: Home / 2024 / Archives for January 2024

Archives for January 2024

Unforced variations: Feb 2024

31 Jan 2024 by group

This month’s open thread for climate topics. This month’s climate highlight will likely be the PACE launch at some point between Feb 6th and Feb 8th, that will hopefully provide information on aerosols and ocean color with more detail than ever before. Fingers crossed!


A few notes on the blog and commenting. We have an open thread (this one!) for random discussions or new topics. Comments on specific posts should be related to the topic. Random contrarian nonsense is just going to get deleted (as are the complaints about it). Additionally, excessive and argumentative commenting is tiresome – remember this is a blog and (almost) no-one reads the comments, but they never will if it’s dominated by only one or two people shouting past each other. Please stick to the one substantive comment per day rule if you can (and the moderation will help if you can’t).

Secondly, there have been some complaints about the lack of comment previews (which we used to have) and the lack of ability to move nonsense to the Crank Shaft or Bore Hole threads. This functionality was provided by old plugins that worked really well until they didn’t. The ‘Ajax Comment Preview’ plugin hasn’t been updated in years and no longer works at all, and the move comment plugin we used has been identified as being a security risk. If readers know of alternatives that are being actively developed and keeping up with WordPress versions, please let us know, we will be happy to try them out.

Thanks for continuing to engage with the topics and ideas here.

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread, Solutions

Spencer’s Shenanigans

28 Jan 2024 by Gavin

A recent sensible-sounding piece by Roy Spencer for the Heritage foundation is full of misrepresentations. Let’s play spot the fallacy.

[Read more…] about Spencer’s Shenanigans

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, IPCC Tagged With: CMIP6, MSU, Roy Spencer

Not just another dot on the graph? Part II

16 Jan 2024 by Gavin

Annual updates to the model-observation comparisons for 2023 are now complete. The comparisons encompass surface air temperatures, mid-troposphere temperatures (global and tropical, and ‘corrected’), sea surface temperatures, and stratospheric temperatures. In almost every case, the addition of the 2023 numbers was in line with the long term expectation from the models.

[Read more…] about Not just another dot on the graph? Part II

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, Model-Obs Comparisons, Oceans Tagged With: CMIP3, CMIP5, CMIP6, MSU, SAT, SSU, TMT

Not just another dot on the graph?

12 Jan 2024 by Gavin

As the climate monitoring groups add an additional dot to their graphs this week, there is some disquiet among people paying attention about just how extraordinary 2023 really was.

[Read more…] about Not just another dot on the graph?

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Climate modelling, Climate Science, El Nino, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, Oceans

Annual GMSAT predictions and ENSO

5 Jan 2024 by Gavin

For the last few years (since at least 2016), I’ve shared predictions for the next annual global mean surface air temperature (GMSAT) anomaly based on the long term trend and the state of ENSO at the start of the year. Generally speaking, this has been quite skillful compared to persistence or just the long term trend alone – the eventual anomaly was consistently within the predicted bounds. Until 2023.

[Read more…] about Annual GMSAT predictions and ENSO

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, El Nino, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, statistics

Unforced variations: Jan 2024

1 Jan 2024 by group

New year, new open thread on climate topics. Note that summaries and updates to include 2023 data will be posted on the surface temperature graphics page and model-observations comparison page over the next couple of weeks as the data becomes available.

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread, Solutions

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