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You are here: Home / 2023 / Archives for May 2023

Archives for May 2023

Evaluation of GCM simulations with a regional focus.

31 May 2023 by rasmus

Do the global climate models (GCMs) we use for describing future climate change really capture the change and variations in the region that we want to study? There are widely used tools for evaluating global climate models, such as the ESMValTool, but they don’t provide the answers that I seek.

I use GCMs to provide information about large-scale conditions, processes and phenomena in the atmosphere that I can use as predictors in downscaling future climate projections. I also want to know whether the ensemble of GCM simulations that I use provides representative statistics of the actual regional climate I’m interested in. 

[Read more…] about Evaluation of GCM simulations with a regional focus.

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, statistics Tagged With: CMIP5, CMIP6

CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

21 May 2023 by Gavin

As predicted in 1967 by Manabe and Wetherald, the stratosphere has been cooling.

A new paper by Ben Santer and colleagues has appeared in PNAS where they extend their previous work on the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change to include the upper stratosphere, using observations from the Stratospheric Sounding Units (SSUs) (and their successors, the AMSU instruments) that have flown since 1979.

[Read more…] about CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

References

  1. B.D. Santer, S. Po-Chedley, L. Zhao, C. Zou, Q. Fu, S. Solomon, D.W.J. Thompson, C. Mears, and K.E. Taylor, "Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 120, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2300758120

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Greenhouse gases, Instrumental Record, Sun-earth connections Tagged With: CMIP6, SSU

Unforced variations: May 2023

1 May 2023 by group

This month’s open thread on climate topics. Please be succinct, courteous and on point.

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread, Solutions

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