RealClimate

Climate science from climate scientists...

You are here: Home / Archives for Climate Science / Model-Obs Comparisons

Model-Obs Comparisons

2012 Updates to model-observation comparisons

by

Time for the 2012 updates!

As has become a habit (2009, 2010, 2011), here is a brief overview and update of some of the most discussed model/observation comparisons, updated to include 2012. I include comparisons of surface temperatures, sea ice and ocean heat content to the CMIP3 and Hansen et al (1988) simulations.
[Read more…] about 2012 Updates to model-observation comparisons

2011 Updates to model-data comparisons

by

And so it goes – another year, another annual data point. As has become a habit (2009, 2010), here is a brief overview and update of some of the most relevant model/data comparisons. We include the standard comparisons of surface temperatures, sea ice and ocean heat content to the AR4 and 1988 Hansen et al simulations.
[Read more…] about 2011 Updates to model-data comparisons

Updates to model-data comparisons

by

It’s worth going back every so often to see how projections made back in the day are shaping up. As we get to the end of another year, we can update all of the graphs of annual means with another single datapoint. Statistically this isn’t hugely important, but people seem interested, so why not?

Una traduzione in italiano è disponibile qui.
[Read more…] about Updates to model-data comparisons

What the IPCC models really say Lo que dicen realmente los modelos del IPCCCosa dicono realmente i modelli dell‘IPCC

by

Over the last couple of months there has been much blog-viating about what the models used in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) do and do not predict about natural variability in the presence of a long-term greenhouse gas related trend. Unfortunately, much of the discussion has been based on graphics, energy-balance models and descriptions of what the forced component is, rather than the full ensemble from the coupled models. That has lead to some rather excitable but ill-informed buzz about very short time scale tendencies. We have already discussed how short term analysis of the data can be misleading, and we have previously commented on the use of the uncertainty in the ensemble mean being confused with the envelope of possible trajectories (here). The actual model outputs have been available for a long time, and it is somewhat surprising that no-one has looked specifically at it given the attention the subject has garnered. So in this post we will examine directly what the individual model simulations actually show.

Una traducción está disponible aquí
Una traduzione in italiano è disponibile qui
[Read more…] about What the IPCC models really say Lo que dicen realmente los modelos del IPCCCosa dicono realmente i modelli dell‘IPCC