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Not just another dot on the graph? Part II

16 Jan 2024 by Gavin

Annual updates to the model-observation comparisons for 2023 are now complete. The comparisons encompass surface air temperatures, mid-troposphere temperatures (global and tropical, and ‘corrected’), sea surface temperatures, and stratospheric temperatures. In almost every case, the addition of the 2023 numbers was in line with the long term expectation from the models.

[Read more…] about Not just another dot on the graph? Part II

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, Model-Obs Comparisons, Oceans Tagged With: CMIP3, CMIP5, CMIP6, MSU, SAT, SSU, TMT

CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

21 May 2023 by Gavin

As predicted in 1967 by Manabe and Wetherald, the stratosphere has been cooling.

A new paper by Ben Santer and colleagues has appeared in PNAS where they extend their previous work on the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change to include the upper stratosphere, using observations from the Stratospheric Sounding Units (SSUs) (and their successors, the AMSU instruments) that have flown since 1979.

[Read more…] about CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

References

  1. B.D. Santer, S. Po-Chedley, L. Zhao, C. Zou, Q. Fu, S. Solomon, D.W.J. Thompson, C. Mears, and K.E. Taylor, "Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 120, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2300758120

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Greenhouse gases, Instrumental Record, Sun-earth connections Tagged With: CMIP6, SSU

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