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about Gavin Schmidt

Gavin Schmidt is a climate modeler, working for NASA and with Columbia University.

Gulf Stream slowdown? Est-ce que le Gulf Stream ralentit ?

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There has been an overwhelming popular demand for us to weigh in on recent reports in the Times Britain faces big chill as ocean current slows and CNN Changes in Gulf Stream could chill Europe (note the interesting shift in geographical perspective!).
par Gavin Schmidt (traduit par Pierre Allemand)

Nous avons été submergés de demandes d’évaluation des rapports récents du Times
“Britain faces big chill as ocean current slows” (la Grande Bretagne soumise à un refroidissement important en raison du ralentissement de courants océaniques) et de CNN “Changes in Gulf Stream could chill Europe” Les changement du Gulf Stream pourrait refroidir l’Europe), (notez l’intéressant glissement de perspective géographique !).

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Planetary energy imbalance?

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The recent paper in Science Express by Hansen et al (on which I am a co-author) has garnered quite a lot of press attention and has been described as the ‘smoking gun’ for anthropogenic climate change. We have discussed many of the relevant issues here before, but it may be useful to go over the arguments again here.

The key points of the paper are that: i) model simulations with 20th century forcings are able to match the surface air temperature record, ii) they also match the measured changes of ocean heat content over the last decade, iii) the implied planetary imbalance (the amount of excess energy the Earth is currently absorbing) which is roughly equal to the ocean heat uptake, is significant and growing, and iv) this implies both that there is significant heating “in the pipeline”, and that there is an important lag in the climate’s full response to changes in the forcing.

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Ozone depletion and global warming Perte d’ozone et réchauffement climatique Ozon Azalması ve Küresel Isınma

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One of the most common mistakes that we have observed in discussions of climate and atmospheric change is confusion between the rather separate concepts of ozone depletion and global warming. This isn’t necessarily surprising given the scant information that most people pick up from the media. However, for many years meteorologists have been fighting a rearguard action to persuade people that the globe isn’t warming because there is more sun coming through the ozone hole. There are however important connections between the two issues that complicate potential actions that we might take to alleviate the different problems. This week, for instance, a new IPCC report was released that looked at the greenhouse warming potential of many of the replacement chemicals (HFCs and HCFCs) that were used to replace CFCs in aerosol cans and refrigeration units under the Montreal Protocol (and subsequent amendments).
par Gavin Schmidt, traduit par Vincent Noel

Dans le débat sur le changement climatique, l’une des erreurs les plus courantes est la confusion entre la diminution de l’ozone et le réchauffement planétaire. Ceci n’est pas vraiment surprenant, compte tenu de la qualité discutable des informations propagées par les medias.

Depuis plusieurs années maintenant, les climatologues et météorologues tentent d’expliquer au public que si la planète se rechauffe, ce n’est pas parce qu’il y a davantage de rayonnement solaire qui passe par le trou dans la couche d’ozone. Les deux phénomenes sont cependant étroitement liés, ce qui complique l’adoption d’une stratégie pour s’attaquer à l’un ou l’autre de ces problèmes. Cette semaine, par exemple, un nouveau rapport de l’IPCC s’est interessé au possible effet de serre des produits chimiques (HCF et HCFC) utilisés pour remplacer les CFC dans les bombes aérosols et les systèmes de refroidissement dans le cadre du protocole de Montréal (et de ses amendements).

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Water vapour: feedback or forcing?

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Whenever three or more contrarians are gathered together, one will inevitably claim that water vapour is being unjustly neglected by ‘IPCC’ scientists. “Why isn’t water vapour acknowledged as a greenhouse gas?”, “Why does anyone even care about the other greenhouse gases since water vapour is 98% of the effect?”, “Why isn’t water vapour included in climate models?”, “Why isn’t included on the forcings bar charts?” etc. Any mainstream scientist present will trot out the standard response that water vapour is indeed an important greenhouse gas, it is included in all climate models, but it is a feedback and not a forcing. From personal experience, I am aware that these distinctions are not clear to many, and so here is a more in-depth response (see also this other attempt).

Eine Übersetzung in deutsch finden Sie hier.
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IPCC in action: Part I

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This is the first of two pieces on the recent IPCC workshop in Hawaii, This brought together independent researchers from all over the world to analyse computer model simulations of the last 150 years and to assess whether they are actually any good.

Guest commentary from Natassa Romanou (Columbia University)

During the first 3 days of March 2005, balmy downtown Honolulu in Hawaii was buzzing with agile scientists conversing, chatting, announcing, briefing and informing about IPCC assessment reports, climate models, model evaluations, climate sensitivities and feedbacks. These were the participants of the Climate Model Evaluation Project workshop (CMEP) and came here from most (if not all) the major, most prestigious climate research laboratories of the world, including; The US labs National Center for Atmospheric Research, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the British Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, the German Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, the French Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques and the IPSL/LMD/LSCE, the Australian CSIRO Atmospheric Research, the Chinese Institute of Atmospheric Physics, the Russian Institute for Numerical Mathematics and the Japanese Meteorological Research Institute. This meeting was sponsored by the benevolent NSF, NOAA, NASA and DOE.

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Will spring 2005 be a bad one for Arctic ozone? Le printemps 2005 comptera-t-il parmi les mauvais pour l’ozone arctique ?

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Guest Commentary by Drew Shindell (NASA GISS)

The current winter and early spring have been extremely cold in the Arctic stratosphere, leading to the potential for substantial ozone depletion there. This has been alluded to recently in the press (Sitnews, Seattle Post Intelligencer), but what’s the likely outcome, and why is it happening?

Par Drew Shindell, NASA, GISS (traduit par Pierre Allemand)

L’hiver actuel et le début du printemps ont été extrêmement froids dans la stratosphère arctique, ce qui est un facteur de réduction substantielle de l’ozone dans cette région. La presse a récemment fait allusion à ce phénomène, (Sitnews, Seattle Post Intelligencer),mais quels sont, en fait, les résultats, et qu’est-ce qui fait que cela arrive ?

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Why looking for global warming in the oceans is a good idea Voici pourquoi rechercher le réchauffement global dans les océans est pertinent

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A lot of press and commentary came out this week concerning a presentation and press release from Tim Barnett and Scripps colleagues presenting at the AAAS meeting (The Independent, John Fleck ,(and again) David Appell…etc). Why did this get so much attention given that there is no actual paper yet?
par Gavin Schmidt (traduit par Pierre Allemand)

Un grand nombre d’articles de presse et de commentaires sont sortis cette semaine concernant une présentation et un communiqué de presse de Tim Barnett, Scripps et collègues au congrès de l’AAAS (American Society for the Advancement of Science), (The Independent, John Fleck ,(et de nouveau ici) David Appell…etc. (NdT : sites en anglais). Pourquoi cela a-t-il donné lieu à autant d’attention, alors qu’aucune publication n’est encore disponible ?

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Dummies guide to the latest “Hockey Stick” controversy Guide pratique pour comprendre la dernière controverse sur la « crosse de hockey »

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by Gavin Schmidt and Caspar Amman

Due to popular demand, we have put together a ‘dummies guide’ which tries to describe what the actual issues are in the latest controversy, in language even our parents might understand. A pdf version is also available. More technical descriptions of the issues can be seen here and here.

This guide is in two parts, the first deals with the background to the technical issues raised by McIntyre and McKitrick (2005) (MM05), while the second part discusses the application of this to the original Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998) (MBH98) reconstruction. The wider climate science context is discussed here, and the relationship to other recent reconstructions (the ‘Hockey Team’) can be seen here.

NB. All the data that were used in MBH98 are freely available for download at ftp://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/pub/sdr/temp/nature/MANNETAL98/ (and also as supplementary data at Nature) along with a thorough description of the algorithm.

par Gavin Schmidt et Caspar Amman (traduit par Pierre Allemand)

Suite à la demande populaire, nous avons écrit un « guide pratique » qui essaie de décrire quels sont les problèmes débattus dans la dernière controverse sur la “crosse de hockey”, dans un langage que même nos parents peuvent comprendre. Des descriptions techniques complémentaires sur ces problèmes peuvent être trouvées ici et ici.

Ce guide comporte deux parties, la première concerne le fond des questions techniques soulevées par McIntyre and McKitrick (2005) (MM05), tandis que la seconde partie traite de ses applications à la reconstitution de Mann, Bradley et Hughes (1998) (MBH98). Le contexte plus large de la science du climat est discuté ici et les relations avec les récentes autres reconstitutions (« l’équipe de hockey ») sont traitées ici.

NB. Toutes les données utilisées dans le MBH98 sont librement téléchargeables sur ftp://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/pub/sdr/temp/nature/MANNETAL98/ (ainsi que des données supplémentaires dans Nature) et une description complète de l’algorithme).

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People in, people out

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This is just to note some personnel changes at RealClimate. Amy Clement is unfortunately too overcommitted to be able to participate as much as she would like, and so is dropping out of the team. She states: “I fully support what the contributors of RealClimate are doing. It is a real service to both the community of climate scientists and to the general public”. To balance that, we welcome aboard paleoceanographer Thibault de Garidel (Rutgers) , who some francophiles may have noticed has been helping organise the French translations of some of the posts. And of course, if there are any other scientists out there who’d like to contribute, we would love to hear from you.

Strange Bedfellows En Etrange Compagnie

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Here’s a curious observation. Some commentators who for years have been vocally decrying the IPCC consensus are lining up to support the ‘Ruddiman’ hypothesis. A respected paleoceanographer, Bill Ruddiman has recently argued that humans have been altering the level of important greenhouse gases since the dawn of agriculture (5 to 8000 years ago), and in so doing have prevented a new ice age from establishing itself. This intriguing idea is laid out in a couple of recent papers (Ruddiman, 2003; Ruddiman et al, 2005) and has received a fair degree of media attention (e.g. here, and here).


par Gavin Schmidt (traduit par Thibault de Garidel)

Voici une curieuse observation. Les mêmes commentateurs qui pendant des années ont décrié le consensus autour du GIEC s’alignent désormais pour soutenir l’hypothèse dite de ‘Ruddiman’. Bill Ruddiman, un paléocéanographe respecté, a en effet récemment suggéré que l’action humaine avait changé la concentration de certains gaz à effet de serre, depuis le développement de l’agriculture (il y a 5 à 8000 ans), empêchant ainsi la mise en place d’une nouvelle période glaciaire. Cette idée intrigante est présentée dans deux articles récents ( Ruddiman, 2003 ; Ruddiman et autres, 2005 ), et a suscité depuis une certaine attention des médias (voir par exemple ici , et ici ).
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