Our various graphics and model-observation comparisons have been updated with 2025 data. There are a few version updates that make some difference (particularly in sea ice extent), but the basic story is similar to last year. Feel free to comment and/or suggest changes for the future, including potential new comparisons.
CMIP3
Predicted Arctic sea ice trends over time
Over multiple generations of CMIP models Arctic sea ice trend predictions have gone from much too stable to about right. Why?
[Read more…] about Predicted Arctic sea ice trends over timeNot just another dot on the graph? Part II
Annual updates to the model-observation comparisons for 2023 are now complete. The comparisons encompass surface air temperatures, mid-troposphere temperatures (global and tropical, and ‘corrected’), sea surface temperatures, and stratospheric temperatures. In almost every case, the addition of the 2023 numbers was in line with the long term expectation from the models.
[Read more…] about Not just another dot on the graph? Part II