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CMIP3

Predicted Arctic sea ice trends over time

31 May 2025 by Gavin

Over multiple generations of CMIP models Arctic sea ice trend predictions have gone from much too stable to about right. Why?

[Read more…] about Predicted Arctic sea ice trends over time

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Model-Obs Comparisons Tagged With: Arctic amplification, CMIP3, CMIP5, CMIP6

Not just another dot on the graph? Part II

16 Jan 2024 by Gavin

Annual updates to the model-observation comparisons for 2023 are now complete. The comparisons encompass surface air temperatures, mid-troposphere temperatures (global and tropical, and ‘corrected’), sea surface temperatures, and stratospheric temperatures. In almost every case, the addition of the 2023 numbers was in line with the long term expectation from the models.

[Read more…] about Not just another dot on the graph? Part II

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, Model-Obs Comparisons, Oceans Tagged With: CMIP3, CMIP5, CMIP6, MSU, SAT, SSU, TMT

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