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Climate Science

Busy Week for Water Vapor

21 Nov 2005 by raypierre

It’s been a busy week for water vapor, and I have two recent papers to discuss. The first is the paper "Anthropogenic greenhouse forcing and strong water vapor feedback increase temperature in Europe" by Rolf Philipona et al. (GRL, 2005, subscription required for full text), which has attracted a certain amount of media attention. The overall goal of the paper is to understand, from a physical standpoint, why European temperatures have been increasing three times faster than the Northern Hemisphere average. It focuses on the changes between 1995 and 2002, over which time good surface radiation budget observations are available. The paper reports some results on the role of large scale circulation changes (which they conclude are minor) but I’ll concentrate on the results relating to water vapor.

[Read more…] about Busy Week for Water Vapor

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, Greenhouse gases

Climate Basics

19 Nov 2005 by rasmus

Recently, Oxford University launched a new initiative called Climate.Basics. This Internet site provides a nice explanation and simple illustrations on what is meant by ‘climate’ and how the climate system works. The Climate.Basics site is a collaboration with the climateprediction.net project, which is the world’s largest climate prediction experiment. We think this is quite good, but as always, let us know if you think something could be explained better

Filed Under: Climate Science

The False Objectivity of “Balance”

18 Nov 2005 by mike

We here at RC continue to be disappointed with the tendency for some journalistic outlets to favor so-called “balance” over accuracy in their treatment of politically-controversial scientific issues such as global climate change. While giving equal coverage to two opposing sides may seem appropriate in political discourse, it is manifestly inappropriate in discussions of science, where objective truths exist. In the case of climate change, a clear consensus exists among mainstream researchers that human influences on climate are already detectable, and that potentially far more substantial changes are likely to take place in the future if we continue to burn fossil fuels at current rates. There are only a handful of “contrarian” climate scientists who continue to dispute that consensus. To give these contrarians equal time or space in public discourse on climate change out of a sense of need for journalistic “balance” is as indefensible as, say, granting the Flat Earth Society an equal say with NASA in the design of a new space satellite. It’s plainly inappropriate. But it stubbornly persists nonetheless. [Read more…] about The False Objectivity of “Balance”

Filed Under: Climate Science, Reporting on climate

More satellite stuff

18 Nov 2005 by group

The November 17th issue of Science has an interesting exchange of letters between Christy and Spencer; Mears and Wentz; and Sherwood and Lanzante (ref here; subs required for substance). The context of this discussion is the tropospheric temperature record; see Et tu LT and The tropical lapse rate quandary for two RC posts that discuss the issue, and in particular three papers in the August 11th issue of Science.

[Read more…] about More satellite stuff

Filed Under: Climate Science, Instrumental Record

Framing of climate science

17 Nov 2005 by eric

There is an interesting article in this month’s Global Environmental Change journal. The paper, Climate of scepticism: US newspaper coverage of the science of climate change (subscription only at the moment) by L. Antilla, documents the way in which the mainstream media (at least in the U.S.) tends to present climate science as more controversial than it actually is. A major focus of the paper is an analysis of the way in which climate science is “framed” (in the journalistics sense of “highlighting certain aspects of a story so as promote a particular interpretation”). In a recent Scientific American article (here), a similar argument is made with respect to the health industry; in this case the writer, David Michaels, is quite blunt that the “framing” is the purposeful fomenting of doubt by powerful industry lobbyists, rather than innocent errors by naive journalists. Antilla doesn’t go so far, but she does give some striking examples, such as an Associated Press piece about the impact of soot on the albedo of snow, which AP titled “Scientists blame soot for global warming”. As if the title weren’t misleading enough, the article goes on to say that “Many scientists believe the burning of fossil fuels is causing an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, triggering … the greenhouse effect.” Whether purposeful, or merely due to careless writing, this kind of statement casts the science (and the opinion of scientists) as far more uncertain that it is in reality — in this case implying that there is doubt that CO2 levels are increasing, something which actually has zero uncertainty. [Read more…] about Framing of climate science

Filed Under: Climate Science, Reporting on climate

Update on 2005 temperatures

11 Nov 2005 by Gavin

Translations: (Français) (English)

Further to our post about whether 2005 will be a year of record warmth, Jim Hansen has put out a brief discussion on the Washington Post report and some of the subsequent discussion. One minor clarification to his statements is that the reporter involved (Juliet Eilperin) did in fact leave messages for the relevant people at GISS (including me) prior to publication, but sometimes people can just be difficult to track down. Oh….and for those who are counting, with the preliminary October data in, 2005 has pulled ahead of 1998 in both the GISS land based met. station index (0.76 to 0.73°C) and the GISS land-ocean index (0.59 to 0.58°C). All previous caveats still apply….

Filed Under: Climate Science, Instrumental Record

Lawson vs. the IPCC

9 Nov 2005 by Gavin

Nigel Lawson, one of Britain’s Chancellors of the Exchequer during the Thatcher Era (Secretary of the Treasury for those needing a US translation) and more recently known as the father of Nigella Lawson (a UK cooking diva), has weighed into the climate debate with a recent broadside calling for the abolition of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Based on a curious report by the UK House of Lords Economics Affairs committee (in which they made clear that they had no scientific expertise), Lawson demands that the only global scientific assessment process on climate change be shut down, and replaced with ….well what exactly? [Read more…] about Lawson vs. the IPCC

Filed Under: Climate Science, IPCC

Chaos and Climate

4 Nov 2005 by group

By James Annan and William Connolley

In this post, we will try to explain a little about chaos theory, and its relevance to our attempts to understand and forecast the climate system. The chaotic nature of atmospheric solutions of the Navier-Stokes equations for fluid flow has great impact on weather forecasting (which we discuss first), but the evidence suggests that it has much less importance for climate prediction.

[Read more…] about Chaos and Climate

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science

Shameless Self Promotion

28 Oct 2005 by group

Vote for RealClimate!

No, we’re not going to abandon our policy of steering clear of political commentary, but yes, you can nonetheless vote for us!

Some of you may have noticed the new logos up in the upper right hand corner of the RC webpage. As a followup to our selection last month for the “Science & Technology Web Awards 2005” by Scientific American, we are pleased to have now made it to the final round of Deutsche Welle’s 2005 Weblog Awards (for those of you not familiar with them, Deutsche Welle is sort of the German equivalent of Britain’s BBC World Service). [Read more…] about Shameless Self Promotion

Filed Under: Climate Science

Hockey sticks: Round 27

24 Oct 2005 by group

Two more teams in the seemingly endless jousting over the ‘hockey-stick’ have just made their entry onto the field. In the first two (of four) comments on the original McIntyre and McKitrick (2005) (MM05) paper in GRL, von Storch and Zorita, and Huybers have presented two distinct critiques of the work of M&M.

The two comments focus on the ‘PC normalisation’ issue raised in MM05 which we discussed previously. Specifically, von Storch and Zorita show that in a GCM model emulation of the Mann, Bradley and Hughes (MBH) method, changing the PC normalisation technique makes no difference to the eventual reconstruction (i.e. it is not the normalisation that creates the ‘hockeystick’), consistent with earlier conclusions. Huybers comments that neither of the two suggested normalisations are actually optimal, and proposes a third method which looks like it gives results halfway between MBH and MM05. However, given the von Storch result, this too is unlikely to matter in the final reconstruction. [Read more…] about Hockey sticks: Round 27

Filed Under: Climate Science, Paleoclimate

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