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Scafetta

The Scafetta Saga

21 Sep 2023 by Gavin

It has taken 17 months to get a comment published pointing out the obvious errors in the Scafetta (2022) paper in GRL.

Back in March 2022, Nicola Scafetta published a short paper in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) purporting to show through ‘advanced’ means that ‘all models with ECS > 3.0°C overestimate the observed global surface warming’ (as defined by ERA5). We (me, Gareth Jones and John Kennedy) wrote a note up within a couple of days pointing out how wrongheaded the reasoning was and how the results did not stand up to scrutiny.

[Read more…] about The Scafetta Saga

References

  1. N. Scafetta, "Advanced Testing of Low, Medium, and High ECS CMIP6 GCM Simulations Versus ERA5‐T2m", Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 49, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097716

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Greenhouse gases, Instrumental Record, Model-Obs Comparisons, Scientific practice, skeptics Tagged With: CMIP6, greenhouse warming, Scafetta

Scafetta comes back for more

10 Oct 2022 by Gavin

A new paper from Scafetta and it’s almost as bad as the last one.

Back in March, we outlined how a model-observations comparison paper in GRL by Nicola Scafetta (Scafetta, 2022a) got wrong basically everything that one could get wrong (the uncertainty in the observations, the internal variability in the models, the statistical basis for comparisons – the lot!). Now he’s back with a new paper in a different journal (Scafetta, 2022b) that could be seen as trying to patch the holes in the first one, but while he makes some progress, he now adds some new errors while attempting CPR on his original conclusions.

[Read more…] about Scafetta comes back for more

References

  1. N. Scafetta, "Advanced Testing of Low, Medium, and High ECS CMIP6 GCM Simulations Versus ERA5‐T2m", Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 49, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097716
  2. N. Scafetta, "CMIP6 GCM ensemble members versus global surface temperatures", Climate Dynamics, vol. 60, pp. 3091-3120, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06493-w

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, El Nino, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, Scientific practice, statistics Tagged With: CMIP6, misinformation, Scafetta

Issues and Errors in a new Scafetta paper

30 Mar 2022 by Gavin

Earlier this week, a new paper appeared in GRL by Nicola Scafetta (Scafetta, 2022) which purported to conclude that the CMIP6 models with medium or high climate sensitivity (higher than 3ºC) were not consistent with recent historical temperature changes. Since there have been a number of papers already on this topic, notably Tokarska et al (2020), which did not come to such a conclusion, it is worthwhile to investigate where Scafetta’s result comes from. Unfortunately, it appears to emerge from a mis-appreciation of what is in the CMIP6 archive, an inappropriate statistical test, and a total neglect of observational uncertainty and internal variability.

[Read more…] about Issues and Errors in a new Scafetta paper

References

  1. N. Scafetta, "Advanced Testing of Low, Medium, and High ECS CMIP6 GCM Simulations Versus ERA5‐T2m", Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 49, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097716
  2. K.B. Tokarska, M.B. Stolpe, S. Sippel, E.M. Fischer, C.J. Smith, F. Lehner, and R. Knutti, "Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models", Science Advances, vol. 6, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, Model-Obs Comparisons, Scientific practice Tagged With: CMIP6, Scafetta

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