• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

RealClimate

Climate science from climate scientists...

  • Start here
  • Model-Observation Comparisons
  • Miscellaneous Climate Graphics
  • Surface temperature graphics
You are here: Home / Archives for Gavin

about Gavin Schmidt

Gavin Schmidt is a climate modeler, working for NASA and with Columbia University.

About Gavin

“But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”

21 Sep 2025 by Gavin 130 Comments

Almost two decades ago, some scientists predicted that Arctic summer sea ice would ‘soon’ disappear. These predictions were mentioned by Al Gore and got a lot of press. However, they did not gain wide acceptance in the scientific community, and were swiftly disproven. Unsurprisingly, this still comes up a lot. Time for a deeper dive into what happened and why…

[Read more…] about “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, Scientific practice Tagged With: Arctic, predictions, sea ice

Time and Tide Gauges wait for no Voortman

18 Sep 2025 by Gavin 58 Comments

Here we go again. An obscure, methodologically poor, paper published with little to no review makes a convenient point and gets elevated into supposedly ‘blockbusting’ science by the merchants of bullshit, sorry, doubt. Actual scientists drop everything to respond, but not before the (convenient) nonsense has spread widely. Rebuttals are written and submitted, but by the time they are published everyone has moved on.

[Read more…] about Time and Tide Gauges wait for no Voortman

Filed Under: Climate Science, Featured Story, In the News, Instrumental Record, Oceans, Sea level rise, skeptics Tagged With: DOE, Endangerment Finding, sea level rise

DOE CWG Report “Moot”?

10 Sep 2025 by Gavin 119 Comments

Somewhat breaking news. A court filing (from 9/4) from DOE has noted that the Climate Working Group has been disbanded (as of 9/3). This was done to make the EDF/UCS lawsuit moot, but it also means that DOE is withdrawing the report, no-one will respond appropriately to the comments submitted, and (possibly) it becomes irrelevant for the EPA reconsideration of the Endangerment Finding.

What a farce.

Update: Via Andy Revkin, the EDF/UCS’s blistering response to the DOE filing. Pass the popcorn.

Filed Under: Climate impacts, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, IPCC, Model-Obs Comparisons, Scientific practice

Climate Scientists response to DOE report

2 Sep 2025 by Gavin 71 Comments

As we’ve mentioned, Andrew Dessler and Robert Kopp have been coordinating a scientific peer review of the DOW ‘CWG’ Critique of Climate Science. It is now out.

[Read more…] about Climate Scientists response to DOE report

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Carbon cycle, Climate impacts, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Greenhouse gases, Hurricanes, Instrumental Record, IPCC, Model-Obs Comparisons, Scientific practice, Sea level rise, Sun-earth connections Tagged With: CWG, DOE, Endangerment Finding

Ocean circulation going South?

13 Jul 2025 by Gavin

Some intriguing new measurements of salinity in the oceans around Antarctica have set off reams of sensationalist speculations. Maybe some context is helpful…

[Read more…] about Ocean circulation going South?

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, hydrological cycle, Instrumental Record, Oceans Tagged With: salinity, sea ice, Southern Ocean

Melange à Trois

8 Jul 2025 by Gavin

In honor of the revelation today, that Koonin, Christy and Spencer have been made Special Government Employees at the Dept. of Energy, we present a quick round up of our commentary on the caliber of their arguments we’ve posted here over the last decade or so.

TL;DR? The arguments are not very good.

[Read more…] about Melange à Trois

Filed Under: Climate Science, Featured Story, In the News, Instrumental Record, Model-Obs Comparisons, Scientific practice Tagged With: John Christy, MSU, Roy Spencer, Steve Koonin

Predicted Arctic sea ice trends over time

31 May 2025 by Gavin

Over multiple generations of CMIP models Arctic sea ice trend predictions have gone from much too stable to about right. Why?

[Read more…] about Predicted Arctic sea ice trends over time

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Model-Obs Comparisons Tagged With: Arctic amplification, CMIP3, CMIP5, CMIP6

WMO: Update on 2023/4 Anomalies

20 Mar 2025 by Gavin

The WMO released its (now) annual state of the climate report this week. As well as the (now) standard set of graphs related to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, rising temperatures, reducing glacier mass, etc., Zeke Hausfather and I wrote up a short synthesis on the contributions to recent temperature anomalies.

[Read more…] about WMO: Update on 2023/4 Anomalies

Filed Under: Aerosols, Climate modelling, Climate Science, El Nino, Featured Story, Instrumental Record Tagged With: 2023, 2024

Comparison Update 2024

27 Jan 2025 by Gavin

One more dot on the graphs for our annual model-observations comparisons updates. Given how extraordinary the last two years have been, there are a few highlights to note.

[Read more…] about Comparison Update 2024

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, Model-Obs Comparisons

2024 Hindsight

11 Jan 2025 by Gavin

To no-one’s surprise 2024 was the warmest year on record – and by quite a clear margin.

[Read more…] about 2024 Hindsight

Filed Under: Climate Science, El Nino, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, IPCC Tagged With: 1.5ºC, MSU

  • Page 1
  • Page 2
  • Page 3
  • Interim pages omitted …
  • Page 40
  • Go to Next Page »

Primary Sidebar

Search

Search for:

Email Notification

get new posts sent to you automatically (free)
Loading

Recent Posts

  • Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Time and Tide Gauges wait for no Voortman
  • Lil’ NAS Express
  • DOE CWG Report “Moot”?
  • Climate Scientists response to DOE report

Our Books

Book covers
This list of books since 2005 (in reverse chronological order) that we have been involved in, accompanied by the publisher’s official description, and some comments of independent reviewers of the work.
All Books >>

Recent Comments

  • Russell Seitz on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Kevin McKinney on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Kevin McKinney on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Kevin McKinney on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • MA Rodger on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • MA Rodger on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • MA Rodger on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Barton Paul Levenson on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Barton Paul Levenson on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Silvia Leahu-Aluas on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Pete best on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Susan Anderson on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Mo Yunus on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Geoff Miell on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Russell Seitz on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Mo Yunus on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Mo Yunus on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Mo Yunus on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Piotr on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Atomsk's Sanakan on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Tomáš Kalisz on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Kevin McKinney on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Kevin McKinney on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Kevin McKinney on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • John Pollack on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Mal Adapted [also spelled "no mo' dodos"] on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Tomáš Kalisz on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • Piotr on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”
  • MA Rodger on Unforced variations: Oct 2025
  • Russell Seitz on “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”

Footer

ABOUT

  • About
  • Translations
  • Privacy Policy
  • Contact Page
  • Login

DATA AND GRAPHICS

  • Data Sources
  • Model-Observation Comparisons
  • Surface temperature graphics
  • Miscellaneous Climate Graphics

INDEX

  • Acronym index
  • Index
  • Archives
  • Contributors

Realclimate Stats

1,383 posts

11 pages

247,226 comments

Copyright © 2025 · RealClimate is a commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists for the interested public and journalists.