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about Gavin Schmidt

Gavin Schmidt is a climate modeler, working for NASA and with Columbia University.

About Gavin

Site updates etc.

27 Nov 2025 by Gavin 1 Comment

Hi folks, just a quick maintenance notice to say that we are upgrading the blog to a more recent version of PHP (which is the code that underlies WordPress) (going from version 7.4 to 8.3). Unfortunately, this has caused problems for two of the older plugins we use, Kcite (which provides the inline links to the references from the DOI code), and Language Switcher (which we used a lot at the beginning to provide translations). Neither are actively maintained by their original coders (and we have updated some of the functionality in any case).

As of today, we’ve had to turn them off – and so the reference lists are not being generated and the languages on older posts will mixed up. If any of our readers have some relevant skill sets, we’d be happy to work with them to debug this issue! Let us know in the comments. Additionally, feel free to make suggestions for other improvements – the more specific the better!

Hopefully, we will resolve the issues soon. Thanks for your continued support and patience.

Update (Nov 28): I got the Kcite plugin working again (follow the link for details and remaining issues).

Filed Under: Climate Science Tagged With: Maintenance

“But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”

21 Sep 2025 by Gavin

Almost two decades ago, some scientists predicted that Arctic summer sea ice would ‘soon’ disappear. These predictions were mentioned by Al Gore and got a lot of press. However, they did not gain wide acceptance in the scientific community, and were swiftly disproven. Unsurprisingly, this still comes up a lot. Time for a deeper dive into what happened and why…

[Read more…] about “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, Scientific practice Tagged With: Arctic, predictions, sea ice

Time and Tide Gauges wait for no Voortman

18 Sep 2025 by Gavin

Here we go again. An obscure, methodologically poor, paper published with little to no review makes a convenient point and gets elevated into supposedly ‘blockbusting’ science by the merchants of bullshit, sorry, doubt. Actual scientists drop everything to respond, but not before the (convenient) nonsense has spread widely. Rebuttals are written and submitted, but by the time they are published everyone has moved on.

[Read more…] about Time and Tide Gauges wait for no Voortman

Filed Under: Climate Science, Featured Story, In the News, Instrumental Record, Oceans, Sea level rise, skeptics Tagged With: DOE, Endangerment Finding, sea level rise

DOE CWG Report “Moot”?

10 Sep 2025 by Gavin

Somewhat breaking news. A court filing (from 9/4) from DOE has noted that the Climate Working Group has been disbanded (as of 9/3). This was done to make the EDF/UCS lawsuit moot, but it also means that DOE is withdrawing the report, no-one will respond appropriately to the comments submitted, and (possibly) it becomes irrelevant for the EPA reconsideration of the Endangerment Finding.

What a farce.

Update: Via Andy Revkin, the EDF/UCS’s blistering response to the DOE filing. Pass the popcorn.

Filed Under: Climate impacts, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, IPCC, Model-Obs Comparisons, Scientific practice

Climate Scientists response to DOE report

2 Sep 2025 by Gavin

As we’ve mentioned, Andrew Dessler and Robert Kopp have been coordinating a scientific peer review of the DOW ‘CWG’ Critique of Climate Science. It is now out.

[Read more…] about Climate Scientists response to DOE report

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Carbon cycle, Climate impacts, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Greenhouse gases, Hurricanes, Instrumental Record, IPCC, Model-Obs Comparisons, Scientific practice, Sea level rise, Sun-earth connections Tagged With: CWG, DOE, Endangerment Finding

Ocean circulation going South?

13 Jul 2025 by Gavin

Some intriguing new measurements of salinity in the oceans around Antarctica have set off reams of sensationalist speculations. Maybe some context is helpful…

[Read more…] about Ocean circulation going South?

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, hydrological cycle, Instrumental Record, Oceans Tagged With: salinity, sea ice, Southern Ocean

Melange à Trois

8 Jul 2025 by Gavin

In honor of the revelation today, that Koonin, Christy and Spencer have been made Special Government Employees at the Dept. of Energy, we present a quick round up of our commentary on the caliber of their arguments we’ve posted here over the last decade or so.

TL;DR? The arguments are not very good.

[Read more…] about Melange à Trois

Filed Under: Climate Science, Featured Story, In the News, Instrumental Record, Model-Obs Comparisons, Scientific practice Tagged With: John Christy, MSU, Roy Spencer, Steve Koonin

Predicted Arctic sea ice trends over time

31 May 2025 by Gavin

Over multiple generations of CMIP models Arctic sea ice trend predictions have gone from much too stable to about right. Why?

[Read more…] about Predicted Arctic sea ice trends over time

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Model-Obs Comparisons Tagged With: Arctic amplification, CMIP3, CMIP5, CMIP6

WMO: Update on 2023/4 Anomalies

20 Mar 2025 by Gavin

The WMO released its (now) annual state of the climate report this week. As well as the (now) standard set of graphs related to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, rising temperatures, reducing glacier mass, etc., Zeke Hausfather and I wrote up a short synthesis on the contributions to recent temperature anomalies.

[Read more…] about WMO: Update on 2023/4 Anomalies

Filed Under: Aerosols, Climate modelling, Climate Science, El Nino, Featured Story, Instrumental Record Tagged With: 2023, 2024

Comparison Update 2024

27 Jan 2025 by Gavin

One more dot on the graphs for our annual model-observations comparisons updates. Given how extraordinary the last two years have been, there are a few highlights to note.

[Read more…] about Comparison Update 2024

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, Model-Obs Comparisons

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