Climate science from climate scientists...
This month’s open thread on climate topics. The annual ranking horse race is in full swing, discussions of extreme weather abound, Arctic sea ice is reaching it’s annual minimum, and the future of evidence-based policy making seems dim. Oh well.
Confirmation bias and a profound lack of curiosity mark the latest ABC (Anything But Carbon) contrapalooza in DC this week and a decade-old albedo error trips them up.
[Read more…] about A reflection on reflectionWe previously highlighted Roy Spencer’s poor practices in comparing models with observations, but we’ve now dug down a little deeper, and it’s not pretty.
[Read more…] about Spencer’s Shenanigans: Part IIGuest commentary from Nathan Lenssen (Colorado School of Mines)
A new analysis of historical temperatures suggests that things are getting warmer faster, but what does it mean for the future?
[Read more…] about How robust is our accelerometer?For the first time, the Federal Judicial Center (FJC) commissioned a chapter on climate science for the manual they put out (with the NASEM) for judges, the Reference on Scientific Evidence (4th Edition). This week, a month after it was published, they pulled the chapter out after being pressured by 27 Republican Attorneys General. You can nonetheless read it here.
[Read more…] about The Climate Science reference they don’t want Judges to readAt a public event debating the DOE CWG report, Steve Koonin embarrasses himself further.
[Read more…] about Koonin’s Continuing CalumniesOur various graphics and model-observation comparisons have been updated with 2025 data. There are a few version updates that make some difference (particularly in sea ice extent), but the basic story is similar to last year. Feel free to comment and/or suggest changes for the future, including potential new comparisons.
This month’s open thread. We’re not great ones for New Year’s resolutions, but let’s try. How about we resolve to stay substantive, refrain from abusing one another, and maintaining a generosity of spirit when interacting with others?
Lots of things get updated in January and we’ll try and keep up, though possibly with less fanfare than in previous years. In other news, we await the (supposedly imminent) release of a new “National Climate Assessment”, and the (supposedly imminent) engagement of the authors of the DOE ‘climate report’ with the extensive critiques they received. Meanwhile CMIP7 has started, and we expect results to trickle into the databases throughout the year – dig into some of the literature to get a sense of what will change (better models, improved forcings, etc.).
Eppure si riscaldi.
The Paris Agreement temperature limits are a little ambiguous and knowing where we are is tricky.
[Read more…] about 1.5ºC and all thatAlmost two decades ago, some scientists predicted that Arctic summer sea ice would ‘soon’ disappear. These predictions were mentioned by Al Gore and got a lot of press. However, they did not gain wide acceptance in the scientific community, and were swiftly disproven. Unsurprisingly, this still comes up a lot. Time for a deeper dive into what happened and why…
[Read more…] about “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”