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Unforced variations: May 2025

1 May 2025 by group 290 Comments

This month’s open thread. Note that the Nenana Ice challenge break up date graph has been updated, and the Yukon river ice break up is imminent (or may have already happened! [Update – it already had]). Please stay focused on climate issues.

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread, Solutions

Unforced Variations: Apr 2025

1 Apr 2025 by group

This month’s open thread for climate topics. Please try to stay focused on climate instead of generic (and tedious) political sniping.

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread, Solutions

We need NOAA now more than ever

12 Mar 2025 by group

Guest commentary by Robert Hart, Kerry Emanuel, & Lance Bosart

Protester holding a homemade "Defend NOAA" sign in Washington Square. Credit: Gavin Schmidt

The National Weather Service (NWS) and its parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), delivers remarkable value to the taxpayers. This efficiency can be demonstrated by its enormous return on investment. For example, the NWS costs only several dollars per citizen to operate each year, yet results in an estimated 10-100 times larger financial return that includes: improved citizen preparedness, improved transportation efficiency and safety, increased private sector profits, improved disaster prevention and mitigation, and impressive scientific research innovation that is significantly also contributed to by other related federal agencies, the private sector, and the academic research community.

Recent NWS initiatives have even more directly connected weather and ocean observations and forecasts to emergency preparation and public impact. To quote a 2019 study referenced below, “Partnership with the NWS has revolutionized this Emergency Management community from on that reacts to events to one that proactively prepares and stays ahead of the extreme events.” The societal benefits of reasonably predicting the future cannot be understated, and such prediction and resulting benefits were unimaginable only 75 years ago.

Critical taxpayer-funded investments over the past decades have led to greatly improved weather forecast models, observations from the ocean, ground, aircraft, and space, and theoretical understanding through scientific research. These all have had an enormous impact on lives and property. The forecasts and associated critical watches and warnings we see every day on television, the internet, or phone apps could not be possible without NOAA and the NWS. It is estimated that the tax revenue generated from the private sector using NOAA data and services easily pays for the entire cost of the NWS.

Those who remember weather forecasts from the 1970s through 1980s can appreciate these dramatic evolutionary improvements given how inferior those forecasts were compared to today. Going further back, landfalling hurricanes in the first half of that century often came with no warning. If you read newspaper front pages from the mornings of September 7, 1900, or September 21, 1938, you will find there is no mention of the historic and catastrophic events about to unfold only hours later. This would be unthinkable today given the scientific investments we have paid for.

These massive improvements extend beyond hurricane (and also snowstorm) forecasting and preparedness. Tornado warning lead time has also improved markedly during the same time period. Casualty rates from tornadoes have not increased despite a very rapid increase in population. At minimum, hundreds of thousands of people are alive today who would not be without our investments in NOAA and NWS.

The advent of skillful weather forecasting, along with the increased preparedness it allows, remains a landmark achievement of not only this country but of the human race. There are few other fields in the sciences where skillful prediction not only has had immense impact on our society, but is even possible. We should be extraordinarily proud of this achievement.

The current expulsion of primarily younger NOAA employees without cause and with disturbingly short notice is cruel to them personally and professionally. The youngest employees are the future of any organization, government or otherwise, and bring with them unique energy, skills, and ideas. Every government organization should strive to become more efficient, and must be subjected to careful oversight, since taxpayer funding is precious and entrusted to the government by the people. However, the instrument of wise oversight is the scalpel, not the chainsaw. The recent seemingly arbitrary and capricious reductions, notably made without Congressional oversight, are seriously jeopardizing the future of the country and more generally the property and lives of hundreds of millions of tax-paying families who have invested in these truly remarkable achievements over many decades.

References:

“National Weather Service Enterprise Analysis Report. Findings on changes in the private weather
industry”,
2017.

“Evolving the National Weather Service to Build a Weather-Ready Nation: Connecting
Observations, Forecasts, and Warnings to Decision-Makers through Impact-Based Decision
Support Services”,
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, October 2019.

“Using the National Weather Service’s impact-based decision support services to prepare for
extreme winter storms
“, Journal of Emergency Management, November/December 2019.

“Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) and Socioeconomic Impacts of Winter Storms”,
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, May 2020.

“Communicating Forecast Uncertainty (CoFU) 2: Replication and Extension of a Survey of the US
Public’s Sources, Perceptions, Uses, and Values for Weather Information.”
American
Meteorological Society Policy Program Study, September 2024.

“The Social Value of Hurricane Forecasts”, SSRN Journal, December 2024.

Reprint from the Daily Camera

Filed Under: Climate Science, Featured Story, Hurricanes, Instrumental Record, Scientific practice, Sea level rise Tagged With: NOAA, NWS

Unforced Variations: Mar 2025

1 Mar 2025 by group

This month’s open thread on climate topics. Despite everything going on, please avoid generic political arguments – there are many other places on line for that. Impacts on climate science or actions from the layoffs in the US federal government are, however, very much on topic.

Filed Under: Climate Science, climate services, Open thread, Solutions

Unforced Variations: Feb 2025

3 Feb 2025 by group

This month’s open thread on climate-related topics.

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread, Solutions

Unforced Variations: Jan 2025

1 Jan 2025 by group

This month’s open thread on climate topics. Please remember to be substantive, respectful and vaguely on topic.

Note that we’ll have an update to the various observational datasets after Jan 10th, and hopefully an update to all the model-observation comparisons the week following (depending on other things not getting in the way).

Happy New Year to you all! (Our 20th!).

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread, Solutions

Unforced Variations: Dec 2024

30 Nov 2024 by group

This month’s open thread on *climate* topics. Obviously, last month’s events lent themselves to broader discussions, but this month (and going forward), we remind you that comments have to be climate-related.

Note too that there are plenty of dying websites where you can troll to your heart’s content and post tedious partisan talking points, but here they will be unceremoniously deleted. Similarly, self-indulgent and repetitive comments to make the point that everyone is an deluded idiot except you, will also be binned.

Be substantive, be relevant, be concise, and most of all, be nice.

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread, Solutions

Unforced variations: Nov 2024

2 Nov 2024 by group

This month’s open thread on climate change topics. How are we in November already? And why is it still so warm… ?

Anyway, please stay on topic and avoid insulting other commenters.

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread, Solutions

Unforced Variations: Oct 2024

1 Oct 2024 by group

This month’s open thread for climate topics. Please stay vaguely on topic and do not abuse other commenters.

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread, Solutions

Unforced Variations: Sep 2024

1 Sep 2024 by group

This month’s open thread on climate topics. Try to be constructive!

Filed Under: Climate Science, Open thread, Solutions

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