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Climate modelling

“But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”

21 Sep 2025 by Gavin 208 Comments

Almost two decades ago, some scientists predicted that Arctic summer sea ice would ‘soon’ disappear. These predictions were mentioned by Al Gore and got a lot of press. However, they did not gain wide acceptance in the scientific community, and were swiftly disproven. Unsurprisingly, this still comes up a lot. Time for a deeper dive into what happened and why…

[Read more…] about “But you said the ice was going to disappear in 10 years!”

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, Scientific practice Tagged With: Arctic, predictions, sea ice

DOE CWG Report “Moot”?

10 Sep 2025 by Gavin 119 Comments

Somewhat breaking news. A court filing (from 9/4) from DOE has noted that the Climate Working Group has been disbanded (as of 9/3). This was done to make the EDF/UCS lawsuit moot, but it also means that DOE is withdrawing the report, no-one will respond appropriately to the comments submitted, and (possibly) it becomes irrelevant for the EPA reconsideration of the Endangerment Finding.

What a farce.

Update: Via Andy Revkin, the EDF/UCS’s blistering response to the DOE filing. Pass the popcorn.

Filed Under: Climate impacts, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, IPCC, Model-Obs Comparisons, Scientific practice

Climate Scientists response to DOE report

2 Sep 2025 by Gavin 71 Comments

As we’ve mentioned, Andrew Dessler and Robert Kopp have been coordinating a scientific peer review of the DOW ‘CWG’ Critique of Climate Science. It is now out.

[Read more…] about Climate Scientists response to DOE report

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Carbon cycle, Climate impacts, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Greenhouse gases, Hurricanes, Instrumental Record, IPCC, Model-Obs Comparisons, Scientific practice, Sea level rise, Sun-earth connections Tagged With: CWG, DOE, Endangerment Finding

Critiques of the ‘Critical Review’

14 Aug 2025 by group 285 Comments

The first somewhat comprehensive reviews of the DOE critical review are now coming online.

[Read more…] about Critiques of the ‘Critical Review’

Filed Under: Climate impacts, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Communicating Climate, Featured Story, Greenhouse gases, In the News, Instrumental Record, Model-Obs Comparisons, Reporting on climate, skeptics Tagged With: climate change, DOE, Endangerment Finding, EPA

The Endangerment of the Endangerment Finding?

29 Jul 2025 by group

The EPA, along with the “Climate Working Group” (CWG) of usual suspects (plus Judith Curry and Ross McKitrick) at DOE, have just put out a document for public comment their attempt to rescind the 2009 Endangerment Finding for greenhouse gas emissions.

[Read more…] about The Endangerment of the Endangerment Finding?

Filed Under: Climate impacts, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Greenhouse gases, In the News, Instrumental Record, IPCC, Model-Obs Comparisons, Reporting on climate Tagged With: DOE, Endangerment Finding, EPA

Ocean circulation going South?

13 Jul 2025 by Gavin

Some intriguing new measurements of salinity in the oceans around Antarctica have set off reams of sensationalist speculations. Maybe some context is helpful…

[Read more…] about Ocean circulation going South?

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, hydrological cycle, Instrumental Record, Oceans Tagged With: salinity, sea ice, Southern Ocean

Predicted Arctic sea ice trends over time

31 May 2025 by Gavin

Over multiple generations of CMIP models Arctic sea ice trend predictions have gone from much too stable to about right. Why?

[Read more…] about Predicted Arctic sea ice trends over time

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Model-Obs Comparisons Tagged With: Arctic amplification, CMIP3, CMIP5, CMIP6

WMO: Update on 2023/4 Anomalies

20 Mar 2025 by Gavin

The WMO released its (now) annual state of the climate report this week. As well as the (now) standard set of graphs related to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, rising temperatures, reducing glacier mass, etc., Zeke Hausfather and I wrote up a short synthesis on the contributions to recent temperature anomalies.

[Read more…] about WMO: Update on 2023/4 Anomalies

Filed Under: Aerosols, Climate modelling, Climate Science, El Nino, Featured Story, Instrumental Record Tagged With: 2023, 2024

Climate change in Africa

18 Mar 2025 by rasmus

While there have been some recent set-backs within science and climate research and disturbing news about NOAA, there is also continuing efforts on responding to climate change. During my travels to Mozambique and Ghana, I could sense a real appreciation for knowledge, and an eagerness to learn how to calculate risks connected to climate change. 

[Read more…] about Climate change in Africa

Filed Under: Climate impacts, Climate modelling, Climate Science, climate services, Communicating Climate, downscaling, Featured Story

Comparison Update 2024

27 Jan 2025 by Gavin

One more dot on the graphs for our annual model-observations comparisons updates. Given how extraordinary the last two years have been, there are a few highlights to note.

[Read more…] about Comparison Update 2024

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, Model-Obs Comparisons

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