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Climate modelling

WMO: Update on 2023/4 Anomalies

20 Mar 2025 by Gavin 117 Comments

The WMO released its (now) annual state of the climate report this week. As well as the (now) standard set of graphs related to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, rising temperatures, reducing glacier mass, etc., Zeke Hausfather and I wrote up a short synthesis on the contributions to recent temperature anomalies.

[Read more…] about WMO: Update on 2023/4 Anomalies

Filed Under: Aerosols, Climate modelling, Climate Science, El Nino, Featured Story, Instrumental Record Tagged With: 2023, 2024

Climate change in Africa

18 Mar 2025 by rasmus 18 Comments

While there have been some recent set-backs within science and climate research and disturbing news about NOAA, there is also continuing efforts on responding to climate change. During my travels to Mozambique and Ghana, I could sense a real appreciation for knowledge, and an eagerness to learn how to calculate risks connected to climate change. 

[Read more…] about Climate change in Africa

Filed Under: Climate impacts, Climate modelling, Climate Science, climate services, Communicating Climate, downscaling, Featured Story

Comparison Update 2024

27 Jan 2025 by Gavin

One more dot on the graphs for our annual model-observations comparisons updates. Given how extraordinary the last two years have been, there are a few highlights to note.

[Read more…] about Comparison Update 2024

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, Model-Obs Comparisons

¡AI Caramba!

28 Dec 2024 by Gavin

Bart Simpson seeing a ChatGPT logo and saying "AI Caramba!".

Rapid progress in the use of machine learning for weather and climate models is evident almost everywhere, but can we distinguish between real advances and vaporware?

[Read more…] about ¡AI Caramba!

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story Tagged With: AI/ML, CMIP7, Machine Learning

Operationalizing Climate Science

17 Nov 2024 by Gavin

There is a need to make climate science more agile and more responsive, and that means moving (some of it) from research to operations.

[Read more…] about Operationalizing Climate Science

Filed Under: Aerosols, Climate impacts, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Featured Story, Greenhouse gases, Instrumental Record, IPCC Tagged With: CMIP6, CMIP7

Cold extremes do in fact decrease under global warming

6 Oct 2024 by Gavin

The title of this post might seem like a truism, but for about a decade some people have claimed the opposite, and many people have spent much time and effort trying to understand why. Much of that effort was wasted.

[Read more…] about Cold extremes do in fact decrease under global warming

Filed Under: Arctic and Antarctic, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Instrumental Record Tagged With: Arctic amplification, extreme events, replication, reproduction

Phantastic Job!

19 Sep 2024 by Gavin

A truly impressive paper was published this week with a new reconstruction of global temperatures over the last ~500 million years.

[Read more…] about Phantastic Job!

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, Paleoclimate Tagged With: Phanerozoic

Oh My, Oh Miocene!

28 Aug 2024 by Gavin

A recent paper suggested that ‘climate sensitivity’ derived from a new paleo-CO2 record is around 7.2ºC (for equilibrium climate sensitivity ECS) and ~13.9ºC (Earth System Sensitivity – ESS) for a doubling of CO2. Some press has suggested that this means that “Earth’s Temperature Could Increase by 25 Degrees” (F). Huge if true! Fortunately these numbers should not be taken at face value, but we need to dig into the subtleties to see why.

[Read more…] about Oh My, Oh Miocene!

Filed Under: Carbon cycle, Climate modelling, Climate Science, Greenhouse gases, Paleoclimate Tagged With: ECS, ESS, Miocene, paleo-CO2, replication

The need for pluralism in climate modelling

24 Aug 2024 by group

How should we allocate resources for climate modelling if the goal is to improve climate-related decisions? Higher resolution, machine learning and/or storylines? A call for a deeper discussion on how we should develop the climate modelling toolbox.

Guest post by Marina Baldissera Pacchetti, Julie Jebeile and Erica Thompson

[Read more…] about The need for pluralism in climate modelling

Filed Under: Climate modelling, Climate Science, climate services, Solutions Tagged With: CMIP6, GCMs, km-scale, Machine Learning

New journal: Nature 2023?

11 May 2024 by Gavin

[Last update Dec 6, 2024] There were a number of media reports today [May 11, 2024] related to Yuan et al. (2024), for instance, New Scientist, The Guardian etc. However, this is really just the beginning of what is likely to be a bit of a cottage industry in the next few months relating to possible causes/influences on the extreme temperatures seen in 2023. So to help people keep track, we’ll maintain a list here to focus discussions. Additionally, we’ll extract out the key results (such as the reported radiative forcing) as a guide to how this will all eventually get reconciled.

[Read more…] about New journal: Nature 2023?

References

  1. T. Yuan, H. Song, L. Oreopoulos, R. Wood, H. Bian, K. Breen, M. Chin, H. Yu, D. Barahona, K. Meyer, and S. Platnick, "Abrupt reduction in shipping emission as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock produces substantial radiative warming", Communications Earth & Environment, vol. 5, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01442-3

Filed Under: Aerosols, Climate modelling, Climate Science, El Nino, Featured Story, Instrumental Record, Oceans, Sun-earth connections Tagged With: 2023, marine shipping

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